|
Please guys, stay on topic.
This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria. |
On November 25 2015 01:38 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 01:34 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:29 oneofthem wrote: it's fairly obvious that turkey was primarily dissatisfied with russian intervention in syria, not in turkey. this was just an opportunity to do some firefights. this provocative stance is no good.
as i said before, little dogs bark the loudest. So how did Turkey make that Russian pilot violate their airspace, despite clearly stating them that the next incursion would be met by force? Russia called their bluff and lost. this is like shooting down jay walkers after ignoring them forever. both disproportionate and disruptive. Its like shooting someone who repeatedly trespasses in your yard with a missile strapped to his back. It could be done more tactfully but international law allows it.
|
Conflicting reports on whether or not the pilots are alive, Reuters had a breaking news headline that Turkey claimed they were alive, yet they also have a picture sourced from Syrian rebels claiming to show one of the pilots, dead
|
On November 25 2015 01:42 Warfie wrote: Conflicting reports on whether or not the pilots are alive, Reuters had a breaking news headline that Turkey claimed they were alive, yet they also have a picture sourced from Syrian rebels claiming to show one of the pilots, dead Think by now it is confirmed both pilots were killed by rebels.
|
Oh, I didn't think about the many Russian tourists in Turkey. Turkey might have to do some major apologizing, or they won't come back next spring. Then again, Russian tourism has decreased a lot this year.
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On November 25 2015 01:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 01:38 oneofthem wrote:On November 25 2015 01:34 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:29 oneofthem wrote: it's fairly obvious that turkey was primarily dissatisfied with russian intervention in syria, not in turkey. this was just an opportunity to do some firefights. this provocative stance is no good.
as i said before, little dogs bark the loudest. So how did Turkey make that Russian pilot violate their airspace, despite clearly stating them that the next incursion would be met by force? Russia called their bluff and lost. this is like shooting down jay walkers after ignoring them forever. both disproportionate and disruptive. Its like shooting someone who repeatedly trespasses in your yard with a missile strapped to his back. It could be done more tactfully but international law allows it. it's like a staten island capo starting a fight when the heads of the families are trying to save some expenses
|
On November 25 2015 01:43 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 01:42 Warfie wrote: Conflicting reports on whether or not the pilots are alive, Reuters had a breaking news headline that Turkey claimed they were alive, yet they also have a picture sourced from Syrian rebels claiming to show one of the pilots, dead Think by now it is confirmed both pilots were killed by rebels. Right you are!
|
Pretty dumb move, but you can expect everything from Turkey with the islamist Erdogan in charge. We still don't know their position on ISIS and the war in Syria and Iraq. All they tried to do was to use the situation to solve their "Kurd problem".
I guess now "Turkish stream" is dead. Maybe time to revive "South stream" ?
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
anyway gonna fire up eu4 and capture constantinople as moscovy, then releasing into byzantium.
|
On November 24 2015 21:33 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2015 21:00 zeo wrote:On November 24 2015 18:57 Silvanel wrote: The question now is how will Russia respond? They cant resolve to only talking, that will make them look weak. And one thing Putin cant afford is looking weak. I am actually very curious what course of action will Russians take. Lets hope we wont enter escalation spiral. Its hard to know how the Russians will respond. Russian actions (diplomatic and military) are dictated by their interests. We don't really know the real relationship between Turkey and Russia but the key issue is the pipeline deal between the two countries, if its a done deal then it will just be a sharp protest by Russia, if its not then shit could go down. Also this could escalate into a diplomatic conflict between the US and Russia which plays into Turkish interests because they profit from playing both sides. The RuAF could simply see every plane not Russian within Syrian airspace as a threat and start shooting them down which would mean the NATO coalition leaving anti-ISIS operations in Syria. Of course, whatever the outcome Turkey has just kicked themselves out of any negotiations regarding Syria and France moves into a key role. In any case expect Putin to come out with a statement that Russia is committed to the fight against ISIS while Turkey is committed to helping them and they will probably shoot down a Turk plane just so everyone knows who's the boss. Seeing as how the Russian pilot was just executed by 'modarate' rebals Russia is going to be pissed. As for the 'we warned them 10 times' bullshit: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/7dTXZ5p.png) This is the flight path of the plane over Turkish airspace, all in all 2,4 km. If we take into account that the top speed of the Sukhoi is 1,315km/h, at top speed thats 6,5 sec in Turkish airspace but let just say it was around 8-10 sec. So in 10 sec Turkey contacted the plane and warned them 10 times and Erdogan himself gave the order to shoot it down? Really? This is a massive fuckup and it will have consequences... edit: You can't even finish the sentence warning them to leave the airspace in 10 seconds. Few things regarding the warning: 1.Turks might have started issue warnings while plane approched the border. 2.Its not likely plane was traveling at maximum speed. 3.It is possible that Russian plane didnt receive any warnings at all. Different frequencies/equipment etc. might have contributed to Russians not receiving a warning even if Turks did indeed send them. PS. To people thinking that shooting down nuclear superpower fighter plane for a few second violation of airspace is legitimate--->Thats playing with fire. Turkey is playing their cards banking on Russians not having guts/interests in escalation. Only time will tell if they if they will get burn.
