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On August 21 2015 02:53 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 02:21 Nixer wrote:
I'm also fairly certain that most artillery pieces that NK have in use don't even reach Seoul from the DMZ, those that do like one rocket launcher type and a heavier caliber self-propelled artillery gun can't cause much damage because of limited amounts and questionable condition. You also have to keep in mind the possibility to intercept ballistic missiles, however I'm not sure of those capabilities on the southern peninsula or the seas nearby. Seoul is absolutely in range of conventional artillery. There are also cities in South Korea other than Seoul. No one argues that the whole affair wouldn't be terribly one sided, however the casualties would be still be incredible, from a modern, first world perspective. Of course, the real question is, why on earth would the South want to kill their (figurative, and literal) brothers and sisters?
They were fine with it awhile back, why not try again while having a competitive advantage?
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United States43803 Posts
On August 21 2015 02:13 whatisthisasheep wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 02:04 KwarK wrote:On August 21 2015 01:44 whatisthisasheep wrote:On August 21 2015 01:37 Plansix wrote:On August 21 2015 01:34 whatisthisasheep wrote:On August 21 2015 01:30 KwarK wrote:On August 21 2015 01:24 whatisthisasheep wrote:
Cant South Korea say that North Korea's action was a declaration of war and go wipe the North out? It would save everybody alot of hassle. All of NK weapons are super old so they wouldnt put up much of a fight. Casus belli has never been the issue. It's all the artillery aimed at Seoul (and now the fact that NK has nukes) that are the issue. But if you think NK would be a pushover you're welcome to take them on yourself. Does anybody know if all that half a century old artillery north korea still works or if they even still have ammo for it? I don't think SK is willing to find out. And once again, they have nukes in some form. And China, who back NK in the first Korean War. There is no "wiping them out". Then couldnt SK just surround Nk with ships and airplanes and wait for NK to stare themselves out because they can get a rations until they surrender? Not a shot would need to be fired. Have Donald Trump dig a moat between NK and China. Also NK have artillery manufacturing technology. And ammo manufacturing technology. Also they have farming technology. But yeah, the waiting for the situation to resolve itself part of your plan, that's a good idea. You should tell SK. SK should go to the UN and tell China to knock it off with NK or they will sanction the hell out of them. Either that or have SK and NK fight for another thousand years.
I don't think you have a working understanding of how the UN works or what it is for. The UN exists to maintain the balance of power between the postwar superpowers who have permanent security council seats and a veto. The way it works is that nobody can act against their interests but they must expend political capital to maintain their interests. The UN could no more act against China than it could sanction the United States. It's been built to be toothless when it comes to the major powers, it's a feature, not a flaw.
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2774 Posts
On August 21 2015 02:53 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 02:21 Nixer wrote:
I'm also fairly certain that most artillery pieces that NK have in use don't even reach Seoul from the DMZ, those that do like one rocket launcher type and a heavier caliber self-propelled artillery gun can't cause much damage because of limited amounts and questionable condition. You also have to keep in mind the possibility to intercept ballistic missiles, however I'm not sure of those capabilities on the southern peninsula or the seas nearby. Seoul is absolutely in range of conventional artillery. There are also cities in South Korea other than Seoul. No one argues that the whole affair wouldn't be terribly one sided, however the casualties would be still be incredible, from a modern, first world perspective. Of course, the real question is, why on earth would the South want to kill their (figurative, and literal) brothers and sisters?
Distance from the DMZ to Seoul should be around 45km (?). Their howitzers probably have a maximum effective range of ~15km apart from the Koksan howitzer which actually have an impressive maximum range of 60km(!), no other pieces than the M1985 rocket launcher which has a reported range of like 45km can hit Seoul. These account for less than 1000 units, probably closer to 500. If all of these fire off towards Seoul (realistically not possible in a conventional war if ever) they'll shell around 2500 warheads in a perfect scenario. Worst case scenario simulations would give you around 50k casualties in a day (essentially not possible, this is like people standing in the open all the time). Sure that's a lot, too much in the modern times. This in a worst case scenario, again far from realistic.
In no way would NK be able to get even close to totaling the city, like some seem to assume.
I guess I didn't take dirty bombs, infiltrators and the like into account so fair enough.
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The biggest problem is the 20 million North Korean zombies. Even the Chinese, with a population of 1.3 billion+, don't want them moving into their country. China is not exactly equipped to handle immigration on the scale, even with that influx only representing 1.5% of the population. No way South Korea is able to handle that many zombie immigrants without a huge catastrophe occuring.
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I believe that the two countries that still have workable diplomatic relations with NK are Russia and China. Neither of them think of NK as an ally - they just have their own geopolitical interests in mind, and China especially would rather not see NK destabilized. Though I do recall a few years back that some Chinese leaders were proposing a means by which NK/SK would be merged together, dating to about the time of NK's artillery strike on some islands.
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its the political system too.
my guess is that chinese leaders saw north korea sharing similar ideas and that it would be beneficial if the communist NK stayed the way it is.
Today, even china is putting some distance to the north korean government.
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On August 21 2015 04:45 andrewlt wrote:
The biggest problem is the 20 million North Korean zombies. Even the Chinese, with a population of 1.3 billion+, don't want them moving into their country. China is not exactly equipped to handle immigration on the scale, even with that influx only representing 1.5% of the population. No way South Korea is able to handle that many zombie immigrants without a huge catastrophe occuring.
