On November 29 2015 23:43 silynxer wrote: I know a lot of Russians here who, while being quite nationalistic and mostly agreeing with Putin, have no interest to ever return to Russia and will also talk about how the place is shit (not my words). Of course I can understand why someone would like to live in Germany over Russia from a purely materialistic point of view but I just don't see any optimism in the future of Russia.
Sampling bias. Most people who choose to leave their home country will have fewer good things to say about it, and in fact Russia is the second most popular country by number of immigrants (possibly only pre-Syrian crisis). Putin did a tremendous amount of good for the country internationally, economically, and in removing corruption, and that is objectively true if you compare Russia before and after Putin became president. There is a lot of criticism for him that is well-deserved, but a lot of it is caused by deep-seated issues in the Russian economy that have taken an extremely long time to solve properly that were very hard to appreciate in a more stable time.
Yeah this thread is probably not the right place for this, unfortunately, as I am interested in how Russians (preferable living in Russia) see the situation. You are right about a possible sampling error. To clarify a bit, I think that a lot of the growth under Putin is partly due to the fact of how deep Russia fell before (if you are down there is only one way so to speak). He absolutely deserves credit for that but now that Russia is stable what I am looking at are more recent developments (like around 3 years). I'll check some of the stuff you and Salazarz mentioned but the picture you two paint seems a bit too rosy. For example I'd guess that immigration to Russia is mostly from former UDSSR nations where the situation is even worse (and maybe even by ethnic Russians). I'll check that.
I'll leave it at that, both since this isn't really the right place for it, and because it doesn't seem like you really have any desire to discuss, only to bash.
Where did that come from? Anyway I'll not clutter the thread anymore with talk about Russia.
[EDIT]: To add to the topic at hand: I think one of the big problems with apologies on the state level, is the loss of sovereignity it implies. Unless it is part of a complete reevaluation (say Germany after WW2) official apologies only become possible in a process of mutual reconciliation because then they don't let the other party make unilateral demands. This is why it is unsurprising that Turkey won't apologize after Russias strong reaction.
i said it's tinfoilish but they do have links to some articles from Financial Times, NYTimes, heritage, businessinsider and others plus some studies in .pdf; basically they have some sources. the aljazeera one was to superficial.
ISIS EXPORT GATEWAY TO GLOBAL CRUDE OIL MARKETS George KIOURKTSOGLOU* Visiting Lecturer, University of Greenwich, London Dr Alec D COUTROUBIS Principal Lecturer, University of Greenwich, London
Conclusions The authors of this paper would like to make it clear from the very beginning that this has not been the case of a ‘smoking gun’. The evidence has been inconclusive. But even if volumes of ISIS crude found their way, beyond any reasonable doubt, to the international crude oil markets via the Ceyhan terminal, this fact would not conclusively point to collusion between the Turkish authorities and the shadow network of smugglers, let alone ISIS operatives.
However, having clarified such a politically sensitive issue, the authors believe that there are strong hints to an illicit supply chain that ships ISIS crude from Ceyhan. Primary research points to a considerably active shadow network of crude oil smugglers and traders (see section 2.1, page 3), who channel ISIS crude to southeast Turkey from northeast Syria and northwest Iraq. Given the existence of Route E 90, the corresponding transportation of oil poses no unsurmountable geographic and topological challenges.
Moreover, since the launch of the ISIS oil venture in summer 2014, tanker charter rates from Ceyhan re-coupled up to a degree with the ones from the rest of the Middle East (see section 3.3, page 11). This partial realignment may be attributed to additional Kurdish crude, whose export via Ceyhan coincided with the rise of ISIS and its oil business. Alternatively, it may be the result of boosted demand for ultra-cheap smuggled crude, available for loading from the same port. At this point the authors cannot be categorical. Nevertheless, primary research (Interview with Correspondent Y 2014 b) points to the latter scenario, while making clear that the same oil traders/shippers who used to ship oil from Baniyas, moved to Ceyhan, once Syria’s civil war brought all its seaborne trading activities to a grinding halt.
An additional manifestation of the invisible nexus between Ceyhan and ISIS became evident through the concurrent study of the tanker charter rates from the port and the timeline of the terrorists’ military engagements (see section 3.4 on this page). It seems that whenever the Islamic State is fighting in the vicinity of an area hosting oil assets, the 13 exports from Ceyhan promptly spike. This may be attributed to an extra boost given to crude oil smuggling with the aim of immediately generating additional funds, badly needed for the supply of ammunition and military equipment. Unfortunately, in this case too, the authors cannot be categorical.
