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Malaysian airliner shot down over Eastern Ukraine - Page 47

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In order to maintain some kind of respectable thread quality and to show some respect for those who lost friends in this tragedy, we're forced to enact a hard line policy for this thread. Any posts holding an opinion on who is responsible or making an accusation that is not held by neutral media will be banned. Policy is in effect from page 27 onwards.

Specifically, citing a Ukrainian or Russian source for your claims is going to get you banned. Opinions/facts/accusations arising from neutral media sources (i.e. media whose country of origin is not Ukraine, Russia or one of its puppet states) will be permitted. This policy extends to all forms of media; if a youtube video or picture has not come through a neutral media source then don't post it or you'll be banned. If you wish to discuss this policy please use this website feedback thread.

Updated policy on aggressive posting and insults.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
July 19 2014 17:46 GMT
#921
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:12 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.

Is this going to be like zeo 'solving' the sniper cases in Maidain as being the fault of the protesters through his vast CSI experience and photo evidence? You should at least make up your mind, are the videos with fake voices or are they referring to another plane that no one has bothered to show videos off -- because right now you sound like a separatist "well it was shot down by ukrainian jets AND it was a conspiracy to make us look bad AND there are dead bodies"

I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
July 19 2014 17:52 GMT
#922
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:12 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.

Is this going to be like zeo 'solving' the sniper cases in Maidain as being the fault of the protesters through his vast CSI experience and photo evidence? You should at least make up your mind, are the videos with fake voices or are they referring to another plane that no one has bothered to show videos off -- because right now you sound like a separatist "well it was shot down by ukrainian jets AND it was a conspiracy to make us look bad AND there are dead bodies"

I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Grettin
Profile Joined April 2010
42411 Posts
July 19 2014 17:55 GMT
#923
Not sure if this has been here already. Vice's video regarding this.

"If I had force-fields in Brood War, I'd never lose." -Bisu
Jormundr
Profile Joined July 2011
United States1678 Posts
July 19 2014 17:58 GMT
#924
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:12 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.

Is this going to be like zeo 'solving' the sniper cases in Maidain as being the fault of the protesters through his vast CSI experience and photo evidence? You should at least make up your mind, are the videos with fake voices or are they referring to another plane that no one has bothered to show videos off -- because right now you sound like a separatist "well it was shot down by ukrainian jets AND it was a conspiracy to make us look bad AND there are dead bodies"

I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.
Capitalism is beneficial for people who work harder than other people. Under capitalism the only way to make more money is to work harder then your competitors whether they be other companies or workers. ~ Vegetarian
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
July 19 2014 18:02 GMT
#925
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:12 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.

Is this going to be like zeo 'solving' the sniper cases in Maidain as being the fault of the protesters through his vast CSI experience and photo evidence? You should at least make up your mind, are the videos with fake voices or are they referring to another plane that no one has bothered to show videos off -- because right now you sound like a separatist "well it was shot down by ukrainian jets AND it was a conspiracy to make us look bad AND there are dead bodies"

I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
July 19 2014 18:05 GMT
#926
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:12 Sub40APM wrote:
[quote]
Is this going to be like zeo 'solving' the sniper cases in Maidain as being the fault of the protesters through his vast CSI experience and photo evidence? You should at least make up your mind, are the videos with fake voices or are they referring to another plane that no one has bothered to show videos off -- because right now you sound like a separatist "well it was shot down by ukrainian jets AND it was a conspiracy to make us look bad AND there are dead bodies"

I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.
Jormundr
Profile Joined July 2011
United States1678 Posts
July 19 2014 18:06 GMT
#927
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:12 Sub40APM wrote:
[quote]
Is this going to be like zeo 'solving' the sniper cases in Maidain as being the fault of the protesters through his vast CSI experience and photo evidence? You should at least make up your mind, are the videos with fake voices or are they referring to another plane that no one has bothered to show videos off -- because right now you sound like a separatist "well it was shot down by ukrainian jets AND it was a conspiracy to make us look bad AND there are dead bodies"

I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

According to them they never reported it, so I don't really know what exercise you want to engage in.
Capitalism is beneficial for people who work harder than other people. Under capitalism the only way to make more money is to work harder then your competitors whether they be other companies or workers. ~ Vegetarian
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-19 18:12:00
July 19 2014 18:10 GMT
#928
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
[quote]
I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

On July 20 2014 03:06 Jormundr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:18 LegalLord wrote:
[quote]
I'm just going to say that I simply don't know the answer to that one. Conversation 1 is referring to a different plane according to Bezler himself. Conversation 5 is obviously referring to the Boeing but probably happened a while later. The other three, I simply don't know and I'd rather not jump to conclusions.

