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On June 28 2015 23:24 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 22:57 maartendq wrote:On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead  Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London. However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate. Hence the Greek bailout in 2010. Stay tuned for Italy!
Who says Italy is gonna go bankrupt or gonna need a bailout? The same people who are pro austerity and showed to the entire world how to fuck up a country and a union? Those people are soooo trustworthy...
"Economists" have been saying Italy is gonna go bankrupt for the past 60 years, but wait for it... it still hasn't happened yet. Keep waiting and keep repeating the same things, maybe one day you'll say "I WAS RIGHT ZOMG!".
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On June 28 2015 15:55 accela wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side. No, that would be about the extension of the program if the eurogroup had approved it yesterday. Unless both sides accept a proposal there is no point to go through the european parliaments. We seem to talk at cross-purposes (or I don't understand your point fully).
They (the Greek gov) could have had a much stronger negotiation position, if they had brought in a referendum from the very beginning. So every time the IMF for example demanded higher tax rates on food or energy, the Greek could always deny saying 'we can't do that, people will never vote for it'. That is how you leverage your political power. And than whenever the IMF throws a tantrum you can take the high road and give a lecture on democracy and the will of the people and so on.
But they did not go this way. There was this very important dead-line of June 30th were they needed the extension of the current program at the latest, in order to stay solvent. And they apparently just blew it...
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No one was more surprised by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s call for a referendum than his team of negotiators in Brussels.
Shortly before midnight on Friday in the Belgian capital, the Greeks and representatives of the European Union and International Monetary Fund, tucked away in the EU Commission’s Charlemagne building, learned via Twitter that their efforts were in vain, according to an EU official.
It was the first they’d heard about it. They soon left the room, their attempts to thrash out a compromise in tatters.
Commission negotiators called their president, Jean-Claude Juncker, who had spent recent weeks in face-to-face talks with Tsipras. He hadn’t known about the vote either, the official said. A Greek government spokesman wasn’t immediately available for comment.
Up until then, the mood on both sides had been fairly positive, the official said. They were reaching agreement on a joint proposal to be presented to a meeting of finance ministry officials set for the next morning.
The document being prepared included new concessions by the creditor institutions; they had dropped a demand that Greece raise sales tax for hotels.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis was interviewed by local television at about 8:30 p.m. in Athens, sounding an optimistic note about a deal.
All the talk was preempted four hours later by the stunner Tsipras delivered upon his return from weeklong negotiations in Brussels. He announced the referendum for July 5 and advocated a “no” vote, describing the last proposal made by creditors as a violation of EU rules. Greek lawmakers cleared the way for the ballot in the early hours of Sunday.
source
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On June 29 2015 00:04 lord_nibbler wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 15:55 accela wrote:On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side. No, that would be about the extension of the program if the eurogroup had approved it yesterday. Unless both sides accept a proposal there is no point to go through the european parliaments. We seem to talk at cross-purposes (or I don't understand your point fully). They (the Greek gov) could have had a much stronger negotiation position, if they had brought in a referendum from the very beginning. So every time the IMF for example demanded higher tax rates on food or energy, the Greek could always deny saying 'we can't do that, people will never vote for it'. That is how you leverage your political power. And than whenever the IMF throws a tantrum you can take the high road and give a lecture on democracy and the will of the people and so on. But they did not go this way. There was this very important dead-line of June 30th were they needed the extension of the current program at the latest, in order to stay solvent. And they apparently just blew it...
I'd be willing to bet money on the fact that that was planned to safe face / as PR in Greece and that Tsipras wanted out of the Euro at that point or because he thought that's going to happen anyways so he pulled the plug himself.
The IMF already said they're not going with another delay no matter what way earlier in a statement so their deadline was set in stone. He knew that it's literally impossible to get a deal through multiple, including germany's, parliaments to a date after that IMF deadline if all they have is "give us some more time" so that the guys in brussels were left with no options because of exactly that.
There's no way they didn't realize that. So my guess would be it's a stunt to get out of this by doing a referendum for the sake of doing a referendum to look good.
