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On January 25 2021 05:25 Nevuk wrote:
My understanding is that the 2022 Senate map is extremely bad for Republicans - if democrats get another 4-5 seats, then I doubt the filibuster exists.
The senate majority only matters if they also hold the house in 2022 which is very unlikely given they lost seats in 2020 and will almost certainly have a repeat of 2010.
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If trump seriously makes a third party it would be the greatest thing ever for the dems. Guarenteed wins in every election for a decade.
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On January 25 2021 06:53 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2021 05:25 Nevuk wrote:
My understanding is that the 2022 Senate map is extremely bad for Republicans - if democrats get another 4-5 seats, then I doubt the filibuster exists. The senate majority only matters if they also hold the house in 2022 which is very unlikely given they lost seats in 2020 and will almost certainly have a repeat of 2010.
I'm not entirely sure about this. The demographics are very different in 2010 vs 2022.
The big disadvantage is that the incumbent tends to lose some house votes... But the bigger disadvantage in 2010 was that the democrats voting blocs always turned out at a lower rate than republicans. Since 2016, many of the demos who flipped to GOP were the lower turnout ones : uneducated white working class males. They're very hard to poll and are part of why 2018 polls were super accurate while 2020 were off significantly.
I also don't think we're going to see turnout fall down to 2010 levels for a long time (they were super low then). If it is 2018 or 2020 patterns then it is going to be either a blowout or nailbiter.
We will have a better idea about this topic in two years though - Trump's nutty acts recently are unprecedented.
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On January 25 2021 07:02 Sermokala wrote:
If trump seriously makes a third party it would be the greatest thing ever for the dems. Guarenteed wins in every election for a decade.
Which is why Trump has been using it as a threat against republicans. He's trying to make them think the decision is "either rule with Trump in 2024 or don't rule again for 12 years".
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The final price of riding a tiger is paid when you fall off.
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On January 25 2021 07:03 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2021 06:53 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On January 25 2021 05:25 Nevuk wrote:
My understanding is that the 2022 Senate map is extremely bad for Republicans - if democrats get another 4-5 seats, then I doubt the filibuster exists. The senate majority only matters if they also hold the house in 2022 which is very unlikely given they lost seats in 2020 and will almost certainly have a repeat of 2010. I'm not entirely sure about this. The demographics are very different in 2010 vs 2022. The big disadvantage is that the incumbent tends to lose some house votes... But the bigger disadvantage in 2010 was that the democrats voting blocs always turned out at a lower rate than republicans. Since 2016, many of the demos who flipped to GOP were the lower turnout ones : uneducated white working class males. They're very hard to poll and are part of why 2018 polls were super accurate while 2020 were off significantly. I also don't think we're going to see turnout fall down to 2010 levels for a long time (they were super low then). If it is 2018 or 2020 patterns then it is going to be either a blowout or nailbiter. We will have a better idea about this topic in two years though - Trump's nutty acts recently are unprecedented.
I'm not considering demographics. You've got a democratic party that includes leftists and neoliberals. Anything that passes will be hated by the party itself. You've also got Fox News or whatever the next thing is that will tell America how bad whatever they pass is just like the ACA for the next two years no matter what happens.
What do you think Biden and democrats do over the next two years that people rally behind to keep democrats in full control?
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On January 25 2021 08:26 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2021 07:03 Nevuk wrote:On January 25 2021 06:53 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On January 25 2021 05:25 Nevuk wrote:
My understanding is that the 2022 Senate map is extremely bad for Republicans - if democrats get another 4-5 seats, then I doubt the filibuster exists. The senate majority only matters if they also hold the house in 2022 which is very unlikely given they lost seats in 2020 and will almost certainly have a repeat of 2010. I'm not entirely sure about this. The demographics are very different in 2010 vs 2022. The big disadvantage is that the incumbent tends to lose some house votes... But the bigger disadvantage in 2010 was that the democrats voting blocs always turned out at a lower rate than republicans. Since 2016, many of the demos who flipped to GOP were the lower turnout ones : uneducated white working class males. They're very hard to poll and are part of why 2018 polls were super accurate while 2020 were off significantly. I also don't think we're going to see turnout fall down to 2010 levels for a long time (they were super low then). If it is 2018 or 2020 patterns then it is going to be either a blowout or nailbiter. We will have a better idea about this topic in two years though - Trump's nutty acts recently are unprecedented. I'm not considering demographics. You've got a democratic party that includes leftists and neoliberals. Anything that passes will be hated by the party itself. You've also got Fox News or whatever the next thing is that will tell America how bad whatever they pass is just like the ACA for the next two years no matter what happens. What do you think Biden and democrats do over the next two years that people rally behind to keep democrats in full control?
