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On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market.
Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight.
However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new.
EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you  And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along.
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On December 03 2013 02:08 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market. Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight. However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new. EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along.
Which is why its important that MaestroSC said it was money he could afford to lose. Anyone spending money on Bitcoins that he cant afford to lose is looking to get burned bad. Its an investment with limited risk (you can afford to lose the money) but good potential profits.
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On December 03 2013 02:08 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market. Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight. However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new. EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along.
it wouldnt loss value if the US bans it because it will just go underground. they cant ban bittorrent downloading so think about this.
another thing, if any country decides to ban bitcoin some other country will profit from accepting it. just like gambling sites go abroad.
if u do a little research and actually have a bit of bitcoin u will probably soon realize u can get anything with bitcoin just like u can with paypal or creditcards (- the fee)
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On December 03 2013 02:48 Chrono000 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 02:08 Acrofales wrote:On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market. Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight. However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new. EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along. it wouldnt loss value if the US bans it because it will just go underground. they cant ban bittorrent downloading so think about this. another thing, if any country decides to ban bitcoin some other country will profit from accepting it. just like gambling sites go abroad. if u do a little research and actually have a bit of bitcoin u will probably soon realize u can get anything with bitcoin just like u can with paypal or creditcards (- the fee)
The value would certainly go down. If the US outlawed the bitcoin then it would be illegal for an online retailer or local retailer in the US to accept bitcoins. They could force companies over seas to prevent US citizen from buying bitcoins, this kind of thing the US already does with certain services.
For example, lots of countries forbid you to have sex with a child outside the country. Say you live in England, go to Taiwan to partake in child prostitution. If you come back and they find out, they can charge you. Sure, they might not find out, but just the risk of them finding out will lower the amount of people that would go for sex tourism. Same thing with bitcoins.
And therefore if the US banned the bitcoin:
1) Less places to use bitcoins legally --> price drops
2) Fright for consumers of consequences of using bit coins illegally --> price drops
3) Companies abandoning bitcoins all together to prevent the hassle --> price drops
4) More uncertainty about future of BTC(other governments to follow suit?) --> price drops
Of course you cannot just ban it, if it becomes large enough... It'd be like making billions of dollars vanish in a second. Investors with millions in BTC would oppose it, same principle as how you can't allow GM go bankrupt in a really short amount of time because the influx of unemployed individuals would mess with the economy in too many ways.
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On December 03 2013 03:22 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 02:48 Chrono000 wrote:On December 03 2013 02:08 Acrofales wrote:On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market. Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight. However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new. EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along. it wouldnt loss value if the US bans it because it will just go underground. they cant ban bittorrent downloading so think about this. another thing, if any country decides to ban bitcoin some other country will profit from accepting it. just like gambling sites go abroad. if u do a little research and actually have a bit of bitcoin u will probably soon realize u can get anything with bitcoin just like u can with paypal or creditcards (- the fee) The value would certainly go down. If the US outlawed the bitcoin then it would be illegal for an online retailer or local retailer in the US to accept bitcoins. They could force companies over seas to prevent US citizen from buying bitcoins, this kind of thing the US already does with certain services. For example, lots of countries forbid you to have sex with a child outside the country. Say you live in England, go to Taiwan to partake in child prostitution. If you come back and they find out, they can charge you. Sure, they might not find out, but just the risk of them finding out will lower the amount of people that would go for sex tourism. Same thing with bitcoins. And therefore if the US banned the bitcoin: 1) Less places to use bitcoins legally --> price drops 2) Fright for consumers of consequences of using bit coins illegally --> price drops 3) Companies abandoning bitcoins all together to prevent the hassle --> price drops 4) More uncertainty about future of BTC(other governments to follow suit?) --> price drops
well its a lot like bittorrent. what is anyone ever gona do about it. using sex tourism isnt the best example but i get what u mean.
the price wont plummet as much as people would think though. maybe if a large portion of the planet bans it it would plummet and even then it would still be used because its just the next step for money.
say good bye to international money transfer fees and limits.
