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bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
January 20 2017 01:01 GMT
#5261
On January 20 2017 07:35 LegalLord wrote:
Sovereignty or financial center, pick one.

If Brexit were not to be followed by a recession at the least, I'd be very impressed.


Uhm, no. Unless you know something that the boss of Barclays doesn't.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38675558

Loss of jobs processing euros was one of the only inevitabilities from leaving the single market. That does not mean that London ceases to be a financial centre. Singapore, New York, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai - the other major centres, all outside the EU. It is the loss of one advantage that London has over those centres, but without EU regulation the city can be more competitive in general, and a conservative government, in particular, is likely to work hard to incentivise banks to stay and invest further.

HSBC, for example, made the decision to keep its international HQ in London (having taken the possibility of Brexit into account). And again, for context, there was never any chance of it moving to the continent. It was a choice between London or east Asia.

Losing the ability to process euro transactions means moving some operations into the EU. It does not undo any of the other strengths of the City.

For reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_centre
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6223 Posts
January 20 2017 07:46 GMT
#5262
London will lose some of its importance as a financial centre but it's too large and important to collapse just because of Brexit. London (and GB) still has a lot of things going for it.

Long term there aren't enough college educated people to fill all the positions in Britain though so if they don't want immigrants (as looks to be the case now) those jobs will move abroad.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
January 20 2017 08:40 GMT
#5263
Various polls have shown overwhelming support for skilled immigration, though. The backlash is mostly against unskilled immigration and immigrants who make no attempt to integrate. One thing that I would like to see (and that has majority support in all the countries in question) is free movement, and closer cooperation in general, between Canada, Australia, NZ and the UK. It's mostly symbolic though, so its not being taken very seriously by governments. Each of these countries have made it clear they want free trade deals ASAP, though, which is a start.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6223 Posts
January 20 2017 09:16 GMT
#5264
Yet foreign students have to leave the country asap when they've finished their studies. Not to mention that the working class usually has great contempt for the elite (and especially bankers). We'll see what May has in mind.

The problem facing Britain in general after Brexit is that negotiating trade deals takes years. Even if the intention is there it'll take a while before they're actually ratified. The only way to do it faster with for example Canada is to take the existing CETA agreement and tweak it. That kind of defeats the purpose though since one of the advantages of negotiating your own trade deals is that you only have to take into consideration your own interests, not those of the whole EU like it is now.

The other problem with stronger cooperation with those countries (always a good thing of course) is that they're far away and lack size. They're just no substitute for good relations with the EU. Maybe combined with the US it'll come close but who knows how that will work out with Trump.
Pandemona *
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Charlie Sheens House51490 Posts
January 20 2017 09:18 GMT
#5265
Think May said in her speech or at least basically meant it. That we will continue to allow Dr's Nurses and high educated people into the country no questions but someone to come over and work in a factory for example aint gonna happen anymore.
ModeratorTeam Liquid Football Thread Guru! - Chelsea FC ♥
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
January 20 2017 13:08 GMT
#5266
The problem is that now they have to go through further bureaucratic steps in order to do so, whereas now it is far simpler to attract highly skilled workers from the EU and they are now more unlikely to want to work in the UK. Then again UK does attract large amounts of Indian doctors for whatever reason, so it can't be too complicated. An additional problem rather closer to my heart, is that British citizens, whether highly skilled professionals or otherwise, will lose the ability to live and work in the EU freely.
Pandemona *
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Charlie Sheens House51490 Posts
January 20 2017 14:27 GMT
#5267
Well May did address that saying, if you give our nationals in Europe fair treatment we will do so yours. Which is nice as i agree people based in Europe working which are English should be looked after and in that case we will look after whoever is here.
ModeratorTeam Liquid Football Thread Guru! - Chelsea FC ♥
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
January 20 2017 15:43 GMT
#5268
If nationals of the EU are denied free movement into a non-EU UK, then fair treatment would be the denial of free movement for non-EU UK nationals into the EU. I am talking about the future, not about current UK nationals in the EU.