Well turkey was spewing sone stuff about how 10 km from border was violation of airspace for jet powered aircraft, 5km for propaller, and 1 km for non fixed wings/helicopters. Though if this is just turkey making up some law out of our asses or iif it has some bases on international law I don't know. But yeah ussually you start warnings before they enter your airspace.
Thing is even if russian plane did enter turkish airspace, at the time of contact it was moving out of it as well. So why did the attack commence?
This is an unnecessary action taken with little gain and a huge risk. I'm not sure if you know about political climate in turkey but its quite the same redoric with most autocratic countries. Ergodan tries to paint a picture of absolute power both in and out of borders to his citizens, while (very very unsuccesfully) trying to juggle international relations. I'm pretty sure he still thinks he can have gains with situation in syria.
we as turkey been supporting rebels since the first firefight in syria. Once family friends, esad and erdogan, became nemesis'es overnight. For year there was a push for a "safe zone" that would eventually transform in to a turkish guaranteed turkmen habited zone. With direct and overt european interferance, came direct and overt russian and iranian interferance. Its obvious to everyone of us what ever plans erdogan had for the region is impossible now.
Thing is the turkey as a nation and I'm pretty some of the military branches (with heavy AKP'ification of military in last few years) do not really accept or realize this.
I wouldn't be suprised if this start with some neo-ottoman commander giving and order he does not understand the consequences of.
On November 24 2015 22:11 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2015 21:59 Maenander wrote: From all accounts it seems like the Turkish military only waited for a chance to down a Russian fighter.
Let's be realistic, no other NATO country would have shot down a Russian plane over a minor violation like that.
Seems like Erdogan is not amused that all of his schemes for Syria went to hell. In a way I think Putin and Erdogan are very much alike. Both strong leaders who are leading their country with a dictatorish streak. Its not about success or failure in Syria, its about intimidation and appearing strong. Russia has been pushing countries for years by violating airspace with fighters and bombers in northern Europe. They now tried to do it to someone who will not just sit back and be slightly annoyed. Turkey will hit back when confronted with a bully. If England started to repeatedly flying bombers over Russia do you think Putin would ignore it or do you think he would shoot one down at some point as well?
Well turkey is not know for standing up agains bullies... at least since 1950 (well maybe you can count the "peace operation" over cyprus, but that fire died of very fast) USA engaged a border station garrisoned by turkish troops in northen iraq (both allies in the conflict and as nato members) take them captive with same protocols used for enemy combatants, kepth them without any explanations, including a colonel, interogated them, and detained them for 3 days. The team that did this action was deployed in incirlik air base in turkey. there was very little backlash towards USA (it took them months to get a semi-official apology), and suprisingly little mention of the affair by goverment in turkey.
Erdogan woudl bark like mad dog, but I dont think this bite was under his control. That is why instead of barking even more at the moment, he is panicking.
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 25 2015 01:43 Maenander wrote: Oh, I didn't think about the many Russian tourists in Turkey. Turkey might have to do some major apologizing, or they won't come back next spring. Then again, Russian tourism has decreased a lot this year. Well that's an issue, but I'd think more about the pipeline that is currently in progress. I could see Bulgaria agreeing to break rank and support reviving South Stream, were the offer given to them. Economically, they do need it, even if the EU objects.
|
On November 25 2015 01:43 Maenander wrote: Oh, I didn't think about the many Russian tourists in Turkey. Turkey might have to do some major apologizing, or they won't come back next spring. Then again, Russian tourism has decreased a lot this year.