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On December 03 2013 03:22 FiWiFaKi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 02:48 Chrono000 wrote:On December 03 2013 02:08 Acrofales wrote:On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market. Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight. However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new. EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along. it wouldnt loss value if the US bans it because it will just go underground. they cant ban bittorrent downloading so think about this. another thing, if any country decides to ban bitcoin some other country will profit from accepting it. just like gambling sites go abroad. if u do a little research and actually have a bit of bitcoin u will probably soon realize u can get anything with bitcoin just like u can with paypal or creditcards (- the fee) The value would certainly go down. If the US outlawed the bitcoin then it would be illegal for an online retailer or local retailer in the US to accept bitcoins. They could force companies over seas to prevent US citizen from buying bitcoins, this kind of thing the US already does with certain services. For example, lots of countries forbid you to have sex with a child outside the country. Say you live in England, go to Taiwan to partake in child prostitution. If you come back and they find out, they can charge you. Sure, they might not find out, but just the risk of them finding out will lower the amount of people that would go for sex tourism. Same thing with bitcoins. And therefore if the US banned the bitcoin: 1) Less places to use bitcoins legally --> price drops 2) Fright for consumers of consequences of using bit coins illegally --> price drops 3) Companies abandoning bitcoins all together to prevent the hassle --> price drops 4) More uncertainty about future of BTC(other governments to follow suit?) --> price drops
however like people have stated, that also gives other countries the chance to profit from bitcoin success, similar to online poker. It moved out of the US... so did all of the money associated with it, people didnt just stop playing. (well some did..but not the career players).
Also for every worry about bitcoins being banned, there are thousands of articles a week that show that most countries are either investing in or supporting bitcoins. Again im not usually a Reddit fanboy, but their Bitcoin section has literally thousands of articles from all over the globe about bitcoin, there are both negative and positive opinions on them, but the positive seems to outnumber the negative.
I mean yesterday r/bitcoin was full of nothing but douchebags looking to shout "I TOLD YOU SO" and try to rub a "crash" into peoples faces... but today they are back at 1040 on mtgox, so those posts ended within a couple hours.
IDK the more and more research I do, the more i believe that bitcoins will succeed. Im still not selling my house and investing 300k in bitcoins and /praying but i get more and more comfortable with investing in them the more research I do.
Also like you said, if it becomes big enough... it cant be banned. A lot of people are speculating that Bitcoins will see play at the stock market level next year, where major players and investors will be looking to stick their toes into bitcoin, and eventually dive in if they see the opportunity to make money.
Once the major players are in... bitcoin will be set, because as we all know.. in a capitalistic society, the money controls the government...we just have to call them special interest groups and ignore the facts to avoid realizing how terrifying that is.
Anyways Ill give my own personal strategy for bitcoins: Invest only what I can afford to lose. Dont sell until I have enough to change my life... or lose it all tryin. (kinda stole the last one from 50cent rofl). Until then Im just kinda strappin on a helmet, throwing my hands in the air and yelling "WOOOOO"
lmao. Just jumpin on the rollercoaster... the ride is rewarding and exciting all by itself.
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On December 03 2013 03:32 MaestroSC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 03:22 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 02:48 Chrono000 wrote:On December 03 2013 02:08 Acrofales wrote:On December 03 2013 02:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:On December 03 2013 01:45 Acrofales wrote:
I am not an economist and not a big speculator either, but bitcoins as a long-term investment seems incredibly risky. Hard to say really. What's sure is that in short-term there is high-volatility, so at least in the short-term short-term it is a get-rich-quick/go-bankrupt-quick investment. In the long-term however, it does have a general upwards trend, and as it's gaining more popularity, this trend should continue going up unless something drastic happens that changes the value of the bitcoin. So as long as nothing bad happens I'd say it'd be a very profitable investment in the long-term. The chances of something bad happening to the bitcoin are hard to calculate. What could screw over the bitcoin? A better virtual currency, huge threats of hacking the scare people away, what else? It's all really hard to say and lots of speculation involved. Also it's important to note that the bitcoin may not be such a simple market, and government forces can play a role in determining it's value. A quick little article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101200996Just some insight on how the price of the bitcoin works, and how governments may influence it's price. In this case it discusses China and it's effects on it. Interesting how many different things can play a role in this dynamic market. Well, the first and foremost thing that I can see hurting bitcoins longterm is that the government can decide it doesn't want another coin competing with the USD and ban its use in the US. That will make bitcoins pretty much worthless overnight. However, it is a very new thing, and nobody has any clue how it'll pan out yet. Sure, if you're looking for a high risk, high reward longtime investment option, then go for it, but the optimism right now is not justified by any past results: it is completely brand new. EDIT: you went long on bitcoins and made it big. Congrats to you And there will obviously be success stories like that. However, don't forget there were plenty of success stories with the dotcom boom