I am sure that barring complete incompetence from May's government, current EU nationals in UK can remain in UK, and current UK nationals in the EU can remain in the EU. Anything else would be cutting off your own nose to spite your face. That said, it has taken an awfully long time for May to actually confirm that this would be the case and damage has already been done.
MyTHicaL
Profile Joined November 2005
France1070 Posts
January 20 2017 16:00 GMT
#5269
"we cannot separate free movement of people from the free flow of goods, services and investments" - From a senior Indian Official on the prospects of creating a bilateral trade agreement between the UK and India.

Rofl, does it sound familiar to anyone?
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
January 20 2017 22:59 GMT
#5270
On January 20 2017 09:26 Shield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 07:35 LegalLord wrote:
Sovereignty or financial center, pick one.

If Brexit were not to be followed by a recession at the least, I'd be very impressed.


Well, that's why I'm considering moving to the USA. The UK is out of the European Union. Recession will last at least 5 years. So why should I stay? Have your cake and eat it. :D

Well when it comes to being able to make money for people with a degree, the US can't be beat.

There are other problems here. Although if you moved from Bulgaria to the UK (as I presume by the country tags) then you might as well move a tiny bit further.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9661 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-21 21:02:32
January 21 2017 21:01 GMT
#5271
Excellent article on the BBC about an attempt to lobby German business leaders to support a good deal for the UK on Brexit:

The distinguished audience members were too polite to heckle. But the eye rolling, frowns and audible tutting made it quite clear how the Brexiteers' message was going down with German business leaders.
Owen Paterson, a former minister and Conservative MP, and John Longworth, co-chair of Leave Means Leave, came to Berlin on Saturday with a clear mission - to persuade German business leaders to lobby Chancellor Angela Merkel to give Britain a good trade deal.
They should have been on safe territory.
The two men are confident, witty speakers with impressive business and free-trade credentials.
Mr Longworth is a former head of the British Chamber of Commerce. Mr Paterson's years spent trading in Germany meant he could open his address with a few remarks in German - which drew an appreciative round of applause - and a well-judged joke about multilingual trade.
But it turned out they had entered the lion's den.


The laughter from the audience quickly turned to sniggers as they heard the UK described as "a beacon of open, free trade around the world".
Westminster's decision to leave the world's largest free trade area does not look like that to Germany.
When Europe was blamed for spending cuts and a lack of British health care provision, there were audible mutters of irritation from the audience.
The occasional light-hearted attempts at EU-bashing - usually guaranteed to get a cheap laugh with some British audiences - was met with stony silence.
Brexiteers argue German manufacturers will want to still sell to UK customers
In another setting - at another time - this gathering of the elite of Germany's powerful business community would have lapped up the British wit.
Every ironic quip would ordinarily have had them rolling in the aisles. But British charm does not travel well these days.
Rattled by the economic havoc Brexit could unleash, Germans are not in the mood for gags.
Britain used to be seen by continentals as quirky and occasionally awkward - but reliably pragmatic on the economy.
However, since the Brexit vote, Europeans suspect endearing eccentricity has morphed into unpredictable irrationality. The UK has become the tipsy, tweedy uncle, who after too much Christmas sherry has tipped over into drunkenly abusive bore.

When the audience was asked how many of them welcomed Brexit, only one hand went up - and it turned out that belonged to a businessman who wanted more EU reform and was fed up with Britain slowing things down.
Brexiteer rhetoric over the past year has often focused on the size of Britain's market and how keen German manufacturers are to sell to British customers.
Many leave campaigners remain convinced that German business leaders will force Mrs Merkel to grant the UK a special free trade deal in order not to lose British trade.
But that's not what's happening.


