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Please guys, stay on topic.
This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. |
News about Syria for a change...
Huge developments in eastern Ghouta over the last few days. The Harasta pocket has been fully evacuated and as of today is under control of the Syrian state for the first time since 2012. The last of the buses joined the 500 or so jihadists and their family members that left for Idlib yesterday.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/CAg5w1Q.jpg)
Open in a new tab for higher resolution
Though the real big one came yesterday. With the Syrian army sweeping through the Ain Terma farms and the collapse of defenses at Ain Terma imminent militants agreed to abandon the southern pocket and be exported to Idlib. The clearing of the pocket is expected to start today (though different sources give different times). The various salafist-jihadist and friends factions that have surrendered officially so far:
Liwa Abu Musa al-Ashari
Ahrar al-Sham
Faylaq al-Rahman
Tahrir al-Sham
Quick points about the handover:
All together around 7000+ will leave the pocket (this includes the militants themselves, family members and civilians), they have agreed to surrender all heavy weapons, heavy and light machine-guns, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers, self-made mortars and ammunition for these types of weapons. They will also hand over to the Syrian authorities all forcibly detained people and prisoners of war. The militants will give the Syrian military maps of all minefields, schemes of underground tunnels and communications along with other documentation of local fortifications.
Negotiations took place under the mediation of Russia, their military police will deploy several checkpoints in Irbin and Jobar to ensure the smooth handover of the pocket. As with similar successful hangovers Syria will provide an opportunity of a peaceful life to those who want to stay in these cities after standard filtering and searching for people who have stained themselves with bloody crimes. People in need of urgent medical aid will be evacuated from Syria to Syrian territory, as well as a large number of civilian hostages held by the militants. Delivery of humanitarian aid will be organized for people leaving the pocket.
The decision of the militants and jihadists to surrender has sharply shifted the timetable for the final elimination of the terrorist enclave in east Ghouta. From a military point of view, it was here that the residential development was densest, the storming of which could be delayed over and over again for weeks/months, accompanied by significant casualties and destruction.
After the surrender of Harasta and Jobar, only Duma remains, which is likely to follow their example (though word through the grapevine suggests Jaysh al-Islam would not be the most popular kid in the block if the went to Idlib if you get what I mean. Though watching western media fangirl a group that calls for an Islamic state under Sharia law to be created in Syria is mildly amusing). Eastern Ghouta is likely to be cleared by early-mid April, giving the Syrians virtually 1-1.5 extra months to regroup and prepare for the summer campaign of 2018. Eastern Ghouta bogged down considerable forces of the Assad army, which can now be used in operations in the province of Dara, an offensive against the El-Lataman ridge in northern Hama, mopping up the Yarmuk camp, or going to clear the desert from the remains of ISIS in eastern Syria.
Finally the residents of Damascus can sleep peacefully after so many years and not worry about terrorists shelling their homes. They had to claw their way back centimeter by centimeter after some very dark days in 2012:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/V71NhjW.jpg)
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On March 24 2018 09:37 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2018 22:37 lastpuritan wrote:On March 23 2018 13:02 KwarK wrote:Russia and the Ottoman Empire were on different sides in World War 1 and neither empire survived the war. Read a damn book. sigh... at least keep your silence? have you heard of bolsheviks? just asking. The Bolsheviks weren’t involved in WW1. That was one of their main policies. The Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire fought in WW1. Neither Empire survived WW1. Russia collapsed into civil war at the end of 1917 and the Bolsheviks only held the highly populous area around the main western cities during the rest of WW1 while the remnants of the old regime held on to the rest of the nation and were, incidentally, still fighting the Central Powers. By the time the Bolsheviks had consolidated control and established what we would know as the Soviet Union the Ottoman Empire had long fallen. So let's return to your original claim, that the Russian Empire provided aid to the Ottoman Empire during WW1, allowing the Ottoman Empire to defeat the invading forces. Firstly, the Ottoman Empire was defeated by the invading forces in WW1 and was dissolved. Secondly, the Russian Empire were one of those invading forces for the majority of WW1. Learn to admit that you misspoke.