as well, but there were also people who lost all their savings overnight. Currently nobody knows yet whether bitcoin will settle down to be a healthy currency, or it's a brief boom until people find serious flaws, governments act against it, or something better comes along. it wouldnt loss value if the US bans it because it will just go underground. they cant ban bittorrent downloading so think about this. another thing, if any country decides to ban bitcoin some other country will profit from accepting it. just like gambling sites go abroad. if u do a little research and actually have a bit of bitcoin u will probably soon realize u can get anything with bitcoin just like u can with paypal or creditcards (- the fee) The value would certainly go down. If the US outlawed the bitcoin then it would be illegal for an online retailer or local retailer in the US to accept bitcoins. They could force companies over seas to prevent US citizen from buying bitcoins, this kind of thing the US already does with certain services. For example, lots of countries forbid you to have sex with a child outside the country. Say you live in England, go to Taiwan to partake in child prostitution. If you come back and they find out, they can charge you. Sure, they might not find out, but just the risk of them finding out will lower the amount of people that would go for sex tourism. Same thing with bitcoins. And therefore if the US banned the bitcoin: 1) Less places to use bitcoins legally --> price drops 2) Fright for consumers of consequences of using bit coins illegally --> price drops 3) Companies abandoning bitcoins all together to prevent the hassle --> price drops 4) More uncertainty about future of BTC(other governments to follow suit?) --> price drops however like people have stated, that also gives other countries the chance to profit from bitcoin success, similar to online poker. It moved out of the US... so did all of the money associated with it, people didnt just stop playing. (well some did..but not the career players). Also for every worry about bitcoins being banned, there are thousands of articles a week that show that most countries are either investing in or supporting bitcoins. Again im not usually a Reddit fanboy, but their Bitcoin section has literally thousands of articles from all over the globe about bitcoin, there are both negative and positive opinions on them, but the positive seems to outnumber the negative. I mean yesterday r/bitcoin was full of nothing but douchebags looking to shout "I TOLD YOU SO" and try to rub a "crash" into peoples faces... but today they are back at 1040 on mtgox, so those posts ended within a couple hours. IDK the more and more research I do, the more i believe that bitcoins will succeed. Im still not selling my house and investing 300k in bitcoins and /praying but i get more and more comfortable with investing in them the more research I do.
Oh, I agree with you. I don't think bitcoins will get banned, my post was just "what would happen if it did get banned" in response to the quoted post. But bitcoins allow illegal activity to be performed in an easier way, tax evasion may be easier if you keep all your currency in BTC... Therefore monitoring will be needed, the question is how viable this monitoring will be, is it even possible? Many and many of these solutions are being worked out, and things are looking bright, but in reality something may behave differently than predicted by economists. If not done right there are negative implications to society, and it could potentially be bad enough that a ban would actually be the best solution. Again, while I don't think it's the most probable solution, it's something that needs to be taken into account.
And about your poker example, prices are more or less determined by money supply according to basic economic theory. If money supply doubles, so will the prices. Now it isn't exactly like this, and it differs between different economies, but as money supply goes up, so do the prices. Cutting the US out of the market would lower the money supply effectively (less money can be spent on bitcoins globally), hence the price of the bitcoin will decrease. It doesn't mean the bitcoin got worse, it's effective worth is still the same, although the price would decrease.
Bitcoins are liked because they would improve society if we made them work. It's a new invention like the computer. But the thing is not everything that would improve society is implemented due to them just not working. Example, communism - if communism worked it would have been really great. Friendly society, everyone is treated fairly, etc... Of course it didn't work, and we learned those reasons after it actually happened.
Now this may also be the case with bitcoin... I hope we see it succeed, but if it was so guaranteed to succeed the price would be even higher than it is now. The reason the price isn't going even higher is because there is still uncertainty. We don't know if it'll succeed, what we do know though, is that there is a pretty good correlation between the price of a BTC and it's chance to succeed. So if the price stays like this, I'd say the odds are pretty good.
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If you only invest what you can afford to lose, you'll never become rich.
Say there are 3 investments that have an 80% chance of doubling your money, and you have 500,000 in property, and 20,000 in savings. What do you do? Do you invest your 20,000 between the 3 investments, or do you sell your property/take a 500,000 loan and invest 520,000 between the 3 investments? Sure, you might lose everything, but are the probabilities of you making money large enough for you to take the risk? What would you do in this case? I would invest the 520,000 and take my odds.
Anyway, I'm sure most people have heard this before, but:
Everything you do in life comes down to odds, and increasing them. Nothing is ever for certain. You go to McDonald's and you can either by a Big Mac or McChicken... You've never had either, which one do you buy? The one you are more likely going to enjoy more. Even after you buy one of the choices and it tastes delicious, you still don't know whether you'd like it more than the other.
Okay... So that was pretty off-topic I suppose, but what I was trying to get at is this. Invest as much money as you want, do your research, estimate your probabilities, and if the probabilities work for you - take them.