If there is a certainty within the context of this paper and given the clear and present danger of terrorism, it is the urgent need for further research. The focus should be on the criminal ventures of ISIS and particularly on those that can potentially integrate it within the global economy. As implausible as it may sound, it invokes the known adage that ‘where imagination stops, reality begins’.
Acknowledgments Research featured in this paper would be impossible to take place without the first-hand intelligence and crucial insights promptly provided by: Correspondent X Correspondent Y Clarksons Plc The Authors of the paper express their gratitude to all the above.
I've seen some good and rather accurate articles from globalresearch, among tinfoil conspiracy theories that aren't worth much. That said, I usually stick to the 4-5 most credible sources I know of for reporting real news because you can never be sure.
Either ISIS or Kurdish crude oil is probably being exported out of a turkish port (Ceyhan) near the Syrian border. There is no reason is suggest that the Turkish is colluding in this as the source is most likely from a shadow network of crude oil smugglers and traders that travel through mountains that is almost impossible to impose border controls over. The most probable reason for the increase trade at Ceyhan is the shutting down of a Syrian port (Baniyas). The authors are not sure of anything. More research is required. Gibe moni plox. Thank you.
Contrary to the worldwide public belief that ISIS is just another group of bloodthirsty militants, the terrorist organisation represents the next evolutionary step of Islamic militant fundamentalism. Whereas Osama bin Laden’s brainchild, Al-Qaeda, still depends on international donors, ISIS managed to reactivate a long sleeping black market economy, mainly but not exclusively, over the territories it controls. At the very epicentre of this initiative lies the shadow network of crude oil smugglers that was initially set up three decades ago by Saddam Hussein, with the aim of working around the U.S. economic sanctions imposed on Iraq (Interview with Correspondent Y 2014 a). The outcome has been astonishing, given that the Caliphate’s portfolio of assets now includes sixty percent of Syria's oil assets and seven oil producing assets in Iraq (Brookings 2014).
At some point, immediately after the launch of its crude oil venture in summer 2014, ISIS achieved production of roughly 30,000 barrels of oil per day (CNN 2015 b). This rate has gone up, and in February 2015 reached the mark 45,000 b/d. This is a stonking statistic and it becomes almost baffling if one considers the fact that the commodity is being smuggled within a war zone. Although the price of crude nosedived in the last two quarters of 2014 (see Graph I)+ Show Spoiler +
, it is estimated that the caliphate’s cash inflows reached levels between one and three million dollars per day (Vocativ 2014). Its key to success was the sale of crude oil at rock-bottom prices between $60 and $25, when the price of the commodity was correspondingly hovering around $100 and $80 per barrel. However, it has to be mentioned that since then, the series of air raids that have been launched by the U.S., with the support of a handful of other NATO and Gulf nations, effectively curtailed the ISIS oil cashflows, chiefly through the destruction of oil manufacturing facilities.
An interesting point to be made is that extraction wells in the area of bombardments have yet to be targeted by the U.S. or the air-assets of its allies, a fact that can be readily attributed to the at times ‘toxic’ politics in the Middle East (New York Times 2014).
The Geography of ISIS oil portfolio and means of oil transportation Map I + Show Spoiler +
depicts the area under ISIS control (New York Times 2015). Within this vast territory, there are a number of oil fields whose control was lost by the Syrian central government soon after the break-out of the civil war. Most of these oil fields were assets in the portfolio of the Al-Furat Petrolum Company, a Royal Dutch Shell affiliate. The crude oil still produced in these oil fields is of fairly good quality, because it has low concentration in sulphur and as such, it can be easily processed. Once pumped to the surface, it is lightly refined either onsite in unelaborate facilities, or transported straightaway to Turkey on truck-lorries (World Policy Blog 2014).
