EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 346
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12386 Posts
How bad is 314 for May, I know they expected more obviously but is that game ending or just a disappointment? | ||
KwarK
United States43536 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:19 ZeromuS wrote: Ok well why are people freaking out over this then. Are majorities that common in the UK? Theyre not super common here in Canada. Yes, majorities are that common. Until the SNP swept Scotland it was a two party system in a FPTP electoral system. There weren't many seats that weren't taken by Conservatives or Labour so one of the two having an outright majority was pretty hard to avoid. SNP destroying Labour in Scotland have fundamentally changed the game. | ||
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hypercube
Hungary2735 Posts
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22212 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:21 Nebuchad wrote: 314 is the number I've seen, if it moves is it more likely to go up or down from there? Or perhaps we can't say How bad is 314 for May, I know they expected more obviously but is that game ending or just a disappointment? due to the shy tory effect, it's likely to move up. in the 2015 election, the exit poll predicted 316 for the tories and they went on to win a majority | ||
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KwarK
United States43536 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:21 Nebuchad wrote: 314 is the number I've seen, if it moves is it more likely to go up or down from there? Or perhaps we can't say How bad is 314 for May, I know they expected more obviously but is that game ending or just a disappointment? A colossal defeat. If the numbers are accurate she may even be forced to resign by the party. A precedent is Ted Heath in 1974. He led the Conservatives to a disappointing result of 297 and then spent a few days as a lame duck PM trying to find some way to retain leadership before the party forced him to concede. It's a result that would clearly indicate May lacks the confidence of the nation, they wouldn't let her stay to fight another election after that. | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22212 Posts
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ZeromuS
Canada13392 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:22 KwarK wrote: Yes, majorities are that common. Until the SNP swept Scotland it was a two party system in a FPTP electoral system. There weren't many seats that weren't taken by Conservatives or Labour so one of the two having an outright majority was pretty hard to avoid. SNP destroying Labour in Scotland have fundamentally changed the game. Wait so going from majority to minority is enough to trigger a leadership race? Is that what im gathering from these posts? Thats so weird to me. Also seems like SNP has split the left wing hard enough to all but guarantee con governments for a political generation from what im reading. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12386 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:13 KwarK wrote: Yes. This was a big constitutional question last year because traditionally foreign policy is a power of the monarch and therefore falls to the Prime Minister through royal prerogative and the Prime Minister refers it to the Foreign Secretary. Treaties can be made and unmade at the will of the cabinet without involving Parliament as a whole. However the British Supreme Court ruled that in this instance it will require a majority vote in the Commons to leave. We make shit up as we go along mostly. Correct me if I'm mistaken, you do NOT mean the vote that was passed in march but a second to confirm the brexit negotiations result? That sounds like a limp foot for the talks with the EU. | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22212 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:26 ZeromuS wrote: Wait so going from majority to minority is enough to trigger a leadership race? Is that what im gathering from these posts? Thats so weird to me. Also seems like SNP has split the left wing hard enough to all but guarantee con governments for a political generation from what im reading. any sort of electoral defeat will usually result with the resignation of the leader of the losign party(ies). and going from a majority to a minority is a defeat. especially given the circumstances. the 2015 election was a bloodbath, many established and senior MPs lost their seats. the labour, libdem and ukip leaders all resigned. | ||
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KwarK
United States43536 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:26 ZeromuS wrote: Wait so going from majority to minority is enough to trigger a leadership race? Is that what im gathering from these posts? Thats so weird to me. Also seems like SNP has split the left wing hard enough to all but guarantee con governments for a political generation from what im reading. SNP hasn't necessarily split it in the sense that people normally think in terms of split votes in FPTP. If the left wing had 60% support and the right wing had 40% then the left wing splitting into 30% and 30% would favour the right. That isn't what the SNP have done. They've just entirely replaced Labour in Scotland. The Tories don't squeeze through the middle. Anything but a majority would be a defeat for May here. Whether she survives that is up to the competence of the assassins within her own cabinet. | ||
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KwarK
United States43536 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:27 Artisreal wrote: Correct me if I'm mistaken, you do NOT mean the vote that was passed in march but a second to confirm the brexit negotiations result? That sounds like a limp foot for the talks with the EU. Yes, a second vote. The British government needs to put together a bill that amends and annuls all of the previous EU treaties grandfathered into British law. But it'll be passed when they do, neither main party would oppose it. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22073 Posts
They lost the referendum. And now May declared elections thinking it would be an easy conservative win for an even bigger majority and instead they are looking to lose said majority? Oh boy there is some irony in that. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12386 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:32 KwarK wrote: Yes, a second vote. The British government needs to put together a bill that amends and annuls all of the previous EU treaties grandfathered into British law. But it'll be passed when they do, neither main party would oppose it. Alright, thanks for clearing that up for me. So today's result will impact brexit only inasmuch as the winner is going to pick the delegation's members, not at all or even differently? | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png) When will the final results be known? Middle of the night? Tomorrow morning? | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On June 09 2017 06:36 Nebuchad wrote: I mean if last time the exit poll was 316 and they got the majority anyway the news sites are being super dramatic right now. Shock, disaster, "voters punish Tories", bit early for that. If it holds the Tories just basically blundered three years of majority government away. That's absolutely hilarious and I guess unprecedented? The Tories seriously need to stop shoving people to the voting booths at random intervals, it's not working for them | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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