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On June 28 2015 06:48 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 06:16 Taguchi wrote:Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not. The most hefty cuts seem to effect pensions, but the current situation: + Show Spoiler +doesn't really seem sustainable. Bringing it down somewhat seems unavoidable given the economic situation right now.
Thx for that chart. Europe clearly has problems with funding the retirement of the babyboom generation.
Italy's situation seems to be even worse then Greece,there might come a lot of pressure on Italy coming months I fear.
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On June 28 2015 09:52 radscorpion9 wrote:
So its finally happening, after so many years of hearing that greece will default its actually going to occur. I wonder if after all of this time Europe has built up some kind of protection from potential ripple effects, I guess we'll see very soon
We have available to us a piece of technology that allows us to create infinite euros at almost zero cost.
We just started pumping 1200 billion euros into the treasury markets, (gratz to those who where allowed to unload at 0% interest) That's our safety net I guess. If its enough remains to be seen.
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On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side.
I don't know. It could just be a mistake; these guys mostly ARE amateurs, with little/no past work in government or effective management. Some claim it's so if the decisions are made by the Europeople as expected, by the deadline, they (greek gov) can complain that democracy wasn't given a chance, and use that to try to cover their failure.
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On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side.
No, that would be about the extension of the program if the eurogroup had approved it yesterday.
Unless both sides accept a proposal there is no point to go through the european parliaments.
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On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side.
Imo their entire play is based on the thought that the Eurozone will never let Greece default, when time ran out they panicked and turned to a referendum to wash their hands of the mess but setting it up takes time and if they decided to do this Friday evening there was no way they could have it ready by Monday.
The fact that Greek negotiators will still in talks with the EU on Friday night and were recalled during the talks when Varoufakis made his Referendum announcement leads me to believe it really was a last minute desperation decision.
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On June 28 2015 10:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Monday is going to be a market bloodbath. Italy and Spain... who knows.
If it's a bloodbath (talking 1-1.5% divergence over bunds or anything more than that in a day which would mean full blown contagion), game over Greece wins. There will be a deal along the lines of the Greek proposal then (differences are small enough already anyway). But I don't think there'll be a bloodbath yet, as nothing is still finalized regarding Greece. Over months... who knows. Over years, euro as currently constructed is toast and we'll either federate or split.
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at this point i'm hoping Greece will split/leave just to see if they can make it; they would set some example if they will.
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On June 28 2015 19:16 xM(Z wrote:
at this point i'm hoping Greece will split/leave just to see if they can make it; they would set some example if they will.
Yeah they'd become even poorer than what they are already, that'd be a wonderful example to follow for the anti-Euro supporters in other countries
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sure, you can try and guess an outcome if it makes you feel better/right-er.
i'd be more interested in if they'll be happier rather than poorer though.
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Greece standard is unnatural for this region. Look at the surrounding countries and look at Greece.
They have been living on credit for ages. Now its time to pay it back. Greece have been bailed out for 200 years from the west and they counted for that to continue but i guess they have to fix their shit now.
All governments here are corrupt and incompentent but they are at fault as much as the average citizen who will find a way to fuck up the government and evade tax payment.
There are many nations on the Balkan and they fight between each other for any stupid reason but we are the same in our trash mentality. Dunno if its 500 years of Ottoman rule or something else but we are really far from Europe even if we belong geographically to it.
Greece have to go through a period of suffering to heal and grow. If everyone can live on 300-400 euros of average income and even worse pensions around them why they cant manage ?
Every country have been miserable on the Balkans but they kinda get used to the situation but Greece has been on their high horse and now they have to come to the misery and probably thats more hard and the misery itself.
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On June 28 2015 19:34 xM(Z wrote:
sure, you can try and guess an outcome if it makes you feel better/right-er.
i'd be more interested in if they'll be happier rather than poorer though.
Well, at least we'll be out in the open air. 