If Biden’s response to COVID has high approval, that’ll be huge. Then there’s minimum wage, which appears to be a big priority. Student loans also seem to be a priority. Just those 3 things basically guarantee keeping both chambers in 2022.
Edit: with Bernie being totally ready to do a bunch of stuff with budget reconciliation, what limitations does that leave? What stuff can’t be done that way?
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On January 25 2021 09:35 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2021 08:26 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On January 25 2021 07:03 Nevuk wrote:On January 25 2021 06:53 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On January 25 2021 05:25 Nevuk wrote:
My understanding is that the 2022 Senate map is extremely bad for Republicans - if democrats get another 4-5 seats, then I doubt the filibuster exists. The senate majority only matters if they also hold the house in 2022 which is very unlikely given they lost seats in 2020 and will almost certainly have a repeat of 2010. I'm not entirely sure about this. The demographics are very different in 2010 vs 2022. The big disadvantage is that the incumbent tends to lose some house votes... But the bigger disadvantage in 2010 was that the democrats voting blocs always turned out at a lower rate than republicans. Since 2016, many of the demos who flipped to GOP were the lower turnout ones : uneducated white working class males. They're very hard to poll and are part of why 2018 polls were super accurate while 2020 were off significantly. I also don't think we're going to see turnout fall down to 2010 levels for a long time (they were super low then). If it is 2018 or 2020 patterns then it is going to be either a blowout or nailbiter. We will have a better idea about this topic in two years though - Trump's nutty acts recently are unprecedented. I'm not considering demographics. You've got a democratic party that includes leftists and neoliberals. Anything that passes will be hated by the party itself. You've also got Fox News or whatever the next thing is that will tell America how bad whatever they pass is just like the ACA for the next two years no matter what happens. What do you think Biden and democrats do over the next two years that people rally behind to keep democrats in full control? If Biden’s response to COVID has high approval, that’ll be huge. Then there’s minimum wage, which appears to be a big priority. Student loans also seem to be a priority. Just those 3 things basically guarantee keeping both chambers in 2022. Edit: with Bernie being totally ready to do a bunch of stuff with budget reconciliation, what limitations does that leave? What stuff can’t be done that way?
I haven't seen any talk of minimum wage outside of increasing it for federal workers.
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GOP senator of my state (Ohio) very unexpectedly announced he was retiring and not running for re-election.
That's another bad sign for Trump's impeachment chances. Portman was the type of person he needs to have in his pocket : if Portman turns, then there really could be 17 Senators - he was only middle of the pack for likelihood to convict. Portman retiring lets him act however he wants at the trial and not care about primaries.
People are calling him a centrist Republican, but he's only a centrist in the sense that he's in the middle of the party - he's no moderate. Perfectly average, if you would.
His statement also mentions working across the aisle.
Keep an eye on senators up for re-election in 2024 or 2026 : primaries won't matter to them.
via NBC News correspondent
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Portman announcing his intent to not run again is a really big deal, that seat was basically his in perpetuity.
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What are the odds a Qanon-brand lunatic gets that seat?
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On January 26 2021 01:32 Zambrah wrote:
What are the odds a Qanon-brand lunatic gets that seat?
