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Crisis in Japan - Page 97

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Thread is about the various issues surrounding Japan in the aftermath of the recent earthquake. Don't bring the shit side of the internet to the thread, and post with the realization that this thread is very important, and very real, to your fellow members.

Do not post speculative and unconfirmed news you saw on TV or anywhere else. Generally the more dramatic it sounds the less likely it's true.
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
March 13 2011 14:30 GMT
#1921
[image loading]
Convenient stores in Japan look like this at the moment.
TimeOut
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany1277 Posts
March 13 2011 14:30 GMT
#1922
On March 13 2011 22:47 Keniji wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2011 22:28 TimeOut wrote:
On March 13 2011 22:04 Alpina wrote:
Anyone knows what would happen if one of the reactors melts down? I mean how far radiation would go?



Most likely there will be no impact to the environment at all. I've said it multiple times in the thread already: The reactor types that we are talking about are a completely different design from those that were in use in Chernobyl. It is impossible for the same accident to occur in a BWR/X reactor.

The media is tearing this story apart like wolves right now. Most information, even if it is factually correct at times, is presented in a horrible and sometimes even deliberately misleading way.

Although I don't really want to use the term, because it doesn't mean what it actually means in the conception of the general public: Yes, there was at least a partial meltdown in multiple reactor cores due to decay heat.

That doesn't mean that the reactor is going to explode or that there is radiation all over the place. It does mean that the reactor core is heavily damaged and most likely beyond repair. Remember that the reactor has been shut down a long time ago. They are only dealing with decay heat right now.

Since they are filling the containment vessel with seawater, the reactor cores are already lost. It is correct that this is a "last ditch"-effort, because no matter what has happened before, it will irreparably destroy the reactor. That is a huge economic loss, no matter if the reactor was supposed to be shut down in March or not (we are talking about multiple billion dollar losses here).

What is incorrect, even though it is reported often in the media right now, is that there is danger of a runaway reaction, or that cooling the reactor with seawater leads to some sort of chain reaction. The control rods are in place. Even though there is at least partial core damage, the reactor is in a stable situation.

Edit 1:
On March 13 2011 22:22 yndi wrote:
Interesting article. Wonder how accurate this is.

https://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/


That's finally a good article and should be pretty accurate. I disagree with some assessments (especially the damage figure at the end), but overall that's pretty much correct.


Do you study atom physics (or whatever physics you need to study to understand what's going on)?
It's a serious question.

Where exactly did you get the information from that everything is stable? Well, or more precisely, do you believe everything japan/tecpo says right now? Or do you have other information sources?

Also you sound like a hard core business man / student because the only thing you mention is the financial aspect. As if that is any important at all right now (or at least shouldn't be) and nothing about any harm for the environment. Which most certainly even in worst case won't be as bad as chernobyl, but it's not really "nothing".


To answer your questions in order: No, I didn't study nuclear physics or a related field. My actual occupation is not related to anything with the problem at hand. You are obviously worried about the credibility of my statements, which is understandable but at the same time unnecessary. As soon as you are looking outside the shallow media reports, you will find the same sentiments echoed everywhere. The link above is a pretty good explanation as a starting point. I was also very interested in nuclear power and technology from a young age, probably because I was born so close to the Chernobyl disaster. The basic principles that I've listed in my post (construction differences between BWR/X reactors and RBMK reactors, salt-water cooling, actual effects of core damage, among others) are not that difficult that you need to study nuclear physics to understand them.

The information that the core is stable (which means that no further reaction is occurring) is related to the reactor type again, but has also been confirmed multiple times from various sources. Even normal media outlets are reporting that there was no problem with the initial shutdown and that the control rods are in place.

I'm more inclined to believe the actual press releases, statements and information from the Japanese government and TEPCO compared to the western media coverage, yes. For the most part the western media uses the same information and combines them with other (usually local) sources. Remember that the media depends on attention-grabbing headlines and articles, because that is their business. Compare some of the interviews and the article structure in the actual Spiegel article for example. Every interview is snipped together just that it matches the tone of the article that the author is going for.

TEPCO has nothing to gain from misleading the international community right now, especially with the IAEA watching.

