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On November 03 2012 18:42 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2012 18:40 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On November 03 2012 18:19 Defacer wrote:On November 03 2012 17:43 Darknat wrote: I've said this before on a forum: If Obama is reelected I will have lost faith in the average American voter. Anyone who's look at Romney's great record and looked at Obama's abysmal record will vote for Romney. Anyone who's looked at Romney's campaign the last four years (yes, he has been angling for this job for four fucking years now) and compared it to Obama's campaign the past year and a half would vote for Obama in a heart beat. You'd have to be a willful idiot to vote for Romney. He's ran the most insincere, pandering, cynical and opaque campaign that I've ever witnessed. Kerry's campaign was pretty bad too. MA politics turns decent candidates into cynical bastards... apparently... Hopefully Deval Patrick rises above that in '16. Moderate Romney could have won this year. Flip-Flopping Romney or Severe Conservative 47% Romney ... no dice.
Moderate Romney would have lost to Santorum in a primaries (probably).
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On November 03 2012 05:38 BluePanther wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2012 04:54 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 03 2012 04:15 BluePanther wrote:On November 03 2012 04:12 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 03 2012 04:04 BluePanther wrote:On November 03 2012 03:20 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 03 2012 01:41 BluePanther wrote:On November 03 2012 01:16 KlinKz wrote: No offence to America, but I seriously cannot wait till Romney gets elected and the US understands the extreme right polices he will make. Good luck with having no abortions (or not, flip flop idk) , the voucher system, and money going into military that the military doesn't need and hasn't ask for and appointing new supreme justices that will likely favour the far right. Coming from Canada and watching Fox News for only 10 mins and I got sick of it "who can take this news network seriously or O'Reilly fellow seriously?" is the questions I must ask.
When I hear america I see a land where everyone wants to go but if Romney comes into office then I will not understand why people would want to go to America any more. I wish their was a federal policy on television advertisements (i guess that could be restricting the first amendment) on fining those who create false advertisements or create an advertisement that has been manipulated so much that the truth is obscured. First of all, America isn't going to "go to shit" if Romney gets elected. Stop being dumb. He can't change Roe v. Wade if he wanted to. The voucher plan is not stupid and runs like many other programs in our federal system. The military money is a drop in the bucket. Fox news is a conservative propaganda machine. Everyone knows this. It's not some super duper secret weapon of the right. And Obama's ads are just as bad when it comes to lying. But I thought it isn't a voucher plan? No? And how exactly is voucherizing Medicare suppose to be good for people? It's just shifting the cost of healthcare from the government to people. And if you can't afford it beyond what the voucher covers (which doesn't keep up with inflation), then you're screwed. It's a well-known fact, proved by every other advanced country that government doing healthcare significantly reduces costs and with better results. And somehow doing the opposite, using a voucher scheme, to shift costs to private citizens is meant to make things better? The idea that privatizing healthcare will fix everything by the magic of the free market is a fantasy. Economic theory says that in order for a free market to be efficient, a number of assumptions must hold, for example transactions must be voluntary, market participants must have perfect information, all costs are internalized, etc. None of these assumptions hold for the healthcare market. For example, if you almost die in a serious car crash, you don't have a voluntary choice to go to hospital, you go or you die. There are information asymmetries, for example, as a patient, you don't have perfect information about what treatments you should get, or insurance companies know less about your health than you do, so adverse selection prevents them taking people with preexisting conditions, unless the government steps in. Costs are not internalized, if you're in that car crash and can't afford to pay the hospital, than the taxpayers ultimately pick up the bill. So, yes, vouchercare moves healthcare closer to the free market, which is a stupid thing to do, based not only on theory but also the evidence from the rest of the world. And Obama's ads are nowhere near as bad when it comes to lying. I love it when people drop the "it's a well known fact" when it clearly is debatable. And then it gets followed up by the "PREACH IT BROTHA!" cheerleader. No it's not debatable, healthcare is cheaper and more efficient when it's run by government, as shown by every other advanced country on Earth. Here are some graphs and a study, which I posted back here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=330491¤tpage=477#9533![[image loading]](http://www.medicareforall.org/images/spending_among_30_countries.jpg) Source: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/07/09/business/econgraphic3.jpg![[image loading]](http://i.huffpost.com/gen/177876/HEALTH-RANKINGS.jpg) Source: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Publications/Fund-Reports/2010/Jun/Mirror-Mirror-Update.aspx correlation != causation Is that the best objection to the graphs that you've got? Put it this way, if it's not causation, why is there such a strong correlation? There's plenty of reasons why universal healthcare would cause a reduction in costs, for example, the government has greater bargaining power to drive down costs, administrative costs are reduced as people just bill the government instead of having everyone go through an insurance middleman, everyone gets covered so people are more likely to get preventive care, there's much less incentive for rent seeking from insurance companies and corporations, etc. This isn't some utopian fantasy which we don't know much about. Universal healthcare is in every advanced country except the US. The lack of government management is not the only thing unique to our system. Our legal system handles medical malpractice much differently, and is a big part of the waste in our system. So you've basically ignored all of the evidence that I've shown with a "correlation != causation" argument, ignored the reasons why healthcare systems in other countries are cheaper, and without citing any evidence suggested that the major reason why healthcare is so much more expensive in the US is because of medical malpractice.
