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On June 28 2015 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 05:41 Taguchi wrote:
No, sorry, this line appears both in the Greek proposal and the creditor proposal in the documents I linked to last page: 'increase the rate of the tonnage tax and phase out special tax treatments of the shipping industry. '
Fun game! Spot the countries that didn't commit austerity seppukku! (or, well, not as much as others)
Then why are they not simply accepting the creditor proposal? Most of the stuff doesn't seem to be outrageous. Also Ireland committed a lot of austerity seppukku and they seem to be doing somewhat okay at least. Spain and Portugal, too. Greece seems to have isolated itself right now.
It's been 6 years man, all these countries are still below 2008 levels. Greece is an outlier - the level of austerity was also an outlier (acc to Krugman's models he posted in his NYT column at some point, austerity Greece went through perfectly explains the level of contraction the economy went through but I don't have a link right now).
Basically the proposal by creditors is politically poisonous because it replaces about 900mln of tax on big (over 500k) corporate profits with some extra pension cuts, removal of -30% VAT on islands (most EU countries have this on their islands for obvious reasons - many Syriza MPs called for the removal of lowered VAT on islands like Myconos and Santorini however) and brilliant lines such as this: 'require 100 percent advance payments for corporate income as well as
individual business income tax by end-2016' - it doesn't take a wild imagination to understand what this sort of change will do to already strapped Greek businesses.
Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not.
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On June 28 2015 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 05:41 Taguchi wrote:
No, sorry, this line appears both in the Greek proposal and the creditor proposal in the documents I linked to last page: 'increase the rate of the tonnage tax and phase out special tax treatments of the shipping industry. '
Fun game! Spot the countries that didn't commit austerity seppukku! (or, well, not as much as others)
Then why are they not simply accepting the creditor proposal? Most of the stuff doesn't seem to be outrageous. Also Ireland committed a lot of austerity seppukku and they seem to be doing somewhat okay at least. Spain and Portugal, too. Greece seems to have isolated itself right now.
It had been 6 years man (this is 2014 numbers~), all these countries are still below 2008 levels. Greece is an outlier - the level of austerity was also an outlier (acc to Krugman's models he posted in his NYT column at some point, austerity Greece went through perfectly explains the level of contraction the economy went through but I don't have a link right now).
Basically the proposal by creditors is politically poisonous because it replaces about 900mln of tax on big (over 500k) corporate profits with some extra pension cuts, removal of -30% VAT on islands (most EU countries have this on their islands for obvious reasons - many Syriza MPs called for the removal of lowered VAT on islands like Myconos and Santorini however) and brilliant lines such as this: 'require 100 percent advance payments for corporate income as well as
individual business income tax by end-2016' - it doesn't take a wild imagination to understand what this sort of change will do to already strapped Greek businesses.
Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not.
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accela -> I think you're the one that's listening to biased media. And I noted others responses to your allegations.
I have nothing more to say to you, as I do not think there is possible agreement between us. From my POV you're too biased to see. You probably think the same of me.
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On June 28 2015 06:15 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:On June 28 2015 05:41 Taguchi wrote:
No, sorry, this line appears both in the Greek proposal and the creditor proposal in the documents I linked to last page: 'increase the rate of the tonnage tax and phase out special tax treatments of the shipping industry. '
Fun game! Spot the countries that didn't commit austerity seppukku! (or, well, not as much as others)
Then why are they not simply accepting the creditor proposal? Most of the stuff doesn't seem to be outrageous. Also Ireland committed a lot of austerity seppukku and they seem to be doing somewhat okay at least. Spain and Portugal, too. Greece seems to have isolated itself right now. It's been 6 years man, all these countries are still below 2008 levels. Greece is an outlier - the level of austerity was also an outlier (acc to Krugman's models he posted in his NYT column at some point, austerity Greece went through perfectly explains the level of contraction the economy went through but I don't have a link right now). Basically the proposal by creditors is politically poisonous because it replaces about 900mln of tax on big (over 500k) corporate profits with some extra pension cuts, removal of -30% VAT on islands (most EU countries have this on their islands for obvious reasons - many Syriza MPs called for the removal of lowered VAT on islands like Myconos and Santorini however) and brilliant lines such as this: 'require 100 percent advance payments for corporate income as well as individual business income tax by end-2016' - it doesn't take a wild imagination to understand what this sort of change will do to already strapped Greek businesses. Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not.