sweet, but for gods sake can you point me where exactly I used the "RUSSIAN EMPIRE and OTTOMAN EMPIRE" and claimed they helped each other.
by the way, I think we owe more to the russians than americans if the subject is istanbul. russian arms were vital in ww1 for turks to defeat invading forces.
it was still ww1 for us, and bolsheviks supplied turkish army to halt greeks, these events lead to a point where brits decided to leave istanbul. ataturk's fake romance with communism enabled it. I think you thought I was referring to the ottomans when I said ww1 but it's surprising that you're quick to jump phrasing things like read a damn book, learn history blabla. I believe everyone in this topic has a general knowledge about world wars, easy.
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United States43040 Posts
On March 26 2018 06:54 lastpuritan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2018 09:37 KwarK wrote:On March 23 2018 22:37 lastpuritan wrote:On March 23 2018 13:02 KwarK wrote:Russia and the Ottoman Empire were on different sides in World War 1 and neither empire survived the war. Read a damn book. sigh... at least keep your silence? have you heard of bolsheviks? just asking. The Bolsheviks weren’t involved in WW1. That was one of their main policies. The Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire fought in WW1. Neither Empire survived WW1. Russia collapsed into civil war at the end of 1917 and the Bolsheviks only held the highly populous area around the main western cities during the rest of WW1 while the remnants of the old regime held on to the rest of the nation and were, incidentally, still fighting the Central Powers. By the time the Bolsheviks had consolidated control and established what we would know as the Soviet Union the Ottoman Empire had long fallen. So let's return to your original claim, that the Russian Empire provided aid to the Ottoman Empire during WW1, allowing the Ottoman Empire to defeat the invading forces. Firstly, the Ottoman Empire was defeated by the invading forces in WW1 and was dissolved. Secondly, the Russian Empire were one of those invading forces for the majority of WW1. Learn to admit that you misspoke. sweet, but for gods sake can you point me where exactly I used the "RUSSIAN EMPIRE and OTTOMAN EMPIRE" and claimed they helped each other. Show nested quote +by the way, I think we owe more to the russians than americans if the subject is istanbul. russian arms were vital in ww1 for turks to defeat invading forces. it was still ww1 for us, and bolsheviks supplied turkish army to halt greeks, these events lead to a point where brits decided to leave istanbul. ataturk's fake romance with communism enabled it. I think you thought I was referring to the ottomans when I said ww1 but it's surprising that you're quick to jump phrasing things like read a damn book, learn history blabla. I believe everyone in this topic has a general knowledge about world wars, easy.
What I'm getting from this is that you think World War 1 was a war between Turkey and Greece?
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On March 24 2018 23:25 zeo wrote:News about Syria for a change... Huge developments in eastern Ghouta over the last few days. The Harasta pocket has been fully evacuated and as of today is under control of the Syrian state for the first time since 2012. The last of the buses joined the 500 or so jihadists and their family members that left for Idlib yesterday. Open in a new tab for higher resolutionThough the real big one came yesterday. With the Syrian army sweeping through the Ain Terma farms and the collapse of defenses at Ain Terma imminent militants agreed to abandon the southern pocket and be exported to Idlib. The clearing of the pocket is expected to start today (though different sources give different times). The various salafist-jihadist and friends factions that have surrendered officially so far: Liwa Abu Musa al-Ashari Ahrar al-ShamFaylaq al-RahmanTahrir al-ShamQuick points about the handover:All together around 7000+ will leave the pocket (this includes the militants themselves, family members and civilians), they have agreed to surrender all heavy weapons, heavy and light machine-guns, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers, self-made mortars and ammunition for these types of weapons. They will also hand over to the Syrian authorities all forcibly detained people and prisoners of war. The militants will give the Syrian military maps of all minefields, schemes of underground tunnels and communications along with other documentation of local fortifications. Negotiations took place under the mediation of Russia, their military police will deploy several checkpoints in Irbin and Jobar to ensure the smooth handover of the pocket. As with similar successful hangovers Syria will provide an opportunity of a peaceful life to those who want to stay in these cities after standard filtering and searching for people who have stained themselves with bloody crimes. People in need of urgent medical aid will be evacuated from Syria to Syrian territory, as well as a large number of civilian hostages held by the militants. Delivery of humanitarian aid will be organized for people leaving the pocket. The decision of the militants and jihadists to surrender has sharply shifted the timetable for the final elimination of the terrorist enclave in east