While I agree that medical malpractice has the potential to drive healthcare up, after looking around I'm not convince that this has a substantial effect. Consider the following study from NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10709
It "find[s] that increases in malpractice payments made on behalf of physicians do not seem to be the driving force behind increases in premiums."
So what is driving US healthcare costs then. Well, this study from McKinsey looks at the cost of the US compared to other OECD countries: http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/MGI/Research/Americas/Accounting_for_the_Cost_of_Health_Care_in_the_United_States
Exhibit 2 breaks down the spending above expected levels compared to other countries. The report basically says that the higher cost is due to paying medical practitioners more and higher administrative costs. It also says the following:
[About "ESAW", the report says "Estimated Spending According to Wealth (ESAW). This measure adjusts health care spending according to GDP per capita and is anchored in the fact that countries spend more on health care (or any good or service) as their prosperity increases."]
AN INTRINSICALLY MORE EXPENSIVE SYSTEM
Our analysis shows that across five of the seven health care categories used by the OECD—hospital care, outpatient care, drugs, administration and insurance, and public investment in health—the United States spends above its ESAW. In only two categories—long-term care and durable medical equipment—does it spend below the ESAW (Exhibit 2).
Of the $477 billion that the United States spends above ESAW, we calculate that $224 billion are found in hospital care and $178 billion in outpatient care. Together, these account for more than 80 percent of US spending above the level its ESAW would predict. Further analysis allows us to map, in hospital and outpatient care, $147 billion of the additional costs to operational expenses and support functions, $100 billion in medical labor, $75 billion in the profits made and taxes paid by private payors and providers, and $49 billion in supplies (Exhibit 3).
Within the other categories in which the United States spends above ESAW, together amounting to $174 billion, $98 billion is incurred in administration and insurance, $57 billion in outpatient drugs, and $19 billion in public investment. In long-term and home care the United States spent $85 billion less than ESAW, and in therapeutic and durable medical equipment, $14 billion less than ESAW. This report examines in detail the level of spending in each category.
ACCOUNTING FOR THE HIGHER SPENDING We analyzed the three main components of the US health care system: the inputs consumed (both the volumes and unit costs), the operational processes that are in place, and the intermediation processes. This approach yields a clear picture of the sources of higher spend. Input costs—including doctors’ and nurses’
salaries, drugs, devices, and other medical supplies, and the profits of private participants in the system—explain the largest portion of high additional spending, accounting for $281 billion of spending above US ESAW. Inefficiencies and complexity in the system’s operational processes and structure account for the second largest spend above ESAW of $147 billion. Finally, administration, regulation, and intermediation of the system cost another $98 billion in additional spending. Together, these three account for $526 billion of US spending above ESAW. Other miscellaneous expenditures in outpatient care (including durable medical equipment), as well as in public investment, account for $36 billion. If we then include the spending below ESAW in long-term care, we reach our net figure of $477 billion spending above ESAW (Exhibit 4).
[...]
ADMINISTRATION The United States spent $412 per capita on health care administration and insurance in 2003—nearly six times as much as the OECD average. This is because of its unique multiple-payor system, differences in insurance regulation across states, and the complexities of administering Medicare, Medicaid, and private-insurance products. This total does not include the additional administrative burden of the multi-payor structure and insurance products on hospitals and outpatient centers, which is accounted for under providers’ operational costs. Nor does it include the extra costs incurred by employers because of the need for robust human resources departments to administer health care benefits. So basically, this is much more in line with what I've been saying. Administration costs are way up because there's so much middleman, which can be mostly eliminated in a government system. Government's bargaining power can lower money paid to doctors. And remember that $700 billion that Romney claims is being cut from Medicare to pay for Obamacare? We've already said this when it was a popular talking point, but that isn't cuts to benefits, that's $700 billion in cuts to already bloated payments to medical providers, which this reports says is the number one reason why healthcare is so expensive in the US.
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Have not found one objective news site for the usa elections unfortunatly. Cnn international is pretty decent and my main source, they always have both a republican as well as a democrat present when discussing political isues,but they still leaning slightly towards supporting obama, i get the impression.
