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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1383

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5544 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-05-29 15:26:50
May 29 2023 15:25 GMT
#27641
I think this is a good metaphor for the Turkish elections:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UZRVDLBJlg8

;-)
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 29 2023 18:21 GMT
#27642
This isn't going to end well. Apparently Polish troops were the NATO troops on the barricades, the area is supposedly very culturally Serb in the form of Monasteries etc. The Serbs boycotted the elections and now don't want any Albanian elected officials in said positions.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6205 Posts
May 30 2023 06:13 GMT
#27643
On May 29 2023 06:21 Simberto wrote:
But he controls the press. So a lot of information a lot of turks get is only exactly what Erdogan wants them to hear.

As it turns out, fair elections are not enough for a real democracy. Without fair information, the democracy is still a sham even if no ballots are stuffed.

Certainly not enough for real democracy no but there are options nonetheless. In Thailand, the Move Forward party made large gains even in conservative rural areas with effective use of social media and using their popularity with young people to influence votes of older people. And in Thailand there's literal vote buying and the conservative establishment has even more power than Erdogan.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 29 2023 22:20 GMT
#27644
Serbia and Kosovo tensions have flared up again. NATO is also increasing troop numbers to the area. Because why have one major war in Europe, and not two?




BRUSSELS, Sept 29 (Reuters) - NATO has authorized additional forces for Kosovo, the military alliance said on Friday, following the worst violence in northern Kosovo in years.

A battle between police and armed Serbs holed up in a monastery turned a quiet village in northern Kosovo into a war zone earlier this week.

NATO said in a statement that it had "authorized additional forces to address the current situation" but did not immediately specify how many or from which countries. A later statement from Britain's Ministry of Defence said it had transferred command of a battalion of troops to the alliance.

Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008 after a guerrilla uprising and 1999 NATO intervention, accuses Serbia of arming and supporting the Serb fighters.

Serbia, which has not recognised its former province's independence, blames Kosovo for precipitating violence by mistreating ethnic Serb residents. Serbia and the main Serb political group in Kosovo have proclaimed public mourning for the Serbs killed in the battle.

Britain's Ministry of Defence said it had transferred command of the 1st Battalion of the Princess of Wales's Royal Regiment - a reserve force for NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) - to NATO so it could provide support if required.

It said the battalion had recently arrived in the region for a long-planned training exercise.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4726 Posts
October 15 2023 10:08 GMT
#27645
There is 200 meter queue in front of my voting commission. Never seen anything like that. I think (and hope) this will be the biggest voter turnout in Poland's history.
Pathetic Greta hater.
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
October 15 2023 11:05 GMT
#27646
so is poland going alt-right?
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4726 Posts
October 15 2023 11:22 GMT
#27647
Um.... what? Why would You say that?
Pathetic Greta hater.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28649 Posts
October 15 2023 11:41 GMT
#27648
Actually seems plausible that PiS loses the majority and that there will be a new coalition government formed by KO (EU-friendly liberals/neolibs even), a leftist coalition, and the 'third way', which is a centre-centre right party.

Which certainly looks like a pretty big tent, and I dunno what their common platform might look like.
Moderator
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28649 Posts
October 15 2023 19:20 GMT
#27649
Exit polls indicate that yeah, PiS is out, Poland will get a new government. Won't necessarily be more left-leaning economically (perhaps on the contrary), but definitely on social issues. Also significantly more pro-EU.

73% turnout. 62% in 2019, and that was a new record. Good for Poland!

Moderator
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4726 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-10-15 19:25:12
October 15 2023 19:22 GMT
#27650
Exit polls:
PiS - 36,8%
KO - 31,6%
Trzecia Droga - 13%
Lewica - 8,6%
Konfederacja - 6,2%

If that turns out to be accurate, that means the worse case scenario (Konfedercja + PiS coalition) has been avoided. Probably as Drone indicated we are looking a KO+Trzecia Droga+Lewica ruling coalition.
Pathetic Greta hater.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9188 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-10-15 19:52:03
October 15 2023 19:44 GMT
#27651
Both PiS and the far right lost votes to the center right. Lefties lost (8,6 to 12,5% 4 years ago) but they'll still get to participate in the government. It all makes sense now but it's not something I would predict. I mean I knew such outcome is possible but I thought the outcome with more votes on the far left and far right was more likely.

I wonder if this result will allow the EU to act more aggresively toward Hungary. I doubt anyone will support them in their rule of law disputes. They should be completely alone in that now.

Another thing worth noting is that PiS still has their president until 2025. He can veto laws and the anti-PiS coalition won't have enough votes to overcome that veto.
You're now breathing manually
pmp10
Profile Joined April 2012
3315 Posts
October 15 2023 21:14 GMT
#27652
On October 16 2023 04:44 Sent. wrote:
I wonder if this result will allow the EU to act more aggresively toward Hungary. I doubt anyone will support them in their rule of law disputes. They should be completely alone in that now.