+ Show Spoiler +
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On June 28 2015 19:25 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 19:16 xM(Z wrote:
at this point i'm hoping Greece will split/leave just to see if they can make it; they would set some example if they will. Yeah they'd become even poorer than what they are already, that'd be a wonderful example to follow for the anti-Euro supporters in other countries
The irony is that compared to some other EU countries Greece is actually not all that poor. It's just that its population (understandably) has a hard time lowering their living standards.
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ECB's probably going to cut ELA today. Basically the beginning of the end for Greece, they won't be able to open banks Monday (or even all week).
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Whew, a reprieve, ECB keeping aid to banks unchanged, sparing the capital controls and bank holiday for a bit. Still not clear what the referendum is gong to do, at some point sooner rather then later the ECB will be obligated to stop the ELA.
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On June 28 2015 21:23 hoemuffin wrote:
Whew, a reprieve, ECB keeping aid to banks unchanged, sparing the capital controls and bank holiday for a bit. Still not clear what the referendum is gong to do, at some point sooner rather then later the ECB will be obligated to stop the ELA.
I don't think capital controls are avoidable unless ECB raises ELA. Capital flight yesterday alone was 1 bn - and that was ATMs, imagine what happens if bigger sums start flowing out Monday.
I view this move as the ECB pushing for cap controls, but not doing so explicitly to maintain credibility as a non-political institution. And why push for cap controls? Well, picture this: You are a pensioner/wage earner living month-by-month without any extra deposits, not versed in economics, hearing horror stories from all media, seeing people around you pulling all their money out of the banks as soon as they can. Then you get paid at the start of the month and... you can't withdraw all that money, bank tells you you can only withdraw 100 euros. Do you really vote NO?
To be sure, if ECB raises ELA to accommodate an unhindered referendum it essentially sponsors a bank run. Caught between a rock and a hard place. So the most prudent action regardless is probably the one they took.
Scela, reason that the rest of the balkans is so badly off compared to Greece is that the rest of the balkans was in the Soviet sphere of influence and haven't caught up yet (not to mention Yugoslavia's mess during the 90s - even now ethnic tensions exist). Your own country can thank the bloody idiot Samaras (yes, today's ND president) who overthrew the ND Mitsotakis government back in 1993 so they wouldn't accept 'Northern Republic of Macedonia' as your country's name. It's not THE reason for your current mess but it's up there. Albania managed to have a democratic transition of power for the first time ever during last elections, Bulgaria was being cut off from EU aid in 2008 because it was viewed as a country governed by the mafia, so on and so forth.
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The ECB didn't extend any further relief via the ELA, but there was some chatter that they were going to completely stop it. That would have made it impossible to open the banks Monday.
Cap controls ARE coming. By not increasing the ELA, Greek banks are going to run out of cash very soon. The actual vote is almost nonsensical at this point, isn't it? They're voting for a deal that no longer exists. Even if they vote yes on the referendum, its got to back to the local governing bodies of the various EU members, zero chance that gets done before Greece defaults on the IMF (It should be noted that no country, not even Argentina, has defaulted on the IMF). It is highly unlikely the Germans, Austrians, et al would look kindly on the deal, to say nothing of the poorer Eastern European countries.
Tsiparas appears to be betting that his party has a better chance of staying in power out of the Euro then in the Euro. He's probably not wrong, but boy is it going to suck if you live in Greece and don't have the capital/foresight to have your money elsewhere. The Greek Finance minister might be an expert on the theory of game theory, but Merkel and Draghi are experts in the application...
Bank Holidays are the worst holidays.
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What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well.
What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead 
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On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead
Because money makes the world go round and this is going to keep happening time and time again until the middle and lower classes have had enough and bankers get strung up on streetlights.
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On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead
Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London.
However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate.
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On June 28 2015 22:57 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London. However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate.
Hence the Greek bailout in 2010. Stay tuned for Italy!
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03137/How_much_public_mo_3137104k.jpg)