You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

According to them they never reported it, so I don't really know what exercise you want to engage in.

Dunno what sources you're using. I've seen at least a couple off-hand mentions of a Su. Timing-wise, it's a bad time to make a big deal out of that.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 19 2014 18:12 GMT
#929
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
[quote]
You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

so far only you either trying to equate the SBU to liars, in your original 'geo-spatial analysis' post, or to incompetence, in your 'the phone call is inconclusive', whereas the BBC, the NYT, the Atlantic, and other such respectable if susceptible to being wrong papers of record of the West all seem to at least give the SBU the benefit of the doubt.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 19 2014 18:13 GMT
#930
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.


If you're going to try to discredit people, have the courtesy to get your facts straight. The first conversation doesn't say it fell 'near Yenakijeve,' but `beyond Yenekijeve'. You know what's the next town directly south-east (direction of flight) of Yenekijeve? You guessed it, Torez.

Regarding the AN-26, there's no report that an AN-26 has been downed, no wreck has been found. Don't reference Lifenews, they're full of BS.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
July 19 2014 18:14 GMT
#931
On July 20 2014 03:12 Sub40APM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
[quote]
One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

so far only you either trying to equate the SBU to liars, in your original 'geo-spatial analysis' post, or to incompetence, in your 'the phone call is inconclusive', whereas the BBC, the NYT, the Atlantic, and other such respectable if susceptible to being wrong papers of record of the West all seem to at least give the SBU the benefit of the doubt.

Are you saying that because a video circulated, that instantly gives it more credibility?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
July 19 2014 18:16 GMT
#932
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
[quote]
You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:06 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
[quote]
You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

According to them they never reported it, so I don't really know what exercise you want to engage in.

Dunno what sources you're using. I've seen at least a couple off-hand mentions of a Su. Timing-wise, it's a bad time to make a big deal out of that.


How about the FM of Sweden, currently one of the most respected voices in the business?

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Evilmystic
Profile Joined September 2010
Russian Federation266 Posts
July 19 2014 18:19 GMT
#933
On July 20 2014 02:40 one-one-one wrote:
I want to point out that there are different tiers of surface-to-air weapons. The weapon used to down the AN-26 last week was probably a smaller hand held SAM which can not be used to shoot down airplanes at 30k+ feet.
A plausible chain of events is that the Ukranian military planes have been flying on higher altitudes, out of reach of hand operated SAMs, ever since their AN-26 was shot down. To counter this, rebels have gotten access to advanced "BUK" weapons with substantially better capabilities, with our without Russian aid ( I believe that they were assisted by Russians, but of course I don't have any hard evidence).


AN-26 was shot down on altitude of around 6500 meters, well out of range of any shoulder-launched SAM. That led to Ukraine's accusations of russian military involvement in taking this plane down, as well as closing of airspace below 10000 m.
hummingbird23
Profile Joined September 2011
Norway359 Posts
July 19 2014 18:20 GMT
#934
On July 20 2014 01:02 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
The crash site of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which went down yesterday afternoon after being shot with a missile, is now being looted. This is not only causing issues for the investigation, but also for the families of the victims on board, who will now not be able to recover the lost property of the 298 dead passengers and crew.

After the crash, investigators were unable to get to the site quickly and rope it off to preserve evidence. This allowed armed separatists and locals to essentially raid the scene. Suitcases were removed from the wreckage and pillaged. The coldhearted looters stole a variety of personal possessions, but left behind some apparent undesirables: a Minnie Mouse lunchbox, a Winnie the Pooh stuffed animal, family photographs, and intact passports.

As for what they took, wallets and credit cards were a favorite. A photojournalist at the scene said, "There isn't a single cellphone, wallet with money or camera to be found in any handbag or on the bodies. It's like they all mysteriously disappeared overnight."


Source


Force should be responded in kind. At this point, I see no reason why a request shouldn't be made to Ukraine to allow an international armed force to secure the area of the crash site. And deliver a warning to rebels that messing with the investigation further WILL bring overwhelming military force down on them like a ton of bricks. Right now, the rebels have every incentive to compromise the investigation.
Jormundr
Profile Joined July 2011
United States1678 Posts
July 19 2014 18:26 GMT
#935
On July 20 2014 03:14 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:12 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
[quote]
Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

so far only you either trying to equate the SBU to liars, in your original 'geo-spatial analysis' post, or to incompetence, in your 'the phone call is inconclusive', whereas the BBC, the NYT, the Atlantic, and other such respectable if susceptible to being wrong papers of record of the West all seem to at least give the SBU the benefit of the doubt.