Gee maybe all these different demands on taxes are because your country has a history of tax evasion.
Maybe they want taxes to be payed upfront because otherwise they are not payed.
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On June 28 2015 06:15 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:On June 28 2015 05:41 Taguchi wrote:
No, sorry, this line appears both in the Greek proposal and the creditor proposal in the documents I linked to last page: 'increase the rate of the tonnage tax and phase out special tax treatments of the shipping industry. '
Fun game! Spot the countries that didn't commit austerity seppukku! (or, well, not as much as others)
Then why are they not simply accepting the creditor proposal? Most of the stuff doesn't seem to be outrageous. Also Ireland committed a lot of austerity seppukku and they seem to be doing somewhat okay at least. Spain and Portugal, too. Greece seems to have isolated itself right now. It's been 6 years man, all these countries are still below 2008 levels. Greece is an outlier - the level of austerity was also an outlier (acc to Krugman's models he posted in his NYT column at some point, austerity Greece went through perfectly explains the level of contraction the economy went through but I don't have a link right now). Basically the proposal by creditors is politically poisonous because it replaces about 900mln of tax on big (over 500k) corporate profits with some extra pension cuts, removal of -30% VAT on islands (most EU countries have this on their islands for obvious reasons - many Syriza MPs called for the removal of lowered VAT on islands like Myconos and Santorini however) and brilliant lines such as this: 'require 100 percent advance payments for corporate income as well as individual business income tax by end-2016' - it doesn't take a wild imagination to understand what this sort of change will do to already strapped Greek businesses. Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not.
I agree that the creditor proposals are not optimal and that they should have been more flexible, but all of this could have been avoided if the Greek govt got their minds made up 3 months ago, and then made a referendum on their proposal vs the creditor proposal. The way it went now is just pathetic, the greek govt wasted what, half a year, on pie in the sky solutions with magical budget gains. Greece should reform, it has an unsustainable economic model and yet I haven't seen serious solutions from Syriza since they've been in power.
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On June 28 2015 06:19 zlefin wrote:
accela -> I think you're the one that's listening to biased media. And I noted others responses to your allegations.
I have nothing more to say to you, as I do not think there is possible agreement between us. From my POV you're too biased to see. You probably think the same of me.
Well i want to assure you that the greek media groups are in total support of the IMF/EU programs.
The oligarchs that own those media groups are known for decades to be involved to shaddy businesses with old greek governments, billions of euros lost over there. In fact they never paid a single cent even for the tv channel frequencies they use.
It's going to be the first time with this government and they are obviously rather hostile:
+ Show Spoiler +
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On June 28 2015 06:16 Taguchi wrote:Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not.
The most hefty cuts seem to effect pensions, but the current situation:
+ Show Spoiler +
doesn't really seem sustainable. Bringing it down somewhat seems unavoidable given the economic situation right now.
