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On March 15 2020 14:24 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 14:03 Mohdoo wrote:On March 15 2020 13:30 LegalLord wrote:
There's something to be said for NOT following along with China in basically declaring martial law in response to a crisis. It may have helped to stem the crisis (and frankly, I'm not convinced - their numbers seem quite fictional and we don't know if it'll come surging back in short order), but when going that far the cure is likely worse than the disease. Closing the borders is one thing, but it's troubling how much support there is for a "do exactly what China did" approach to this crisis. Those scorched earth solutions don't exactly have the best track record, historically. I think people have boners for South Korea, not China. When is the last time China provided a single valid number, in any context whatsoever? The mediaverse is clearly focusing in their praise on China and the way that it quickly "contained" the crisis. The unreliable narrator problem often isn't acknowledged as much as it should be, but frankly I'm not sure what evidence we have one way or the other since it's surprisingly easy to hide a massive death toll in a country like that. If we're talking about countries that handled this the best, I'd put Vietnam and Singapore pretty far up there on the list. South Korea did have the whole "patient 31" crisis, which I'd attribute to bad luck more than any particular form of incompetence, but that still kind of mars the handling of the epidemic.
Sounds like I should be glad I'm not plugged into the described mediaverse
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Canada8989 Posts
On March 15 2020 13:22 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 12:55 Sadist wrote:
We need to close all but essential business in the US immediately.
We are just kicking the can down the road and its only going to make things worse. Well have to do it anyway in the next 2 to 3 weeks except with a significantly higher number of sick people.
Its so fucking maddening. We know people can have mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. The numbers we are reporting are meaningless if everyone cannot be tested. I cannot believe how bad our government fucked this up.
Even if you wanted to be political about it, by delaying shutting things down its putting us behind countries that have already implemented these measures. China is way ahead of the curve. Do they not think this will harm the US standing in the global economy? China will be up and running and well just be starting to close things. Its fucking ridiculous.
Agreed on all points. Things like this require a federal response. While I am resting easy knowing that the debate as to whether a significant government response is necessary (rather than shitty deals with private companies) will be settled, conclusively, in due time, I don't like knowing what that evidence will look like. This will be bad. We have every reason to think we are headed to a worse situation than Italy. There is not a single metric that implies we will be less crippled than Italy. Yet here we are, and all we can do is wait.
There's a huge economical risk with shutting down everything, if the stock market crashes with everyone pulling out their money and the insurance company/bank goes in bankrupcy at the moment when it so happen that most people are off work and can't get access to new money it could be extreamly tromblesome. If you come out in a month only to letter anouncing you are beeing evicted from your home, or go to work only to realize your company no longer exist you aren't really any better, on top of all those living pay check to pay check and who can be hard to reach even if you put relief plan in place. And of course the US is the second biggest economy in the world, sending everyone home could be desastrous world wide as it as a bigger impact than Italy or Korea. The country also has unparallel access to financial and logistical ressources tho.
I know every state are seamingly shutting down right now, but deciding to ride it out could be the US answer, I'm not saying it's the good decision or even a decent decision, I don't have much of a clue, but it's not impossible. Just staff the hospital to the max and let the can roll all the way down the hill...
With that said the US government does seem to be particularly incompetent in his response.
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On March 15 2020 14:21 Mohdoo wrote:
Does anyone know how this whole mortgage pausing thing works? My understanding is that when you prevent evictions (like Seattle), you basically have to also prevent mortgage payments because otherwise the owners would lose their properties. Which is what Italy did. But would that decision need to be federal? Or will Washington and Oregon likely do the same soon? Right now Oregon is cranking it up pretty quickly, which is relieving, but all the measures being taken will require eviction pauses, which I assume will require mortgage pauses.
It will depend on a LOT of things and be very different for each state.
There's three routes that can be taken, off the top of my head. It's new territory for everyone, so there's not really a set way to do it, but these are the mechanisms that could be tried.
1. Ask Mortgage companies to do it voluntarily. It's not good for them if all of their customers go bankrupt. It's also terrible PR.
(I've already gotten notice from my energy company that they are no longer disconnecting for the next month. It didn't say that they were pausing payment, though)
2. The governor can say "Don't" and invoke some sort of emergency power. This will vary from state to state, but they do have a military and can literally take over a bank's local offices if the bank resists the order. (This is very unlikely, but it is an option, and part of why companies listen when the governor orders them not to, even when there is no specific law). More realistic is something like telling a state they aren't permitted to do ANY business in the state, which they can typically do with regulatory orders, if they don't pause mortgages. Would either of those things survive a court challenge? Depends, but as it would only be for a few weeks it probably wouldn't matter (I'm pretty sure they WOULD survive a court challenge, due to the clear and present danger to public health). State executive branches tend to get a lot of extra power and latitude in emergency situations, but it will vary from state to state. I'd guess that most Southern states get almost unlimited power, as their constituions were made with slave revolts in mind, for instance.
