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Puzzleing Question! (HARD) - Page 33

Forum Index > General Forum
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KarlSberg~
Profile Blog Joined September 2003
731 Posts
Last Edited: 2004-11-21 21:33:40
November 21 2004 21:28 GMT
#641
I don't understand what point you want me to answer.
Unless you mean:

same with coin flips. anyone who knows anything about probability knows that the longer you flip a coin for, the closer to 50/50 layout of heads/tails you will come. everyone can agree with this. it is mathematically impossible to flip a coin 1,000,000,000,000 times and have more than 60% of either heads or tails. do u see the connection between this and the boy/girl problem?


In which case, yes I do see the connection, but you need to go a step further to answer your own problem. Counting the options is simple and easy, I wrote all of them so the result is obvious if you bother to count up to 4.
There are 01 kind of people who know binary. Those who understand little endian and those who don t.
Famouzze
Profile Joined June 2004
971 Posts
November 21 2004 21:31 GMT
#642
On November 22 2004 06:28 KarlSberg~ wrote:
I don't understand what point you want me to answer.


just what i wrote...

"lets say instead of 2 children the woman is Mother Earth and she has 8,000,000,000 children. the people who think its 50% and not 2/3 are arguing that even over such a long sample size as the entire planet, there is no tendency towards a 50/50 layout of boys/girls. then how do u explain that this is what happened on the planet earth? the larger the sample size, the less likely it is to be all one gender.

same with coin flips. anyone who knows anything about probability knows that the longer you flip a coin for, the closer to 50/50 layout of heads/tails you will come. everyone can agree with this. it is mathematically impossible to flip a coin 1,000,000,000,000 times and have more than 60% of either heads or tails. do u see the connection between this and the boy/girl problem?"
MoltkeWarding
Profile Joined November 2003
5195 Posts
November 21 2004 21:31 GMT
#643
On November 22 2004 06:25 Famouzze wrote:
hey karlsberg i got an idea: read my post and respond to it? one thing i noticed this whole thread is the stubborn 50/50 people will only debate by ignoring what the 2/3 people say and then laying down their own train of thjought that the 2/3 people will then respond to. if u really want to discuss it and validate ur opinion i challenge you to really read what i wrote and write a response to it.

if u dont want to thats fine but u should also admit that u are just clinging to ur answer out of stubborn refusal to admit u might be wrong .


No, you have no argument. The 2/3 answer only works if you eliminate 1/4 of the possible options, whereas you do not.

Where x = all possible scenarios under given facts
y = impossible scenarios under x

You will surely agree that scenarios not eliminated = x-y

x = 1- (0.5*0.5) i.e. "The is at least one girl" has 75% chance of occuring
y = 0.5*0.5 i.e. "There are two boys" is impossible.

Ergo x-y = 0.5

Sorry :/
Famouzze
Profile Joined June 2004
971 Posts
November 21 2004 21:32 GMT
#644
again, read what i wrote and reply to it if u really want to reconsider ur opinion. most ppl would rther stick to their first impulse to the bitter end and i can understand that. but the fact is im the one who posted this riddle, and im the one who knows the answer. if u dont want to reconsider thats fine, if u do then read what i wrote and reply to it O_O;
MoltkeWarding
Profile Joined November 2003
5195 Posts
November 21 2004 21:33 GMT
#645
On November 22 2004 06:31 Famouzze wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2004 06:28 KarlSberg~ wrote:
I don't understand what point you want me to answer.


just what i wrote...

"lets say instead of 2 children the woman is Mother Earth and she has 8,000,000,000 children. the people who think its 50% and not 2/3 are arguing that even over such a long sample size as the entire planet, there is no tendency towards a 50/50 layout of boys/girls. then how do u explain that this is what happened on the planet earth? the larger the sample size, the less likely it is to be all one gender.

same with coin flips. anyone who knows anything about probability knows that the longer you flip a coin for, the closer to 50/50 layout of heads/tails you will come. everyone can agree with this. it is mathematically impossible to flip a coin 1,000,000,000,000 times and have more than 60% of either heads or tails. do u see the connection between this and the boy/girl problem?"


That's completely untrue. You have already flipped coins and therefore those do not count in any future ratios. According to your logic
I flip coins 9 times, they all come up tails
When I flip the 10th coin, it has a 90% chance of going heads.

