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Please guys, stay on topic.
This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. |
there are some small demonstrations from extremist turk nationalists in which are people running around with images of Putin saying death to Putin or kill Putin; it's infantile.
there are larger demonstrations now because of this http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12022765/Top-human-rights-lawyer-shot-dead-in-Turkeys-restive-south-east.html A leading human rights lawyer was shot dead in Turkey’s restive southeast on Saturday as he was calling for a halt to violence in the Kurdish-majority city of Diyarbakir.
Tahir Elçi, head of the local bar association, died from a single gunshot wound in the head after attackers opened fire on a press conference. The assailants have yet to be identified.
The killing sparked protests in Istanbul, Ankara and Diyarbakir. In central Istanbul, police fired tear gas and water cannons at angry marchers who shouted "You can't kill us all", and "The state has to give an account."
Police also clashed with demonstrators in Diyarbakir, an AFP photographer said. ...In his last words recorded by journalists at the meeting, Elçi said: “We do not want guns, clashes or operations here,” condemning the damage recent fighting had caused to Diyarbakir’s historic Sur neighbourhood. The bar association has called his killing an “assassination”.
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On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from.
Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well.
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i'll strap on my tinfoil hat and say that Erdogan is being played. the plane downing, the lawyer killing ... Erdogan is shitting bricks; he can't blame everything on IS.
he pissed off US (Obama personally), Israel, Russia and then some. EU can't do shit with words and if US stays clear of this, NATO will do nothing for Turkey.
Edit: it is obvious that regular folk from both countries will be most affected by this.
i was trying to speculate more on the political side of things.
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this isnt all good for russia either. limiting tourism is hurting turkey more than russia but the other sanctions have potential to harm the russian economy a lot. the stricter controls on turkish goods will increase the prices and put even more inflationary pressure on the population and the ban on hireing turkish employees will likely hurt the russian efficency because people working in foreign countries are either more skilled or cheaper than the average population.
additionally russia already alienated europe and if they do the same with turkey their options on good trade agreements are really limited.
i doubt that there is any long term plan in motion and they just act irrationally on whatever matter comes up.
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On November 29 2015 22:12 Redox wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from. Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well.
Putin profit because he make the right decision more often than not.
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On November 29 2015 22:27 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 22:12 Redox wrote:On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from. Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well. Putin profit because he make the right decision more often than not.
Right in what sense?
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On November 29 2015 22:56 silynxer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 22:27 WhiteDog wrote:On November 29 2015 22:12 Redox wrote:On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from. Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well. Putin profit because he make the right decision more often than not. Right in what sense?
He does what's best for his country's interests, he foresaw a good part of what was to come, had a good analysis of the current sorry state of europe, and whatnot.
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On November 29 2015 22:59 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 22:56 silynxer wrote:On November 29 2015 22:27 WhiteDog wrote:On November 29 2015 22:12 Redox wrote:On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from. Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well. Putin profit because he make the right decision more often than not. Right in what sense? He does what's best for his country's interests, he foresaw a good part of what was to come, had a good analysis of the current sorry state of europe, and whatnot.
Can you link to some of his analysis of Europe (older pieces would be probably more interesting)?
This is not meant to be inflammatory but really out of interest in differing opinions: Do you think Putins actions in Ukraine are in the best interest of Russia?
I don't think I agree with you. It of course depends a bit on what you mean by his country's interest. Is it influence on the world stage or well-being of the Russian people? He deserves credit for creating some stability but the state of Russia is still very sorry and I don't see a real upswing. I know a lot of Russians here who, while being quite nationalistic and mostly agreeing with Putin, have no interest to ever return to Russia and will also talk about how the place is shit (not my words). Of course I can understand why someone would like to live in Germany over Russia from a purely materialistic point of view but I just don't see any optimism in the future of Russia.
It seems to me that what most Russians like about Putin is that he gave them back some dignity after the humiliation of the 90s. In itself this is not bad but, in my opinion, the way it was done contains some toxic elements that will have a negative impact on pretty much everyone (for example the way Russians deal with their own imperialistic past).