To be fair, there is no guarantee that new government will be able to solve polish rule of law disputes.
They are facing a hostile president and not even PIS was able to resolve the legal deadlock it created.
Poegim
Profile Joined February 2017
Poland264 Posts
October 16 2023 07:37 GMT
#27653
On October 15 2023 20:05 xM(Z wrote:
so is poland going alt-right?


Center-left
Aka: Poezja[T4], Zulu. [[ Probably second best player in the world. In honor of my best friend Moagim, he was a Kraken from the sea. Poegim ]]
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4726 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-10-17 09:28:01
October 17 2023 08:41 GMT
#27654
Official results are in:
PiS - 194 mandates (down from 234)
KO - 157 (up from 134)
TD - 65 (up from 30)
Lewica - 26 (down from 49)
Konfederacja - 18 (up from 11)

460 seats in total so 231 is majority.

So as many suspected most likely we are looking at KO+TD+Lewica coaltion (248 votes) with Donald Tusk as Prime Minister. Still PiS people are holding many important positions (president, seats on supreme court, national bank president etc.). So it will be a hard fight to reverse some changes they made. Not even going into intra colation dealings/fighting.
Pathetic Greta hater.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25075 Posts
November 25 2023 08:05 GMT
#27655
Right so in addition to recent right wing riots in Dublin of all places, Geert Wilders and his PVV have come out as the largest party in recent Dutch elections.

Is there like any positive political news across Europe these days? Feels like we’ve been collectively eating shit for at least half a decade.

To my Dutch, or otherwise informed Liquidians, how likely is his party to actually form a government and how much would one view his attempts to soften his image and project a more moderate stance as something that might continue in governance, or was merely an exercise in improving electability prior to reversion?
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17975 Posts
November 25 2023 09:03 GMT
#27656
On November 25 2023 17:05 WombaT wrote:
Right so in addition to recent right wing riots in Dublin of all places, Geert Wilders and his PVV have come out as the largest party in recent Dutch elections.

Is there like any positive political news across Europe these days? Feels like we’ve been collectively eating shit for at least half a decade.

To my Dutch, or otherwise informed Liquidians, how likely is his party to actually form a government and how much would one view his attempts to soften his image and project a more moderate stance as something that might continue in governance, or was merely an exercise in improving electability prior to reversion?

Pedro Sanchez managed to form a coalition in Spain. With mass protests over the promised amnesty law for Catalan dissidents. Next hurdle, actually getting the law passed in parliament and then fighting opponents in courts. Let's just hope the government can do some of the promised reforms before they crash and burn spectacularly and we have Feijoo with support of Vox for the next decade or more.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12161 Posts
November 25 2023 09:09 GMT
#27657
Unfortunately under neoliberal systems it's extremely hard for electoralism to improve things in a meaningful way
No will to live, no wish to die
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6205 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-11-25 10:37:18
November 25 2023 10:35 GMT
#27658
On November 25 2023 17:05 WombaT wrote:
Right so in addition to recent right wing riots in Dublin of all places, Geert Wilders and his PVV have come out as the largest party in recent Dutch elections.

Is there like any positive political news across Europe these days? Feels like we’ve been collectively eating shit for at least half a decade.

To my Dutch, or otherwise informed Liquidians, how likely is his party to actually form a government and how much would one view his attempts to soften his image and project a more moderate stance as something that might continue in governance, or was merely an exercise in improving electability prior to reversion?

The short answer is that Wilders forming a government is the most likely scenario at this moment. The moderation in his stance will have to continue since he'll need to find multiple coalition partners and one of them will almost certainly be NSC. NSC has campaigned on good governance and the rule of law.

The long answer requires more explanation about our political system. Similar to most parliamentary democracies we have two legislative chambers. The tweede kamer (similar to house of commons) and eerste kamer (similar to the house of lords). The tweede kamer elects the government and is the primary legislator but for any law to pass it also has to pass in the eerste kamer as well. Seats in the tweede kamer are elected via proportional representation and there's no minimum threshold. So if you have enough votes for one seat you're in. Elections for the eerste kamer are a little more complex but for practical purposes it works the same.

In practice this has led to two things:
1. Every since Pim Fortuyn at the start of the 2000s we've had a large segment of the population voting for right wing protest parties. We've had LPF, PVV, BBB, and FVD.
2. Because it's so easy to get in we have a large amount of parties in our parliament. 15 after this election. Parties are also relatively small so 3-4 party coalitions are standard nowadays.