Angela Merkel has said Britain will not be able to cherry-pick the best bits of the single market
Instead German firms are remarkably united in their support of the chancellor in her rejection of British "cherry-picking" - even if it means losing business in the short-term.
When you talk to German bosses they say their top priority is in fact the integrity of the single market, rather than hanging on to British customers.
That's because their supply chains span across the EU.
A German car might be designed in Germany, manufactured in Britain, with components made in various parts of eastern Europe, to be sold in France. This only works if there are no cross-border tariffs, paperwork or red tape.
Support for Merkel
German companies - more often family-owned and with deeper connections to their regional heartlands - tend to look at the wider picture, sometimes thinking more long-term.
They supported Mrs Merkel on sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, even though that meant a blow to trade. The financial hit was deemed less bad for business than worsening unrest in nearby Ukraine.
The same calculations are being made over Brexit.


Theresa May's speech on Brexit last week made front page news in Germany
This doesn't mean German business is thinking politically, and not economically. But rather, it indicates a wider attitude towards how business can thrive long-term.
German business leaders tell you that the British market may be important. But it is only one market, compared to 27 markets in the rest of the EU.
Leave campaigners also still underestimate the political and historical significance of the EU for Germany, where it is seen as the guarantor of peace after centuries of warfare.
It is tempting to see the clashes between Westminster and the EU27 as one big decades-long misunderstanding of what the EU is.
An idealistic peace-project versus a pragmatic free-trade zone. This makes it even more ironic that London may reject the free-trade area it spent so much time creating.
Same old arguments
Germany was shocked and saddened by the UK's vote to leave the EU. But the decision was quickly accepted in Berlin.
"The Brits never really wanted to be members of the European Union anyway," is something you often hear these days.
Many Germans now want to just work out a solution that does the least amount of harm to the European economy. Hence the irritation in Germany when British politicians keep rehashing the pre-referendum debate.
"It was frustrating to hear the same old arguments from the referendum campaign," one business leader told me when I asked him what he had thought about Saturday's discussion.
Germany has moved on, he said. Maybe Britain should too.
The Brexiteers might not have persuaded their audience in Berlin. But if they return to London with a better idea of the mood in Germany's business community, then the trip may well have been worthwhile.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38707997
RIP Meatloaf <3
MyTHicaL
Profile Joined November 2005
France1070 Posts
January 21 2017 21:07 GMT
#5272
Not surprising... I doubt it will do anything to dissipate the fog from the eyes of the ignorant. But it should at least cause some who actually believe that
The UK, objectively, has the upperhand in negotiations
to question the certainty of their misfounded beliefs.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
January 21 2017 22:27 GMT
#5273
Germans like the EU and don't like Brexit. This is somehow news to you?

People still seem to be confused after May's speech. There will be no cherry picking of the four freedoms - we are leaving the EU and the single market. Forget about those freedoms, they are no longer applicable to the situation. It will be a free trade deal, and if they don't push for low/no tariffs it will cost them money. Money that they will have to pay directly to the British government. So...?

The EU is an incredible engine for the exploitation of Europe by Germany (and German business). They profit from it enormously, and this is a lose/lose situation for them. It is naive to expect them to be receptive to humour on the subject, but it does not change the balance of the negotiation.

Please explain why I'm wrong.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-22 00:59:26
January 22 2017 00:58 GMT
#5274
bardtown, theres an inherent contradiction in saying that UK is leaving the single market and that there will be a free trade deal. In the end it will be UK which will suffer the most by leaving the single market. By leaving the single market, the default state will be back to WTO rules which will mean tarriffs. If UK decides to no longer to follow with EU rules, then tarriffs will have to be applied, otherwise they will be operating under unfair advantages or the exporting business will have to face compliance rules even with no tarriffs. It is up to you to explain how it isn't so. Either way, british businesses will lose money. UK will lose money. It is guaranteed that this will be more economic damage for British businesses than for the businesses in the EU countries.

In the end, all countries in the EU, including UK benefit enormously from being in the EU. It is true that after the financial crisis, Germany had become the leading economy in the EU, but before that it was France and the UK. That UK is leaving the EU is also a lose/lose so to speak in your lingo. Ultimately you do not provide any substance or reasoning to back up your jingoistic rambling assumptions.