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On November 29 2015 23:43 silynxer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 22:59 WhiteDog wrote:On November 29 2015 22:56 silynxer wrote:On November 29 2015 22:27 WhiteDog wrote:On November 29 2015 22:12 Redox wrote:On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from. Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well. Putin profit because he make the right decision more often than not. Right in what sense? He does what's best for his country's interests, he foresaw a good part of what was to come, had a good analysis of the current sorry state of europe, and whatnot. This is not meant to be inflammatory but really out of interest in differing opinions: Do you think Putins actions in Ukraine are in the best interest of Russia?
The fact is that Russia has been crying for years about the expansion of NATO/Europe closer and closer to Russia (against NATO's promess). At some point, a violent reaction coming from Russia was bound to happen. Yeah it is in Russian's interest to prevent Europe and NATO that close to them, and everybody knows it (even the US high official, in some papers, knew that this kind of events would happen one day or another).
Is it a good behavior from Putin ? I don't know, and really I have no love for Putin, but he is not stupid and does not use event in his own interest, but rather play his cards for his country.
Can you link to some of his analysis of Europe (older pieces would be probably more interesting)?
I don't know, there are many
+ Show Spoiler +
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On November 29 2015 22:22 xM(Z wrote:
i'll strap on my tinfoil hat and say that Erdogan is being played. the plane downing, the lawyer killing ... Erdogan is shitting bricks; he can't blame everything on IS.
he pissed off US (Obama personally), Israel, Russia and then some. EU can't do shit with words and if US stays clear of this, NATO will do nothing for Turkey.
It seems more that he hoped that he'd get real support for his actions from the West, which essentially in kinder words told him that he fucked up terribly. While I'd call sanctions on tourism and exports highly disproportional just for shooting down a bomber, it's not disproportional for insisting that it was the right thing to do. The unlawful abuse is sadly a legacy of the corruption from the 90's; while there has been some significant progress in weeding out government corruption, the major effort to do so started only 5 years ago and there's a long way to go.
RT's estimate of the S-400's coverage of Syria:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/C6RLlmj.jpg)
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/323815-syria-s-400-us-airstrikes/
Wonder how the nearby nations that fall entirely into its range (Israel, Cyprus, Lebanon, Jordan) feel about this. It's a scary thought to think your own airspace isn't safe.
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To be fair, many countries in general (that aren't on the best terms, and beside one another) field anti-air systems that could, in theory, extend to airspace claimed outside of their country. I'm sure they're not thrilled, because strategically letting ANYONE have air control in a region isn't good if you want to do any operations whatsoever, but I don't think Russia is going to use this anti-air system to stop western air strikes, or otherwise escalate the issue. They're likely going to be using it as a way to force Turkey to stay away from Syria's and Russia's objectives in the region, IE: not intercepting them when they are air striking rebel outposts.
If Turkey hadn't shot down that bomber, they wouldn't have any reasonable excuse to field it, even with Syria's permission to do so. As you said, it extends over many countries, and nobody's okay with that. However, now that they have lost a multi-million dollar investment in the region, and a trained pilot, they can field this without much protest. It works out in the end for both Syria and Russia. Which isn't very good for Turkey, as this likely means the conflict will be prolonged, something nobody there, or in the west wants, due to the financial pressure we're about to receive from the already huge amount of refugees.
It certainly isn't going to make the situation any prettier.
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On November 30 2015 01:00 goiflin wrote:
To be fair, many countries in general (that aren't on the best terms, and beside one another) field anti-air systems that could, in theory, extend to airspace claimed outside of their country.
And apart from S-400 there are also Russian ships and of course aircraft in the region that can threaten Israel's or Turkey's airspace. Of course in the end Russian forces in the region are still inferior to the assets of both nations. And noone would want a war anyway. So I am not sure how much S-400 actually changes.
On a second thought, Israel did air strikes in Syria on weapon shipments to Hezbollah. Among that supposedly Yakhont anti-ship missiles that Syria bought from Russia. I wonder if Israeli strikes in Syria could be hindered now. But I also have a hard time imagining Russia would go so far and protect weapon shipments to Hezbollah by shooting Israeli aircraft.
