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On January 21 2021 03:07 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 01:42 Artisreal wrote:
You could also build much more wind and solar plants and finally use that power to X technology.
Or eat 50 % less meat and use the free arable land for biomass conversion, ideally both. And with proper crop rotation so we don't degrade our soils even more. Also throw some bioethanol in the mix while stopping to destroy the Amazon and Philippines for soy bean feed and Palm oil.
I will go out on a limb and say that the energy out of these technologies will be cheaper than from Hinkley point c.
To hell, keep a couple of highly flexible natural gas power plants and get CCS going. We'll probably need that technology until the H2 networks are operational and reliable anyway for the high temperature level industries like steel and stuff.
The gripe with nuclear I have is the extraordinary costs of failure.
Doesn't it make you wonder that they are basically uninsurable? That companies running these plants do not have to carry the financial cost of the risk is an incredible subsidy. If they had to pay for all the damages, they'd go bankrupt, if they had to insure against the damages, they'd go bankrupt because the kWh would be a couple euros and not cents.
But I think I'd actually be pro nuclear for a bit longer if we can transfer the money spent on a rushed rollout of other technologies into better energy system infrastructure and a diverse power generation system that is more robust against varying weather conditions than with a rushed rollout. As EnDeR_ said, it all comes down to grid management. You gotta take your pick and if you want less carbon emissions, nuclear and natural gas are the way to go at this point. Nuclear for industrial regions, natural gas for rural, as much renewable as possible and cost effective. Until we have something better, which i'll hopefully see in my lifetime. (fusion or the perfect battery)
Absolutely, the grid, local possibilities (tidal, wind, pump storage, port, existing gas grid,...) as well as type of consumer are essential variables that have to be somewhat controlled. It ain't no overnight project (-:
One of the biggest problems seems to be the not in my backyard attitude of many people incessantly delaying infrastructure projects. Admittedly as a city dweller I'm not super qualified to judge how much the sudden appearance of a couple of wind power turbines actually distressed people.
Or high voltage above ground power lines.
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United States42864 Posts
On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine.
It's not about probabilities, when it comes to national preservation you need absolutes. The American people are unreliable and elect governments that are unreliable. They make and break treaties on a whim, they renege on obligations, they misinterpret their own promises, they put national political goals above international stability, they can be openly corrupt.
Absolute sovereignty is guaranteed only by the absolute support of a superpower or the atomic bomb. The former is no longer a guarantee.
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On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. And what about 4 years from now? or 8? or 12?
You think someone like Trump can never be elected again?
How did relying on others for protection work out for Ukraine?
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On January 21 2021 03:39 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. It's not about probabilities, when it comes to national preservation you need absolutes. The American people are unreliable and elect governments that are unreliable. They make and break treaties on a whim, they renege on obligations, they misinterpret their own promises, they put national political goals above international stability, they can be openly corrupt. Absolute sovereignty is guaranteed only by the absolute support of a superpower or the atomic bomb. The former is no longer a guarantee.
Until other countries have a remotely feasible alternative, it’s a moot point. Most countries have no real options at this point. Every country is doing cost benefit risk analysis. And the extent of Trump’s abandoning of other countries is mostly overstated. It was basically entirely bluster. I don’t think anyone has ever doubted the US would defend Japan or Europe from invasion. The US is less stable than they’d like, but it’s still the wildly superior option when they look at “so what if we made our own?” option
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United States42864 Posts
On January 21 2021 03:57 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 03:39 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. It's not about probabilities, when it comes to national preservation you need absolutes. The American people are unreliable and elect governments that are unreliable. They make and break treaties on a whim, they renege on obligations, they misinterpret their own promises, they put national political goals above international stability, they can be openly corrupt. Absolute sovereignty is guaranteed only by the absolute support of a superpower or the atomic bomb. The former is no longer a guarantee. Until other countries have a remotely feasible alternative, it’s a moot point. Most countries have no real options at this point. Every country is doing cost benefit risk analysis. And the extent of Trump’s abandoning of other countries is mostly overstated. It was basically entirely bluster. I don’t think anyone has ever doubted the US would defend Japan or Europe from invasion. The US is less stable than they’d like, but it’s still the wildly superior option when they look at “so what if we made our own?” option
Nobody doubted that the military establishment would advocate to follow the established plan of seventy years. They've built their entire defence policy around a consistent and coherent plan and so yes, they would advocate that if, for example, NATO were invoked they would answer the call.