Ghouta. From a military point of view, it was here that the residential development was densest, the storming of which could be delayed over and over again for weeks/months, accompanied by significant casualties and destruction. After the surrender of Harasta and Jobar, only Duma remains, which is likely to follow their example (though word through the grapevine suggests Jaysh al-Islam would not be the most popular kid in the block if the went to Idlib if you get what I mean. Though watching western media fangirl a group that calls for an Islamic state under Sharia law to be created in Syria is mildly amusing). Eastern Ghouta is likely to be cleared by early-mid April, giving the Syrians virtually 1-1.5 extra months to regroup and prepare for the summer campaign of 2018. Eastern Ghouta bogged down considerable forces of the Assad army, which can now be used in operations in the province of Dara, an offensive against the El-Lataman ridge in northern Hama, mopping up the Yarmuk camp, or going to clear the desert from the remains of ISIS in eastern Syria. Finally the residents of Damascus can sleep peacefully after so many years and not worry about terrorists shelling their homes. They had to claw their way back centimeter by centimeter after some very dark days in 2012:
Thank God.
I’m seriously wondering what’s going to happen once Syria has cleaned up. The north is going to be a complicated mess
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On March 26 2018 19:28 AssyrianKing wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2018 23:25 zeo wrote:News about Syria for a change... Huge developments in eastern Ghouta over the last few days. The Harasta pocket has been fully evacuated and as of today is under control of the Syrian state for the first time since 2012. The last of the buses joined the 500 or so jihadists and their family members that left for Idlib yesterday. Open in a new tab for higher resolutionThough the real big one came yesterday. With the Syrian army sweeping through the Ain Terma farms and the collapse of defenses at Ain Terma imminent militants agreed to abandon the southern pocket and be exported to Idlib. The clearing of the pocket is expected to start today (though different sources give different times). The various salafist-jihadist and friends factions that have surrendered officially so far: Liwa Abu Musa al-Ashari Ahrar al-ShamFaylaq al-RahmanTahrir al-ShamQuick points about the handover:All together around 7000+ will leave the pocket (this includes the militants themselves, family members and civilians), they have agreed to surrender all heavy weapons, heavy and light machine-guns, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers, self-made mortars and ammunition for these types of weapons. They will also hand over to the Syrian authorities all forcibly detained people and prisoners of war. The militants will give the Syrian military maps of all minefields, schemes of underground tunnels and communications along with other documentation of local fortifications. Negotiations took place under the mediation of Russia, their military police will deploy several checkpoints in Irbin and Jobar to ensure the smooth handover of the pocket. As with similar successful hangovers Syria will provide an opportunity of a peaceful life to those who want to stay in these cities after standard filtering and searching for people who have stained themselves with bloody crimes. People in need of urgent medical aid will be evacuated from Syria to Syrian territory, as well as a large number of civilian hostages held by the militants. Delivery of humanitarian aid will be organized for people leaving the pocket. The decision of the militants and jihadists to surrender has sharply shifted the timetable for the final elimination of the terrorist enclave in east Ghouta. From a military point of view, it was here that the residential development was densest, the storming of which could be delayed over and over again for weeks/months, accompanied by significant casualties and destruction. After the surrender of Harasta and Jobar, only Duma remains, which is likely to follow their example (though word through the grapevine suggests Jaysh al-Islam would not be the most popular kid in the block if the went to Idlib if you get what I mean. Though watching western media fangirl a group that calls for an Islamic state under Sharia law to be created in Syria is mildly amusing). Eastern Ghouta is likely to be cleared by early-mid April, giving the Syrians virtually 1-1.5 extra months to regroup and prepare for the summer campaign of 2018. Eastern Ghouta bogged down considerable forces of the Assad army, which can now be used in operations in the province of Dara, an offensive against the El-Lataman ridge in northern Hama, mopping up the Yarmuk camp, or going to clear the desert from the remains of ISIS in eastern Syria. Finally the residents of Damascus can sleep peacefully after so many years and not worry about terrorists shelling their homes. They had to claw their way back centimeter by centimeter after some very dark days in 2012: Thank God. I’m seriously wondering what’s going to happen once Syria has cleaned up. The north is going to be a complicated mess
And if Turkey doesn't stop it'll spill into the east. No one really gives a shit about the nations borders so no one really has an idea where to draw a line.