One of those types will certainly run, but whether or not they'll succeed is a tough call, especially given the uncertain events yet to unfold. Keep in mind that Sherrod Brown, the other Ohio Senator, has reliably won reelection for a while now, if the cities turn out it'll be difficult for Republicans to force through a nutjob.
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On January 26 2021 01:34 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2021 01:32 Zambrah wrote:
What are the odds a Qanon-brand lunatic gets that seat? One of those types will certainly run, but whether or not they'll succeed is a tough call, especially given the uncertain events yet to unfold. Keep in mind that Sherrod Brown, the other Ohio Senator, has reliably won reelection for a while now, if the cities turn out it'll be difficult for Republicans to force through a nutjob.
Surely the mainstream Repubs don't want more Qanon types? I seem to recall they were distinctly unhappy about the Tea Party invasion back when it happened.
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On January 26 2021 01:13 Nevuk wrote:GOP senator of my state (Ohio) very unexpectedly announced he was retiring and not running for re-election. That's another bad sign for Trump's impeachment chances. Portman was the type of person he needs to have in his pocket : if Portman turns, then there really could be 17 Senators - he was only middle of the pack for likelihood to convict. Portman retiring lets him act however he wants at the trial and not care about primaries. People are calling him a centrist Republican, but he's only a centrist in the sense that he's in the middle of the party - he's no moderate. Perfectly average, if you would. His statement also mentions working across the aisle. Keep an eye on senators up for re-election in 2024 or 2026 : primaries won't matter to them. via NBC News correspondent https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1353729221185646592
Yeah.. Now that they lost on all fronts after carrying Trump or 4 years...
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On January 26 2021 02:07 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2021 01:34 farvacola wrote:On January 26 2021 01:32 Zambrah wrote:
What are the odds a Qanon-brand lunatic gets that seat? One of those types will certainly run, but whether or not they'll succeed is a tough call, especially given the uncertain events yet to unfold. Keep in mind that Sherrod Brown, the other Ohio Senator, has reliably won reelection for a while now, if the cities turn out it'll be difficult for Republicans to force through a nutjob. Surely the mainstream Repubs don't want more Qanon types? I seem to recall they were distinctly unhappy about the Tea Party invasion back when it happened. Isn't there a primary that decided who runs for what district? So the voters decide if a nutjob will run in the election, not the party.
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Yes, therell be a primary, but it’s not quite right to say that primaries necessarily reflect solely the will of voters, there are questions of resource allocation and party support that cloud the picture
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On January 26 2021 01:32 Zambrah wrote:
What are the odds a Qanon-brand lunatic gets that seat?
Low. Ohio is an odd state (I live here). While it is very republican, it has a very weird mixture. There are a ton of corporate HQs in Cincinnati, which means that the suburbs around it are filled with people working in them, many of whom are chamber of commerce type republicans. What that means is that they're entirely amoral and only care about the economy. Like, would slit a baby's throat for a dollar types if no one would ever find out, and would genuinely be confused as to why someone wouldn't. I actually prefer this to a lot of other Republicans, because it makes them very easy to understand and reason with.
They have something of a disdain for the rural, qanon, and racist parts of the republican party, but accept it because they need them to lower tax rates. Those types fill the rest of the state aside from the other major cities (Cleveland and Dayton).
So Ohio is unusual in that it actually has a conservative stronghold as part of a city (the people who actually live in Cincinnati proper tend to be minorities, but the city sprawls all over with various townships).
The rural parts of the state have tilted hard red but aren't enough to win the general election by themselves, and the CoC types would rather have a democrat than a revolution (they're risk averse) or fascists in general (they tend to take wealth away randomly).
They're also very willing to dump money into anyone who sounds not crazy for that reason. I'd guess maybe a 10-15% chance they even make it out of the primary.
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twitter seems to think it'll be Jim Jordan for the senate seat
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Twitter (probably) doesn’t realize that Gym Jordan is a product of one of the most gerrymandered districts in the US, a dynamic that’ll do him no good in a Senate race. If the GOP picks him as their candidate, that’ll increase the odds Dems take it.
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EPT