Try this yourself. It never works.
MoltkeWarding
Profile Joined November 2003
5195 Posts
November 21 2004 21:34 GMT
#646
On November 22 2004 06:32 Famouzze wrote:
again, read what i wrote and reply to it if u really want to reconsider ur opinion. most ppl would rther stick to their first impulse to the bitter end and i can understand that. but the fact is im the one who posted this riddle, and im the one who knows the answer. if u dont want to reconsider thats fine, if u do then read what i wrote and reply to it O_O;

I'm sick of people elevating their opinion to untouchable status while neither being able to disprove those who think the contrary nor prove their own opinion. I've read your answer 40 times in this thread and its still wrong.
Famouzze
Profile Joined June 2004
971 Posts
November 21 2004 21:38 GMT
#647
On November 22 2004 06:34 MoltkeWarding wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2004 06:32 Famouzze wrote:
again, read what i wrote and reply to it if u really want to reconsider ur opinion. most ppl would rther stick to their first impulse to the bitter end and i can understand that. but the fact is im the one who posted this riddle, and im the one who knows the answer. if u dont want to reconsider thats fine, if u do then read what i wrote and reply to it O_O;

I'm sick of people elevating their opinion to untouchable status while neither being able to disprove those who think the contrary nor prove their own opinion. I've read your answer 40 times in this thread and its still wrong.


then respond to it and explain why????? -_-;;;;

On November 22 2004 06:33 MoltkeWarding wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2004 06:31 Famouzze wrote:
On November 22 2004 06:28 KarlSberg~ wrote:
I don't understand what point you want me to answer.


just what i wrote...

"lets say instead of 2 children the woman is Mother Earth and she has 8,000,000,000 children. the people who think its 50% and not 2/3 are arguing that even over such a long sample size as the entire planet, there is no tendency towards a 50/50 layout of boys/girls. then how do u explain that this is what happened on the planet earth? the larger the sample size, the less likely it is to be all one gender.

same with coin flips. anyone who knows anything about probability knows that the longer you flip a coin for, the closer to 50/50 layout of heads/tails you will come. everyone can agree with this. it is mathematically impossible to flip a coin 1,000,000,000,000 times and have more than 60% of either heads or tails. do u see the connection between this and the boy/girl problem?"


That's completely untrue. You have already flipped coins and therefore those do not count in any future ratios. According to your logic
I flip coins 9 times, they all come up tails
When I flip the 10th coin, it has a 90% chance of going heads.

Try this yourself. It never works.


Not 90%, but more than 50%. i have tried it, now its ur turn to try ^^;. try it this way: flip the coin 10 times, then 10 more, then 10 more, etc. after each 10 record how many tails and how many heads. over time it will become closer and closer to 50% heads 50% tails. i guaran-damn-tee it. i even have proof: look at the gender layout of the planet. nearly 50% boys and 50% girls. its not a huge coincidence that it happened to be this way now and all throughout history.
KarlSberg~
Profile Blog Joined September 2003
731 Posts
November 21 2004 21:39 GMT
#648
Ok I'll make a last try.
By saying one of the kids answers, you implicitely create a distinction between the 2 of them. That means BG and GB can not be considered to be the same situation. (kids being ordered by "who answers", instead of their age wich has absolutely nothing to do with the problem)
If you can't understand what I mean, I can at least tell you some people (Catyoul and RoTaNiMoD) explained it around page 9-10 of the thread.
There are 01 kind of people who know binary. Those who understand little endian and those who don t.
yeehaw
Profile Joined October 2004
San Marino888 Posts
November 21 2004 21:41 GMT
#649
Famouzze you only deserve this image:

Now can we get back to where we were before he derailed it?
G_G
MoltkeWarding
Profile Joined November 2003
5195 Posts
November 21 2004 21:41 GMT
#650
I am not arguing that if you flip a coin 10 times you will not come closer to 50%. However you are considering the possibility BEFORE established facts.

If it's an established fact that your first 5 flips are 5 heads, then the odds of you coming to 50% tails or above in 5 flips, which was 50% BEFORE your first 5 flips is reduced to infinitisimal odds.

In fact the odds are: 0.5^5.
Famouzze
Profile Joined June 2004
971 Posts
November 21 2004 21:43 GMT
#651
god i love ppl =) so stupid and yet so sure they're always right =) no offense to anyone! i know its a hard riddle. maybe if u go ask ur math professor? o_O

still waiting for anyone to reply to my post on the terms i laid out. if u really read what i wrote and think it through u will see the light. im also willing to keep replying to try and explain it to ppl who are really making an effort to understand. as it is those are in the vast minority compared to those who woiuld rather be right than be accurate.
MoltkeWarding
Profile Joined November 2003
5195 Posts
November 21 2004 21:44 GMT
#652
On November 22 2004 06:39 KarlSberg~ wrote:
Ok I'll make a last try.
By saying one of the kids answers, you implicitely create a distinction between the 2 of them. That means BG and GB can not be considered to be the same situation. (kids being ordered by "who answers", instead of their age wich has absolutely nothing to do with the problem)
If you can't understand what I mean, I can at least tell you some people (Catyoul and RoTaNiMoD) explained it around page 9-10 of the thread.