I mean if turkey really has some weird idea of wanting to occupy more kurdish areas whats to stop them from going into northern Iraq? What even is syria anymore?
I've been thinking about it more but I can actually see some value in what Turkey is doing. The assad regime is in no place to assert its sovereignty so a turkish intervention makes sense for everyone. It would have been a lot better and would have gotten a lot more support if they did this a year or more ago but this is a logical endgame for the Syrian civil war.
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On March 26 2018 13:31 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2018 06:54 lastpuritan wrote:On March 24 2018 09:37 KwarK wrote:On March 23 2018 22:37 lastpuritan wrote:On March 23 2018 13:02 KwarK wrote:Russia and the Ottoman Empire were on different sides in World War 1 and neither empire survived the war. Read a damn book. sigh... at least keep your silence? have you heard of bolsheviks? just asking. The Bolsheviks weren’t involved in WW1. That was one of their main policies. The Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire fought in WW1. Neither Empire survived WW1. Russia collapsed into civil war at the end of 1917 and the Bolsheviks only held the highly populous area around the main western cities during the rest of WW1 while the remnants of the old regime held on to the rest of the nation and were, incidentally, still fighting the Central Powers. By the time the Bolsheviks had consolidated control and established what we would know as the Soviet Union the Ottoman Empire had long fallen. So let's return to your original claim, that the Russian Empire provided aid to the Ottoman Empire during WW1, allowing the Ottoman Empire to defeat the invading forces. Firstly, the Ottoman Empire was defeated by the invading forces in WW1 and was dissolved. Secondly, the Russian Empire were one of those invading forces for the majority of WW1. Learn to admit that you misspoke. sweet, but for gods sake can you point me where exactly I used the "RUSSIAN EMPIRE and OTTOMAN EMPIRE" and claimed they helped each other. by the way, I think we owe more to the russians than americans if the subject is istanbul. russian arms were vital in ww1 for turks to defeat invading forces. it was still ww1 for us, and bolsheviks supplied turkish army to halt greeks, these events lead to a point where brits decided to leave istanbul. ataturk's fake romance with communism enabled it. I think you thought I was referring to the ottomans when I said ww1 but it's surprising that you're quick to jump phrasing things like read a damn book, learn history blabla. I believe everyone in this topic has a general knowledge about world wars, easy. What I'm getting from this is that you think World War 1 was a war between Turkey and Greece?
not sure this is sarcasm or you’re just a silly troll.