The tradesmen/smugglers responsible for the transportation and sale of the black gold send convoys of up to thirty trucks to the extraction sites of the commodity. They settle their trades with ISIS on site, encouraged by customer friendly discounts and deferred payment schemes. In this way, crude leaves Islamic State-run wells promptly and travels through insurgent-held parts of Syria, Iraq and Turkey, while at the same time, the tradeflows cover local demand. ISIS also uses its oil wealth to shore up its local tribal support-base by strengthening commercial ties with tribes in the areas under its control. It actively urges its network to build stockpiles and allows Bedouins in the Deir al-Zor province to tap wells, such as the Bar al Milh, al Kharata, Amra, Okash, Wadi Jureib, Safeeh, Fahda and other extraction assets near Jebel Bushra. At least nine major tribes have benefited out of similar regional-friendly schemes, including Iraqi ones such as the influential Jabour tribe. As a rule of thumb, a large trailer carrying 30,000 litres of crude can make $4,000 profit in just one journey lasting a few days (Business Insider 2014).
The result of this policy is soaring support for the caliphate. As an extra measure of logistical support, the militant group allows convoys to pass more quickly through its checkpoints. Moreover, since allied U.S. air-raids do not target the truck lorries out of fear of provoking a backlash from locals, the transport operations are being run efficiently, taking place most of times in broad daylight. Traders lured by high profits are active in Syria (even in government-held territories), Iraq and south-east Turkey. According to Correspondent X (1 st and 2 nd Interview 2014), in Turkey and along the international route E90, ISIS managed to set up a string of trading hubs as depicted on Map II+ Show Spoiler +
. European route E 90 is an A-Class West-East route, extending from Lisbon in Portugal in the west, to the Turkish-Iraqi border in the east. The supply chain comprises the following localities: Sanliura, Urfa, Hakkari, Siirt, Batman, Osmaniya, Gaziantep, Sirnak, Adana, Kahramarmaras, Adiyaman and Mardin.
The string of trading hubs ends up in Adana, home to the major tanker shipping port of Ceyhan. In the next section 3 of the present study, the authors will try to answer the question whether a part of ISIS smuggled crude oil is being fed into the global oil markets, transported in tankers leaving the port of Ceyhan.
just get the pdf. there's lots of stuff there.
also
The port of Ceyhan plays host to a marine oil terminal that is situated in the Turkish Mediterranean and has been operating since 2006. ... Additionally, the port features a cargo pier and an oil-terminal, both of 23.2m depth that can load tankers of more than 500 feet in length (Ports.com 2015). The annual export capacity of the terminal runs as high as 50 million tonnes of oil. The terminal is operated by Botas International Limited (BIL), a Turkish state company that also operates the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline on the territory of Turkey.
I don't really understand the point of pointing out that some people in Turkey might be profiting off of illicit oil sales. That's a given isn't it? But Ankara & Turkey officially doesn't have to be profiting from it or even know about it.
That Daesh oil is hitting the market by one way or another. Forcing them along smuggling paths depresses the income that ultimately make it into Daesh hands. But once there is a bit of distance from its origins, oil traders will just pay market price or close to market price for it.
If you need to point to Turkey's official role in the entire affair, you need not look any further than Jarablus. Jarablus and the fact that Daesh supply lines run straight into Turkey is enough to make Turkey's role in all of this clear. Oil money doesn't matter if you don't have the supply lines.
I read your links. I don't understand what point you making about it. ISIS sells oil to middle men who sell it it locals or further up a complicated supply chain that makes its way to the international market (mostly Isreal). Other than at the point where ISIS sells the oil at their extraction sites, everything is managed independently by civilians. The oil from Kurdish regions also makes its way to international markets in a similar manner.
On December 02 2015 19:40 TanGeng wrote: I don't really understand the point of pointing out that some people in Turkey might be profiting off of illicit oil sales. That's a given isn't it? But Ankara & Turkey officially doesn't have to be profiting from it or even know about it.
There is literally 0 chance Turkish government can just 'not know' about oil smuggling going through Turkey. The volumes are just too big for it to be something you could hide -- unless of course the government doesn't WANT those things to be found. It's not like we're talking about a bunch of lads selling a few cans of gasoline somewhere out in the desert. The amounts moved require specialized (and very big) infrastructure and vehicles.
The conjecture or even evidence of smuggle doesn't matter. Smuggling happens. It's natural during boycotts, embargoes, and economic sanctions. It's a big so what even when oil moves in the mass it does. Oil from Kurdish region and northern Iraq (again Kurdish regions) flow by the same paths.
This is quite different from Turkish military's substantial support of ISIS in stopping Kurdish advance on Jarablus or supplying arms to Turkmens, who then share that with their affiliated ISIS allies.