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On June 28 2015 06:31 Derez wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 06:15 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:On June 28 2015 05:41 Taguchi wrote:
No, sorry, this line appears both in the Greek proposal and the creditor proposal in the documents I linked to last page: 'increase the rate of the tonnage tax and phase out special tax treatments of the shipping industry. '
Fun game! Spot the countries that didn't commit austerity seppukku! (or, well, not as much as others)
Then why are they not simply accepting the creditor proposal? Most of the stuff doesn't seem to be outrageous. Also Ireland committed a lot of austerity seppukku and they seem to be doing somewhat okay at least. Spain and Portugal, too. Greece seems to have isolated itself right now. It's been 6 years man, all these countries are still below 2008 levels. Greece is an outlier - the level of austerity was also an outlier (acc to Krugman's models he posted in his NYT column at some point, austerity Greece went through perfectly explains the level of contraction the economy went through but I don't have a link right now). Basically the proposal by creditors is politically poisonous because it replaces about 900mln of tax on big (over 500k) corporate profits with some extra pension cuts, removal of -30% VAT on islands (most EU countries have this on their islands for obvious reasons - many Syriza MPs called for the removal of lowered VAT on islands like Myconos and Santorini however) and brilliant lines such as this: 'require 100 percent advance payments for corporate income as well as individual business income tax by end-2016' - it doesn't take a wild imagination to understand what this sort of change will do to already strapped Greek businesses. Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not. I agree that the creditor proposals are not optimal and that they should have been more flexible, but all of this could have been avoided if the Greek govt got their minds made up 3 months ago, and then made a referendum on their proposal vs the creditor proposal. The way it went now is just pathetic, the greek govt wasted what, half a year, on pie in the sky solutions with magical budget gains. Greece should reform, it has an unsustainable economic model and yet I haven't seen serious solutions from Syriza since they've been in power.
I agree, fully 
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On June 28 2015 06:48 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 06:16 Taguchi wrote:Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not. The most hefty cuts seem to effect pensions, but the current situation: + Show Spoiler +doesn't really seem sustainable. Bringing it down somewhat seems unavoidable given the economic situation right now.
From what I gather, Greece does not have any social security for the unemployed, so families rely on the very high pensions to sustain younger family members. I saw a graphic (don't have the link anymore, sorry) that showed, that if you count all social security spending together, the numbers are put into perspective and Greece's spending is rather average in comparison.That seems a rather archaic system to me, and certainly needs reform in the long run, but under these circumstances cutting the pensions further without introducing anything for the unemployed hurts the economy more than it helps (not to speak of the humanitarian repercussions this would have).
What's way more pressing is tax collection and corruption - you cannot run a state without proper tax collection in place and nepotism rampant all over. I would have expected a left government to be more agile to implement measures targetting these areas, but alas, the Tsipras/Kammenos/Varoufakis government seems to be all about populism, playing political poker and juvenile finger pointing, and just as corrupt as the governments before them.
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So apparently it's not over.
Dutch Finance Minister & Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem who earlier claimed that they decided to not extend the bailout program and cut off Greece now have changed their minds and now claims that the discussion process still is active and that Greece almost went back to discuss it further but was out of time for today.
However if they can't agree about something by the end of this month, then it is really over. They still won't accept Greece making a vote as a deciding factor.
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On June 28 2015 06:31 Derez wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 06:15 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:On June 28 2015 05:41 Taguchi wrote:
No, sorry, this line appears both in the Greek proposal and the creditor proposal in the documents I linked to last page: 'increase the rate of the tonnage tax and phase out special tax treatments of the shipping industry. '
Fun game! Spot the countries that didn't commit austerity seppukku! (or, well, not as much as others)
Then why are they not simply accepting the creditor proposal? Most of the stuff doesn't seem to be outrageous. Also Ireland committed a lot of austerity seppukku and they seem to be doing somewhat okay at least. Spain and Portugal, too. Greece seems to have isolated itself right now. It's been 6 years man, all these countries are still below 2008 levels. Greece is an outlier - the level of austerity was also an outlier (acc to Krugman's models he posted in his NYT column at some point, austerity Greece went through perfectly explains the level of contraction the economy went through but I don't have a link right now). Basically the proposal by creditors is politically poisonous because it replaces about 900mln of tax on big (over 500k) corporate profits with some extra pension cuts, removal of -30% VAT on islands (most EU countries have this on their islands for obvious reasons - many Syriza MPs called for the removal of lowered VAT on islands like Myconos and Santorini however) and brilliant lines such as this: 'require 100 percent advance payments for corporate income as well as individual business income tax by end-2016' - it doesn't take a wild imagination to understand what this sort of change will do to already strapped Greek businesses. Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not. I agree that the creditor proposals are not optimal and that they should have been more flexible, but all of this could have been avoided if the Greek govt got their minds made up 3 months ago, and then made a referendum on their proposal vs the creditor proposal. The way it went now is just pathetic, the greek govt wasted what, half a year, on pie in the sky solutions with magical budget gains. Greece should reform, it has an unsustainable economic model and yet I haven't seen serious solutions from Syriza since they've been in power.