On the other hand I'm fairly sure the finance ministers are happy to have this as a reason to stop talks as well. It makes for a better explanation to stop talks than "we couldn't find an agreement" if the outlooks for a deal had been grim anyways (that obviously depends on their judgement, no idea)
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On June 29 2015 00:04 lord_nibbler wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 15:55 accela wrote:On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side. No, that would be about the extension of the program if the eurogroup had approved it yesterday. Unless both sides accept a proposal there is no point to go through the european parliaments. We seem to talk at cross-purposes (or I don't understand your point fully). They (the Greek gov) could have had a much stronger negotiation position, if they had brought in a referendum from the very beginning. So every time the IMF for example demanded higher tax rates on food or energy, the Greek could always deny saying 'we can't do that, people will never vote for it'. That is how you leverage your political power. And than whenever the IMF throws a tantrum you can take the high road and give a lecture on democracy and the will of the people and so on. But they did not go this way. There was this very important dead-line of June 30th were they needed the extension of the current program at the latest, in order to stay solvent. And they apparently just blew it...
So you saying that they should have announced early that there would be a referendum whatever the proposal.
The idea for a referendum was on the table even before the last greek elections. The whole negotiation pretty much based on the recent results but there were always hints about a referentum or for snap elections.
The think is that in case of early announcing a referendum, the european "partners" for 6 months would be crying their crocodile tears (as they do right now) that Greece are blackmailing them and they would very fast answer by translating a potential referendum very early to a question for Grexit, so Syriza would be in bad position to negotate for months with a threat for a grexit hanging over their heads even if that threat was real or not.
Of course they could the same now, but now we are in the end game, 200/200 and deathballs about to get smashed
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What exactly is the referendum supposed to be about anyway as the proposals are off the table now?
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On June 28 2015 23:38 BlitzerSC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 23:24 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 22:57 maartendq wrote:On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London. However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate. Hence the Greek bailout in 2010. Stay tuned for Italy! Who says Italy is gonna go bankrupt or gonna need a bailout? The same people who are pro austerity and showed to the entire world how to fuck up a country and a union? Those people are soooo trustworthy... "Economists" have been saying Italy is gonna go bankrupt for the past 60 years, but wait for it... it still hasn't happened yet. Keep waiting and keep repeating the same things, maybe one day you'll say "I WAS RIGHT ZOMG!".
130%+ debt to gdp ratio and the rise of Beppe Grillo and friends say it. I don't think any official has ever said it and I do hope it won't ever come close to happening.
On June 29 2015 01:08 Nyxisto wrote:
What exactly is the referendum supposed to be about anyway as the proposals are off the table now?
Says who? All I've seen today is Juncker tweeting (in Greek even) that the Commission has released the final proposal on the table for the Greek people to inform themselves, Moscovici saying the deal remains on the table, Tusk talking about a possible summit, French and Italians scrambling for a deal. Schaeuble has wanted Grexit since 2010 and keeps getting overruled. Not to mention that the 'YES' result yields a lowly 1.33 at Ladbrokes - betting odds are pretty good indicators about these things usually. Why on earth would the troika back off a deal now and appear as the bad guys?
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On June 29 2015 01:08 Nyxisto wrote:
What exactly is the referendum supposed to be about anyway as the proposals are off the table now?
What is being said doesn't really matter at this point since no one is consistent or even seems to follow any kind of rules anymore.
Greece is both saying that referendum is all about the Greece people to decide if they should accept the deal or not and at the same time they are claiming that it's not about the proposal but rather a decision of Greece should stay in the EU at all.
EU on the other hand is no better and says two different things as well which at one hand claims that there is no agreed proposal upon to vote on and thus its of no use, this did not prevent them from to actually publish the very same document specifically calling out for the voters of Greece in hopes of them actually voting on it.... Source for the document ... because... it matters somehow... so ya...
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The deal is back on the table if Greece can manage to somehow deal with the IMF payment without money from Europe, which is supposed to be paid before te referendum happens. The IMF said they don't plan to extend the deadline any further, the several national parliaments will probably not vote for a blank check to pay for this one IMF payment that is due before having a deal on the table, which is why they announced that it's impossible before even trying to push it through parliaments to begin with.