Let me put it an easier way. Instead of ranking #1 and #2 in terms of age, lets rank #1 and #2 in the order that you see them. This way there is no possibility of boy-girl switcheroo.

Given: Children are (1,2)
1= Girl

2 Possibilities left:

In order you see them

(girl, boy)
(girl, girl)
KarlSberg~
Profile Blog Joined September 2003
731 Posts
Last Edited: 2004-11-21 21:48:21
November 21 2004 21:47 GMT
#653
On November 22 2004 06:43 Famouzze wrote:
god i love ppl =) so stupid and yet so sure they're always right =) no offense to anyone! i know its a hard riddle. maybe if u go ask ur math professor? o_O

still waiting for anyone to reply to my post on the terms i laid out. if u really read what i wrote and think it through u will see the light. im also willing to keep replying to try and explain it to ppl who are really making an effort to understand. as it is those are in the vast minority compared to those who woiuld rather be right than be accurate.


Famouzze just so you know, you are both wrong and a prick.
If you are fine with it, then so be it.
There are 01 kind of people who know binary. Those who understand little endian and those who don t.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
November 21 2004 21:48 GMT
#654
corbalt dude read up on probability theory, it does not work the way u describe
the experiment u are conducting stands on its own, it is not affected by previous experiments and it is not dependant on any other previous results(same applies to both coin toss and child sex)

u are taking statistics and applying it to one experiment's probability %, it does not work this way
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Famouzze
Profile Joined June 2004
971 Posts
November 21 2004 21:49 GMT
#655
hey im just telling you, this is the answer. do u really think the person who has known this riddle for years and posted it in the first place doesnt understand his own riddle? i swear to god i know for a fact this is the answer. its not my opinion. take it or leave it as you will...
KarlSberg~
Profile Blog Joined September 2003
731 Posts
November 21 2004 21:49 GMT
#656
On November 22 2004 06:41 yeehaw wrote:
Now can we get back to where we were before he derailed it?


Now, that looks like a good idea.
There are 01 kind of people who know binary. Those who understand little endian and those who don t.
KarlSberg~
Profile Blog Joined September 2003
731 Posts
November 21 2004 21:50 GMT
#657
On November 22 2004 06:49 Famouzze wrote:
hey im just telling you, this is the answer. do u really think the person who has known this riddle for years and posted it in the first place doesnt understand his own riddle? i swear to god i know for a fact this is the answer. its not my opinion. take it or leave it as you will...


I think the person who invented this riddle knows how to word it right.
Unlike you.
There are 01 kind of people who know binary. Those who understand little endian and those who don t.
MoltkeWarding
Profile Joined November 2003
5195 Posts
November 21 2004 21:51 GMT
#658
On November 22 2004 06:49 Famouzze wrote:
hey im just telling you, this is the answer. do u really think the person who has known this riddle for years and posted it in the first place doesnt understand his own riddle? i swear to god i know for a fact this is the answer. its not my opinion. take it or leave it as you will...


Wait you know this for a fact
Yet so far you have shown your understanding of the subject to be wrong.
You can't prove that it's 66/33 and when you try, you get refuted.

So I guess when you prove it, its wrong. When you can't prove it, its right :/
Famouzze
Profile Joined June 2004
971 Posts
November 21 2004 21:51 GMT
#659
fine lets stop discussing my riddle because its clearly not going anwhere . i'll just post one last thing, the encyclopedia entry for the analogous monty hall problem

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

if u dont believe wikipedia or cant see the connection between that and the gneder problem then i give up trying to convince anyone.
KarlSberg~
Profile Blog Joined September 2003
731 Posts
November 21 2004 21:56 GMT
#660
On November 22 2004 06:51 Famouzze wrote:
fine lets stop discussing my riddle because its clearly not going anwhere . i'll just post one last thing, the encyclopedia entry for the analogous monty hall problem

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

if u dont believe wikipedia or cant see the connection between that and the gneder problem then i give up trying to convince anyone.


Nobody said the answer to that problem was not 2/3. It just isn't the same problem, sorry if you fail to understand why. The problem could be analogous if you changed a bit the way you wrote your riddle. But the way you put it, IT IS NOT !
There are 01 kind of people who know binary. Those who understand little endian and those who don t.
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