But it's not actually up to them. And, in one of the earlier scandals of his godawful presidency, Trump said that if NATO were invoked and the US were bound to intervene then maybe they would. Just casually undermining the entire basis of postwar global stability for no fucking reason.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2016/07/28/defend-me-maybe
The country sparking the debate was Japan and Japan can absolutely defend itself against China. The reason Japan is demilitarized is because it's really good at defending itself against China, so good at it that it ends up in China. It's not that Japan doesn't have other options, it's that we've all agreed that US alliance is the best option. Japan can make their own and it would be effective, the problem is it's so effective that nobody wants that.
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On January 21 2021 03:49 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. And what about 4 years from now? or 8? or 12? You think someone like Trump can never be elected again? How did relying on others for protection work out for Ukraine?
Not sure what you mean by this. Who did Ukraine rely on? Didn't they have a revolution and a new government trying to steer away from relying on Russia and more towards the west?
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United States42864 Posts
On January 21 2021 04:28 schaf wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 03:49 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. And what about 4 years from now? or 8? or 12? You think someone like Trump can never be elected again? How did relying on others for protection work out for Ukraine? Not sure what you mean by this. Who did Ukraine rely on? Didn't they have a revolution and a new government trying to steer away from relying on Russia and more towards the west?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
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On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Those "big ass ships" (what exactly are these ships?) are less influential than you think. Especially when they keep colliding with other ships at sea with loss of life. It hasn't stopped China building artificial islands and airbases in what is quite frankly well outside it's EEZ. Your view of the situation is just nationalistic chest-thumping. The middle finger is just your imagination.
The idea that the only countries or organisations that should have a military is Russia/China/US/EU is preposterous. Should other countries just simply allow a hegemony of only your prefered military candidates? A country without a military is certain to have no voice at all in the table as it were. What country would allow that? In any case, you are several years too late to the discussion. Japan has been lowkey building up ithe capabilities of its military. As are many other countries in the region are well on their way to developing and funding new weapons and modernising their military. “So what if we made our own?” option is exactly what every country that can afford it has been doing in the region.
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On January 21 2021 04:28 schaf wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 03:49 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. And what about 4 years from now? or 8? or 12? You think someone like Trump can never be elected again? How did relying on others for protection work out for Ukraine? Not sure what you mean by this. Who did Ukraine rely on? Didn't they have a revolution and a new government trying to steer away from relying on Russia and more towards the west? As Kwark linked the Ukraine gave up their USSR leftover nukes in return for protection from Russia, UK and US.
And then got invaded by "totally not Russians" while the rest of the world stood by and watched.
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Something that people don't appreciate is that our military is being rapidly outpaced by China's military.
Sure, China has no chance in hell of exerting power in the western hemisphere, but that isn't their goal. Their goal is to deny the U.S.'s ability to project power into the far east so that they can become the dominate military and economic power in Asia. They are rapidly upgrading their military's technology while ours is rotting in the late 20th century due to political corruption and DoD inertia. If the U.S. doesn't course correct on military structure, mission, and technology, then China will be able to comfortably outmaneuver us by probably the next decade and our status as the world military hegemony will most likely be at an end.
Considering the fact that the entirety of U.S. foreign policy has been predicated on our ability to crush basically any other adversary in war for as long as any of us have been alive, that kind of change is going to be a huge problem for our foreign relations.
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The US hasn't really been able to crush anyone in a war for about 7 decades. We just acted like we could and eventually everyone believed it (in spite of a string of embarrassing losses/draws) All of our real power was of the soft kind, and Trump pissed all over that. Sure, we can bomb the shit out of anyone, but that's not actually enough to win any sort of prolonged war. Some of our soft power was also our Hollywood propaganda where we constantly portrayed our military as the strongest on Earth in popular culture everywhere.
Sidenote: Qanon forums are apparently crashing and burning since y'know, it's 100% obvious that it's total bullshit that Trump is going to arrest Biden.
Also, Biden has put up their priorities on the web. They're all pretty solid.
COVID-19
President Biden will move quickly to contain the COVID-19 crisis by expanding testing, safely reopening schools and businesses, and taking science-driven steps to address the communities — especially communities of color — who have been hardest hit by this virus. And, President Biden will launch a national vaccination program to inoculate the U.S. population efficiently and equitably.
Read more about the Biden-Harris plan to beat COVID-19
Climate
President Biden will take swift action to tackle the climate emergency. The Biden Administration will ensure we meet the demands of science, while empowering American workers and businesses to lead a clean energy revolution.