If Greece however can pay this months IMF debt claim without even needing any money from Europe, or if the IMF does something about it, the referendum and that deal it is about surely is back on the table again.
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On June 29 2015 01:33 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2015 23:38 BlitzerSC wrote:On June 28 2015 23:24 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 22:57 maartendq wrote:On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London. However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate. Hence the Greek bailout in 2010. Stay tuned for Italy! Who says Italy is gonna go bankrupt or gonna need a bailout? The same people who are pro austerity and showed to the entire world how to fuck up a country and a union? Those people are soooo trustworthy... "Economists" have been saying Italy is gonna go bankrupt for the past 60 years, but wait for it... it still hasn't happened yet. Keep waiting and keep repeating the same things, maybe one day you'll say "I WAS RIGHT ZOMG!". 130%+ debt to gdp ratio and the rise of Beppe Grillo and friends say it. I don't think any official has ever said it and I do hope it won't ever come close to happening.
oh TIL rise of Beppe Grillo in my country, thanks for telling me. More like rise of Lega Nord. Oh and if LN is getting more votes is because our "friends" in bruxelles favourite hobby is to fuck around with every single industry my country has. So good riddance I say.
Debt doesn't mean much.
If nobody "official" ever said so then why do you go around spreading false fearmongering "news"?
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On June 29 2015 00:52 accela wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 00:04 lord_nibbler wrote:On June 28 2015 15:55 accela wrote:On June 28 2015 11:35 lord_nibbler wrote:
I really don't get the timing of this referendum, I thought Varoufakis and Co. were supposed to be good at 'playing this negotiation game'...
From what I have gathered a number of parliaments would have voted on the proposals on Monday or Tuesday. So why did the Greece gov not use a referendum on the same date as leverage?
Timing it a week too late looks like a real amateur mistake from their side. No, that would be about the extension of the program if the eurogroup had approved it yesterday. Unless both sides accept a proposal there is no point to go through the european parliaments. We seem to talk at cross-purposes (or I don't understand your point fully). They (the Greek gov) could have had a much stronger negotiation position, if they had brought in a referendum from the very beginning. So every time the IMF for example demanded higher tax rates on food or energy, the Greek could always deny saying 'we can't do that, people will never vote for it'. That is how you leverage your political power. And than whenever the IMF throws a tantrum you can take the high road and give a lecture on democracy and the will of the people and so on. But they did not go this way. There was this very important dead-line of June 30th were they needed the extension of the current program at the latest, in order to stay solvent. And they apparently just blew it... So you saying that they should have announced early that there would be a referendum whatever the proposal. The idea for a referendum was on the table even before the last greek elections. The whole negotiation pretty much based on the recent results but there were always hints about a referentum or for snap elections. The think is that in case of early announcing a referendum, the european "partners" for 6 months would be crying their crocodile tears (as they do right now) that Greece are blackmailing them and they would very fast answer by translating a potential referendum very early to a question for Grexit, so Syriza would be in bad position to negotate for months with a threat for a grexit hanging over their heads even if that threat was real or not. Again, I do not really get what you are saying. 
First, you say there were hints of a referendum, ok, but what is the point you want to make here?
That the troika should not act so surprised? But that is not even the problem IMO, it's the fact that after month of negotiations and setup of time tables, the Greek want to hold a referendum out of order.
This was pretty forward actually. In February they decided that, given the newly elected government and all that, they would stretch the negotiation time for the final tranche of the current 'rescue program' until the 28th of June at the very least. Then every national parliament that is required to vote on it (including the Geek parliament of course) would give its approval and we are good for a few month to talk about the next program or dept relief or whatever.
At any time during the last 4 month could the Greek have sad 'look we are going to have this referendum before our parliament vote' we just don't feel politically strong enough otherwise. And the troika would have had to accept it (sure, they would have protested, but who cares about that). But for the Greek government to come out and demand a referendum on the one week they can not do that because the timing is simply impossible, and then turn around and cry foul and 'they are humiliating us' is a bit rich to say the least.