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On November 03 2012 21:48 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2012 21:24 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 03 2012 18:56 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On November 03 2012 18:42 Defacer wrote:On November 03 2012 18:40 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On November 03 2012 18:19 Defacer wrote:On November 03 2012 17:43 Darknat wrote: I've said this before on a forum: If Obama is reelected I will have lost faith in the average American voter. Anyone who's look at Romney's great record and looked at Obama's abysmal record will vote for Romney. Anyone who's looked at Romney's campaign the last four years (yes, he has been angling for this job for four fucking years now) and compared it to Obama's campaign the past year and a half would vote for Obama in a heart beat. You'd have to be a willful idiot to vote for Romney. He's ran the most insincere, pandering, cynical and opaque campaign that I've ever witnessed. Kerry's campaign was pretty bad too. MA politics turns decent candidates into cynical bastards... apparently... Hopefully Deval Patrick rises above that in '16. Moderate Romney could have won this year. Flip-Flopping Romney or Severe Conservative 47% Romney ... no dice. Nail on head. + Show Spoiler +Edit 2: zomagoo! sry for lage file size! Well, the reason why Romney went from moderate to severe conservative back to mostly moderate (although no one can really tell) is because he had to go very right-wing in order to win the Republican primary. And the reason for that is because Republicans have shifted so far to the right. They reject ever increasing taxes, even a deal with 10 to 1 spending cuts to tax hikes, they filibustered everything including routine political appointees. The point is, you might have wanted a more moderate Romney, but the reason he isn't is because the Republicans have become a far right party. For that, they don't deserve to get elected. Sorta. Yes, if he had played the moderate card similar to how McCain did it, he wouldn't have a chance right now. His base would abandon him, the Tea Party wouldn't be a huge campaigning base (would begrudgingly cast a vote against Obama, less active campaigning), and the blogosphere would whine even as the beltway Republicans would rejoice. If only we could work out a deal with a majority of spending cuts and a minority of tax increases (and whatever loophole closures you can find congressional support for). Let me tell you why conservatives are all sour on it. We see time and time again the compromise being 0% of what we want and 50% of what they wanted. Period. They'll free some budget increases, call it a spending cut, and the moderates go home with smiles on their face. Spending continues to increase while most everybody on Capitol Hill feels pretty good about themselves. Spending got us into this mess and the only thing that will eventually check it is the threat of default in spending more than what we take in. Give Washington another million in revenue and they'll spend another billion. Try to understand that it isn't a buncha dumb conservatives pushing the party to the far right in a stupid crusade. The goal is a drastically reduced size of government, both in its purvey and in its bulk spending. Spending bandaids with punitive taxation is not part of the agenda, and is seen as a step backward. Caving on a firm line on tax increases (Read My Lips: No New Taxes got one recent Republican in the White House, but see how long that lasted) invites repeated tax and spend in American politics. Call it a pipe dream or bad policy, but understand the perspective of the other side, the purportedly far right, which might've been centrists in the days of Kennedy and Nixon. Yank the center left, label your ideological opponents the "far right," and see how many will fall in line. -- Obama clings to slight leads in battleground states that he needs to win. He has a better chance at victory statistically right now. But it's still anyone's ballgame, no handful of swing states hold a comfortable lead for him to count on. Plenty of hope still left. Are you even paying attention? 0% of what you want? $0 in tax increase is 0% of what you want? Really?
And what do you mean by "Spending got us into this mess?" What mess? The GFC? Or the budget deficits? And who turned a surplus into a deficit again? The fact is, when they're in power, Republicans don't care about spending.
If you're so concerned about the budget deficit, then you should love the fiscal cliff. Massive cuts to spending, which will significantly reduce the budget deficit. That's a good thing, right? Reducing the deficit is good, isn't it?
There is no short run budget mess. None. Interest rates on 10 year government bonds are at historic lows, basically negative real rates. And Republicans threatened to make the US default over this totally not urgent problem. This sort of terrorist tactic is absolutely repugnant. There is a long run budget problem that should be dealt with in a balanced approach, with cuts and tax increase to take affect some time after the economy has recovered. But rewarding what Krugman calls "protection-racket politics" would make Republicans even more brazen. It would make them more likely to take the US economy hostage again, which significantly increases market uncertainty (which the right loves to blame for the slow recovery).
But more importantly, it's about what's good for the economy, and spending cuts are not good for the economy in the short run and tax cuts, which end up mostly benefiting the rich are terribly bad for the economy in the long run. Republicans are bad for the economy.
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On November 03 2012 18:14 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2012 17:43 Darknat wrote: I've said this before on a forum: If Obama is reelected I will have lost faith in the average American voter. Anyone who's look at Romney's great record and looked at Obama's abysmal record will vote for Romney. Romney = mediocre. Obama = left wing nut (going off of senator voting record here) who stood up to the challenge as best a nut could. Whatever, the best of us survive no matter what. I don't see how you can call Obama a "left wing nut", given what he's done in office. His 1st term is a better indication of what a 2nd term would look like than his senate voting record.