Racial Equity
The promise of our nation is that every American has an equal chance to get ahead, yet persistent systemic racism and barriers to opportunity have denied this promise for so many. President Biden is putting equity at the center of the agenda with a whole of government approach to embed racial justice across Federal agencies, policies, and programs. And President Biden will take bold action to advance a comprehensive equity agenda to deliver criminal justice reform, end disparities in healthcare access and education, strengthen fair housing, and restore Federal respect for Tribal sovereignty, among other actions, so that everyone across America has the opportunity to fulfill their potential.
Economy
President Biden will take bold steps to address the inequities in our economy and provide relief to those who are struggling during the COVID-19 pandemic. The President will also work with Congress to pass the American Rescue Plan to change the course of the pandemic, build a bridge towards economic recovery, and invest in racial justice. And, he will build our economy back better from the pandemic and create millions of jobs by strengthening small businesses and investing in the jobs of the future.
Health Care
President Biden will make a renewed commitment to protect and expand Americans’ access to quality, affordable health care. He will build on the Affordable Care Act to meet the health care needs created by the pandemic, reduce health care costs, and make our health care system less complex to navigate.
Immigration
President Biden will reform our long-broken and chaotic immigration system. President Biden’s strategy is centered on the basic premise that our country is safer, stronger, and more prosperous with a fair and orderly immigration system that welcomes immigrants, keeps families together, and allows people across the country—both newly arrived immigrants and people who have lived here for generations—to more fully contribute to our country.
Restoring America’s Global Standing
https://www.whitehouse.gov/priorities/
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On January 21 2021 03:57 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 03:39 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:13 JimmiC wrote:How do you guys think Biden is going to deal with China? I think they are now the biggest external threat and they also treat their people (expecially any one not Han) horribly without regards to human rights? They are becoming far more aggressive internationally moving away from their more positive diplomacy, to the "wolf warrior" style. Recently they withhold covid vaccine until Turkey agreed to extradite Uygur political rivals. I'm not sure genocide is provable yet at a UN court but that is what is happening. And I don't know if the world can stand up to the worlds second biggest economy and second most powerful military. The US has lost a lot of credibility and stability so banking on them will not be what much of the world wants. Basically nothing has been done as China completely takes over the people of Hong Kong and removes democracy. Very dangerous times. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place. In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. It's not about probabilities, when it comes to national preservation you need absolutes. The American people are unreliable and elect governments that are unreliable. They make and break treaties on a whim, they renege on obligations, they misinterpret their own promises, they put national political goals above international stability, they can be openly corrupt. Absolute sovereignty is guaranteed only by the absolute support of a superpower or the atomic bomb. The former is no longer a guarantee. Until other countries have a remotely feasible alternative, it’s a moot point. Most countries have no real options at this point. Every country is doing cost benefit risk analysis. And the extent of Trump’s abandoning of other countries is mostly overstated. It was basically entirely bluster. I don’t think anyone has ever doubted the US would defend Japan or Europe from invasion. The US is less stable than they’d like, but it’s still the wildly superior option when they look at “so what if we made our own?” option
You're mixing two different things.
For those of us in China's shadow, yes, the cost benefit leaves us no choice but to lean into the alliance with the US, in the short term.
However, the exact same cost benefit tells us that the US cannot now be relied upon, and that "so what if we made our own" is the only option in the long term.
Biden squeaking out a victory does not magically erase the last four years. Everyone is now aware that 45% of the country supported and still supports a nakedly fascist autocrat. America's tenure as world police is over.
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On January 21 2021 04:28 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 04:28 schaf wrote:On January 21 2021 03:49 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 03:02 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:55 Gorsameth wrote:On January 21 2021 02:53 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:44 KwarK wrote:On January 21 2021 02:43 Mohdoo wrote:On January 21 2021 02:27 JimmiC wrote:On January 21 2021 02:20 KwarK wrote:
[quote]
China has a UN SC seat and is therefore immune to the UN. The main goal of the UN is to prevent war between the victorious allied powers who sit on the SC, not to make the world a better place.