Are you saying that because a video circulated, that instantly gives it more credibility?

Yes, that instantly gives it more credibility than your baseless speculation. You are the only one arguing that there is a second plane. You are the only one making rough estimates of where these speakers are (and then treating them as precise locations). You are the only one making pseudo scientific arguments about the plane's location in the air by assuming that the plane was in the exact location as the people reporting on it.
Capitalism is beneficial for people who work harder than other people. Under capitalism the only way to make more money is to work harder then your competitors whether they be other companies or workers. ~ Vegetarian
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
July 19 2014 18:27 GMT
#936
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:20 Sub40APM wrote:
[quote]
You already jumped to conclusions, you are trusting Bezler and calling the entire tape exchanged as 'Typical SBU lies', surely you can see how both of those are qualitative judgments.

One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

You keep saying that, and I can only keep telling you that this is complete bullshit. A plane going down in a war will be reported. Not on the headlines, sure, but it will be reported and you will be able to find sources about it. "No one cares" has to be just laughable, given the situation.

Also, please respond to Ghanburighan's comment above, who points out a seemingly crucial mistake in your initial analysis.
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
July 19 2014 18:28 GMT
#937
On July 20 2014 03:14 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:12 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
[quote]
Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

so far only you either trying to equate the SBU to liars, in your original 'geo-spatial analysis' post, or to incompetence, in your 'the phone call is inconclusive', whereas the BBC, the NYT, the Atlantic, and other such respectable if susceptible to being wrong papers of record of the West all seem to at least give the SBU the benefit of the doubt.

Are you saying that because a video circulated, that instantly gives it more credibility?

Lets see, first we have the terrorist celebrating and then hiding the fact that they shot down the plane -- including Russia news broadcast. Then we have the SBU releasing intercepts of known figures, describing the events as they happened, first a celebration of shooting down a plane, then the callous response that 'civilians shoulnt be flying here!' or "they arent civilians, they are spies!" so yes, in the totality of the circumstances it seems like the tapes are authentic.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-19 18:37:13
July 19 2014 18:34 GMT
#938
On July 20 2014 03:27 Conti wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
[quote]
One of the two narratives is consistent with everything that can be confirmed, the other is not.
In perfect weather, you can see smoke from a large fire from 30km away. Yenakievo and Grabovo are 35km apart. Safe to say that it's not the same plane.

Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

You keep saying that, and I can only keep telling you that this is complete bullshit. A plane going down in a war will be reported. Not on the headlines, sure, but it will be reported and you will be able to find sources about it. "No one cares" has to be just laughable, given the situation.

Also, please respond to Ghanburighan's comment above, who points out a seemingly crucial mistake in your initial analysis.

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-russia-plane-sanctions-20140717-story.html
The wreckage of a Ukrainian AN-26 military transport plane after it was shot down July 14 by a missile in the Luhansk region. Ukraine has accused Russia of this earlier incident and the downing July 16 of a Ukrainian Su-24 jet. (Dominique Faget / Agence France-Presse/Getty Images)

Not much of a story but there's something related. Given that we don't have any reliable timestamps, very well could be that incident.


On July 20 2014 03:13 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.


If you're going to try to discredit people, have the courtesy to get your facts straight. The first conversation doesn't say it fell 'near Yenakijeve,' but `beyond Yenekijeve'. You know what's the next town directly south-east (direction of flight) of Yenekijeve? You guessed it, Torez.

Distance-wise, that's a stretch.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Jormundr
Profile Joined July 2011
United States1678 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-19 18:45:41
July 19 2014 18:42 GMT
#939
On July 20 2014 03:34 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:27 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:10 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:05 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:58 Jormundr wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:52 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:46 Conti wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:39 LegalLord wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:35 Jormundr wrote:
[quote]
Incorrect, you are making two assumptions with no evidence:
1. That the people watching the plane fall were accurate about where it fell to within a few km
2. That there were multiple planes

There is not evidence to support either of these.

1. Accurate to within a city. That, I can assume because that is a rough estimate.
2. Why would a Su make headlines? It's really not that important when a military plane gets shot down in a military operation. I didn't even see any mention of the Lugansk offensive that happened during this MH17 incident.

Of course it's not going to make headlines, but there will be news if a plane is shot down, and it should be absolutely possible to find out more details about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
They are shot down all the time. One was shot down on July 16, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if no one really cared.

The very fact that you know this (despite not having recently shot down an SU) is evidence that you are wrong. Downed airplanes and the number of crew killed have consistently been reported during the entire conflict. It's been two days and there's no second aircraft. You can bet your ass that if there was, separatist media would have been all over it.