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It's likely a more long-term commitment in the region, than their other deployments. It's much cheaper to leave a SAM system in the hands of the Syrian government once you leave the region, easier to train in it's use and have their forces use it effectively, than it is to leave a long term deployment of interceptors or warships. Also requires much less to maintain than those other assets, if they choose to scale back their commitment in the area.
I also haven't heard any news of which missiles are being deployed in the S-400 system in the region, so they may only be using the shorter range, older missiles. Not that they'd ever tell anyone which ones they're deploying, or tell the truth if they did.
Remember when people here thought this whole Syrian government would topple down in a couple of months and the rebels would take over, and us backing them would make everything better? It's such a long stretch from the situation we have now. It's awful.
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Putin just affirmed that Russia is working with Israel, why should they shoot their planes down? Assad has nothing to say in the matter.
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On November 29 2015 23:43 silynxer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 22:59 WhiteDog wrote:On November 29 2015 22:56 silynxer wrote:On November 29 2015 22:27 WhiteDog wrote:On November 29 2015 22:12 Redox wrote:On November 29 2015 21:01 xM(Z wrote:
Erdogan lost big time imo; he was caught with his pants down by this incident, he had no idea it will happen.
his immediate reaction was that he was right, that his military did what they did to defend their country so he was defiant. later, when some details came to light he started to be saddened by the event and said how the planes would have been warned differently if they knew they were Russia's.
i would not be surprised if Erdogan will try and find a scapegoat now, someone inside the airbase turkish jets took off from. Turkey loses out. I highly doubt Erdogan does. Just as Putin usually profits from real or imagined foreign threats Erdogan will as well. Putin profit because he make the right decision more often than not. Right in what sense? He does what's best for his country's interests, he foresaw a good part of what was to come, had a good analysis of the current sorry state of europe, and whatnot. Can you link to some of his analysis of Europe (older pieces would be probably more interesting)? This is not meant to be inflammatory but really out of interest in differing opinions: Do you think Putins actions in Ukraine are in the best interest of Russia? I don't think I agree with you. It of course depends a bit on what you mean by his country's interest. Is it influence on the world stage or well-being of the Russian people? He deserves credit for creating some stability but the state of Russia is still very sorry and I don't see a real upswing. I know a lot of Russians here who, while being quite nationalistic and mostly agreeing with Putin, have no interest to ever return to Russia and will also talk about how the place is shit (not my words). Of course I can understand why someone would like to live in Germany over Russia from a purely materialistic point of view but I just don't see any optimism in the future of Russia. It seems to me that what most Russians like about Putin is that he gave them back some dignity after the humiliation of the 90s. In itself this is not bad but, in my opinion, the way it was done contains some toxic elements that will have a negative impact on pretty much everyone (for example the way Russians deal with their own imperialistic past).
Long-term, the Ukraine stuff was definitely a plus for Russia as a country as well as Russians as people. Like it or not, Crimea has a very large Russian population which was marginalized in many ways by Ukrainean government. It also has important naval and military infrastructure that was built by Russians during Soviet days; giving it up to Ukraine makes little sense, especially with Ukraine basically cutting its ties with Russia in favor of NATO and the EU nowadays.
Saying that there is no real upswing in Russia is silly as just about every relevant metric for quality of life in Russia has been in an upward trend for nearly 20 years -- including GDP, purchasing power, healthcare and education accessibility, while just about every negative factor such as crime rates, unemployment, drug and alcohol use etc has been steadily going down. Russia has one of the best education systems in the world and has maintained its position as a world leader in sciences; their economy has been growing at a consistent pace since Putin came to power while reliance on natural resource exports is steadily declining. Taxes are low, incentives for small businesses are high and regional development has been a big thing in the last 10 years or so, to the point where Moscow isn't even always making top10 as the 'best city for ...' any more. It's really not that bad of a place to live nowadays, and their future prospects are actually better than those of most countries in the world as long as Putin puts in (ha ha, get it?) a good successor for himself.
