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Thread is about the various issues surrounding Japan in the aftermath of the recent earthquake. Don't bring the shit side of the internet to the thread, and post with the realization that this thread is very important, and very real, to your fellow members.
Do not post speculative and unconfirmed news you saw on TV or anywhere else. Generally the more dramatic it sounds the less likely it's true. |
On March 14 2011 00:32 Blasterion wrote:
is it me or has the magnitude went up by .2 in these 3 days? (Thread name), Japan's engineering is very well done and that helped reduce alot of the casualties, Earthquakes and Tsunamis are no strangers to Japan after all.
It's good that they're prepared for something like this.
Yes, it was reclassified as a 9.0. So not just you.
And Japan is doing a great job, indeed.
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On March 14 2011 00:32 Keniji wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2011 00:09 doerit wrote:On March 14 2011 00:01 Maggeus wrote:On March 13 2011 23:30 TimeOut wrote:
I haven't the time to explain this more (sadly), but TimeOut is absolutely right. You don't have to know Nuclear Physics (as I do) to know that medias are totally overreacting because they don't understand what's happening. There can't be a lot of scenarii, and I don't see a bad ending happening as it is. I have to agree as well, I studied mechanical engineering for one year before I switched my major, therefore I am by no means a specialist, but I was able to do some research for one semester at the nuclear research reactor of our university and I had to write a paper on reactor types (Chernobyl obviously came up). How are you guys outside of Japan dealing with this whole situation? I am sitting in front of my laptop all day long, trying to get as much information as possible via different news channels/sites, but I just feel so damn helpless seeing what happens in Japan but not being able to do anything about it. Oh don't get me wrong. It wasn't meant to be offensive, I just wanted to know how reliable he is because I don't have any knowledge whatsoever. But even tho I know that media is (most likely) overreacting and we don't have a 2nd chernobyl, there is still alot between chernobyl and nothing harmful. It would be really interesting to here from a specialist what actually could still happen. (and by that I mean something more detailful than "not chernobyl") I mean they wouldn't evacuate the area if there wouldn't be any danger at all, right? And besides all the terrible things happening in Japan besides the nuclear plants it's still kinda logical that "foreign" newspapers concentrate on that alot because that's what could affect us in the most drastic way (as selfish as it sounds).
This article that was posted previously looks acurate and is very positive about it, compared to what the media is saying. I also don't have the knowledge to confirm it, but I haven't seen something this complete explaining a possible huge tragedy.
https://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/
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On March 14 2011 00:00 Ssoulle wrote:
Highly unlikely that anything "bad" will actually happen with these plants. Everyone who is worrying about a second Chernobyl need not be. Different style of power plant + different country managing it.
The only real problem will be the lack of power after the dust has settled. The 1st reactor was actually going to be decommissioned soon anyway, as it was the oldest. The 2nd and 3rd reactors are newer and Japan will need their energy output. A proper re-fit of a reactor can take 4-5 years.
reactor 3 has been operated with plutonium, which is much more dangerous than uranium, so even a comparable small leakage can couse significant havoc.
I am by no way an expert .. however i don't trust the belittlement driven here and in some media .. If this would be completely without any danger, why did they evacuate 170000 people ?
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On March 14 2011 00:43 Schnullerbacke13 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2011 00:00 Ssoulle wrote:
Highly unlikely that anything "bad" will actually happen with these plants. Everyone who is worrying about a second Chernobyl need not be. Different style of power plant + different country managing it.
The only real problem will be the lack of power after the dust has settled. The 1st reactor was actually going to be decommissioned soon anyway, as it was the oldest. The 2nd and 3rd reactors are newer and Japan will need their energy output. A proper re-fit of a reactor can take 4-5 years. reactor 3 has been operated with plutonium, which is much more dangerous than uranium, so even a comparable small leakage can couse significant havoc. I am by no way an expert .. however i don't trust the belittlement driven here and in some media .. If this would be completely without any danger, why did they evacuate 170000 people ?
Because standard safety procedures require them to evacuate, there is no reason not to be on the safe side. That doesn't mean they have things under control, it's really hard to tell with so little information. One thing is certain, the media is overreacting when comparing it to chernobyl, it may still be a big disaster, but while both sides may be overdoing it, i've seen more explanations as for why it may not be huge, than for as why it may be.
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They evacuated people because there is obviously a risk.
If the risk is not 0% exactly, if there was no evacuation, they would have been wrong. They simply chose the best solution. No more, no less.