And soon after they apologized, we see hell freeze over.
On a more serious note: sad for the pilots and their families, but in all honesty: one didn't need to be able to actually see in the future to see that coming miles away. Russia enjoyed putting their hands in the lion cage, so to speak - they did that on several occasions, not just in turkey - this time they got bit.
Sucks for the pilots who just follow orders, but i don't really see the issue there. Ask yourself what would happen if north koreas jets would constantly violate or threaten to violate (that's what russia is doing all over europe) south koreas airspace.
And the worst part, you can't even check who's right. I wouldn't trust erdogans government to be honest, same goes for russia. So far i've seen a tweet of russia saying it never crossed the airspace, at any time - and a picture of the turkish flight radar tracking the SU, showing that indeed it did.
I'd bet alot of money that we as normal people will never hear the actual truth of that (because the only people who could prove it, like US intelligence, i trust even less).
That being said, turkey is/would be only correct in regards to international law. Morally, that was the single most retarded thing to do: shooting down a jet that possibly just bombed one of the worst terrorist groups that existed (if they did, that's another story entirely though).
|
So they shot the parachutists ? It's a act of war IIRC, that sounds bad...
|
On November 25 2015 02:23 Faust852 wrote: So they shot the parachutists ? It's a act of war IIRC, that sounds bad... Rebels shot the parachutes, they were already getting bombed by Russia, so they were already at war.
Maybe you meant it is a war crime following geneva convention... That would be true, but had to be expected.
|
It seems to be not that easy though, if you read up on who those rebels were (turkmen).
I'm not too fluent in the language russia and turkey are speaking, regarding "those rebels are not our soldiers", but there doesn't seem much difference between russian seperatists/soldiers in the ukraine, and those turkmens.
|
On November 25 2015 01:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 01:38 oneofthem wrote:On November 25 2015 01:34 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:29 oneofthem wrote: it's fairly obvious that turkey was primarily dissatisfied with russian intervention in syria, not in turkey. this was just an opportunity to do some firefights. this provocative stance is no good.
as i said before, little dogs bark the loudest. So how did Turkey make that Russian pilot violate their airspace, despite clearly stating them that the next incursion would be met by force? Russia called their bluff and lost. this is like shooting down jay walkers after ignoring them forever. both disproportionate and disruptive. Its like shooting someone who repeatedly trespasses in your yard with a missile strapped to his back. It could be done more tactfully but international law allows it. Going after and shooting at an aircraft that is still in your airspace is understandable if it doesn't want to leave.
But following an aircraft that was in your airspace for under 10sec into another country (many km away from your own border) and shooting it down is wrong whichever way you look at it. Do you think the US never violated Iran's airspace during their war in Iraq?
Turkey stands to lose billions just on the economic side. They have around 2 billion in exports of food to Russia, I read somewhere 5-6 billion dollars in construction contracts in Russia and the list goes on, also they import 15 billion dollars worth of goods from Russia. The Turkish lira has already dropped 20% against the dollar this year and already 1% after todays fiasco
|
Of course people will claim those rebels are funded and connected to Turkey, which isn't completely incorrect. But a bunch of rebels connected to Russia may have shot down a passenger plane not to long ago, so it will be a problematic claim to make.
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 25 2015 02:36 Plansix wrote: Of course people will claim those rebels are funded and connected to Turkey, which isn't completely incorrect. But a bunch of rebels connected to Russia may have shot down a passenger plane not to long ago, so it will be a problematic claim to make. Agreed. Turkey can only really be held liable for shooting down the Su, an act that even most who generally have no love for Russia do not support.
|
On November 25 2015 02:36 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 01:41 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:38 oneofthem wrote:On November 25 2015 01:34 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:29 oneofthem wrote: it's fairly obvious that turkey was primarily dissatisfied with russian intervention in syria, not in turkey. this was just an opportunity to do some firefights. this provocative stance is no good.
