EPTAnd having Syria as a failed state is problematic, theres still a decent presence of ISIS in the middle of the country.
Iraq & Syrian Civil Wars - Page 426
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Please guys, stay on topic. This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden790 Posts
And having Syria as a failed state is problematic, theres still a decent presence of ISIS in the middle of the country. | ||
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ImFromPortugal
Portugal1368 Posts
On November 30 2024 05:05 Billyboy wrote: It is exiting to see Iran lose its grip on some of these other countries in the middle east, their colonial ambitions have taken a major hit. I'm concerned that the people who fill that vacuum will be just as bad or worse, but there is reason to be hopeful for a change. Yes it's always good to fill that gap with alqaeda and other militants, fantastic for the west as well since those sunni groups are often the ones committing terrorist attacks in Europe. | ||
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AssyrianKing
Australia2116 Posts
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Kreuger
Sweden790 Posts
If this keeps Rolling Assad will at most have the coast and Damascus in 1-2 weeks | ||
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stilt
France2754 Posts
On November 30 2024 05:23 ImFromPortugal wrote: Yes it's always good to fill that gap with alqaeda and other militants, fantastic for the west as well since those sunni groups are often the ones committing terrorist attacks in Europe. Funny as for the sake of israel those guys support djihadists affiliated with al qaeda. Moreover, Alep's christian community has supported Assad, there will be most likely a strong repression. | ||
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stilt
France2754 Posts
On November 30 2024 05:23 ImFromPortugal wrote: Yes it's always good to fill that gap with alqaeda and other militants, fantastic for the west as well since those sunni groups are often the ones committing terrorist attacks in Europe. Funny as for the sake of israel those guys support djihadists affiliated with al qaeda. Moreover, Alep's christian community has supported Assad, there will be most likely a strong repression. A lot of daesh elements will be freed as well | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden790 Posts
Also seen some claims that Assad and family has relocated to Moscow allready, would imply that he knew this was coming and we might se Afghanistan 2.0 | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden790 Posts
edit: more and more about a coup, seems Intelligence-division started it and are fighting 4th division led by Maher atm. Crazy events | ||
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zeo
Serbia6310 Posts
On December 01 2024 02:12 Kreuger wrote: Hama and Homs seems likley to fall very soon. Also seen some claims that Assad and family has relocated to Moscow allready, would imply that he knew this was coming and we might se Afghanistan 2.0 Its Libya 2.0 unfortunately for the Syrian people | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden790 Posts
On December 01 2024 04:37 zeo wrote: Its Libya 2.0 unfortunately for the Syrian people Yeah, would expect a real hell for alawites and christians when HTS assume control. | ||
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zeo
Serbia6310 Posts
On December 01 2024 04:43 Kreuger wrote: Yeah, would expect a real hell for alawites and christians when HTS assume control. Its hell for everyone in Syria, Muslims in these areas going from relative peace, freedom for women and a normal life... to sharia law. Horrible. But Syria has been in much worse situations, Syria fought by itself for years and held on. The people there held on to their secular state and I hope for their sake they still have the will to hold on. Al Qaeda and other jihadists have been patched up and armed to the teeth, its going to be tough but to give up is to drop into the abyss. Anyone that has spent more time following any conflict involving Arabs knows this kind of fuck up is every day shit | ||
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Sermokala
United States14047 Posts
As time goes on I think this has been a direct result of the US election, everyone knows its a now or never time for "finishing" work before Trump gets into office and becomes a puppet to whatever putin wants. Assad will never be weaker than this window where no more help can come for him. All his allies are either broken or busy with their own problems. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2654 Posts
So we are right now in Syria civil war 2.0 and a lot of the major factions have split, merged and rebranded. Right now the big factions are: SAA - The Syrian Army. Allied with Iran, Russia, Hezbollah and some Iraqi militias. The regimes biggest strongholds are Damascus and the coastal regions where the Alawites live (Islamic shia offshoot, generally seen as apostates by Sunni, Asad and his power base are Alawites). Hated by everyone else, but had a truce with SDF. SDF - After the previous rebellion failed groups split and merged into 3 major factions. SDF is is the Syrian Defence forces. Made of of various Kurdish groups but also arab militias. Yellow on most maps. Been avoiding fighting SAA because they are mainly fighting SNA. Had more or less a truce with SAA because of this. Holds most of the oil fields. The eastern groups are allied/supported by USA but not the northern groups bordering Turkey. SNA - Syrian National Army. Groups allied to Turkey. Hates Assad but mainly likes to fight or ethnically cleanse Kurds. Very heavily supported by Turkey. "Allied" to HTS or at least have a truce with them. HTS Hayat Tahir Al-Sham is a coalition of more religious militias with a side dish of nationalism. Their goal is to oust Assad and Iranian militias and establish Islamic rule in Syria. Previously affiliated with Al Queda but not anymore. Their leader is a bonafide terrorist. The interesting thing is they have mellowed down a lot the last year. Much more tolerant and their leader has apparently taken a masterclass in PR. For example they tolerate other religions now, have removed the religious police, regularly let hostile forces go if they surrender and just recently called for reconciliation with the Alawite sect. Basically they went from 2 chillis worth of Jihad (where the Talibans are 3) down to 1. If this is just because they wan to be more palatable to the west and don't want to get bombed by western powers and Turkey and they will change back if they get power, or if it's a real shift is hard to tell. But they do talk the talk and walk the walk (for now). Basically the new war is all HTS. They stated they were going to take Alepo and they did and then they kept pushing. SDF scrambled in and took a bunch of ground which prompted the SNA to start fighting them (also a bit of SAA). SDF have lost a lot of territory and is under heavy attack from SNA and Turkey. But rigth now HTS are assaulting Hama. It's an important town on the road to Homs. If they can take Homs Assad is basically fucked because he will only have Damascus and the coastal regions and they will be split up. Since Hezb and Russia is basically out of the picture, Iraqi militias have a hard time getting into the country (recently strafed by US A10s when they crossed into Syria) and Israel have basically told Iran that they will fuck any IRGC in Syria it certainly looks possible. Not the least because HTS seem to have improved their tactics a bit (they have drone warfare now) and their strategic movement a lot. For example they pull back when they lack supply lines and encircled 3 sides of Hama before their assault instead of relying on charging in. As per usual there are virtually no real good guys and the situation is fucked. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2654 Posts
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hitthat
Poland2267 Posts
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2654 Posts
The south is rebelling in multiple areas. HTS are already at Homs and are conducting staging operations and drone strikes. | ||
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hitthat
Poland2267 Posts
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RvB
Netherlands6255 Posts
On December 07 2024 02:27 hitthat wrote: This looks like a decisive victory in this war even if only tenth of current news will be comfirmed. The victory that may end the Assad's regime in weeks. Iran seems to be the last chance for Assad to save his butt, because if army keep collapsing that fast, his end is imminent. Not sure how Iran can help in the time frame the Syrian army is collapsing. To make matters worse they're also losing the border crossings. Hezbollah participating in the war against Israel was a gigantic strategic error in hindsight. | ||
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hitthat
Poland2267 Posts
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Billyboy
1272 Posts
On December 05 2024 22:46 hitthat wrote: This is not a reason to celebrate btw. Depends who you are. | ||
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