Obviously, right now, the 0% risk doesn't not exist. But from the information I'm getting the state of the nuclear power-plant, the risk is a lot lower than before. If they continue to add sea-water, and if the pressure stabilizes or lowers, there won't be any huge environmental problems. Or maybe a lot less than I first feared.
The main problem is not really, or should I say only ? the meltdown, but is another possible hydrogen explosion. We'll just have to wait for more information about that. That's the only thing I want to see right now (about this problem... I don't even want to see another picture of desolation and destruction right now... é_è )
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N-TV just said earlier that it could be bigger than chernobyl then they proceeded to report the volcano report. I facepalmed and went back to TBS/NHK
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On March 14 2011 00:41 SKC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2011 00:32 Keniji wrote:On March 14 2011 00:09 doerit wrote:On March 14 2011 00:01 Maggeus wrote:On March 13 2011 23:30 TimeOut wrote:
I haven't the time to explain this more (sadly), but TimeOut is absolutely right. You don't have to know Nuclear Physics (as I do) to know that medias are totally overreacting because they don't understand what's happening. There can't be a lot of scenarii, and I don't see a bad ending happening as it is. I have to agree as well, I studied mechanical engineering for one year before I switched my major, therefore I am by no means a specialist, but I was able to do some research for one semester at the nuclear research reactor of our university and I had to write a paper on reactor types (Chernobyl obviously came up). How are you guys outside of Japan dealing with this whole situation? I am sitting in front of my laptop all day long, trying to get as much information as possible via different news channels/sites, but I just feel so damn helpless seeing what happens in Japan but not being able to do anything about it. Oh don't get me wrong. It wasn't meant to be offensive, I just wanted to know how reliable he is because I don't have any knowledge whatsoever. But even tho I know that media is (most likely) overreacting and we don't have a 2nd chernobyl, there is still alot between chernobyl and nothing harmful. It would be really interesting to here from a specialist what actually could still happen. (and by that I mean something more detailful than "not chernobyl") I mean they wouldn't evacuate the area if there wouldn't be any danger at all, right? And besides all the terrible things happening in Japan besides the nuclear plants it's still kinda logical that "foreign" newspapers concentrate on that alot because that's what could affect us in the most drastic way (as selfish as it sounds). This article that was posted previously looks acurate and is very positive about it, compared to what the media is saying. I also don't have the knowledge to confirm it, but I haven't seen something this complete explaining a possible huge tragedy. https://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/
I would'nt trust this article blindly either, though. Even without having a lot of knowledge it seems quite biased as well belittling the radiation levels and meltdowns in general. Furthermore the websites he recommends all are strongly in favor of nuclear power (see the following comment from the blog (in spoiler tag)):
+ Show Spoiler +Wulf C. Krueger says: March 13, 2011 at 10:24 pm Much has already been said about the author, his qualifications to talk about nuclear power plants as a food researcher and a supply chain management expert and the way even the very moderate press releases from Japan contradict his views. Let’s take a look at the websites he recommends: - http://www.world-nuclear-news.org: This site belongs to the “World Nuclear Association (WNA)”. So, what does Wikipedia tells us about it? “The World Nuclear Association (WNA), formerly the Uranium Institute, is an international organization that promotes nuclear power and supports the many companies that comprise the global nuclear industry.” [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Nuclear_Association] So, basically, a lobbying enterprise. And we are to expect *serious*, *unbiased* information about power plants and their safety from such an organisation? - http://bravenewclimate.com: Registered by Mr. Barry Brook from the University of Adelaide where he holds a professorship for “Climate Change & Sustainability”. As such, he’s not exactly likely to be an expert on nuclear power plants as such either. Furthermore, he’s a *strong* lobbyist for nuclear power as well but let his words speak for himself: “Fortunately, the world is passing them [Greenpeace & other environmentalists, Ed. note] by. Australia should too. It’s time to go nuclear green.” [http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/barry-brook-follow-britains-lead-on-nuclear-power/story-e6freo8c-1225796177006] To get a complete picture, read Greenpeace’s rebuttal to his article at http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/greenpeace-outlines-its-alternative-to-nuclear-energy/story-e6freo8c-1225796226672- http://ansnuclearcafe.org: This website belongs to American Nuclear Society (ANS), another lobbying organisation. Let’s cite Wikipedia again: “Its main objective is to promote the advancement of science and engineering relating to the atomic nucleus.” [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Nuclear_Society] Note the word “promote” – these guys *promote* nuclear power plants and that stuff. They’re (among other topics) in *marketing*. Do you *really*, *seriously* expect them to report anything *critical* on the very subject they’ve been marketing for more than 50 years? Really, this article maybe be nice and soothing, indeed, and give you a warm fuzzy feeling but even the websites the author recommends are made by nuclear power lobbyists. But the author doesn’t only recommend reading those but advises *not* to use *independent* sources (the media as a whole don’t profit nor suffer from nuclear energy). A really bad advice from an engineer/scientist. So, everyone who reads this should be *very* critical about the contents and make up his own mind and do his own research *and* check *different* media for their reports. Don’t just listen to Mr. Oehmen, don’t just listen to me either. Be critical, ask question, look into things yourself and whatever conclusion you come to, *never* rely on a single source.