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Today I put $1000 on this election. Anyone else gambling?
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On November 03 2012 19:39 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2012 19:11 kmillz wrote:On November 03 2012 18:56 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On November 03 2012 18:42 Defacer wrote:On November 03 2012 18:40 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On November 03 2012 18:19 Defacer wrote:On November 03 2012 17:43 Darknat wrote: I've said this before on a forum: If Obama is reelected I will have lost faith in the average American voter. Anyone who's look at Romney's great record and looked at Obama's abysmal record will vote for Romney. Anyone who's looked at Romney's campaign the last four years (yes, he has been angling for this job for four fucking years now) and compared it to Obama's campaign the past year and a half would vote for Obama in a heart beat. You'd have to be a willful idiot to vote for Romney. He's ran the most insincere, pandering, cynical and opaque campaign that I've ever witnessed. Kerry's campaign was pretty bad too. MA politics turns decent candidates into cynical bastards... apparently... Hopefully Deval Patrick rises above that in '16. Moderate Romney could have won this year. Flip-Flopping Romney or Severe Conservative 47% Romney ... no dice. Nail on head. ![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ksrIL8XiVM0/T7xhp6WIKEI/AAAAAAAAADY/9nbWiv6QtdQ/s1600/hammer.jpg) Edit 2: zomagoo! sry for lage file size! So you think its over? Obama wins? I am leaning towards 70% Obama wins, but I'm not throwing in the towel quite yet.. Ppppfff........ its easy to assume a liberal wins when you live in a land of liberals.
Prediction markets are disturbingly accurate, and they're showing at least a 65% chance of an Obama win.
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Intrade seems like the best place to put your money, bookmakers' odds are 75%+ for Obama.
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I need to go dig up that post where I predicted about two years ago Romney winning primary and Obama winning election so that I can say "told you so." But I guess I won't count chickens before they hatch.
Regarding CNN, the funny thing about that is they used to be the most biased news source there was. Then Fox came out, and MSNBC decided they wanted a partisan war with Fox, and now CNN are actually the least biased news source in the bunch.
By the way, I feel like this thread has a lot less vitriol and condescension in it. It's almost like... someone's missing.
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On November 04 2012 01:34 jdseemoreglass wrote: I need to go dig up that post where I predicted about two years ago Romney winning primary and Obama winning election so that I can say "told you so." But I guess I won't count chickens before they hatch.
Regarding CNN, the funny thing about that is they used to be the most biased news source there was. Then Fox came out, and MSNBC decided they wanted a partisan war with Fox, and now CNN are actually the least biased news source in the bunch. Why do people get their news on TV?
Internet is way better. There are blogs and articles by academics and people in public office. Informed and important people write on the internet. You can get left-wing or right-wing commentators. There are fact checkers. You can see the evidence, link to sources, etc.
It's just generally far more information and far more informed.
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On November 03 2012 22:43 paralleluniverse wrote: Today I put $1000 on this election. Anyone else gambling? €50 on Romney, forum Obama the quote was 1:30 or something which is way too low imo.
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I want a vial of xDaunt's tears on the 7th.
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On November 04 2012 01:52 mynameisgreat11 wrote: I want a vial of xDaunt's tears on the 7th.
I am generally a big fan of xdaunt, even as a liberal, but he has time and time again predicted a HUGE blowout for Romney which would more than surprise me at this point. I am really interested in what he will be posing on election night.
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On November 04 2012 01:56 Velocirapture wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2012 01:52 mynameisgreat11 wrote: I want a vial of xDaunt's tears on the 7th. I am generally a big fan of xdaunt, even as a liberal, but he has time and time again predicted a HUGE blowout for Romney which would more than surprise me at this point. I am really interested in what he will be posing on election night. My feelings towards xDaunt fluctuate depending on what he posts. Sometimes, I feel that he is quite reasonable and possibly even agreeable. But sometimes what he writes really really annoys me. And on some rare occasions it even pisses me off. Particularly when he's being hypocritical or way too cocky.
It would be interesting to see how he spins a Romney loss. Romney still has a 20% chance according to Nate Silver, and as I've said, while 80% is a lot better than 20%, 20% chance events happen all the time.
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On November 04 2012 01:52 mynameisgreat11 wrote: I want a vial of xDaunt's tears on the 7th.
I think you'll get a lot of reason's why Romney lost and how the system is "broken." Virtual tears, at least.
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On November 04 2012 02:04 HardlyNever wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2012 01:52 mynameisgreat11 wrote: I want a vial of xDaunt's tears on the 7th. I think you'll get a lot of reason's why Romney lost and how the system is "broken." Virtual tears, at least.
Well I asked him if he was going to do that and he said he wouldn't. That would ruin the fun.
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