as i said before, little dogs bark the loudest. So how did Turkey make that Russian pilot violate their airspace, despite clearly stating them that the next incursion would be met by force? Russia called their bluff and lost. this is like shooting down jay walkers after ignoring them forever. both disproportionate and disruptive. Its like shooting someone who repeatedly trespasses in your yard with a missile strapped to his back. It could be done more tactfully but international law allows it. Going after and shooting at an aircraft that is still in your airspace is understandable if it doesn't want to leave. But following an aircraft that was in your airspace for under 10sec into another country (many km away from your own border) and shooting it down is wrong whichever way you look at it. Do you think the US never violated Iran's airspace during their war in Iraq? We don't know when Turkey engaged the Russian plane. They started warnings well before it reached the Turkish border so it is possible they engaged while it was in Turkish airspace.
As for your other comment. There was no need for the aircraft to enter Turkish space, It was warned repeatedly and following previous incidents Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador and told him the next incursion would be met with force.
If things transpired as Turkey claims then they were entirely within their right to shoot the plane down. The truth might come from another nations radar if they picked it up or else the fighters blackbox flight data. However if that shows Turkey in the right I ofc expect Russia to never release it.
|
On November 25 2015 02:53 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 02:36 zeo wrote:On November 25 2015 01:41 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:38 oneofthem wrote:On November 25 2015 01:34 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:29 oneofthem wrote: it's fairly obvious that turkey was primarily dissatisfied with russian intervention in syria, not in turkey. this was just an opportunity to do some firefights. this provocative stance is no good.
as i said before, little dogs bark the loudest. So how did Turkey make that Russian pilot violate their airspace, despite clearly stating them that the next incursion would be met by force? Russia called their bluff and lost. this is like shooting down jay walkers after ignoring them forever. both disproportionate and disruptive. Its like shooting someone who repeatedly trespasses in your yard with a missile strapped to his back. It could be done more tactfully but international law allows it. Going after and shooting at an aircraft that is still in your airspace is understandable if it doesn't want to leave. But following an aircraft that was in your airspace for under 10sec into another country (many km away from your own border) and shooting it down is wrong whichever way you look at it. Do you think the US never violated Iran's airspace during their war in Iraq? We don't know when Turkey engaged the Russian plane. They started warnings well before it reached the Turkish border so it is possible they engaged while it was in Turkish airspace. As for your other comment. There was no need for the aircraft to enter Turkish space, It was warned repeatedly and following previous incidents Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador and told him the next incursion would be met with force. If things transpired as Turkey claims then they were entirely within their right to shoot the plane down. The truth might come from another nations radar if they picked it up or else the fighters blackbox flight data. However if that shows Turkey in the right I ofc expect Russia to never release it. Maybe I should jog your memory a bit about some reactions when a Turkish aircraft was shot down for violating Syrian airspace: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18584872
Mr Erdogan spoke of Turkey's "rage" at the decision to shoot down the F-4 Phantom on 22 June and described Syria as a "clear and present threat". "A short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack," he said. The Turkish jet was on a training flight, testing Turkey's radars in the eastern Mediterranean, he said.
In a statement, the alliance's 28 members said the shooting down of the plane was "unacceptable" and they stood together with Turkey "in the spirit of strong solidarity". Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: "It is another example of the Syrian authorities' disregard for international norms. Nato allies will remain seized of developments." Earlier, in a letter to the UN Security Council, Turkey described the shooting down of its reconnaissance plane as a "hostile act" and "a serious threat to peace and security in the region".
|
On November 25 2015 01:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2015 01:38 oneofthem wrote:On November 25 2015 01:34 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2015 01:29 oneofthem wrote: it's fairly obvious that turkey was primarily dissatisfied with russian intervention in syria, not in turkey. this was just an opportunity to do some firefights. this provocative stance is no good.
as i said before, little dogs bark the loudest. So how did Turkey make that Russian pilot violate their airspace, despite clearly stating them that the next incursion would be met by force? Russia called their bluff and lost. this is like shooting down jay walkers after ignoring them forever. both disproportionate and disruptive. Its like shooting someone who repeatedly trespasses in your yard with a missile strapped to his back. It could be done more tactfully but international law allows it.
It's more like a confused grandpa running through the house without shorts again. Pretty awkward and you tell him that it's not socially acceptable, but you don't take him to the backyard and beat him up
|
|
|
|