You really, really shouldn't think of North Koreans as "zombies". They live, through no fault of their own, in pretty much the shittiest place you can live in. And if they dissent in any way (like for example escaping), not only do they get sent into a torture KZ, but also anyone who is related to them. That tends to make dissent a pretty harsh decision to take, and i am pretty sure almost everyone on this forum would rather try to somehow make due and stay inconspicuous under those circumstances.
It would be a very good idea to remember that most people in NK are exactly that, people. In a really, really bad situation that you should not wish upon your worst enemy. Imagine anything the absolute worst thing you can imagine, and something worse almost certainly happens in North Korea daily. Most North Koreans probably know that the propaganda they are fed is completely bullshit.
The fact that North Korea exists in the state it currently is in is a complete failure of the human race as a whole. Thinking of the North Korean people as zombies is similarly disrespectful as thinking of Nazi KZ inhabitants as zombies.
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Zurich15365 Posts
On August 21 2015 03:53 Nixer wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 02:53 zatic wrote:On August 21 2015 02:21 Nixer wrote:
I'm also fairly certain that most artillery pieces that NK have in use don't even reach Seoul from the DMZ, those that do like one rocket launcher type and a heavier caliber self-propelled artillery gun can't cause much damage because of limited amounts and questionable condition. You also have to keep in mind the possibility to intercept ballistic missiles, however I'm not sure of those capabilities on the southern peninsula or the seas nearby. Seoul is absolutely in range of conventional artillery. There are also cities in South Korea other than Seoul. No one argues that the whole affair wouldn't be terribly one sided, however the casualties would be still be incredible, from a modern, first world perspective. Of course, the real question is, why on earth would the South want to kill their (figurative, and literal) brothers and sisters? Distance from the DMZ to Seoul should be around 45km (?). Their howitzers probably have a maximum effective range of ~15km apart from the Koksan howitzer which actually have an impressive maximum range of 60km(!), no other pieces than the M1985 rocket launcher which has a reported range of like 45km can hit Seoul. These account for less than 1000 units, probably closer to 500. If all of these fire off towards Seoul (realistically not possible in a conventional war if ever) they'll shell around 2500 warheads in a perfect scenario. Worst case scenario simulations would give you around 50k casualties in a day (essentially not possible, this is like people standing in the open all the time). Sure that's a lot, too much in the modern times. This in a worst case scenario, again far from realistich.
Personally I think even a worst case scenario would be closer to 20k total civilian casualties than 50k, probably even less. But that is still a ridiculous number of civilian (!) casualties for an industrialized nation, something not seen since WW2.
But, like I said earlier, this is pure fantasy war gaming since neither the North nor the South has any interest or inclination towards open war.
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So, do we know of any agreements that are coming up for negotiation or some multi-country meeting about to happen? NK normally does this around those events. G7 isn't until next year. G20 meeting is at the end of November.
I guess it means that the Harvest Data is in for most of the year in NK and they're not going to have enough food to make it through. So this is probably starting the bribing cycle that they put everyone else through.
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North Korea must need aid again.
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North Korea is like that one guy who takes of its shirt in a fit of anger. Put your shirt back on bro.
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North Korea truly is an angry baby who cries and cries and throws a tantrum and breaks some toys because they didn't get fed. In this case it's an immature teenager who never grew up or learned to feed himself properly without his "friends" spooning it directly to them from their own lunches.
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And the "friends" part is becoming less and less a reality as China is starting to get fed up with them.
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StealthBlue is right. They probably need food aid to prevent a famine.
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The scary thing is Dennis Rodman could probly get NK to back off. He knows them better than any world leader.
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On August 21 2015 16:17 whatisthisasheep wrote:
The scary thing is Dennis Rodman could probly get NK to back off. He knows them better than any world leader.
As someone who has a relative who was once the ambassador to South Korea and unofficially to North Korea, I can guarantee you that such a statement is outright naive about the political nature of North Korea
What is truly depressing about this thread is that North Korea does something and suddenly everyone is an expert on North Korea.
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Zurich15365 Posts
On August 21 2015 16:28 Shiragaku wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 16:17 whatisthisasheep wrote:
The scary thing is Dennis Rodman could probly get NK to back off. He knows them better than any world leader. What is truly depressing about this thread is that North Korea does something and suddenly everyone is an expert on North Korea.
This isn't really any different from any possible topic though isn't it? 
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The general consent from the China public is that if north Korea get involved in war, China must help them.
It is still a buffer zone for China and until China can have bigger influence on Asia, they won't let north Korea to go down. Of south Korea wins and it will put even more ideological pressure onto China (surrounded by pro western country)
Of cause it might be an old model but I believe when the government is trying to convey this image, it is safe to assume this is what they think as well.
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On August 21 2015 16:46 ETisME wrote:
The general consent from the China public is that if north Korea get involved in war, China must help them.
It is still a buffer zone for China and until China can have bigger influence on Asia, they won't let north Korea to go down. Of south Korea wins and it will put even more ideological pressure onto China (surrounded by pro western country)
Of cause it might be an old model but I believe when the government is trying to convey this image, it is safe to assume this is what they think as well.
That's not what my understanding of the Chinese people's belief. It seems that in the case of a war, China would probably order the army in to take over instead of help...
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EPT
