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United States43538 Posts
On June 10 2017 00:27 Pandemona wrote:
Technically don't need Labour votes though right as with the DUP if they back there proposals it will be 327 votes and a majority? Or do you need more than just a majority vote to pass it through ? (plus if Sinn Finn don't take there seats you only need 320 majority to pass something?)
Some Tories will break the whip. They don't have a leader that could compel them not to. I misspoke when I suggested it would hold completely but I'd not expect them to lose more than a couple.
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People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well.
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On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well.
Nice joke
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Canada13392 Posts
On June 10 2017 00:18 KwarK wrote:
Regarding the Brexit negotiations, they'll have to keep Labour in the loop now because they will need Labour votes. But I just don't foresee the Labour party whip demanding Labour vote against it as a bloc. It's important to rememeber that traditionally it was the neoliberal Conservatives who were pushing the EU while the trade unionist Labour party were vehemently opposed to it. Those blocs still exist but the neoliberal wing of the Conservatives has for the past two decades been silenced by the One Nation Conservatives while the trade unionist Labourites were silenced by Blairites and Brownites.
What it comes down to is that Brexit has crossparty appeal, and appeal particularly to Labour members like Corbyn who is at odds with a lot of his party on the issue. When the time comes the Labour whip is unlikely to demand a full and unified vote against Brexit, the internal political capital of such a whip would be colossal and I just don't think Corbyn has it. Even if he did, the loss with the voters would be worse, Labour would be portrayed as trampling the will of the people, denying the Brexit that the people voted for with zero possibility of introducing their own alternative.
It's not wrong to say that the Conservatives will need some Labour votes when the time comes. However it is wrong to say that they can't expect some. Cameron was far more vocal in his remain campaigning that Corbyn ever was, the Conservative whip will largely hold because they're in power and the Labour whip will be spared. They'll negotiate something that the anti-EU Labour MPs can stomach and on a take it or leave it vote it'll pass.
If Corbyn's position is safe, and the loss of Con Majority is seen as a win for him, if hes smart, he will whip the vote for brexit. Which way depends on how he gauges the public perception of the move as it comes closer.
But if he allows a free vote, he's a dead leader. It won't give him any more votes in the next legislature. When it comes to large important votes, a party needs to vote as a block if they want to create a narrative going into their next election campaign.
On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well.
I still don't get the oddity that is UK politics. In Canada majorities have dropped to minorities and back to majorities with the same leader before.
Labour did well but they didn't win. They remain the opposition. What they really need to do is absorb the SNP and provide Scotland with more independence. The UK could learn a lot from Canada and how we handle Quebec in our confederation. Quebec is so different from the other provinces, its ridiculous and they have a lot of independence, and more autonomy than anyone else.
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On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke
Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo.
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United States43538 Posts
I'm a Tory, for what it's worth, although I voted Lib Dem this time around because my seat is an absurdly safe Tory seat and I wanted to register some kind of opposition to May. The US Politics Megathread gets more attention because America and Trump and that presents everyone to the left of Trump as being on the left. But I identify as centre right, I just don't identify as an insane person which puts me to the left of Trump.
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On June 10 2017 00:42 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo.
No not at all, but you must be able to see it is left bent, there used to be a fair amount of right wing posters, but they are few and far between now imo. Corbyn is a radical, even the center left in his own party dislike him.
I used to vote labour before the likes of Corbyn and Abbot took over.
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Canada13392 Posts
On June 10 2017 00:43 KwarK wrote:
I'm a Tory, for what it's worth, although I voted Lib Dem this time around because my seat is an absurdly safe Tory seat and I wanted to register some kind of opposition to May. The US Politics Megathread gets more attention because America and Trump and that presents everyone to the left of Trump as being on the left. But I identify as centre right, I just don't identify as an insane person which puts me to the left of Trump.
It doesnt matter how Right wing you are outside of america, in america, you're still left of centre.
They have ZERO understanding of what a fiscal but progressive conservative is. Fiscal but progressive is hard blue Democrat in that country.
