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Malaysian airliner shot down over Eastern Ukraine - Page 50

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In order to maintain some kind of respectable thread quality and to show some respect for those who lost friends in this tragedy, we're forced to enact a hard line policy for this thread. Any posts holding an opinion on who is responsible or making an accusation that is not held by neutral media will be banned. Policy is in effect from page 27 onwards.

Specifically, citing a Ukrainian or Russian source for your claims is going to get you banned. Opinions/facts/accusations arising from neutral media sources (i.e. media whose country of origin is not Ukraine, Russia or one of its puppet states) will be permitted. This policy extends to all forms of media; if a youtube video or picture has not come through a neutral media source then don't post it or you'll be banned. If you wish to discuss this policy please use this website feedback thread.

Updated policy on aggressive posting and insults.
Hondelul
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
1999 Posts
July 20 2014 00:03 GMT
#981
On July 20 2014 08:51 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So does Merkel need the support of the Greens in order to stay in office?

Absolutely not, but what is the actual question? Because the support for her stance might differ largely for different subjects.
If it's still about nuclear power it's probably better to change the channels. Otherwise it's probably quite off topic if I answer.
mainerd
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States347 Posts
July 20 2014 00:11 GMT
#982
On July 20 2014 08:54 Hazzyboy wrote:
So it's okay to show debris on ground with bodies but plane shot down and falling from air is too graphical? That video won't change much because argument of who shot the missile will remain.

Not at all, I don't think anyone is holding back this video you'd like to see due to the graphic nature of it, I just don't think it exists, and if it did, the most likely people to have it are the ones who shot the missile. They would not release it because to do so would be admitting responsibility. Again I'd like to ask you what you think this video could reveal beyond what we already know; a passenger jet liner has been shot down with gruesome results.

As far as who shot the missile, the satellite images are reported as showing the missile was fired from inside rebel controlled territory which if true is quite damning (especially considering the circumstances of the conflict). I realize that some people will still argue about who shot the missile, even with this evidence, but that is mostly a function of the politics surrounding this situation. The best chance at gathering more evidence is at the crash site, which has presented difficulty to investigators due to restricted access.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/malaysia-airlines-flight-17-plane-crash-investigators-face-struggle-in-middle-of-war-zone/
"Let me tell you, in eSTRO we had some circle jerks, straight up. It wasn't pretty." -NonY
REDBLUEGREEN
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Germany1904 Posts
July 20 2014 00:13 GMT
#983
Hmm I mean it kind of makes sense to blame Russia for providing the rebels with the Buk system and training but I still have the feeling that the majority of the people with that sentiment are hypocritical as hell. Most of the people on this forum come from western countries and most of our governments export arms that claim thousands of lives every year. So should we blame our own politicians for those deaths too or is it somehow different because maybe the weapons we sell don't kill 300 civilians in a day with lots of media attention but maybe 3 civilians each day of the year...?
Hazzyboy
Profile Joined January 2012
Estonia555 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-20 00:34:30
July 20 2014 00:30 GMT
#984
@mainerd - very simple if they can use satellite to track down a missile launch and location of it and use it as evidence than EVERYONE should see the evidence not just hear it and believe. Controlled territory is a long stretch - in a civil war nothing is controlled.
I'm still skeptical about the missing MH-370 and now another jet from same company got shot down and no answers so far except for blame game. MH-370 was the biggest news in March now MH-17 is the biggest news of July but there is no difference in providing any legit video info. Sure they couldn't find MH-370 but who decided when to stop search and why? They showed all those satellite data of where plane supposed to be but it was useless data - nothing found. Same with MH-17 - how accurate are the coordinates?! Looks like for public those satellites can't tell where the plane was flying before it lost contact (MH-370).

As far as I remember at the beginning of the search they received coordinates from the radar but some time after it was announced radar was wrong and they got new coords from satellite at different locations - there was no way to find a plane without correct coordinates and everyone knew it but somehow when they keep changing them, they continued to search.
JinDesu
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3990 Posts
July 20 2014 00:39 GMT
#985
On July 20 2014 09:30 Hazzyboy wrote:
@mainerd - very simple if they can use satellite to track down a missile launch and location of it and use it as evidence than EVERYONE should see the evidence not just hear it and believe. Controlled territory is a long stretch - in a civil war nothing is controlled.
I'm still skeptical about the missing MH-370 and now another jet from same company got shot down and no answers so far except for blame game. MH-370 was the biggest news in March now MH-17 is the biggest news of July but there is no difference in providing any legit video info. Sure they couldn't find MH-370 but who decided when to stop search and why? They showed all those satellite data of where plane supposed to be but it was useless data - nothing found. Same with MH-17 - how accurate are the coordinates?! Looks like for public those satellites can't tell where the plane was flying before it lost contact (MH-370).

As far as I remember at the beginning of the search they received coordinates from the radar but some time after it was announced radar was wrong and they got new coords from satellite at different locations - there was no way to find a plane without correct coordinates and everyone knew it but somehow when they keep changing them, they continued to search.