Imho there won't be any major radiation leakage (as in concerning more than just Japan) either, but it is just quite hard to know what information is trustworthy right now
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don't wanna go offtopic but while we are seeing the consequences of one of the strongest earthquakes ever, this psycho gaddafi is killing the libyan people which stood up for democracy and freedom and no one cares..  wtf is going on..
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A cooling system pump has stopped at Tokai No. 2 Nuclear Power Plant in Ibaraki, Kyodo, according to area's fire department
-Reuters
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"1606: A pump within the cooling system of one of the reactors at the Tokai nuclear power plant has stopped working, according to the Kyodo news agency. The plant is located in the Naka district of the central prefecture of Ibaraki, and is operated by the Japan Atomic Power Company."
Oh god.
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On March 14 2011 00:55 Maggeus wrote:
They evacuated people because there is obviously a risk.
If the risk is not 0% exactly, if there was no evacuation, they would have been wrong. They simply chose the best solution. No more, no less.
Obviously, right now, the 0% risk doesn't not exist. But from the information I'm getting the state of the nuclear power-plant, the risk is a lot lower than before. If they continue to add sea-water, and if the pressure stabilizes or lowers, there won't be any huge environmental problems. Or maybe a lot less than I first feared.
The main problem is not really, or should I say only ? the meltdown, but is another possible hydrogen explosion. We'll just have to wait for more information about that. That's the only thing I want to see right now (about this problem... I don't even want to see another picture of desolation and destruction right now... é_è )
I am in the financial industry for +10 years and i have seen a lot of high degree mathematicans fail on the correct computation of risk (see LTCM crisis = nobel awarded mathematicans, financial crisis). Usually they isolate different factors and weight their risk to happen, then compute the overall risk by summing up. F.e. (simplified) if there are 2 security mechanisms, they tend to compute the risk of each to fail, then compute the risk of both to fail by chaining the individual risk of those 2 security mechanisms. However they don't cover the risk of events which destroy both security systems at once. Additional there is "Wes Brot ich ess, des Lied ich sing" ~ "I am singing the song of whoever pays my bill", so the mathematican computing the lowest risks will be rewarded.
Don't get me wrong, actually i am pro nuclear power for today, however i think nobody can tell wether the risk of a severe radiation pollution is 0,01% or 5% (which would be a lot!) and there is no point in belitteling the problems and risks of nuclear power. So I think mankind should not stop looking for better alternatives.
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According to the U.N. Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, health risks from Japan's nuclear power reactors seem fairly low and winds are likely to carry contamination out to the Pacific without threatening other nations.
-Reuters
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Waiiit wasn't there already a thread on the 8.9 earthquake or is this a new one? or was that one closed...
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On March 14 2011 01:14 Nub4ever wrote:
Waiiit wasn't there already a thread on the 8.9 earthquake or is this a new one? or was that one closed...
No, it was recalculated and it was 9.0, i guess.
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Same thread, magnitude was revised to 9.0
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On March 14 2011 01:13 fanta[Rn] wrote:
According to the U.N. Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, health risks from Japan's nuclear power reactors seem fairly low and winds are likely to carry contamination out to the Pacific without threatening other nations.
-Reuters
Winds change direction on occasion. Weather forecast have a hit rate of about 50-70% over 3 days ;-)
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reactor cooling in nuclear plant tokai also down ..
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On March 14 2011 01:24 Schnullerbacke13 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2011 01:13 fanta[Rn] wrote:
According to the U.N. Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, health risks from Japan's nuclear power reactors seem fairly low and winds are likely to carry contamination out to the Pacific without threatening other nations.
-Reuters Winds change direction on occasion. Weather forecast have a hit rate of about 50-70% over 3 days ;-)
It's not really a weather forecast thing. It's seems to be a fact that Japan mostly has winds coming from the west and going to the east...
At least that's what some meteorologists said on TV yesterday.
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EPT