And I would argue bernie was not even THAT left tbh compared to say Canada's left wing NDP
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On June 10 2017 00:44 Reaps wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:42 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo. No not at all, but you must be able to see it is left bent, there used to be a fair amount of right wing posters, but they are few and far between now imo.
Well there certainly are lots in the center who bend left sometimes, but on the whole, and speaking in a western world context, most people here are in the centerish, and many ideas from the right are quite popular here.
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United States43538 Posts
On June 10 2017 00:40 ZeromuS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:18 KwarK wrote:
Regarding the Brexit negotiations, they'll have to keep Labour in the loop now because they will need Labour votes. But I just don't foresee the Labour party whip demanding Labour vote against it as a bloc. It's important to rememeber that traditionally it was the neoliberal Conservatives who were pushing the EU while the trade unionist Labour party were vehemently opposed to it. Those blocs still exist but the neoliberal wing of the Conservatives has for the past two decades been silenced by the One Nation Conservatives while the trade unionist Labourites were silenced by Blairites and Brownites.
What it comes down to is that Brexit has crossparty appeal, and appeal particularly to Labour members like Corbyn who is at odds with a lot of his party on the issue. When the time comes the Labour whip is unlikely to demand a full and unified vote against Brexit, the internal political capital of such a whip would be colossal and I just don't think Corbyn has it. Even if he did, the loss with the voters would be worse, Labour would be portrayed as trampling the will of the people, denying the Brexit that the people voted for with zero possibility of introducing their own alternative.
It's not wrong to say that the Conservatives will need some Labour votes when the time comes. However it is wrong to say that they can't expect some. Cameron was far more vocal in his remain campaigning that Corbyn ever was, the Conservative whip will largely hold because they're in power and the Labour whip will be spared. They'll negotiate something that the anti-EU Labour MPs can stomach and on a take it or leave it vote it'll pass. If Corbyn's position is safe, and the loss of Con Majority is seen as a win for him, if hes smart, he will whip the vote for brexit. Which way depends on how he gauges the public perception of the move as it comes closer. But if he allows a free vote, he's a dead leader. It won't give him any more votes in the next legislature. When it comes to large important votes, a party needs to vote as a block if they want to create a narrative going into their next election campaign.
How familiar with EU politics within British politics are you? It's been an ongoing argument for forty years now and whips have been tried plenty of times before. Labour doesn't even know if it's a remain or a leave party, New Labour was remain, Old Labour was leave. Political leaders don't win with the EU. Thatcher was stabbed in the back while negotiating in Europe. Maastricht killed Major's government. UKIP leeched a significant amount of Labour's working class support. The referendum got Cameron.
You don't win with Europe. Nobody ever has. The idea that Corbyn will demand a party whip on the Brexit bill just doesn't seem realistic to me, presumably you're saying he would require his party vote against such a bill rather than in support of the government. Is there any reason you'd think Corbyn desires to scuttle the exit to the EU? The Blair/Brownite wing of his party does, but Corbyn?
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On June 10 2017 00:49 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:44 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:42 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo. No not at all, but you must be able to see it is left bent, there used to be a fair amount of right wing posters, but they are few and far between now imo. Well there certainly are lots in the center who bend left sometimes, but on the whole, and speaking in a western world context, most people here are in the centerish, and many ideas from the right are quite popular here.
Yea, its hard to say because the political spectrum is just so different between the US and Europe.
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On June 10 2017 00:42 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo.
Probably just intelligent enough to know policies like free university tuition are not economically viable.
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United States43538 Posts
Also shit like the fox hunting ban in the manifesto? That was just taking a victory lap before the race was over. I don't especially care about the foxes either way beyond a general distaste of people killing animals for pleasure but it's a perfect storm of irrelevance and unpopularity in a neat little package. The fox hunting vote was already won by the Brexit stance, if it wasn't secure anyway.
I certainly won't be sad to see the back of May.
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On June 10 2017 00:52 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:42 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo. Probably just intelligent enough to know policies like free university tuition are not economically viable.