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On December 03 2013 04:00 FiWiFaKi wrote:
If you only invest what you can afford to lose, you'll never become rich. You're dead wrong here. Many people have become millionaires by spending modestly and investing wisely/safely. You don't need to take excessive risk at all. It's very feasible to become rich by driving a cheap car and not wasting your money on stupid things. Maybe if you want to become a multi-billionaire, but that's beside the point and certainly not a requisite for being rich.
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On December 03 2013 04:00 FiWiFaKi wrote:
If you only invest what you can afford to lose, you'll never become rich.
Say there are 3 investments that have an 80% chance of doubling your money, and you have 500,000 in property, and 20,000 in savings. What do you do? Do you invest your 20,000 between the 3 investments, or do you sell your property/take a 500,000 loan and invest 520,000 between the 3 investments? Sure, you might lose everything, but are the probabilities of you making money large enough for you to take the risk? What would you do in this case? I would invest the 520,000 and take my odds.
Anyway, I'm sure most people have heard this before, but:
Everything you do in life comes down to odds, and increasing them. Nothing is ever for certain. You go to McDonald's and you can either by a Big Mac or McChicken... You've never had either, which one do you buy? The one you are more likely going to enjoy more. Even after you buy one of the choices and it tastes delicious, you still don't know whether you'd like it more than the other.
Okay... So that was pretty off-topic I suppose, but what I was trying to get at is this. Invest as much money as you want, do your research, estimate your probabilities, and if the probabilities work for you - take them.
so what you are saying... is i should sell my house... take my 315k... and invest it all in bitcoins... and if the price even goes up... $100... then ill have made 31,500,000... why are u making this so tempting...
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As much as I spammed people on IRC about bitcoins I forgot to buy some and now I've missed the bubble.
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On December 03 2013 04:05 calgar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 04:00 FiWiFaKi wrote:
If you only invest what you can afford to lose, you'll never become rich. You're dead wrong here. Many people have become millionaires by spending modestly and investing wisely/safely. You don't need to take excessive risk at all. It's very feasible to become rich by driving a cheap car and not wasting your money on stupid things. Maybe if you want to become a multi-billionaire, but that's beside the point and certainly not a requisite for being rich.
Well depends what you want. Let me give you an example of someone that is very successful here in Canada that plays it safe:
Go to university, take engineering, or law. Finish at age 22-25. After 10 years, be successful and make $150,000 a year - 30% average tax rate, $105,000. A small house here is $400,000, say I want a decent sized house, and a Honda Civic, with everything. My expenses for myself would be about $60,000 to live a mid-class life. Okay, so I save $45,000 a year. So lets say that's 45,000 a year for 10 years, I don't want to use an annuity calculator so lets use this. A real investment rate of about 3% (5% interest with 2% inflation), so that's probably around $600,000 in 10 years?
Let's say for the next 20 years you save $80,000 a year because you have been doing very very well with your career. So in 20 years that $600,000 will become $1,100,000 and that $80,000/year will become $2,500,000.
Okay so for working 30 years and living an average life even though your career went amazingly well, you've only saved $3,600,000. Now you are 52-55 years old. Now you can retire, now assuming you expect yourself to live until 82-85, you'd have about $100,000-$110,000 a year to spend. Now this is by no means bad, but all it is upper-middle class. This is not rich.
This too was assuming you are making $150,000-$200,000 a year which is very very good. This example shows you can be well off with proper investment, but it also shows that money will constrain you. You can't go around and buy a ferrari like it's nothing, you wont take first class flights wherever you go. In my eyes this is very well off - not rich.
You have to take risks to get ahead of the game, just my view though. Nothing wrong with playing it safe and have a guaranteed good life, but it depends what you're after.
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This might just be pointing out the obvious... but Fiwifaki, does this mean you are not interested in the future or Bitcoins? Or do not believe they will be worth more eventually? Because you said you cashed out for your 3/4 of a million.
I mean if you believed in it, you would obviously re-invest at least some of it right?
Just looking for your .02 really regarding the future of it.
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On December 03 2013 04:24 MaestroSC wrote:
This might just be pointing out the obvious... but Fiwifaki, does this mean you are not interested in the future or Bitcoins? Or do not believe they will be worth more eventually? Because you said you cashed out for your 3/4 of a million.
I mean if you believed in it, you would obviously re-invest at least some of it right?
Just looking for your .02 really regarding the future of it.
? 3/4 million so he had bitcoins and now is arguing the negatives on bitcoin?
anyway id like more bitcoin merchents around everywhere, no more fees!!!! no more waste!
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On December 03 2013 04:24 MaestroSC wrote:
This might just be pointing out the obvious... but Fiwifaki, does this mean you are not interested in the future or Bitcoins? Or do not believe they will be worth more eventually? Because you said you cashed out for your 3/4 of a million.