3. WA/OR can pass a bill that basically says "You can't charge for mortgages in the next X period in this state". This is the hardest to fight in court, but is the most complex and hardest to do - can WA really ban a bank whose HQ are in Delaware from collecting payments? I'm sure there's some complex legalistic way to phrase it, but that takes time to figure out that they may not have. It also would require grouping a ton of people in close quarters for the vote. It may also lead to the banks wanting reimbursed by the State for the mortgages in the period.
Ohio is doing a mix of 1 and 2 currently- the Governor has banned all gatherings larger than 100 people, but hasn't said what law he's using to do it, and hasn't said that he's 'asking'. This is in direct contradiction to the 1st amendment freedom of assembly - but like, it's obviously going to be followed (and probably falls into an exception for public health).
However, he has also put out tweets like this, where it's clearly a request rather than an order
This is an issue where each state is gonna have a different response, as the federal one has been so awful. Some states are probably going to handle it well, a few are going to handle it terribly (though I doubt they will do worse than the Federal gov't has so far).
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Thank you for the explanation! Very thorough and helpful
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On March 15 2020 14:24 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 14:03 Mohdoo wrote:On March 15 2020 13:30 LegalLord wrote:
There's something to be said for NOT following along with China in basically declaring martial law in response to a crisis. It may have helped to stem the crisis (and frankly, I'm not convinced - their numbers seem quite fictional and we don't know if it'll come surging back in short order), but when going that far the cure is likely worse than the disease. Closing the borders is one thing, but it's troubling how much support there is for a "do exactly what China did" approach to this crisis. Those scorched earth solutions don't exactly have the best track record, historically. I think people have boners for South Korea, not China. When is the last time China provided a single valid number, in any context whatsoever? The mediaverse is clearly focusing in their praise on China and the way that it quickly "contained" the crisis. The unreliable narrator problem often isn't acknowledged as much as it should be, but frankly I'm not sure what evidence we have one way or the other since it's surprisingly easy to hide a massive death toll in a country like that. If we're talking about countries that handled this the best, I'd put Vietnam and Singapore pretty far up there on the list. South Korea did have the whole "patient 31" crisis, which I'd attribute to bad luck more than any particular form of incompetence, but that still kind of mars the handling of the epidemic.
Xi wants people to forget that it's the toxic political culture of his country that allowed this crisis to exist in the first place. Like the USSR used to be, it's more important to contain the news than the problem in China; in a free country, precious weeks wouldn't have been lost in Wuhan.
So the party's PR machine is turning fully to flood the world with the news of the heroic efforts of China and how great they are doing.
Good medias see through it though. The NYT reminds its reader of those facts regularly for example.
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how much would this massive increase in (consumer)spending offset the looming economic crash?.(it should last for 1-2 more months i think)
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On March 15 2020 16:48 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 14:24 LegalLord wrote:On March 15 2020 14:03 Mohdoo wrote:On March 15 2020 13:30 LegalLord wrote:
There's something to be said for NOT following along with China in basically declaring martial law in response to a crisis. It may have helped to stem the crisis (and frankly, I'm not convinced - their numbers seem quite fictional and we don't know if it'll come surging back in short order), but when going that far the cure is likely worse than the disease. Closing the borders is one thing, but it's troubling how much support there is for a "do exactly what China did" approach to this crisis. Those scorched earth solutions don't exactly have the best track record, historically. I think people have boners for South Korea, not China. When is the last time China provided a single valid number, in any context whatsoever? The mediaverse is clearly focusing in their praise on China and the way that it quickly "contained" the crisis. The unreliable narrator problem often isn't acknowledged as much as it should be, but frankly I'm not sure what evidence we have one way or the other since it's surprisingly easy to hide a massive death toll in a country like that. If we're talking about countries that handled this the best, I'd put Vietnam and Singapore pretty far up there on the list. South Korea did have the whole "patient 31" crisis, which I'd attribute to bad luck more than any particular form of incompetence, but that still kind of mars the handling of the epidemic. Xi wants people to forget that it's the toxic political culture of his country that allowed this crisis to exist in the first place. Like the USSR used to be, it's more important to contain the news than the problem in China; in a free country, precious weeks wouldn't have been lost in Wuhan. So the party's PR machine is turning fully to flood the world with the news of the heroic efforts of China and how great they are doing. Good medias see through it though. The NYT reminds its reader of those facts regularly for example.