That is actually not true. Education and health care (if one exclude people who are too old to be in the workforce) are the two things that give the biggest return in a nation's economy, long-term.
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I would say left and right aren't as useful labels when describing British politics as it may be in USA, especially in recent years. Sure UK has a FPTP system, but it is not as divisive as the electoral division, nor is politics anywhere as partisan. MP's do defy the party stance on occasion and MP's working together is the norm. Sure Labour can be described as Left party, but during the Labour years, it was seen as a Right party, and portrayed as the same as the Conservatives, and ended up losing left leaning Scottish votes to SNP. With Jeremy Corbyn, it has swung more towards the left. The Conservatives in the meanwhile, with David Cameron and more recently with Teresa May has swung more Left with more appeal to the working class. In any case the main debating points were the EU and Brexit, and the NHS. Staying in the EU sounds like a right agenda, but the Conservatives support leaving the EU. Both parties claim to support the NHS, a left agenda.
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Canada13392 Posts
On June 10 2017 00:49 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:40 ZeromuS wrote:On June 10 2017 00:18 KwarK wrote:
Regarding the Brexit negotiations, they'll have to keep Labour in the loop now because they will need Labour votes. But I just don't foresee the Labour party whip demanding Labour vote against it as a bloc. It's important to rememeber that traditionally it was the neoliberal Conservatives who were pushing the EU while the trade unionist Labour party were vehemently opposed to it. Those blocs still exist but the neoliberal wing of the Conservatives has for the past two decades been silenced by the One Nation Conservatives while the trade unionist Labourites were silenced by Blairites and Brownites.
What it comes down to is that Brexit has crossparty appeal, and appeal particularly to Labour members like Corbyn who is at odds with a lot of his party on the issue. When the time comes the Labour whip is unlikely to demand a full and unified vote against Brexit, the internal political capital of such a whip would be colossal and I just don't think Corbyn has it. Even if he did, the loss with the voters would be worse, Labour would be portrayed as trampling the will of the people, denying the Brexit that the people voted for with zero possibility of introducing their own alternative.
It's not wrong to say that the Conservatives will need some Labour votes when the time comes. However it is wrong to say that they can't expect some. Cameron was far more vocal in his remain campaigning that Corbyn ever was, the Conservative whip will largely hold because they're in power and the Labour whip will be spared. They'll negotiate something that the anti-EU Labour MPs can stomach and on a take it or leave it vote it'll pass. If Corbyn's position is safe, and the loss of Con Majority is seen as a win for him, if hes smart, he will whip the vote for brexit. Which way depends on how he gauges the public perception of the move as it comes closer. But if he allows a free vote, he's a dead leader. It won't give him any more votes in the next legislature. When it comes to large important votes, a party needs to vote as a block if they want to create a narrative going into their next election campaign. How familiar with EU politics within British politics are you? It's been an ongoing argument for forty years now and whips have been tried plenty of times before. Labour doesn't even know if it's a remain or a leave party, New Labour was remain, Old Labour was leave. Political leaders don't win with the EU. Thatcher was stabbed in the back while negotiating in Europe. Maastricht killed Major's government. UKIP leeched a significant amount of Labour's working class support. The referendum got Cameron. You don't win with Europe. Nobody ever has. The idea that Corbyn will demand a party whip on the Brexit bill just doesn't seem realistic to me, presumably you're saying he would require his party vote against such a bill rather than in support of the government. Is there any reason you'd think Corbyn desires to scuttle the exit to the EU? The Blair/Brownite wing of his party does, but Corbyn?
I don't know what his bent is. All I am saying is that politically, it is actually really beneficial to whip votes on major policy decisions as a leader. It creates an image of strong unity and consistency in leadership. If a part seems like its split to the public, it doesn't do as well in elections.
The real issue is whether Corbyn has the political capital to pull off a whip. I don't know what way he would send it, and the messaging is key. Especially with a minority government to which they are opposition.
If they support brexit, but see the negotiations and terms as unfavourable or poor, they could before brexit vote occurs to ratify the full terms, vote no confidence and then propose they could do better.