For the PVV this means that to form a government they need a majority in the tweede kamer. For that they have to coalition with other parties. As you can imagine the centre-right parties are their most realistic option. The only two parties on the right big enough are NSC and VVD. VVD is the party from Rutte and similar to the Tories in the UK (conservative liberal). VVD has already said they won't directly join a government but they'll consider supporting a minority government. NSC is a new party from an experienced politician called Omtzigt. He basically built his party and his brand around good governance and the rule of law. It's not something he can compromise on. So for Wilders to have any chance of forming a government he'll have to scrap the most extreme parts of his programme.

Additionally, to pass any laws they'll also need a majority in the eerste kamer. In the last election BBB (farmers party) was the right wing protest party and became the biggest. They're right-wing but not as extreme as Wilders. Even with the BBB they still have no majority there. So they'll need to gain the support of BBB and then 1-2 other parties as well.

So to conclude to implement any of his policies he'll need to cooperate with a large amount of other parties. Those parties aren't as extreme and operate mostly according to the rule of law.

Anyway that this is the most likely does not mean it will happen. Negotiations will take months at the least and what will happen is unpredictable.

Edit: To be clear I still think it's a disastrous result. Just not as damaging as you might expect. It's not like Trump who was able to take over one of the parties in a two-party system.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25075 Posts
November 25 2023 18:21 GMT
#27659
On November 25 2023 19:35 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 25 2023 17:05 WombaT wrote:
Right so in addition to recent right wing riots in Dublin of all places, Geert Wilders and his PVV have come out as the largest party in recent Dutch elections.

Is there like any positive political news across Europe these days? Feels like we’ve been collectively eating shit for at least half a decade.

To my Dutch, or otherwise informed Liquidians, how likely is his party to actually form a government and how much would one view his attempts to soften his image and project a more moderate stance as something that might continue in governance, or was merely an exercise in improving electability prior to reversion?

The short answer is that Wilders forming a government is the most likely scenario at this moment. The moderation in his stance will have to continue since he'll need to find multiple coalition partners and one of them will almost certainly be NSC. NSC has campaigned on good governance and the rule of law.

The long answer requires more explanation about our political system. Similar to most parliamentary democracies we have two legislative chambers. The tweede kamer (similar to house of commons) and eerste kamer (similar to the house of lords). The tweede kamer elects the government and is the primary legislator but for any law to pass it also has to pass in the eerste kamer as well. Seats in the tweede kamer are elected via proportional representation and there's no minimum threshold. So if you have enough votes for one seat you're in. Elections for the eerste kamer are a little more complex but for practical purposes it works the same.

In practice this has led to two things:
1. Every since Pim Fortuyn at the start of the 2000s we've had a large segment of the population voting for right wing protest parties. We've had LPF, PVV, BBB, and FVD.
2. Because it's so easy to get in we have a large amount of parties in our parliament. 15 after this election. Parties are also relatively small so 3-4 party coalitions are standard nowadays.

For the PVV this means that to form a government they need a majority in the tweede kamer. For that they have to coalition with other parties. As you can imagine the centre-right parties are their most realistic option. The only two parties on the right big enough are NSC and VVD. VVD is the party from Rutte and similar to the Tories in the UK (conservative liberal). VVD has already said they won't directly join a government but they'll consider supporting a minority government. NSC is a new party from an experienced politician called Omtzigt. He basically built his party and his brand around good governance and the rule of law. It's not something he can compromise on. So for Wilders to have any chance of forming a government he'll have to scrap the most extreme parts of his programme.

Additionally, to pass any laws they'll also need a majority in the eerste kamer. In the last election BBB (farmers party) was the right wing protest party and became the biggest. They're right-wing but not as extreme as Wilders. Even with the BBB they still have no majority there. So they'll need to gain the support of BBB and then 1-2 other parties as well.

So to conclude to implement any of his policies he'll need to cooperate with a large amount of other parties. Those parties aren't as extreme and operate mostly according to the rule of law.

Anyway that this is the most likely does not mean it will happen. Negotiations will take months at the least and what will happen is unpredictable.

Edit: To be clear I still think it's a disastrous result. Just not as damaging as you might expect. It's not like Trump who was able to take over one of the parties in a two-party system.

Thanks for the rather comprehensive reply, most informative!

What’s Wilders and his party’s appeal, is it just standard right wing populism or is there a particular flavour to it? I’ve only ever really encountered his anti-Islam rhetoric really via our media over here.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6205 Posts
November 27 2023 13:46 GMT
#27660
Even more anti Islam than usual. For the rest it's standard far right. Out of EU, no euro, climate change is not important, etc. The mistake of the other parties is that the election was too much about immigration. E.g. many parties pointed to the immigration as a big cause of the housing crisis. That's a subject you're never winning since less immigration has been their primary stand point since the founding of the PVV.
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