I agree, fully
On June 28 2015 06:48 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 06:16 Taguchi wrote:Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not. The most hefty cuts seem to effect pensions, but the current situation: + Show Spoiler +doesn't really seem sustainable. Bringing it down somewhat seems unavoidable given the economic situation right now.
GDP% spent in pensions = Pension expenditure / GDP. If pension expenditure is kept at par and GDP grows by 25%, this number becomes 0.75 of the previous value. If pension expenditure is reduced by 30% and GDP drops by 30%, this number remains at par. If GDP drops as a result of the pension cuts you have a deflationary spiral (this is what actually happened). You have a pretty clear picture as to what happened to Greek GDP lately. Further contributing to this problem are such factors as a wave of early retirements during the first and second memorandum as people feared they might lose various rights (the fact they could retire, lump-sum payment that comes with retirement and so on). Prior to the memoranda, situation was untenable mid to longterm but nowhere near this bad.
The solution to this, unsurprisingly, is not to slash pensions horizontally (which is what institutions ask), since this may well trigger one more recessionary round. It is to plug whatever holes there are in the system (creditors desire this, greek govt has agreed, example would be unifying pension funds so there are less functional costs overall) and introduce various longterm reforms such as raising minimum age (creditors desire, Greek govt agrees). But apparently getting 900mln from big business profits is far less preferable to taking it from pensioners - and hey, look at that GDP% spent figure, look how big it is! Sure, no smokescreen protecting big money here, no sir.
On June 28 2015 07:00 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 06:48 Nyxisto wrote:On June 28 2015 06:16 Taguchi wrote:Seriously, read the proposals, or even better, read this document, helpfully annotated with red lines where creditors demand changes, then read the revised Greek proposal that accepts a bunch of these changes, then read the final creditor offer to see where they yielded and where not. The most hefty cuts seem to effect pensions, but the current situation: + Show Spoiler +doesn't really seem sustainable. Bringing it down somewhat seems unavoidable given the economic situation right now. From what I gather, Greece does not have any social security for the unemployed, so families rely on the very high pensions to sustain younger family members. I saw a graphic (don't have the link anymore, sorry) that showed, that if you count all social security spending together, the numbers are put into perspective and Greece is rather average on that part.That seems a rather archaic system to me, and certainly needs reform in the long run, but under these circumstances cutting the pensions further without introducing anything for the unemployed hurts the economy more than it helps (not to speak of the humanitarian repercussions this would have). What's way more pressing is tax collection and corruption - you cannot run a state without proper tax collection in place and nepotism rampant all over. I would have expected a left government to be more agile to implement measures targetting these areas, but alas, the Tsipras/Kammenos/Varoufakis government seems to be all about populism, playing political poker and juvenile finger pointing, and just as corrupt as the governments before them.
The part about wasting 5 months without doing much at all about combating tax evasion, specifically VAT, irks me to no end. I don't agree about political poker and populism and so on but this was really inexcusable. If they had delivered on these fronts they wouldn't have to face such harsh measures now. There are ~200 tax auditors in Greece. That is for the ENTIRE country. They're supposed to handle all the on site checks and so on. Beyond ridiculous, not yet rectified. And Syriza excuse is rather weak - they claim creditors absolutely required no legislation involving finances at all during negotiations as it would be seen as a unilateral move and cause negotiation breakdown but this is clearly bollocks - they legislated other stuff (like the 100 instalment scheme) just fine for example.