MH-370 is a completely different issue. Satellites aren't omniscient and can only see so much, especially in the area where they thought the MH-370 disappeared. They were using the satellites after the fact.

For the rocket launch, it's in an area where there are a lotta eyes watching, and especially for large heat signatures from the ground like what a rocket launch would give off. Now as far as releasing that evidence, unfortunately the U.S. intelligence is a large and complicated structure that wants to avoid giving out its capabilities. The U.S. doesn't have a huge stake in this, so they may not want to reveal their whole hand to the world. They might share the info with their E.U. partners, but there is no way they'll show everything they got to the public when Russia is watching.
Yargh
docvoc
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States5491 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-20 00:42:28
July 20 2014 00:41 GMT
#986
EDIT: I got too angry at this post, I'm just going to delete it, it's not worth my time to be angry at a post.
User was warned for too many mimes.
mainerd
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States347 Posts
July 20 2014 00:43 GMT
#987
I would be surprised if the satellite imagery remained unreleased, I suspect they will release the images after completing and confirming analysis. It's only been two days since the incident, it is still very early in the investigative phase.
"Let me tell you, in eSTRO we had some circle jerks, straight up. It wasn't pretty." -NonY
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
July 20 2014 00:45 GMT
#988
If such imagery exists it's probably being shared among the intelligence services such as France, Ukraine, UK etc.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 20 2014 00:51 GMT
#989
On July 20 2014 09:30 Hazzyboy wrote:
@mainerd - very simple if they can use satellite to track down a missile launch and location of it and use it as evidence than EVERYONE should see the evidence not just hear it and believe. Controlled territory is a long stretch - in a civil war nothing is controlled.
I'm still skeptical about the missing MH-370 and now another jet from same company got shot down and no answers so far except for blame game. MH-370 was the biggest news in March now MH-17 is the biggest news of July but there is no difference in providing any legit video info. Sure they couldn't find MH-370 but who decided when to stop search and why? They showed all those satellite data of where plane supposed to be but it was useless data - nothing found. Same with MH-17 - how accurate are the coordinates?! Looks like for public those satellites can't tell where the plane was flying before it lost contact (MH-370).

As far as I remember at the beginning of the search they received coordinates from the radar but some time after it was announced radar was wrong and they got new coords from satellite at different locations - there was no way to find a plane without correct coordinates and everyone knew it but somehow when they keep changing them, they continued to search.
Its hard to get answers when separatists keep blocking investigators from the crash site.
Hazzyboy
Profile Joined January 2012
Estonia555 Posts
July 20 2014 01:06 GMT
#990
Exactly what makes me think there will be similar situation to MH-370 when people watched news for month and still nothing moved from day one.
Assault_1
Profile Joined April 2009
Canada1950 Posts
July 20 2014 01:26 GMT
#991
Is it possible we'll never know who fired it?
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-20 01:27:57
July 20 2014 01:26 GMT
#992
On July 20 2014 10:26 Assault_1 wrote:
Is it possible we'll never know who fired it?


We already know who fired it. The Rebels. The actual person who pulled the trigger, doubtful unless someone comes forward after being captured or something.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Hazzyboy
Profile Joined January 2012
Estonia555 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-20 01:42:30
July 20 2014 01:34 GMT
#993
What I can't understand if they are sure it's a BUK missile than how can they tell it if they have no access to a crash investigation? Basically after couple hours they claimed it's a BUK when they had provided no evidence. Both sides actually have different missiles from BUK that can reach airliner - possibly (during a war one or other side can claim equipment from one another). Remeber US soldiers claimed AK-47's in Iraq and used em? Good example is 2001 plane shot down by a non-BUK missile in Ukraine territory. Russia and Israel had top specialist in 2001 trying to figure out what missile used and they couldn't tell for sure. There are weapons of different kind to do it and yet without access to a crash site we got a report same day which weapon and who did it...
b_unnies
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
3579 Posts
July 20 2014 01:59 GMT
#994
How much pull does Netherlands have in EU?
3Form
Profile Joined December 2009
United Kingdom389 Posts
July 20 2014 02:01 GMT
#995
On July 20 2014 02:40 one-one-one wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:02 3Form wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:01 Dan HH wrote:
On July 20 2014 01:48 Derez wrote:
no ukrainian military planes fly at this altitude

Is there a source for this? 10km is not an unusual altitude for military planes. In fact, right after having a plane shot down at 6.5km Ukraine advised not flying below 10km in the area, so one would assume that they would heed their own warning and only fly above that treshold afterwards as well.


If you know the enemy has SAMs in the area then you fly low to try and keep off radar. If you fly high then you get shot out of the sky...


Yeah. This is pretty accurate.

An efficient and very low-tech way to force airplanes to higher altitudes where they can be hit by these weapons is by simply having AAA weapons on the ground. Small caliber machine guns will do just fine, the key is having a group of gunners here and there over a big area to pose a large enough threat. The separatist forces should have been able to acquire a large number of 0.308 and 0.50 caliber machine guns, the latter kind is more than capable of shooting down low flying planes and helicopters, especially if explosive and incendiary ammunition is used.