They could support brexit and let it happen and then claim that they all voted for brexit because its what the people wanted, then vote no confidence and trigger a new election alongside others saying they don't want the cons to lead them into a post brexit world.
They could, if public opinion turns against brexit entirely, whip an anti brexit vote against the terms entirely.
There are a lot of ways to do it. But in the end, voting as a block shows strength in leadership and only further cements them as a stable and better party than the cons under May next time around. It makes campaigning against her much much easier. And if someone replaces her, and the cons have an open vote on the issue, the whip makes labour again, seem stronger.
I'm not advocating one position over another. I'm simply saying whipping votes on major policy decisions is politically beneficial to the party and its leader. If corbyn has the political capital to pull it off, he also forces dissidents into backbencher positions, or they can choose to run independent and lose out on the financial support of the party in the next election. Which in a parliament, is a death sentence to almost any politician's public life.
Now does he control enough of his party to even take that stance without being ousted outright? Thats the question.
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On June 10 2017 00:55 Neneu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:52 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On June 10 2017 00:42 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 Reaps wrote:On June 10 2017 00:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
People think TL leans way left because of the younger demo, but TL is actually pretty center-right (my guess is income/family wealth skew higher here). Surprised to find out people aren't more excited about Labor doing well. Nice joke Are you implying TL is really far left? Because the way they have approached folks like Corbyn or Sanders doesn't indicate they are imo. Probably just intelligent enough to know policies like free university tuition are not economically viable. That is actually not true. Education and health care (if one exclude people who are too old to be in the workforce) are the two things that give the biggest return in a nation's economy, long-term.
Maybe if you allowed it only for a select few courses that were of economic benefit to the country.Engineering, medicine, sciences.Get a heap of kids studying what they're interested in cos it's free and you've got a total mess.Taxpayers paying for kids to study art, history, law, philosophy is a total misuse of funds.There are already far too many graduates in those fields for the number jobs available.
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The DUP might find that they don't like all of the attention they are about to get in the public.
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United States43538 Posts
On June 10 2017 00:58 ZeromuS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 00:49 KwarK wrote:On June 10 2017 00:40 ZeromuS wrote:On June 10 2017 00:18 KwarK wrote:
Regarding the Brexit negotiations, they'll have to keep Labour in the loop now because they will need Labour votes. But I just don't foresee the Labour party whip demanding Labour vote against it as a bloc. It's important to rememeber that traditionally it was the neoliberal Conservatives who were pushing the EU while the trade unionist Labour party were vehemently opposed to it. Those blocs still exist but the neoliberal wing of the Conservatives has for the past two decades been silenced by the One Nation Conservatives while the trade unionist Labourites were silenced by Blairites and Brownites.
What it comes down to is that Brexit has crossparty appeal, and appeal particularly to Labour members like Corbyn who is at odds with a lot of his party on the issue. When the time comes the Labour whip is unlikely to demand a full and unified vote against Brexit, the internal political capital of such a whip would be colossal and I just don't think Corbyn has it. Even if he did, the loss with the voters would be worse, Labour would be portrayed as trampling the will of the people, denying the Brexit that the people voted for with zero possibility of introducing their own alternative.