Secondly, you write the troika would have quickly turned a properly announced referendum into a 'question for the Grexit', and again I am loss as to what you want to say here.
Of course a referendum would be a 'vote yes or you are out' deal. What else? I can't wrap my head around what a referendum could be about that would avoid this central question and still be meaningful.
And thirdly, and that is the most baffling to me, you say that the threat of a Grexit hanging over the negotiations would have put Syriza in a bad position on the table.
In what world do you live to not realize that this threat is not made up but very real? In what world does this possible outcome not play a role in the negotiation at every turn? I just can not understand what you try to say, like at all...
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On June 29 2015 02:12 BlitzerSC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 01:33 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 23:38 BlitzerSC wrote:On June 28 2015 23:24 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 22:57 maartendq wrote:On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London. However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate. Hence the Greek bailout in 2010. Stay tuned for Italy! Who says Italy is gonna go bankrupt or gonna need a bailout? The same people who are pro austerity and showed to the entire world how to fuck up a country and a union? Those people are soooo trustworthy... "Economists" have been saying Italy is gonna go bankrupt for the past 60 years, but wait for it... it still hasn't happened yet. Keep waiting and keep repeating the same things, maybe one day you'll say "I WAS RIGHT ZOMG!". 130%+ debt to gdp ratio and the rise of Beppe Grillo and friends say it. I don't think any official has ever said it and I do hope it won't ever come close to happening. Debt doesn't mean much.
Debt doesn't mean much... when you have control over liquidity, interest rates, inflation. It's not the case for Italy (and Greece, and every euro zone country except germany since they rule us basically). Don't misunderstand me, I love Italy and its economy is actually pretty good in some regard (it kept a strong industry, which most other OCDE were not able to - like the UK or France), but it's in a pretty deep hole due to the euro (like most southern country, France included).
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This would be a farce if it wasn't a tragedy and the part played by Germany is just shameful. While I know that this will not convince anyone to change his mind, I recommend this post by Varoufakis especially to those of a different mind just to get some perspective.
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silynx, Greece had more than enough time to plan referenda sooner; rather than this shallow attempt at politics they're doing by timing it now to stall.
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On June 29 2015 03:20 zlefin wrote:
silynx, Greece had more than enough time to plan referenda sooner; rather than this shallow attempt at politics they're doing by timing it now to stall.
Ho my god they are stalling for a few days, it's a cheap tactic.
What do they gain from stalling ?
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On June 29 2015 03:23 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 03:20 zlefin wrote:
silynx, Greece had more than enough time to plan referenda sooner; rather than this shallow attempt at politics they're doing by timing it now to stall. Ho my god they are stalling for a few days, it's a cheap tactic. What do they gain from stalling ?
they gain the ability to blame the people instead of their own incompetence.
If they wanted a public mandate they could have done it a week ago, 2 weeks ago, any point in time that is not after the deadline.
This isn't a calculated move to come to a solution, its a desperation play by a man who has seen his bluff called.
The fact that Greek negotiators were still talking to the Eurozone working on a draft when they learned about the referendum from their twitter and discovered their work was pointless shows how much preparation went into it.
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On June 29 2015 03:34 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 03:23 WhiteDog wrote:On June 29 2015 03:20 zlefin wrote:
silynx, Greece had more than enough time to plan referenda sooner; rather than this shallow attempt at politics they're doing by timing it now to stall. Ho my god they are stalling for a few days, it's a cheap tactic. What do they gain from stalling ? they gain the ability to blame the people instead of their own incompetence. If they wanted a public mandate they could have done it a week ago, 2 weeks ago, any point in time that is not after the deadline. This isn't a calculated move to come to a solution, its a desperation play by a man who has seen his bluff called. The fact that Greek negotiators were still talking to the Eurozone working on a draft when they learned about the referendum from their twitter and discovered their work was pointless shows how much preparation went into it.
You're making it seem like it's a question of communication (it's not my fault it's them, blablabla). I'm not sure you understood, but it's a real problem that is being negotiated, not some secondary deal on obvious matters.