I want to point out that there are different tiers of surface-to-air weapons. The weapon used to down the AN-26 last week was probably a smaller hand held SAM which can not be used to shoot down airplanes at 30k+ feet.
A plausible chain of events is that the Ukranian military planes have been flying on higher altitudes, out of reach of hand operated SAMs, ever since their AN-26 was shot down. To counter this, rebels have gotten access to advanced "BUK" weapons with substantially better capabilities, with our without Russian aid ( I believe that they were assisted by Russians, but of course I don't have any hard evidence).


Sorry for the late reply but I also struggle to understand why the Ukrainian military would be flying transport planes over the area. The crash site is so close to the Russian border, many miles past Luhansk.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
July 20 2014 02:20 GMT
#996
On July 20 2014 10:59 b_unnies wrote:
How much pull does Netherlands have in EU?


Relative to their size, a lot. However, there were 10 British casualties and the UK is very anti-Russia and has a lot of influence. I think the pressure is too much to ignore and at any rate it is in the interest of the EU to have a strong united Ukraine which they can absorb.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-20 02:31:40
July 20 2014 02:29 GMT
#997
On July 20 2014 10:34 Hazzyboy wrote:
What I can't understand if they are sure it's a BUK missile than how can they tell it if they have no access to a crash investigation? Basically after couple hours they claimed it's a BUK when they had provided no evidence. Both sides actually have different missiles from BUK that can reach airliner - possibly (during a war one or other side can claim equipment from one another). Remeber US soldiers claimed AK-47's in Iraq and used em? Good example is 2001 plane shot down by a non-BUK missile in Ukraine territory. Russia and Israel had top specialist in 2001 trying to figure out what missile used and they couldn't tell for sure. There are weapons of different kind to do it and yet without access to a crash site we got a report same day which weapon and who did it...

the range at which the plane was hit limits the missiles that could have done this to BUK or the S-300, the rebels advertised their BUK recently and then deleted the information, an AP photographer took pictures of their BUK in the general area of the crash, the infrared signature emanating from the BUK picked up by the American satellites, the fact that rebels are the only ones using anti-aircraft weaponry in this conflict, the fact that the Ukrainian SAMs are deployed further West since they are more concerned about Russian intervention than any kind of rebel air threat, and the fact that the Russian media has now spun 5 different versions of what happened without blinking in one day. But you are right, if the rebels had stopped interfering with actual experts arrival on the crash sites then we would know even more. Unfortunately they have already looted the black boxes and disturbed the site. But that could be just general callous incompetence and not willful destruction of evidence.
Nick_54
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States2230 Posts
July 20 2014 03:11 GMT
#998
On July 20 2014 09:45 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
If such imagery exists it's probably being shared among the intelligence services such as France, Ukraine, UK etc.


Source? I figured a mod would read the top of the thread.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
July 20 2014 03:42 GMT
#999
On July 20 2014 10:26 Assault_1 wrote:
Is it possible we'll never know who fired it?


We already know, almost for certain, who fired it. The intercepted phone call recordings are all you need as proof. There is of course a chance that these were fabricated by the Ukrainian government, but that would be so incredibly risky that it is more or less unthinkable. If they were discovered to be fakes, it would be clear the Ukraine had something to hide and would very seriously undermine their position in this conflict. They would also have had to fake these phone calls within hours of the event. It's incredibly unlikely.

This is not a mystery. Do not compare it to the other MA incident.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 20 2014 03:53 GMT
#1000
On July 20 2014 10:34 Hazzyboy wrote:
What I can't understand if they are sure it's a BUK missile than how can they tell it if they have no access to a crash investigation? Basically after couple hours they claimed it's a BUK when they had provided no evidence. Both sides actually have different missiles from BUK that can reach airliner - possibly (during a war one or other side can claim equipment from one another). Remeber US soldiers claimed AK-47's in Iraq and used em? Good example is 2001 plane shot down by a non-BUK missile in Ukraine territory. Russia and Israel had top specialist in 2001 trying to figure out what missile used and they couldn't tell for sure. There are weapons of different kind to do it and yet without access to a crash site we got a report same day which weapon and who did it...


It was shot down by a BUK missile fired by the separatists. That should be be up for debate at this point, unless new evidence comes to light. What is not known is how the separatists got the BUK system and knew how to use it.

Even without knowing where the missile was fired from, common sense was enough to know that Ukraine did not fie it. Who would they be firing at? The separatists have no aircraft and if they did they would of bragged about it by now. Ukraine would certainly not fire at what they thought was a Russian aircraft because Russia would retaliate with a lot of force. The Russian military is highly unlikely to of fired the missile because they would have the ability to determine that it was a civilian plane, and if the Russians had actually done it (by accident) then they would of had the separatists take the blame. Just go through it logically and the Separatists are the only party to have both means and motive. Unfortunately, they are preventing anyoen from gathering more evidence at the moment.
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