Also stop saying "we". Stop saying "it will". You do not represent the UK. You also cannot tell the future, nor are you responsible for negotiations. Stop talking like a football fan talking about their team. Stop appealing to tribalism; it isn't helpful to a discussion. Stop saying "we", "it" and "they". Define rather than generalise your words. Stop sounding like you are just repeating something you read off the Daily Star and provide actual reasoning.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-22 03:44:59
January 22 2017 03:37 GMT
#5275
We, that is to say the UK, have a huge trade deficit with them, that is to say the EU. If WTO trade tariffs apply between our countries, then EU businesses will have to pay much more than UK businesses. As such, the UK government can simply compensate UK businesses which export into the EU such that they lose nothing, while EU businesses will lose a great deal and the UK will make profit. Understand this - it's important. This is the logic behind the whole 'no deal is better than a bad deal' phrase. It is therefore in the interests of the EU to have no tariffs. Unfortunately, that would be seen as giving the UK everything they wanted - free trade without paying into the EU, accepting free movement, etc. Therefore, they feel the need to push for some sort of sanction to make the UK suffer so that others won't see leaving the EU as an attractive option. But, again, if they enforce tariffs, it costs them more than it costs us. Thus, lose lose.

The compromise will be very, very complicated but there is no contradiction. The EU has FTAs with many countries. They all include exceptions and caveats. The EU can say, for example, 'We will have no tariffs on motor vehicles providing that the UK follows EU rules in their manufacture.' The UK has things that they need. I have explained all of this 100 times already and you have helpfully ignored it, but in particular the UK has a market that will become the EU's single biggest export market and financial services which EU banking is completely dependent upon. As such, they can only push so hard. And in the end it's in everybody's interests to have a deal with very low tariffs and close cooperation. The only thing damaged by agreeing a favourable trade agreement will be the EU's image. Then again, if they appear too bitter it's not going to do their image any good, either. There must be a reason that the US and the rest of the international community saw Brexit as making the UK more attractive. Maybe our self-expressed desire to be a global nation once more, not shrouded by EU bureaucracy?
OVERALL ATTRACTIVENESS: 36 per cent of people in EU countries2 said Brexit had had a negative impact on the UK’s overall attractiveness as a country (compared to 17 per cent who said positive). However, in Commonwealth nations3 33 per cent saw Brexit as having a positive impact on overall attractiveness compared to 20 per cent negative. The figures for the rest of the G204 were 35 per cent positive and 17 per cent negative. The UK’s overall rank for attractiveness remained high – fourth in the world when considering tourism, studying, arts and culture, making personal contacts, and doing business and trade.

TRUST IN PEOPLE: When asked about the Brexit vote and their trust in people from the UK, 33 per cent of EU nations said that it had had a negative impact, 16 per cent positive. However, in Commonwealth nations 31 per cent saw the vote as having a positive impact on their trust in people from the UK compared to 18 per cent negative.The figures for the rest of the G20 were 32 per cent positive and 15 per cent negative.

https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/press/british-council-releases-new-post-brexit-g20-survey

If it's a hard break, there is a legitimate chance that Italian banks go under, and the consequences of that would be catastrophic. At this particular juncture, the wise option for all involved is a gentle transition.

But really there's no point in me replying to you because I give extensive reasoning and evidence in many posts and you still claim that I 'do not provide any substance or reasoning'. Go back through the thread and see if you can find someone who posts more sources/explanations than I do. As for your language policing, you've probably figured out my answer if you made it this far.
MyTHicaL
Profile Joined November 2005
France1070 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-22 16:11:20
January 22 2017 13:32 GMT
#5276
So your argument is because you, as a country, depend more on imports from the EU than exports to the EU which signifies that you now have the advantage in the negotiations? Just *facepalms*
No one needs to go back and re-read anything you've posted unless it's to guarantee the level of Bullshit you claim to. Not only do you obliviously and fanatically believe that Brexit was the best choice you also have this complete idiotic opinion that the entire EU of 27 countries is set to imminently fail. I have to ask your age, you write- and share opinions of, a 65 year old. You should watch South Park; the memberberries episode that specifically references Brexit, they love to insult everyone but you gotta appreciate the satire.