I mean if you believed in it, you would obviously re-invest at least some of it right?
Just looking for your .02 really regarding the future of it.
I don't think it's the right thing to invest into right now. Too much uncertainty right now, that's why I sold mine, it's really really hard to predict what will happen if you buy them right now, while before it sort of followed a general understandable trend. I think it depends how widespread this media attention has been. If there's still an audience that haven't heard this, but will in the future, I think the bitcoin still has a few hundred dollars more to grow in the next month. It's just too risky because either you will make like 20%-30%, or there's a potential for a complete crash again.
I would wait and see what happens, everyone is analyzing what is going on with bit-coins right now, wait until the hype dies down, and in the meantime do research about them. There is no competitive edge right now, there could be in the future. I'd look into other forms of investment if I were you.
Now that I have money I think I will be investing in precious metals, smaller risk and reward, but it's a market that is easier to play. So the precious metals market for me.
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On December 03 2013 04:13 MaestroSC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 04:00 FiWiFaKi wrote:
If you only invest what you can afford to lose, you'll never become rich.
Say there are 3 investments that have an 80% chance of doubling your money, and you have 500,000 in property, and 20,000 in savings. What do you do? Do you invest your 20,000 between the 3 investments, or do you sell your property/take a 500,000 loan and invest 520,000 between the 3 investments? Sure, you might lose everything, but are the probabilities of you making money large enough for you to take the risk? What would you do in this case? I would invest the 520,000 and take my odds.
Anyway, I'm sure most people have heard this before, but:
Everything you do in life comes down to odds, and increasing them. Nothing is ever for certain. You go to McDonald's and you can either by a Big Mac or McChicken... You've never had either, which one do you buy? The one you are more likely going to enjoy more. Even after you buy one of the choices and it tastes delicious, you still don't know whether you'd like it more than the other.
Okay... So that was pretty off-topic I suppose, but what I was trying to get at is this. Invest as much money as you want, do your research, estimate your probabilities, and if the probabilities work for you - take them. so what you are saying... is i should sell my house... take my 315k... and invest it all in bitcoins... and if the price even goes up... $100... then ill have made 31,500,000... why are u making this so tempting...
Your math is wrong. If you buy at $1k, and you invest 315k you have 315 bitcoins. They go up $100, and you sell at $1100, netting you $346.5k, or a profit of $31.5k. 10%. Not bad, but not 31million 
To make 100x your investment, the price of the bitcoin would have to multiply 100 times, so up to 100,000k per bitcoin.
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On December 03 2013 04:33 Chrono000 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 04:24 MaestroSC wrote:
This might just be pointing out the obvious... but Fiwifaki, does this mean you are not interested in the future or Bitcoins? Or do not believe they will be worth more eventually? Because you said you cashed out for your 3/4 of a million.
I mean if you believed in it, you would obviously re-invest at least some of it right?
Just looking for your .02 really regarding the future of it. ? 3/4 million so he had bitcoins and now is arguing the negatives on bitcoin? anyway id like more bitcoin merchents around everywhere, no more fees!!!! no more waste!
You have to be kidding me, Chrono. If you're going to make an investment, you have to look at the positives and negatives. You can't just be like "Oh bitcoins so great, buy them all", you have to look at it from every angle. There are positives, and there are negatives, and there isn't a definite answer whether they will work or not.
And I had bitcoins from the get-go, I didn't exactly invest money in them, so I didn't really have a choice besides wait until the price is right.
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There is truth to this image... The real question is where the bitcoin lies right now, especially with all the media attention it's now getting cause of the crossing the $1000 mark.
![[image loading]](http://www.thereformedbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/bubble-phases.jpg)
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On December 03 2013 04:44 Mysticesper wrote:There is truth to this image... The real question is where the bitcoin lies right now, especially with all the media attention it's now getting cause of the crossing the $1000 mark.
If governments and large corporations are buying bitcoins, there is much less of a reason for the price to drop. Hell, even TL has enough faith in BTC to accept them in the future, therefore the curve may look a lot different this time.
It's too predictable to drop to like $10, everyone has seen the cycle and everyone would buy them for that low of a price. As more time passes, more people realize that BTC is here to stay.
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On December 03 2013 04:44 Mysticesper wrote:There is truth to this image... The real question is where the bitcoin lies right now, especially with all the media attention it's now getting cause of the crossing the $1000 mark.
lol! so many times ive seen this pictures. its not even relevant anymore if it crashes its just gona come back up again. its already done this before a couple of times it called prices discovery.
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EPT
