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On July 06 2017 05:46 xDaunt wrote:
Rational state actors can generally be expected to use nuclear capability as a deterrent. Of course, the rub here is that it's somewhat up in the air as to whether someone who executes people with AA cannons and mortars is a "rational state actor."
It feels like the core "actual" question is whether or not NK is actually crazy. Other rival nuclear powers are basically not a problem because we know they'd never want mutually assured destruction.
And I guess I would imagine our intelligence on NK indicates they are not crazy. Or maybe we know they are crazy, but they simply lacked the capability and may have never developed the capability.
Overall, it really feels like someone shit the bed with NK. I admit I don't know enough history to say, but this got really out of hand. Why were we not Stuxnet'ing NK years ago?
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
NK isn't insane; insane people can't build working ICBMs. Desperate and isolated is more like it.
How successful was Stuxnet in Iran exactly? It's an unenviable result.
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On July 06 2017 06:18 LegalLord wrote:
NK isn't insane; insane people can't build working ICBMs. Desperate and isolated is more like it.
How successful was Stuxnet in Iran exactly? It's an unenviable result.
Did it not bust up some uranium purifiers? Is that not successful? It also feels like it significantly aided negotiations with the Iran deal.
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United States42955 Posts
Iran is a different story. It was never in Iran's interest to actually succeed in making a nuke, Iran isn't isolated from the non proliferation powers, nor obsessed with juche. Iran is perfectly content to exist in a position of theoretical vulnerability to the American superpower while depending upon rational interests and diplomacy to preserve itself. It is now extremely unlikely that the US will attempt regime change and therefore Iran is fine. Meanwhile NK, despite having a cast iron mutual defence treaty with China which has nukes and ICBMs, has an ideological need to never be dependent upon any other nation.
Stuxnet was a cool trick but I don't think Iran was ever in any real hurry. Completing their nuclear project meant losing their bargaining chips and forcing Russia and China back into the sanction camp. Whereas slowly progressing on a nuclear project gives Russia and China the option to tell the US to knock off all the bullshit rhetoric and calm the fuck down in exchange for the project being abandoned.
The entire Iran nuclear program was utterly pointless from the start. It existed only because of the spectre of regime change that was never going to happen.
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I don't see anything irrational as executing people with mortars and AA cannons. It wasn't so long ago that in USA they executed people with injections and electric chairs all out on public display or in WW2 executed "cowards" and "spies" with guns. It's a definate dramatic flair. Display of personal power with personal command of armed forces. If I was a dictator, if I needed to make an example of that stupid uncle who keeps falling asleep in my meetings, I think I'd like to go for for a tank shot or naval bombardment or precision airstrike.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On July 06 2017 06:32 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2017 06:18 LegalLord wrote:
NK isn't insane; insane people can't build working ICBMs. Desperate and isolated is more like it.
How successful was Stuxnet in Iran exactly? It's an unenviable result. Did it not bust up some uranium purifiers? Is that not successful? It also feels like it significantly aided negotiations with the Iran deal.
Goal: to sink the Iran nuclear program with an attack that won't get caught.
Reality: everyone figured out who did it, Iran lost a few centrifuges but managed to resolve the issue before losing too many, hackers got their hands on some particularly nice US intelligence goodies to use as they please for hacking others.
Not much of a success in my book.
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It did rather more damage than that, even if Iran won't say so publicly.
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Lots of though talk from trump about NK but he can,t do anything,even the cariers are back home again I think?.
The longer he waits the more difficult and risky it will become and all what is happening now is going nowhere.
Maybe its best to leave the whole situation and let china deal with it one way or the other. Give up the dream of one united korea under American influence,it wont happen.
Make china responsible for everything NK does,maybe put trade sanctions on china as well. The usa does not have that much to lose in a trade war with china,at least less then the Chinese has to lose I think?
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On July 06 2017 23:23 pmh wrote:
Lots of though talk from trump about NK but he can,t do anything,even the cariers are back home again I think?.
The longer he waits the more difficult and risky it will become and all what is happening now is going nowhere.
Maybe its best to leave the whole situation and let china deal with it one way or the other. Give up the dream of one united korea under American influence,it wont happen.
Make china responsible for everything NK does,maybe put trade sanctions on china as well. The usa does not have that much to lose in a trade war with china,at least less then the Chinese has to lose I think?
Isn't basically anything electronic at least partially made in China? And shitloads of other things too? I am pretty sure you don't want a trade ware with a nation that makes half the shit in your stores.
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United States42955 Posts
Trump and Bannon would quite like those jobs that were deemed not worth it for Americans to come back. Even though they left because the Chinese were willing to pay us $20/hr to do the stuff we currently do which meant it didn't make sense to do it ourselves to save $1/hr when we could switch jobs with them and just bank the $19/hr difference.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Little known fact. In addition to ICBMs, NK has been testing new anti-ship missiles. At about the time the carriers were leaving.
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https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/other/should-us-companies-doing-business-in-china-be-worried/vi-BBDOqJQ
They should be i think. Off course a trade war with china is not in favor of corporate america,nor in favor of mainstreet america and it could easily trigger a new and long recession but i dont see any other options left besides taking it to china. Its their backyard,they are responsible.
They could start poking a bit,nothing to extreme,and see how china reacts.
Its either this or simply give up on the situation completely and accept the status quo and its future developments.
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Well, I seriously think we'll be bombing North Korea by the end of the month
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United States24701 Posts
Why do you think that? It's pretty pointless to just throw out the idea that it will happen.
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Because trump is unhinged and Mattis don't play fuck around.
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United States42955 Posts
On August 10 2017 09:11 plasmidghost wrote:
Well, I seriously think we'll be bombing North Korea by the end of the month
I'll give you 10:1 on that.
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How did the last political bet work out for you KwarK?
Personally, I am more concerned about the military actions the US might undertake than the military actions of NK. I don't know if it's going to be this very month, but you hear really scary shit coming out of the US regarding "we have to stop them", while NK is all about retaliation against any potential aggression.
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On August 10 2017 09:39 a_flayer wrote:
How did the last political bet work out for you KwarK?
Personally, I am more concerned about the military actions the US might undertake than the military actions of NK. I don't know if it's going to be this very month, but you hear really scary shit coming out of the US regarding "we have to stop them", while NK is all about retaliation against any potential aggression.
And launching things over Japan and the ocean. And it wasn't that long ago they shelled a South Korean island for no reason. And sunk a South Korean ship with a sub for no reason. Normal stuff.
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NK isn't about to invade SK, though. Small events like that are fairly common with two nations hostile to one another and pretty much harmless on the larger scale. It's like Israel bombing shit in Syria - nothing significant comes of it except more posturing (the loss of innocent lives is of course horrifying). The things that I'm worried the US might be inclined to do would be on a completely different level. They've shown in the recent past that they have no problem invading a country for no reason and through that ruining a generation of people and creating untold instability in a region.
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EPT