What about Italy's response makes you think precious time wouldn't have been lost in a free country? Here in Spain up until about two weeks ago we were still joking and nobody took it very seriously. And there are still many people here who don't take it seriously.
Also, insofar as I understand things, China didn't actually lose time repressing the news this time around. They actually learned from their SARS experience.
Not that I think China is necessarily the best example to follow, but if their reports are true it is impressive how they contained it. Of course, as LL points out: it is an unreliable narrator. Taiwan, Singapore and SK are better examples. They all have a similar approach tho. Isolate and test-test-test!
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On March 15 2020 20:06 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2020 16:48 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 15 2020 14:24 LegalLord wrote:On March 15 2020 14:03 Mohdoo wrote:On March 15 2020 13:30 LegalLord wrote:
There's something to be said for NOT following along with China in basically declaring martial law in response to a crisis. It may have helped to stem the crisis (and frankly, I'm not convinced - their numbers seem quite fictional and we don't know if it'll come surging back in short order), but when going that far the cure is likely worse than the disease. Closing the borders is one thing, but it's troubling how much support there is for a "do exactly what China did" approach to this crisis. Those scorched earth solutions don't exactly have the best track record, historically. I think people have boners for South Korea, not China. When is the last time China provided a single valid number, in any context whatsoever? The mediaverse is clearly focusing in their praise on China and the way that it quickly "contained" the crisis. The unreliable narrator problem often isn't acknowledged as much as it should be, but frankly I'm not sure what evidence we have one way or the other since it's surprisingly easy to hide a massive death toll in a country like that. If we're talking about countries that handled this the best, I'd put Vietnam and Singapore pretty far up there on the list. South Korea did have the whole "patient 31" crisis, which I'd attribute to bad luck more than any particular form of incompetence, but that still kind of mars the handling of the epidemic. Xi wants people to forget that it's the toxic political culture of his country that allowed this crisis to exist in the first place. Like the USSR used to be, it's more important to contain the news than the problem in China; in a free country, precious weeks wouldn't have been lost in Wuhan. So the party's PR machine is turning fully to flood the world with the news of the heroic efforts of China and how great they are doing. Good medias see through it though. The NYT reminds its reader of those facts regularly for example. What about Italy's response makes you think precious time wouldn't have been lost in a free country? Here in Spain up until about two weeks ago we were still joking and nobody took it very seriously. And there are still many people here who don't take it seriously. Also, insofar as I understand things, China didn't actually lose time repressing the news this time around. They actually learned from their SARS experience. Not that I think China is necessarily the best example to follow, but if their reports are true it is impressive how they contained it. Of course, as LL points out: it is an unreliable narrator. Taiwan, Singapore and SK are better examples. They all have a similar approach tho. Isolate and test-test-test!
The Wuhan doctors that warned about the virus rang the alarm bell and were disciplined and silenced, for weeks for "spreading rumors". The city held official banquets with thousand of people weeks after the first reports were made of the new virus and it's only when people started dying like flies that the government reacted. But it was wayyy too late.
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I get the feeling the sinophobia is going to increase exponentially as we become increasingly dependent on China bailing the western world out of our series of cascading failures.
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I think it's fair to say that countries with less repression and authoritarianism would have handled patient zero better, but patient #1000 worse.
The key, of course, is that if patient zero had been taken seriously, we might not have got to patient #1000 at all.
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Northern Ireland25630 Posts
On March 15 2020 23:35 JimmiC wrote:
It is not sinophobic to talk negatively about China's human rights violations, or their handling of Corona virus. The same as it is not anti-Semitic to talk about how Israel is handling the Palestinians. If people start talking about removing China from the map or wiping them out it would be, but unlike towards Israel I have seen none of that in these threads.
China's leadership cares more about China's image than there peoples health, well being, or human rights. That is just fact it is no way sinophobic. It is not the Chinese peoples fault since they have no choice in their leadership. It makes more sense for people to blame the American people for Trump than it would to blame the Chinese people for Xi.
That’s because this thread isn’t full of angry idiots for the most part.
Was meant to be meeting a bunch of friends this weekend in Cork too much Corona-related disruptions alas. Two cancelled their backpacking around Europe after witnessing a Chinese women get thrown out their hostel in Istanbul and much of her belongings burned, for the crime of coughing.
So yeah I could absolutely see all sorts of ugly bigotry rear its head on that kind of basis, or probably more likely a ton of resentment be stoked up if China was needed to basically bail out the West.