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On March 27 2018 08:54 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2018 19:28 AssyrianKing wrote:On March 24 2018 23:25 zeo wrote:News about Syria for a change... Huge developments in eastern Ghouta over the last few days. The Harasta pocket has been fully evacuated and as of today is under control of the Syrian state for the first time since 2012. The last of the buses joined the 500 or so jihadists and their family members that left for Idlib yesterday. Open in a new tab for higher resolutionThough the real big one came yesterday. With the Syrian army sweeping through the Ain Terma farms and the collapse of defenses at Ain Terma imminent militants agreed to abandon the southern pocket and be exported to Idlib. The clearing of the pocket is expected to start today (though different sources give different times). The various salafist-jihadist and friends factions that have surrendered officially so far: Liwa Abu Musa al-Ashari Ahrar al-ShamFaylaq al-RahmanTahrir al-ShamQuick points about the handover:All together around 7000+ will leave the pocket (this includes the militants themselves, family members and civilians), they have agreed to surrender all heavy weapons, heavy and light machine-guns, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers, self-made mortars and ammunition for these types of weapons. They will also hand over to the Syrian authorities all forcibly detained people and prisoners of war. The militants will give the Syrian military maps of all minefields, schemes of underground tunnels and communications along with other documentation of local fortifications. Negotiations took place under the mediation of Russia, their military police will deploy several checkpoints in Irbin and Jobar to ensure the smooth handover of the pocket. As with similar successful hangovers Syria will provide an opportunity of a peaceful life to those who want to stay in these cities after standard filtering and searching for people who have stained themselves with bloody crimes. People in need of urgent medical aid will be evacuated from Syria to Syrian territory, as well as a large number of civilian hostages held by the militants. Delivery of humanitarian aid will be organized for people leaving the pocket. The decision of the militants and jihadists to surrender has sharply shifted the timetable for the final elimination of the terrorist enclave in east Ghouta. From a military point of view, it was here that the residential development was densest, the storming of which could be delayed over and over again for weeks/months, accompanied by significant casualties and destruction. After the surrender of Harasta and Jobar, only Duma remains, which is likely to follow their example (though word through the grapevine suggests Jaysh al-Islam would not be the most popular kid in the block if the went to Idlib if you get what I mean. Though watching western media fangirl a group that calls for an Islamic state under Sharia law to be created in Syria is mildly amusing). Eastern Ghouta is likely to be cleared by early-mid April, giving the Syrians virtually 1-1.5 extra months to regroup and prepare for the summer campaign of 2018. Eastern Ghouta bogged down considerable forces of the Assad army, which can now be used in operations in the province of Dara, an offensive against the El-Lataman ridge in northern Hama, mopping up the Yarmuk camp, or going to clear the desert from the remains of ISIS in eastern Syria. Finally the residents of Damascus can sleep peacefully after so many years and not worry about terrorists shelling their homes. They had to claw their way back centimeter by centimeter after some very dark days in 2012: Thank God. I’m seriously wondering what’s going to happen once Syria has cleaned up. The north is going to be a complicated mess And if Turkey doesn't stop it'll spill into the east. No one really gives a shit about the nations borders so no one really has an idea where to draw a line. I mean if turkey really has some weird idea of wanting to occupy more kurdish areas whats to stop them from going into northern Iraq? What even is syria anymore? I've been thinking about it more but I can actually see some value in what Turkey is doing. The assad regime is in no place to assert its sovereignty so a turkish intervention makes sense for everyone. It would have been a lot better and would have gotten a lot more support if they did this a year or more ago but this is a logical endgame for the Syrian civil war.
Sure, as Turkey is a neutral party with an internationally valid reason to intervene and no part of the population in that area sees them as an occupying force  If Turkey die extend an actual olive branch towards the kurdish militias, that might have been an option. Now this just means that more areas of Syria are destabilized.
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I believe Turkey in longer run will move its 4+ millions of Syrian refugees to the northern Syria as a buffer zone between her borders and the kurds. This will probably go down well as Kurds already have stolen some Arab lands such as Raqqa.
Why does it bother anyone I don't get it, the kurds have already gained their bargain chip against Assad for better rights, the turks will be living safely in their eastern border and cities, Assad will probably fancy the idea of united Syria under his rule and rebel arabs under Turkish check. I don't think TFSA will attack to Assad for more land grabs.
The only remaining problems are how far the turks want to go in, and how will Assad deal with the kurds and the fsa.
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On March 31 2018 09:23 lastpuritan wrote:
I believe Turkey in longer run will move its 4+ millions of Syrian refugees to the northern Syria as a buffer zone between her borders and the kurds. This will probably go down well as Kurds already have stolen some Arab lands such as Raqqa.
Why does it bother anyone I don't get it, the kurds have already gained their bargain chip against Assad for better rights, the turks will be living safely in their eastern border and cities, Assad will probably fancy the idea of united Syria under his rule and rebel arabs under Turkish check. I don't think TFSA will attack to Assad for more land grabs.