In practical terms all that can be done is strengthen China’s neighbours, reduce dependence on Chinese industry, and increase Chinese interdependence on neighbours. China has the will and capacity to be expansionist but is also guided by pragmatism. The issue will be decided by whether it is profitable for China to expand. It is more likely that it will pursue strictly economic imperialism over colonialism. That is a mixed bag, no major war is a huge positive, but it also means there is basically nothing to be done (that would be effective in the short or medium term) about what they are doing to their own people. Do you think it is time to encourage Japan to start rebuilding their military as a counter balance in the region? Definitely not. The goal should be for as few different countries to have as few weapons as possible. Less people at the table is a good thing. Right now the only people that really need to get along are Russia/China/US/EU. China gets along much better with armed neighbours. So long as the US has big ass ships giving China the middle finger in the areas other countries are interested in, same effect. It doesn't need to be a Japanese ship, the position of the ship and the power of the ship are what matter. Yeah but the world no longer trust the US to do that, so now everyone wants to take care of themselves. Nah, don't think that's true at all. I really don't think major governments with teams running simulations and whatnot are like "Trump existed, guess the US doesn't exist anymore". Its still incredibly favorable to have US protection. The whole idea of "the world doesn't trust the US anymore" is silly and has no merit. The world also has no other option. Most countries don't want to pay for the extreme amount of military development necessary. Trump was a single term president, Biden is back in power, we're fine. And what about 4 years from now? or 8? or 12? You think someone like Trump can never be elected again? How did relying on others for protection work out for Ukraine? Not sure what you mean by this. Who did Ukraine rely on? Didn't they have a revolution and a new government trying to steer away from relying on Russia and more towards the west? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
Thanks, missed that one
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United States24698 Posts
On January 21 2021 06:02 Nevuk wrote:
The US hasn't really been able to crush anyone in a war for about 7 decades. We just acted like we could and eventually everyone believed it (in spite of a string of embarrassing losses/draws) All of our real power was of the soft kind, and Trump pissed all over that. Sure, we can bomb the shit out of anyone, but that's not actually enough to win any sort of prolonged war. Some of our soft power was also our Hollywood propaganda where we constantly portrayed our military as the strongest on Earth in popular culture everywhere.
This is a complicated topic but I think at a minimum you need to clarify what you are saying because as stated it is demonstrably false. Iraq was "crushed" during the Gulf War (~1990) and Iraq War (~2003 although much less justified). The coalition included other nations besides the U.S., but the U.S. could have succeeded without the support of the other nations if it were necessary. For the majority of non-landlocked nations in the world, U.S. naval and aerial bombardment will establish dominance very quickly in an all out war. The demonstrated area of weakness in this case was not military might but what to do after declaring victory on the battlefield, which is much more complicated.
The Vietnam war was a failure due mostly to poor civilian leadership, not pure war fighting capability. If North Vietnam had bombed Pearl Harbor, they would have been completely defeated very quickly.
What would happen if the U.S. suddenly went to war with other major players is much less clear although the U.S. still has the greatest capability for controlling blue waters overall (and the gap is shrinking).
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On January 21 2021 06:02 Nevuk wrote:The US hasn't really been able to crush anyone in a war for about 7 decades. We just acted like we could and eventually everyone believed it (in spite of a string of embarrassing losses/draws) All of our real power was of the soft kind, and Trump pissed all over that. Sure, we can bomb the shit out of anyone, but that's not actually enough to win any sort of prolonged war. Some of our soft power was also our Hollywood propaganda where we constantly portrayed our military as the strongest on Earth in popular culture everywhere. Sidenote: Qanon forums are apparently crashing and burning since y'know, it's 100% obvious that it's total bullshit that Trump is going to arrest Biden. Also, Biden has put up their priorities on the web. They're all pretty solid. Show nested quote +
COVID-19
President Biden will move quickly to contain the COVID-19 crisis by expanding testing, safely reopening schools and businesses, and taking science-driven steps to address the communities — especially communities of color — who have been hardest hit by this virus. And, President Biden will launch a national vaccination program to inoculate the U.S. population efficiently and equitably.
Read more about the Biden-Harris plan to beat COVID-19
Climate
President Biden will take swift action to tackle the climate emergency. The Biden Administration will ensure we meet the demands of science, while empowering American workers and businesses to lead a clean energy revolution.
Racial Equity
The promise of our nation is that every American has an equal chance to get ahead, yet persistent systemic racism and barriers to opportunity have denied this promise for so many. President Biden is putting equity at the center of the agenda with a whole of government approach to embed racial justice across Federal agencies, policies, and programs. And President Biden will take bold action to advance a comprehensive equity agenda to deliver criminal justice reform, end disparities in healthcare access and education, strengthen fair housing, and restore Federal respect for Tribal sovereignty, among other actions, so that everyone across America has the opportunity to fulfill their potential.
Economy
President Biden will take bold steps to address the inequities in our economy and provide relief to those who are struggling during the COVID-19 pandemic. The President will also work with Congress to pass the American Rescue Plan to change the course of the pandemic, build a bridge towards economic recovery, and invest in racial justice. And, he will build our economy back better from the pandemic and create millions of jobs by strengthening small businesses and investing in the jobs of the future.