It's not wrong to say that the Conservatives will need some Labour votes when the time comes. However it is wrong to say that they can't expect some. Cameron was far more vocal in his remain campaigning that Corbyn ever was, the Conservative whip will largely hold because they're in power and the Labour whip will be spared. They'll negotiate something that the anti-EU Labour MPs can stomach and on a take it or leave it vote it'll pass. If Corbyn's position is safe, and the loss of Con Majority is seen as a win for him, if hes smart, he will whip the vote for brexit. Which way depends on how he gauges the public perception of the move as it comes closer. But if he allows a free vote, he's a dead leader. It won't give him any more votes in the next legislature. When it comes to large important votes, a party needs to vote as a block if they want to create a narrative going into their next election campaign. How familiar with EU politics within British politics are you? It's been an ongoing argument for forty years now and whips have been tried plenty of times before. Labour doesn't even know if it's a remain or a leave party, New Labour was remain, Old Labour was leave. Political leaders don't win with the EU. Thatcher was stabbed in the back while negotiating in Europe. Maastricht killed Major's government. UKIP leeched a significant amount of Labour's working class support. The referendum got Cameron. You don't win with Europe. Nobody ever has. The idea that Corbyn will demand a party whip on the Brexit bill just doesn't seem realistic to me, presumably you're saying he would require his party vote against such a bill rather than in support of the government. Is there any reason you'd think Corbyn desires to scuttle the exit to the EU? The Blair/Brownite wing of his party does, but Corbyn? I don't know what his bent is. All I am saying is that politically, it is actually really beneficial to whip votes on major policy decisions as a leader. It creates an image of strong unity and consistency in leadership. If a part seems like its split to the public, it doesn't do as well in elections. The real issue is whether Corbyn has the political capital to pull off a whip. I don't know what way he would send it, and the messaging is key. Especially with a minority government to which they are opposition. If they support brexit, but see the negotiations and terms as unfavourable or poor, they could before brexit vote occurs to ratify the full terms, vote no confidence and then propose they could do better. They could support brexit and let it happen and then claim that they all voted for brexit because its what the people wanted, then vote no confidence and trigger a new election alongside others saying they don't want the cons to lead them into a post brexit world. They could, if public opinion turns against brexit entirely, whip an anti brexit vote against the terms entirely. There are a lot of ways to do it. But in the end, voting as a block shows strength in leadership and only further cements them as a stable and better party than the cons under May next time around. It makes campaigning against her much much easier. And if someone replaces her, and the cons have an open vote on the issue, the whip makes labour again, seem stronger. I'm not advocating one position over another. I'm simply saying whipping votes on major policy decisions is politically beneficial to the party and its leader. If corbyn has the political capital to pull it off, he also forces dissidents into backbencher positions, or they can choose to run independent and lose out on the financial support of the party in the next election. Which in a parliament, is a death sentence to almost any politician's public life. Now does he control enough of his party to even take that stance without being ousted outright? Thats the question.
What you're saying doesn't make sense. Labour can't simply trigger a vote of no confidence and expect to win following a successful Brexit bill. The Conservatives won the election, the Conservative-DUP alliance holds a majority. The only vote of no confidence that is likely to happen in the next five years is a failure of the Conservative Brexit bill. If that were rejected then it would be clear that the Conservative Party lack the confidence of the House to lead. Failing that, they're here for the full five years. Labour can't unseat the Conservatives without the help of the Conservatives and the only moment that could happen is over Europe.
The only way the Conservatives possibly lose that vote is if Labour demand a fully unified "Remain" vote on the whip and a few Tories break the whip. The political costs of Labour doing that would be immense. Old Labour and New Labour are still at odds over Europe and the current Labour Party leadership are closer to "Leave" than "Remain". Given the referendum result they would be accused of continuing the same Blairite elitism that the people rejected in 2016 and the anti Europe working classes would desert them for UKIP en masse, exactly as they have in the past.
Likewise if Labour demand a whip in support of the government they alienate huge portions of the ideological public who voted "Remain". The Conservatives are the party of Brexit right now and Labour are the opposition party, they're the de facto party of "Remain", they can't declare themselves to be fully committed to supporting Brexit. It'd be electoral suicide.
That's my point. You simply cannot win when it comes to Europe. The best you can do is simply refuse to play. By allowing the parliamentary Labour party to make a vote on conscience then Corbyn retains the loyalty of his Parliamentary party and allows the people to continue to put whatever labels they want on him without being proven wrong. There is no win condition for a whip against Brexit for Labour, a full whip against will likely not hold, will reopen all the wounds within Labour regarding Europe, will trigger more leadership challenges against him and, even if it did defeat the government (which is unlikely), would destroy them at the polls. And a whip for Brexit would be even worse for them.
The only way to win is not to play.
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EPT
