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Please guys, stay on topic.
This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. |
On December 07 2024 02:57 hitthat wrote:
Iran may directly intervene motivating it "invitation from legal gouverment of Syria". Hesbollah are just a proxies and their involvement would make no real difference. If Iran sends the regular army, it may turn the tides of this war. Russian kamov gunship is already filmed attacking targets by unguaided missiles in syrian city Homs. So the city might be already under attack by rebel forces. The real problem for possible iranian intervention might be logistics, because with this rate of territorian gains of rebels both the iraqui border and coast may be cut off.
The logistics is what I'm referring to. Don't think Iran can deploy their forces in time considering the speed of the collapse. You're also underestimating Hezbollah. They were crucial in recapturing territory earlier in the war. Their losses in the war against Israel is one of the main reasons for the rebel offensive.
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I don't think Isreal will tolerate irgc in Syria and they're still way up on their haunches. The easiest path to victory for the rebels is to make a deal with the devil handing the kurds a corridor to Isreal to build an oil pipeline down there while creating a wall against iran/Iraq. If Isreal airstrikes start pouring in to support hts to counteract any Iranian intervention Syria might just be a nato friend by the end of 2025.
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When you think the situation can't get worse for Assad.
HTS have begun attacks on Homs and moves to start encirclement.
Eastern rebels have begun advancing west and are close to cutting the highway from Homs to Damascus, answering the question if these groups can cooperate.
And southern rebels have coalesced into a single front and launched a "special military operation" to take Damascus.
They are like 4 km from the city so they might take it in 3 days (lol).
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The syrian army situation continues to deteriorate. 1500 soldiers of Republican Guard Brigade crossed the iraqi borders and dissarmed. Outskirts of Damascus are already under rebel control. In this rate the regime is done not in weeks, but hours.
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Having both Damascus and Homs most likley fall very soon is crazy.
Only Latakai/Tartus thats left of Assads rule after that
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Is there a war map like for Ukraine? How close are the Rebels to the Russian bases?
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syria.livemapua.com is OK.
I think they were about 34 km from the airfield. They are not advancing in that direction, don't have the artillery to reach them.
Also Russia is leaving.
I guess if Damascus and Homs fall and the Alawites take the rebels up on the offer to surrender without persecution and remaining Russians are in big trouble.
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On December 08 2024 02:46 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
syria.livemapua.com is OK.
I think they were about 34 km from the airfield. They are not advancing in that direction, don't have the artillery to reach them.
Also Russia is leaving.
I guess if Damascus and Homs fall and the Alawites take the rebels up on the offer to surrender without persecution and remaining Russians are in big trouble.
Thank you I'll check it out.
I've heard Hezbollah has now set troops to support Assad. Can Israel attack them in Syria without jeopardizing the ceasefire?
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Homs has officialy fallen.
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On December 08 2024 06:22 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2024 02:46 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
syria.livemapua.com is OK.
I think they were about 34 km from the airfield. They are not advancing in that direction, don't have the artillery to reach them.
Also Russia is leaving.
I guess if Damascus and Homs fall and the Alawites take the rebels up on the offer to surrender without persecution and remaining Russians are in big trouble. Thank you I'll check it out. I've heard Hezbollah has now set troops to support Assad. Can Israel attack them in Syria without jeopardizing the ceasefire?
Sure. But it's about 2000 fighters and recent reports have them running.
It's not going to make a lick of difference to the rebels what Hezb does at this time and Hezb fighters in Syria will likely have a bad time. Even if the rebels are many different factions they all hate Assad and his goverment, Russia, Iran and Hezb.
Seems like HTS are willing to turn the other cheek to former Assad loyalist in the name of national unity.
For the other three. Probably not so much...
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Starting to read reports of Damascus falling and soldiers putting down their arms to change into street clothes. It is mind bending how fast this is happening. Also wild that no one knows what is going to happen next.
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On December 08 2024 10:40 Billyboy wrote:
Starting to read reports of Damascus falling and soldiers putting down their arms to change into street clothes. It is mind bending how fast this is happening. Also wild that no one knows what is going to happen next. As someone said, potentially bad time for christians and wrong kind of muslims, depending on who'll be in power.
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On August 29 2011 02:22 ImFromPortugal wrote:Syrian opposition decides to take up arms against Assad regimeLeader of Revolutionary Council tell London-based As-Sharq al-Awsat that the only solution to regime's violence is armed uprising. The leader of the Revolutionary Council of the Syrian Coordination Committees, Mohammad Rahhal, said in remarks published Sunday that the council took the decision to arm the Syrian revolution. Since mid-March pro-democracy protests have engulfed most of Syria calling for political and economic reforms as well as for the ousting of Syrian president Bashar Assad. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/syrian-opposition-decides-to-take-up-arms-against-assad-regime-1.381184
My first post on this thread, hopefully the Syrians can have some peace but i doubt it's over... there will be more conflict in the near future.
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So seems likely we end up with a negotiation soon. HTS and its allies holding the north. Kurds North East. Other rebels holding the south and Assad faction holding the coast.
The other option is that the north and south rebels trust each other enough to go for the coast.
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On December 08 2024 10:51 ZeroByte13 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2024 10:40 Billyboy wrote:
Starting to read reports of Damascus falling and soldiers putting down their arms to change into street clothes. It is mind bending how fast this is happening. Also wild that no one knows what is going to happen next. As someone said, potentially bad time for christians and wrong kind of muslims, depending on who'll be in power.
The best outcome would probably be a federal state. HTS seems more moderate than the groups it evolved from. Hopefully, this is not just a front, similar to the supposedly reformed Taliban before the fall of Afghanistan.
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I still don't understand how Asad's regime could fall so fast. I would expect them to be more resistant and experienced after years of fighting. Was the foreign support really that important?
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On December 08 2024 20:58 Sent. wrote:
I still don't understand how Asad's regime could fall so fast. I would expect them to be more resistant and experienced after years of fighting. Was the foreign support really that important?
Experienced yes but after a decade of hard war you are very brittle. One of the last things to truly kick over the end of the central powers in ww1 was the collapse of the Macedonian front. Was it the most critical? No but it was the shocking chain of events that led to the greater collapse of the war. I don't think hts or the rebels are really that much stronger, just that they have enough strength to answer the bell one more round.
Undeniably there are unkranian fingerprints in the offensive. Drone warfare from them made a massive difference to collapse defences in the first battles. After that it's the other factions being convinced that this was the time to join in and asads allies seeing this as the time to bail. The momentum of a collapse is shocking to everyone involved. I'm sure there have been rushed backdoor conversations between Isreal usa tukyie and anyone they can still contact.
There is so much to gain from all the parties working together but it would be a Nobel peace prize to accomplish it.
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On December 08 2024 20:58 Sent. wrote:
I still don't understand how Asad's regime could fall so fast. I would expect them to be more resistant and experienced after years of fighting. Was the foreign support really that important?
Yes, outside support was very important. Russian intervention was a game changer at the time. The Syrian army was mostly composed of conscripts. Corruption, lack of equipment, and poor pay hollowed out the Syrian army over the years. This bbc article is a little bit more in depth.
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On December 08 2024 22:34 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2024 20:58 Sent. wrote:
I still don't understand how Asad's regime could fall so fast. I would expect them to be more resistant and experienced after years of fighting. Was the foreign support really that important? Yes, outside support was very important. Russian intervention was a game changer at the time. The Syrian army was mostly composed of conscripts. Corruption, lack of equipment, and poor pay hollowed out the Syrian army over the years. This bbc article is a little bit more in depth.
Thanks!
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EPT