Health Care
President Biden will make a renewed commitment to protect and expand Americans’ access to quality, affordable health care. He will build on the Affordable Care Act to meet the health care needs created by the pandemic, reduce health care costs, and make our health care system less complex to navigate.
Immigration
President Biden will reform our long-broken and chaotic immigration system. President Biden’s strategy is centered on the basic premise that our country is safer, stronger, and more prosperous with a fair and orderly immigration system that welcomes immigrants, keeps families together, and allows people across the country—both newly arrived immigrants and people who have lived here for generations—to more fully contribute to our country.
Restoring America’s Global Standing
https://www.whitehouse.gov/priorities/
Doesn't Qanon have a super long list of predictions that never happened? How is anyone still listening to them is mind boggling and very concerning.
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On January 21 2021 06:57 PoulsenB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 06:02 Nevuk wrote:The US hasn't really been able to crush anyone in a war for about 7 decades. We just acted like we could and eventually everyone believed it (in spite of a string of embarrassing losses/draws) All of our real power was of the soft kind, and Trump pissed all over that. Sure, we can bomb the shit out of anyone, but that's not actually enough to win any sort of prolonged war. Some of our soft power was also our Hollywood propaganda where we constantly portrayed our military as the strongest on Earth in popular culture everywhere. Sidenote: Qanon forums are apparently crashing and burning since y'know, it's 100% obvious that it's total bullshit that Trump is going to arrest Biden. Also, Biden has put up their priorities on the web. They're all pretty solid.
COVID-19
President Biden will move quickly to contain the COVID-19 crisis by expanding testing, safely reopening schools and businesses, and taking science-driven steps to address the communities — especially communities of color — who have been hardest hit by this virus. And, President Biden will launch a national vaccination program to inoculate the U.S. population efficiently and equitably.
Read more about the Biden-Harris plan to beat COVID-19
Climate
President Biden will take swift action to tackle the climate emergency. The Biden Administration will ensure we meet the demands of science, while empowering American workers and businesses to lead a clean energy revolution.
Racial Equity
The promise of our nation is that every American has an equal chance to get ahead, yet persistent systemic racism and barriers to opportunity have denied this promise for so many. President Biden is putting equity at the center of the agenda with a whole of government approach to embed racial justice across Federal agencies, policies, and programs. And President Biden will take bold action to advance a comprehensive equity agenda to deliver criminal justice reform, end disparities in healthcare access and education, strengthen fair housing, and restore Federal respect for Tribal sovereignty, among other actions, so that everyone across America has the opportunity to fulfill their potential.
Economy
President Biden will take bold steps to address the inequities in our economy and provide relief to those who are struggling during the COVID-19 pandemic. The President will also work with Congress to pass the American Rescue Plan to change the course of the pandemic, build a bridge towards economic recovery, and invest in racial justice. And, he will build our economy back better from the pandemic and create millions of jobs by strengthening small businesses and investing in the jobs of the future.
Health Care
President Biden will make a renewed commitment to protect and expand Americans’ access to quality, affordable health care. He will build on the Affordable Care Act to meet the health care needs created by the pandemic, reduce health care costs, and make our health care system less complex to navigate.
Immigration
President Biden will reform our long-broken and chaotic immigration system. President Biden’s strategy is centered on the basic premise that our country is safer, stronger, and more prosperous with a fair and orderly immigration system that welcomes immigrants, keeps families together, and allows people across the country—both newly arrived immigrants and people who have lived here for generations—to more fully contribute to our country.
Restoring America’s Global Standing
https://www.whitehouse.gov/priorities/ Doesn't Qanon have a super long list of predictions that never happened? How is anyone still listening to them is mind boggling and very concerning.
They're probably the same people who believed a lying conman's every word for the last 4 years too.
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Someone please get me up to speed here; we still chanting Orange Mad Bad or is there a new slogan I can utter to demonstrate that I am a Good human being unlike those nasty Evil people?
User was warned for this post
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On January 21 2021 07:23 Amumoman wrote:
Someone please get me up to speed here; we still chanting Orange Mad Bad or is there a new slogan I can utter to demonstrate that I am a Good human being unlike those nasty Evil people?
May I ask what made you feel like this was worth posting?
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On January 21 2021 07:26 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2021 07:23 Amumoman wrote:
Someone please get me up to speed here; we still chanting Orange Mad Bad or is there a new slogan I can utter to demonstrate that I am a Good human being unlike those nasty Evil people? May I ask what made you feel like this was worth posting?
This isn’t kindergarden, my friend; you don’t have to ask permission!
Im sorry if you didnt find what I posted funny or didnt get it or felt like my post was inappropriately silly. Have a nice day 
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EPT