Oh look, another one to couple with India.. and the EU -_-.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-brexit-theresa-may-alexander-downer-free-trade-deal-immigration-rules-a7539071.html

WTF is that completely useless poll link for? You've tried to post before about overall attractiveness. It means absolutely nothing. Even worse than your hilarious 1973 poll link.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
January 22 2017 19:29 GMT
#5277
Uh... what?

Theresa May has repeatedly refused to confirm whether she knew about a reported failed Trident test when she addressed parliament during a debate on the renewal of Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

An unarmed Trident II D5 missile veered in the wrong direction towards the US when it was launched from a British submarine off the coast of Florida in June last year, the Sunday Times reported.

It quoted an unnamed senior naval source as saying that the “disastrous failure” caused panic in Downing Street, which feared it would damage the credibility of Britain’s nuclear deterrent and so decided to cover it up.

In July, weeks after the test and days after May became prime minister, MPs voted overwhelmingly to spend up to £40bn on replacing Britain’s Trident programme. May drew gasps during the parliamentary debate when she made clear she would be willing to authorise a nuclear strike killing 100,000 people. However, she made no mention of the test and both Labour and the SNP have demanded to know why.

Appearing on BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show, the prime minister repeatedly declined to answer whether she knew about the test when she addressed parliament during the debate. She was asked by Marr on four separate occasions whether she knew about the alleged misfire.

She said: “There are tests that take place all the time, regularly, for our nuclear deterrents. What we were talking about in that debate that took place was about the future.”

The report says that the missile fired from HMS Vengeance was supposed to hit an intended sea target off the west coast of Africa. It states that the cause of the problem is unknown but that it suffered an in-flight malfunction after launching out of the water.

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, a lifelong campaigner against nuclear weapons, said the incident should give everyone pause for thought.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9661 Posts
January 22 2017 19:31 GMT
#5278
If she won't answer the question why won't Corbyn leap on this and try to use it to damage her credibility as much as possible? I mean,she's there for the taking surely.
RIP Meatloaf <3
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
January 22 2017 20:01 GMT
#5279
On January 22 2017 22:32 MyTHicaL wrote:
So your argument is because you, as a country, depend more on imports from the EU than exports to the EU which signifies that you now have the advantage in the negotiations? Just *facepalms*
No one needs to go back and re-read anything you've posted unless it's to guarantee the level of Bullshit you claim to. Not only do you obliviously and fanatically believe that Brexit was the best choice you also have this complete idiotic opinion that the entire EU of 27 countries is set to imminently fail. I have to ask your age, you write- and share opinions of, a 65 year old. You should watch South Park; the memberberries episode that specifically references Brexit, they love to insult everyone but you gotta appreciate the satire.

Oh look, another one to couple with India.. and the EU -_-.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-brexit-theresa-may-alexander-downer-free-trade-deal-immigration-rules-a7539071.html

WTF is that completely useless poll link for? You've tried to post before about overall attractiveness. It means absolutely nothing. Even worse than your hilarious 1973 poll link.

You're mistaking importing for being dependent on imports. There are very few products produced in the EU that we cannot import from elsewhere, particularly once we dismantle the ridiculous barriers to external trade the EU has erected. I'm not going to answer about my age because when I previously answered your personal queries you just implied I was lying. I also don't care for your opinions on my links, as you invariably dismiss them out of hand.

Maybe you didn't notice but I want completely free movement/trade between the UK, AUS, CAN and NZ - as do the majority of people in all those countries - and I resent the fact that we ever moved away from those countries to waste our time with the EU.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
January 22 2017 20:13 GMT
#5280
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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