I got two weeks to think when I took my first loan, I guess having two more days for Greece to decide if they are really ready to continue follow the stupidity of the european institution is okay.
Plus, you can propose the people to vote on something that has not yet been proposed. Just embrace democracy.
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On June 29 2015 03:13 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 02:12 BlitzerSC wrote:On June 29 2015 01:33 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 23:38 BlitzerSC wrote:On June 28 2015 23:24 Taguchi wrote:On June 28 2015 22:57 maartendq wrote:On June 28 2015 22:42 Integra wrote:What amazes me the most about all this is that nothing has changed since 2008. All the bullshit back then about the banks going bust for lending money to people that cannot pay back ( with the american banks being the biggest ones back then) is still happening TODAY. Regardless if they save the Greece banks or not the economy has already taken such a beating that the German banks already are signaling for more emergency aid as well. What is up with the banking system, why do we keep giving them money, it doesn't seem to do shit, why won't we just let the banks go bust like they did in Island and jail half of them instead Very little has actually changed in the financial world. Their lobbying power is formidable, and it definitely doesn't help that Europe's financial centre is in London. However, I doubt that there would be much public support for another bailout with tax payer funds. If there has been one upside to the financial crash and the subsequent euro crisis, it is that many people have become a lot less economics-illiterate. Hence the Greek bailout in 2010. Stay tuned for Italy! Who says Italy is gonna go bankrupt or gonna need a bailout? The same people who are pro austerity and showed to the entire world how to fuck up a country and a union? Those people are soooo trustworthy... "Economists" have been saying Italy is gonna go bankrupt for the past 60 years, but wait for it... it still hasn't happened yet. Keep waiting and keep repeating the same things, maybe one day you'll say "I WAS RIGHT ZOMG!". 130%+ debt to gdp ratio and the rise of Beppe Grillo and friends say it. I don't think any official has ever said it and I do hope it won't ever come close to happening. Debt doesn't mean much. Debt doesn't mean much... when you have control over liquidity, interest rates, inflation. It's not the case for Italy (and Greece, and every euro zone country except germany since they rule us basically). Don't misunderstand me, I love Italy and its economy is actually pretty good in some regard (it kept a strong industry, which most other OCDE were not able to - like the UK or France), but it's in a pretty deep hole due to the euro (like most southern country, France included).
So if Germany rules the EU, why were a lot of latest decisions of the ECB opposed by Germany?
In your world of wishful thinking Germany and the Euro are the only reasons for all the economic problems of Europe, if only it were so easy ...
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On June 29 2015 03:23 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 03:20 zlefin wrote:
silynx, Greece had more than enough time to plan referenda sooner; rather than this shallow attempt at politics they're doing by timing it now to stall. Ho my god they are stalling for a few days, it's a cheap tactic. What do they gain from stalling ?
They'd be getting the entire IMF worth of debt for this month paid? Because that's what "stalling until after the deadline" implies. You still have to make the payment before an agreement is made. So if Greece can't pay they'd get money from the bailout that isn't unlocked yet. Without agreeing to anything yet because they'd have to wait for the referendum.
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On June 29 2015 03:43 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2015 03:23 WhiteDog wrote:On June 29 2015 03:20 zlefin wrote:
silynx, Greece had more than enough time to plan referenda sooner; rather than this shallow attempt at politics they're doing by timing it now to stall. Ho my god they are stalling for a few days, it's a cheap tactic. What do they gain from stalling ? They'd be getting the entire IMF worth of debt for this month paid? Because that's what "stalling until after the deadline" implies. You still have to make the payment before an agreement is made. So if Greece can't pay they'd get money from the bailout that isn't unlocked yet without agreeing to anything yet because the they'd have to wait for the referendum.
And this month of IMF worth of debt is that huge compared to the other month they have to pay ?
It's nothing, they are in debt for (at least ?) the 20 years to come, a month is nothing.
In your world of wishful thinking Germany and the Euro are the only reasons for all the economic problems of Europe, if only it were so easy ...
All european countries have specific problems, nothing is perfect. But we commonly share the euro, which is a global drag on our economies (except for the mercantilist north).
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EPT