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On June 28 2015 07:03 Integra wrote:
So apparently it's not over.
Dutch Finance Minister & Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem who earlier claimed that they decided to not extend the bailout program and cut off Greece now have changed their minds and now claims that the discussion process still is active and that Greece almost went back to discuss it further but was out of time for today.
However if they can't agree about something by the end of this month, then it is really over. They still won't accept Greece making a vote as a deciding factor.
I don't get it anymore either. There was also talk that Greece would still be part of the Eurozone after defaulting.
Sounds like both sides are scrambling to make sense of the situation.
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On June 28 2015 07:09 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 07:03 Integra wrote:
So apparently it's not over.
Dutch Finance Minister & Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem who earlier claimed that they decided to not extend the bailout program and cut off Greece now have changed their minds and now claims that the discussion process still is active and that Greece almost went back to discuss it further but was out of time for today.
However if they can't agree about something by the end of this month, then it is really over. They still won't accept Greece making a vote as a deciding factor.
I don't get it anymore either. There was also talk that Greece would still be part of the Eurozone after defaulting. Sounds like both sides are scrambling to make sense of the situation.
There is no legal mechanism to exit the euro - you currently need to exit the EU altogether to accomplish that. Might sound trivial but when there're lawsuits involved...
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On June 28 2015 07:04 Taguchi wrote:
GDP% spent in pensions = Pension expenditure / GDP. If pension expenditure is kept at par and GDP grows by 25%, this number becomes 0.75 of the previous value. If pension expenditure is reduced by 30% and GDP drops by 30%, this number remains at par. If GDP drops as a result of the pension cuts you have a deflationary spiral (this is what actually happened). You have a pretty clear picture as to what happened to Greek GDP lately.
I am aware that cutting spending logically reduces the GDP and thus the quota stays the same, but with the reverse logic we can solve the Greek crisis by having every unemployed person painting pictures of Angela Merkel.
What I wanted to point out is that the high pension quota points at misallocation of money. If it is indeed the case that the pension system acts as a substitute for other forms of social benefit then the system needs to be reworked. These kind of family dependency structures beg for abuse.
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On June 28 2015 07:12 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 07:04 Taguchi wrote:
GDP% spent in pensions = Pension expenditure / GDP. If pension expenditure is kept at par and GDP grows by 25%, this number becomes 0.75 of the previous value. If pension expenditure is reduced by 30% and GDP drops by 30%, this number remains at par. If GDP drops as a result of the pension cuts you have a deflationary spiral (this is what actually happened). You have a pretty clear picture as to what happened to Greek GDP lately.
I am aware that cutting spending logically reduces the GDP and thus the quota stays the same, but with the reverse logic we can solve the Greek crisis by having every unemployed person painting pictures of Angela Merkel. What I wanted to point out is that the high pension quota points at misallocation of money. If it is indeed the case that the pension system acts as a substitute for other forms of social benefit then the system needs to be reworked. These kind of family dependency structures beg for abuse.
All parties agree that system needs and will be reworked. Horizontal cuts in pensions is another thing - especially when they're there as a replacement for taxing corporate profits.
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Anxiously wait for the slow break down of the euro.
Don't disappoint me Greece... please vote right.
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So its finally happening, after so many years of hearing that greece will default its actually going to occur. I wonder if after all of this time Europe has built up some kind of protection from potential ripple effects, I guess we'll see very soon
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yes, it's the ECB. Draghi said he will buy "whatever is necessary" to stabilize the €. so even if investors run from portugal or other candidates, they will be saved.
But we still have some days left. maybe they reach an agreement at 1.7. at 1:30 or something like that.
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Monday is going to be a market bloodbath. Italy and Spain... who knows.
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I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/11541877_1502826070007446_2174221195710559525_n.jpg?oh=3f7d2c577169b933bef79f8f34fe16c7&oe=55E80707)
![[image loading]](http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03137/How_much_public_mo_3137104k.jpg)