On December 02 2015 22:57 Isualin wrote: ^ I am surprised how zeo hasn't posted this yet but russians have given a conference about this an hour ago.
That would be because zeo is banned for a few more days for copy posting Kremlin drivel as his own opinion. Complete with links to sources that tell something completely different.
On December 02 2015 23:45 Rassy wrote: Putin says erdogan is personally involved in the oil trade with isis and that he can prove it and will present prove next week. Tbh I do not think that putin is bluffing here,this is quiet concerning and could have a serious back lash. Curious how this will end.
Aside from the Russia thing, I don't understand why the west is allied with Turkey. They are nutjob fundamentalists right? What was the US expecting them to do?. Also, war on ISIS with UAE and Saudi Arabia as your allies? really?
On December 02 2015 23:45 Rassy wrote: Putin says erdogan is personally involved in the oil trade with isis and that he can prove it and will present prove next week. Tbh I do not think that putin is bluffing here,this is quiet concerning and could have a serious back lash. Curious how this will end.
No it won't have consequences. Everybody in the west already knows that Erdogan supports Jihadists in Syria with weapons and logistical support (civil servants and journalists revealing stories have been put to prison over this). This isn't exactly news (well the oil thing is, but not the general support). The western prime directive is to get rid off Assad and no one cares how.
Nothing happened in the past and nothing will happen now
On December 02 2015 23:45 Rassy wrote: Putin says erdogan is personally involved in the oil trade with isis and that he can prove it and will present prove next week. Tbh I do not think that putin is bluffing here,this is quiet concerning and could have a serious back lash. Curious how this will end.
Aside from the Russia thing, I don't understand why the west is allied with Turkey. They are nutjob fundamentalists right? What was the US expecting them to do?. Also, war on ISIS with UAE and Saudi Arabia as your allies? really?
Turkey is important as a hub to the middle east where the west has strategic interests. Erdogan is a fundamentalist nutjob but no one in the west cares. We are doing business and are allied with countries where people get beheaded for witchcraft and black magic ffs (Saudi Arabia).
On December 02 2015 23:45 Rassy wrote: Putin says erdogan is personally involved in the oil trade with isis and that he can prove it and will present prove next week. Tbh I do not think that putin is bluffing here,this is quiet concerning and could have a serious back lash. Curious how this will end.
Aside from the Russia thing, I don't understand why the west is allied with Turkey. They are nutjob fundamentalists right? What was the US expecting them to do?. Also, war on ISIS with UAE and Saudi Arabia as your allies? really?
Not at the time they joined NATO though. Erdogan also wasn't bad when he started. Just the last years he's been getting way worse.
On December 02 2015 23:45 Rassy wrote: Putin says erdogan is personally involved in the oil trade with isis and that he can prove it and will present prove next week. Tbh I do not think that putin is bluffing here,this is quiet concerning and could have a serious back lash. Curious how this will end.
Aside from the Russia thing, I don't understand why the west is allied with Turkey. They are nutjob fundamentalists right? What was the US expecting them to do?. Also, war on ISIS with UAE and Saudi Arabia as your allies? really?
Turkey never used to be. Turkey used to be really, really secular. Like French levels of secular. And every time they were getting a little too Islamist the military would stage a coup in order to make the country more constitutional. It was a weird place. The more undemocratic it got the more we liked it.
Erdogan has devoted a lot of time to breaking the power of the military establishment and strengthening the civilian authorities. Normally we would say "good, that's as it should be" because a country in which the military can just depose the democratically elected government at will doesn't sound like a good place. But in Turkey the military were really into western secular moderate government and the government the people generally elected were less so. It's kinda a mess.
The Turkey of today is not the Turkey we let into NATO.
On December 02 2015 23:57 GoTuNk! wrote: Aside from the Russia thing, I don't understand why the west is allied with Turkey. They are nutjob fundamentalists right? What was the US expecting them to do?. Also, war on ISIS with UAE and Saudi Arabia as your allies? really?
Haha, not exactly. I do not think I am a nutjob fundamentalist
Actually I can easily say around 90% of people here in Turkey is quite unhappy where our Syrian policy ended up. We have more than 2 million Syrians, who are most probably permanent. Even many of Erdogan's supporters are saying "we should have really stayed out of this". But Erdogan and his prime minister Davutoglu is so much deep in this, they cannot get themselves out.
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/16t4iop.jpg)
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