Hell there’s a racial overtone all over the rhetoric of this trade war with China as it is.
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Northern Ireland25630 Posts
On March 16 2020 00:10 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2020 00:00 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 15 2020 23:35 JimmiC wrote:
It is not sinophobic to talk negatively about China's human rights violations, or their handling of Corona virus. The same as it is not anti-Semitic to talk about how Israel is handling the Palestinians. If people start talking about removing China from the map or wiping them out it would be, but unlike towards Israel I have seen none of that in these threads.
China's leadership cares more about China's image than there peoples health, well being, or human rights. That is just fact it is no way sinophobic. It is not the Chinese peoples fault since they have no choice in their leadership. It makes more sense for people to blame the American people for Trump than it would to blame the Chinese people for Xi. That’s because this thread isn’t full of angry idiots for the most part. Was meant to be meeting a bunch of friends this weekend in Cork too much Corona-related disruptions alas. Two cancelled their backpacking around Europe after witnessing a Chinese women get thrown out their hostel in Istanbul and much of her belongings burned, for the crime of coughing. So yeah I could absolutely see all sorts of ugly bigotry rear its head on that kind of basis, or probably more likely a ton of resentment be stoked up if China was needed to basically bail out the West. Hell there’s a racial overtone all over the rhetoric of this trade war with China as it is. I mean it is a given that bigot's will continue to be bigots. I just don't see this having a huge effect on non bigots. Other than they might spend more time being pointlessly angry at the Chinese instead of pointlessly angry at the Hispanic's or Muslims. China deserves no praise here. They have gone as far as to ban silly shit like peppa the pig but they still allow wildlife hunting and feeding people with it. Not only is it extremely bad for situations just like this but it is also extreme cruelty to the animals. They are treated horribly and have open wounds dripping down on other animals making them sick. It is so bad in so many ways. I can't fathom how anyone would think that the Chinese government is something any other nation should copy or follow.
The world’s general record on animal rights is appalling in general, the Chinese aren’t uniquely bad here.
Anyway I don’t see how that’s overly relevant to specifically what me and GH said regarding an increase in sinophobia.
What GH alluded to has very little to do with Chinese human rights records and everything to do with the Chinese having power, leverage and being an equivalently influential nation, it’s really that prospect which frightens a segment of the West, well at least that segment that are enthused by talk of a trade war with China.
Others, myself included yeah have issues with China on all sorts of human rights rationales, but by and large the West and its companies were quite happy to swallow their nose and bypass these while fattening themselves and China up over the past number of decades. Bit late now to use soft power isn’t it?
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On March 15 2020 20:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
I get the feeling the sinophobia is going to increase exponentially as we become increasingly dependent on China bailing the western world out of our series of cascading failures.
The tendency to equate nations with their leadership is something that is fostered when it's convenient to the ones in charge.
The inverse also works, to turn critics of leadership into critics of a nation when you want to defend the leadership.
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China has half the homeless population by proportion as Canada, 0.18% and 0.36% respectively.
Source: Stanford, OECD
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On March 15 2020 20:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
I get the feeling the sinophobia is going to increase exponentially as we become increasingly dependent on China bailing the western world out of our series of cascading failures.
Wtf does that have to do with sinophobia, we'll probably never know. Your insinuation of racism are not only misplaced, they are highly insulting.
Pointing out that chinese political culture is highly toxic and has contributed to the crisis is not racism. I don't like dictatorships, and it's in dictatorships that the messenger gets shot for "spreading rumors" when they raise the alarm, because they are systems centered on the survival of their regime.
I would appreciate if you kept your accusations of biggotry for those who deserve them. Thanks.
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Canada8989 Posts
On March 16 2020 01:42 JohnDelaney wrote:China has half the homeless population by proportion as Canada, 0.18% and 0.36% respectively. Source: Stanford, OECD
Homelessness statistic are a hard thing to measure.
Usually statistics are collected by either income declaration, census or homes, all document homeless people don't appeared on, they sometime don't even have a clean legal status so they are hard to follow. Once in a while city government or university organize massed census with a bunch of people hitting the street to meet with homeless people and try to do approximation of the total population. Having a strong network of organism or social service can help you having better statistics on homelessness and the reality of it.
It also can change depending of how you qualify "homelessness". For example Brazil, famously known for his vast virtually homeless population in slump is listed has having less homeless people than Canada which is just a clear contraction of the reality of living in those two country. And on the different graph Nigeria has 16% of homeless people probably because of counting the same kind of people that aren't counted in Brazil. We know full well that there's also multiple place in China where there's similar massive slump, so I'm quite doubtful the comparison is that exact.
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EPT