The only remaining problems are how far the turks want to go in, and how will Assad deal with the kurds and the fsa.
Well Ignoring everything theres a severe logistical situation with this turkish "buffer zone". I'm all for the middle east nations to tell the british to go fuck off with their borders and have a nice euro style congress were they decide the peice of the region. But the kurds are already inside turkey. PKK isn't going to just go away and if they adopt more and more kurds under their banner without creating a Ramzan Kadyrov to hold the tribes in line PKK is just going to get stronger and stronger in the post war atmosphere. Iraq (really Iran) is going to be very unhappy with anywhere that takes northern Iraqi land so you'll always have an issue with cross border recruitment and armament.
I couldn't imagine how much the turks could get from Europe for solving the refugee problem. No matter what you say the turks are in a very good position to come out of nowhere and come second in the arab spring wars.
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On March 21 2018 08:29 Plansix wrote:
The easy argument is that the US get accused of genocide and war crimes all the time. Literally every day. Often by our own citizens. Welcome to being treated equally on the world stage Turkey. It sucks here, I would recommend going to letting other people fight wars. It seems way easier.
Well It's hard not to, when US destroyed Afganistan, Iraq, Lybia and now Syria. All the refugees go to Europe helping nationalism prosper and speeding up EU demise.
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On April 02 2018 01:58 raga4ka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2018 08:29 Plansix wrote:
The easy argument is that the US get accused of genocide and war crimes all the time. Literally every day. Often by our own citizens. Welcome to being treated equally on the world stage Turkey. It sucks here, I would recommend going to letting other people fight wars. It seems way easier. Well It's hard not to, when US destroyed Afganistan, Iraq, Lybia and now Syria. All the refugees go to Europe helping nationalism prosper and speeding up EU demise.
More likely that EU gets a much needed population boom of people often having more than 2 children. So we don't face Japan's demographics situation. Culture and values change over time, so we'll just see where the new stable situation is from this.
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On April 02 2018 02:38 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2018 01:58 raga4ka wrote:On March 21 2018 08:29 Plansix wrote:
The easy argument is that the US get accused of genocide and war crimes all the time. Literally every day. Often by our own citizens. Welcome to being treated equally on the world stage Turkey. It sucks here, I would recommend going to letting other people fight wars. It seems way easier. Well It's hard not to, when US destroyed Afganistan, Iraq, Lybia and now Syria. All the refugees go to Europe helping nationalism prosper and speeding up EU demise. More likely that EU gets a much needed population boom of people often having more than 2 children. So we don't face Japan's demographics situation. Culture and values change over time, so we'll just see where the new stable situation is from this.
The demographic crisis is way worse in Bulgaria then in Japan. I personally don't mind refugees, the problem is that we can't integrate them properly, just like our bulgarian gypsies/roms, but now with a language barrier. And we are one of the poorest nations in the EU. Well hopefully when wе get in to Shengen things will get better, also since our minimal wage is one of the lowest it's a good place to find cheap labour for investors.
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On April 02 2018 02:38 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2018 01:58 raga4ka wrote:On March 21 2018 08:29 Plansix wrote:
The easy argument is that the US get accused of genocide and war crimes all the time. Literally every day. Often by our own citizens. Welcome to being treated equally on the world stage Turkey. It sucks here, I would recommend going to letting other people fight wars. It seems way easier. Well It's hard not to, when US destroyed Afganistan, Iraq, Lybia and now Syria. All the refugees go to Europe helping nationalism prosper and speeding up EU demise. More likely that EU gets a much needed population boom of people often having more than 2 children. So we don't face Japan's demographics situation. Culture and values change over time, so we'll just see where the new stable situation is from this.
No offence mate, but your wishful thinking is the reason the EU is screwed.
User was warned for this post.
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Immigration and migration are nothing new for modern civilization. Some countries allowed for open, endless immigration and automatic citizenship for +100 years. And none of the conflicts that emerged from that cultural shift destroyed entire nations. The fear of these cultural changes are overblown or inflated for political gains.