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Can we stay on topic. If you want a thread on Russia create one instead of cluttering this one. I like to come here for news / discussions on Iraq / Syria
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On November 29 2015 23:43 silynxer wrote:
I know a lot of Russians here who, while being quite nationalistic and mostly agreeing with Putin, have no interest to ever return to Russia and will also talk about how the place is shit (not my words). Of course I can understand why someone would like to live in Germany over Russia from a purely materialistic point of view but I just don't see any optimism in the future of Russia.
Sampling bias. Most people who choose to leave their home country will have fewer good things to say about it, and in fact Russia is the second most popular country by number of immigrants (possibly only pre-Syrian crisis). Putin did a tremendous amount of good for the country internationally, economically, and in removing corruption, and that is objectively true if you compare Russia before and after Putin became president. There is a lot of criticism for him that is well-deserved, but a lot of it is caused by deep-seated issues in the Russian economy that have taken an extremely long time to solve properly that were very hard to appreciate in a more stable time.
I'll leave it at that, both since this isn't really the right place for it, and because it doesn't seem like you really have any desire to discuss, only to bash.
More of the same:
Turkey won’t apologize for shooting down a Russian jet fighter last week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Monday, arguing his country’s military was merely protecting its airspace against repeated violations.
Speaking at a news conference in Brussels after meeting with the secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Mr. Davutoglu said Turkey was ready for dialogue with Moscow “at any level” but defended his country’s actions.
“Protection of Turkish airspace, Turkish borders is a national duty, our military did its job” he said. “No country can ask us to apologize for doing our job.”
Relations between Ankara and Moscow have deteriorated rapidly since last Tuesday, when Turkey became the first NATO member in more than half a century to down a Russian jet.
Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-wont-apologize-for-shooting-down-russian-jet-prime-minister-ahmet-davutoglu-says-1448886331
Is there any strong political reason why apologies (or "expressing regret" in official terms) are so rare for political events, or is it just nationalistic/personal pride? I'm sure someone knows better than I do about that.
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+ Show Spoiler +On November 30 2015 23:09 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2015 23:43 silynxer wrote:
I know a lot of Russians here who, while being quite nationalistic and mostly agreeing with Putin, have no interest to ever return to Russia and will also talk about how the place is shit (not my words). Of course I can understand why someone would like to live in Germany over Russia from a purely materialistic point of view but I just don't see any optimism in the future of Russia. Sampling bias. Most people who choose to leave their home country will have fewer good things to say about it, and in fact Russia is the second most popular country by number of immigrants (possibly only pre-Syrian crisis). Putin did a tremendous amount of good for the country internationally, economically, and in removing corruption, and that is objectively true if you compare Russia before and after Putin became president. There is a lot of criticism for him that is well-deserved, but a lot of it is caused by deep-seated issues in the Russian economy that have taken an extremely long time to solve properly that were very hard to appreciate in a more stable time. I'll leave it at that, both since this isn't really the right place for it, and because it doesn't seem like you really have any desire to discuss, only to bash. More of the same: Show nested quote +Turkey won’t apologize for shooting down a Russian jet fighter last week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Monday, arguing his country’s military was merely protecting its airspace against repeated violations.
Speaking at a news conference in Brussels after meeting with the secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Mr. Davutoglu said Turkey was ready for dialogue with Moscow “at any level” but defended his country’s actions.
“Protection of Turkish airspace, Turkish borders is a national duty, our military did its job” he said. “No country can ask us to apologize for doing our job.”
Relations between Ankara and Moscow have deteriorated rapidly since last Tuesday, when Turkey became the first NATO member in more than half a century to down a Russian jet. Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-wont-apologize-for-shooting-down-russian-jet-prime-minister-ahmet-davutoglu-says-1448886331Is there any strong political reason why apologies (or "expressing regret" in official terms) are so rare for political events, or is it just nationalistic/personal pride? I'm sure someone knows better than I do about that.
Id' say an apology would look weak from the country issuing it, and leaders are most afraid of vocal critics within their own country. That is why they try so hard not to apologize, they don't want to alienate their base supporters (who see themselves as in the right).
I'd like to add that an apology would also mean that they would basically be "admitting" they are in the fault, and the opposing party could then pressure them for some "favors" and concessions.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/16t4iop.jpg)