They did report it, for what that's worth. But I'll leave it as a mental exercise to figure out why they're not making a big deal out of it right now.

So why on earth wouldn't the rebels and Russia point this out if they had even the tiniest bit of evidence for this? Your argument just doesn't make any sense.

Because no one really takes that SBU video seriously, other than news outlets that are trying to stir up controversy. Outside of that video, a Su being shot down somewhere in Donetsk Oblast is not really that important.

You keep saying that, and I can only keep telling you that this is complete bullshit. A plane going down in a war will be reported. Not on the headlines, sure, but it will be reported and you will be able to find sources about it. "No one cares" has to be just laughable, given the situation.

Also, please respond to Ghanburighan's comment above, who points out a seemingly crucial mistake in your initial analysis.

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-russia-plane-sanctions-20140717-story.html
Show nested quote +
The wreckage of a Ukrainian AN-26 military transport plane after it was shot down July 14 by a missile in the Luhansk region. Ukraine has accused Russia of this earlier incident and the downing July 16 of a Ukrainian Su-24 jet. (Dominique Faget / Agence France-Presse/Getty Images)

Not much of a story but there's something related. Given that we don't have any reliable timestamps, very well could be that incident.


Show nested quote +
On July 20 2014 03:13 Ghanburighan wrote:
On July 20 2014 02:07 LegalLord wrote:
So I still haven't seen anyone repost the response to that SBU video from the actual response of those involved, I'll use the video itself to say what they were trying to say. The video has been reposted 20 times over in this thread - feel free to look through to find it. Also, the only thing that differentiates this video from the usual BS the SBU throws out is the amount of attention this one gained.

So, start by watching the video, but ignore the "context" provided by the SBU - that is, ignore anything but the actual translation of what the people involved are actually saying. Ignore what times they are said to be at, context as to what they mean, etc.

Five conversations total:
Conversation 1: Igor Bezler reporting that a plane was shot down by "Miner's Group" that fell near Yenakievo, and he can see the smoke.
Conversation 2: "Major" reporting a plane shot down at a Chernukhino checkpoint by Cossacks.
Conversation 3: "Major" reporting that a plane broke up in air near Petropavlovsk mine (no idea where this is).
Conversation 4: "Major" reporting that a plane was a civilian plane.
Conversation 5: Report of Boeing shot down, outrage similar to the "wtf was that plane doing in a war zone" posts here. TV reports already talking about the downing of the plane.

Distances between cities mentioned:
[image loading]
(give or take 5 km in either direction for where they actually were)

So Enakievo and Torez, the actual crash site, are pretty far apart (Grabovo, the village where it fell, is right next to Torez). Conversation 1 says it fell in Enakievo, so these two conversations are referring to different planes. I believe the plane in question was a Su.

Conversation 2, 3, and 4 are the ones that relate most closely to the actual incident. Conversation 2: a plane shot down from a Chernukhino checkpoint. Conversation 3: Plane broke apart in the air near Petropavlovsk mine. I don't know where that mine would be, so I can't say whether or not it's the same plane. Conversation 4 almost certainly refers to the actual plane, but mentions no locations and never says that they shot down the plane. Also, these videos are about the quality you'd expect to be able to fake a voice. I suspect that either these recordings are fake or taken out of context in US politics style obfuscation.

One other note on this one: The alleged Buk was said to be photographed in Torez.The Chernukhino checkpoint is probably further away from Torez than city limits as it would be closer to military-controlled territory. No mention of heavy weaponry at the checkpoint, and the way they described it it sounds like guerillas. Inconsistent at the very least.

Conversation 5 probably happened after that LifeNews report of an AN-26 crash, given that there were TV reports. Sounds like a mistaken report, and genuine outrage at an upcoming shitstorm that dead civilians will be.

In short: standard SBU lies.


If you're going to try to discredit people, have the courtesy to get your facts straight. The first conversation doesn't say it fell 'near Yenakijeve,' but `beyond Yenekijeve'. You know what's the next town directly south-east (direction of flight) of Yenekijeve? You guessed it, Torez.

Distance-wise, that's a stretch.

So now you're saying that the an-26 the separatists said they had "just downed" near the city of Torez (a post that they made around the same time as the downing of the MA flight) is the one that they had downed 3 days earlier 100 km away? You are making claims that contradict your notions of precision in your earlier post attempting to refute the SBU's intercepted phone calls.
source
Capitalism is beneficial for people who work harder than other people. Under capitalism the only way to make more money is to work harder then your competitors whether they be other companies or workers. ~ Vegetarian
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22213 Posts
July 19 2014 18:57 GMT
#940
I'm getting so frustrated reading about this story, I think that's me done
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
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