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Historically speaking most massive immigrations were very bloody and resulted in genocide and/or falling states. The most recent example is formation of Isreal which resulted in several wars and is still a cause of suffering for displaced people. There are multiple other examples in Africa. Also as we go back in time we can see things like: immigration of Westerners to Australia, New Zeland, Maori to Chatham Islands, Westerners to Americas and so on and so on. All of which resulted in massive genocide and falling of states or societes.
Integration is only possible if immigration is small enough compared to exisiting population. Once it reach certain point there will be blood. And lots of it.
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That's just your opinion Plansix. There are infinite nuances to the matter. It would be quite easy to prove using Google and numbers that a culturally (heavily) mixed society that isn't the USA - for specific reasons that might tl.dr. be summarized as 'allegiance to the flag' - has particular highly unwelcome problems with regard to internal cohesion, long term political-religious stability, real economic gain / loss (hard numbers, no sugarcoating and projections ... The cost of integration is a factor that needs to transcend a moralist debate because someone will have to pay for it) and everyday life stability, and very few actual pragmatic benefits.
The 'demographic' debate is a funnyman ... it has little to do with the day-to-day zeitgeist condition of the people, and immigrants aren't productive enough (in a fantasy novel, even) in a digital economy to pay for an aging burgeoisie's pensions. If everyone in Japan is, I don't know, an Australian in 2200, that doesn't really benefit Japan in retrospect.
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For what its worth... The last refugee waves that "hit" Switzerland hard (Yugoslavian and Serbian/Kosovo Wars) are seen as a net gains nowadays and integration worked splendid. But obviously, they came with their fair share of problems at the time.
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Most likely though you need to consider 3 fundamental factors:
- Switzerland is ridiculously wealthy
- Most people from the Balkans spoke passable English and were culturally compatible, some even came with a "Swiss Dream" narrative
- The numbers / ratios weren't really that high
We likely had a similar situation in Slovenia (where things also worked out quite well with a sizeable influx of 'war immigrants', though I have to say the culture of our capital, for example, changed beyond recognition in the sense of becoming 30% more "balkan" in its urban or 'cultural' expression; a subject whose implications and valuation could be discussed), but it was still a very rough period with, for example, a drastic increase in violent petty crime. And that's with no major cultural barriers in play - we'd practically shared a country with these people.
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On April 06 2018 00:02 Velr wrote:
For what its worth... The last refugee waves that "hit" Switzerland hard (Yugoslavian and Serbian/Kosovo Wars) are seen as a net gains nowadays and integration worked splendid. But obviously, they came with their fair share of problems at the time.
All these plans are long term solutions to long term problem. The alternative to taking in refugees and economic migrants is leaving them in camps or to their own fate in the defunct country. I would argue that is ceding control over the situation and creating a greater risk in the long term. No nation should take in more people than they can handle, of course. But turning them all back to live in camps for over a decade is just asking for a generation hostility.
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On April 06 2018 00:14 Kickboxer wrote:
Most likely though you need to consider 3 fundamental factors:
- Switzerland is ridiculously wealthy
- Most people from the Balkans spoke passable English and were culturally compatible, some even came with a "Swiss Dream" narrative
- The numbers / ratios weren't really that high
We likely had a similar situation in Slovenia (where things also worked out quite well with a sizeable influx of 'war immigrants', though I have to say the culture of our capital, for example, changed beyond recognition in the sense of becoming 30% more "balkan" in its urban or 'cultural' expression; a subject whose implications and valuation could be discussed), but it was still a very rough period with, for example, a drastic increase in violent petty crime. And that's with no major cultural barriers in play - we'd practically shared a country with these people.
English didn't help you much in switzerland during the nineties.
The numbers and cultural diffrences were high enough for the right wing to declare the end of switzerland allready  .
While we were very wealthy, ee struggled with a recession during the 90ies.
Important policy was: No Ghettos, mx the people in as much as possible.
Will it work again? Who knows.
It looks bad for germany tho, they allready failed with the turks.
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EPT