My main information sources are the TEPCO press releases, the translated statements of the Japaneses government, useful articles by the scientific community (like the one that is linked above), posts by other people in other communities, personal sources, my own knowledge and understanding of the situation and finally the mass media to fill in any unlikely blanks.

I'm probably one of the most anti-capitalistic guys you will be able to find on this forum. My political alignment has nothing to do with the actual situation however. The financial aspect is important to mention, because that is one of the main driving points behind the methods that were used in the beginning to cool the reactor. These reactors are expensive and you don't want to lose them unnecessarily.

You are right, there are more pressing concerns in Japan right now. But the whole world is just focusing on these stupid nuclear power plants, which should be among Japan's and the world's least concern right now. To list some other points in no particular order: Food stocks, water and energy supply in the northern regions, the uncontrollable refinery fire that is still ongoing (this alone has already caused much more damage to the people and the environment than all the nuclear reactors together), possibility of disease outbreaks in the devastated areas, the constant breakdown of communication.
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
March 13 2011 14:38 GMT
#1923
According to our correspondent, Japanese authorities told the U.N. nuclear watchdog that the lowest state of emergency was reported by the operator at the Onagawa nuclear power plant.
"The alert was declared as a consequence of radioactivity readings exceeding allowed levels in the area surrounding the plant. Japanese authorities are investigating the source of radiation," the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement.
-Reuters
Zergneedsfood
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States10671 Posts
March 13 2011 14:58 GMT
#1924
There's been reports that estimated deaths will go up to 10,000.

I'm skeptical since I'm a bit confident in Japan's quick response to the crisis. But at the same time, I'm still really worried.
/人◕ ‿‿ ◕人\ Make a contract with me and join TLADT | Onodera isn't actually a girl, she's just a doormat you walk over to get to the girl. - Numy 2015
Ssoulle
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom149 Posts
March 13 2011 15:00 GMT
#1925
Highly unlikely that anything "bad" will actually happen with these plants. Everyone who is worrying about a second Chernobyl need not be. Different style of power plant + different country managing it.

The only real problem will be the lack of power after the dust has settled. The 1st reactor was actually going to be decommissioned soon anyway, as it was the oldest. The 2nd and 3rd reactors are newer and Japan will need their energy output. A proper re-fit of a reactor can take 4-5 years.
O.o
Maggeus
Profile Joined April 2010
France277 Posts
March 13 2011 15:01 GMT
#1926
On March 13 2011 23:30 TimeOut wrote:


I haven't the time to explain this more (sadly), but TimeOut is absolutely right.

You don't have to know Nuclear Physics (as I do) to know that medias are totally overreacting because they don't understand what's happening. There can't be a lot of scenarii, and I don't see a bad ending happening as it is.
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
March 13 2011 15:04 GMT
#1927
According to an official at Japan's Meteorological Agency, the wind over the Fukushima nuclear complex will keep blowing from the west overnight on Sunday, pushing any radioactivity toward the ocean.
-Reuters
GG_NO_RE
Profile Joined October 2009
Japan238 Posts
March 13 2011 15:08 GMT
#1928
On March 13 2011 23:58 Zergneedsfood wrote:
There's been reports that estimated deaths will go up to 10,000.

I'm skeptical since I'm a bit confident in Japan's quick response to the crisis. But at the same time, I'm still really worried.

but you underestimate how sudden the tsunami was. people were really caught off-guard. just look at any of the dozens of videos of entire roads of cars (still driving) being engulfed in the water
doerit
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany234 Posts
March 13 2011 15:09 GMT
#1929
On March 14 2011 00:01 Maggeus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2011 23:30 TimeOut wrote:


I haven't the time to explain this more (sadly), but TimeOut is absolutely right.

You don't have to know Nuclear Physics (as I do) to know that medias are totally overreacting because they don't understand what's happening. There can't be a lot of scenarii, and I don't see a bad ending happening as it is.


I have to agree as well, I studied mechanical engineering for one year before I switched my major, therefore I am by no means a specialist, but I was able to do some research for one semester at the nuclear research reactor of our university and I had to write a paper on reactor types (Chernobyl obviously came up).

How are you guys outside of Japan dealing with this whole situation? I am sitting in front of my laptop all day long, trying to get as much information as possible via different news channels/sites, but I just feel so damn helpless seeing what happens in Japan but not being able to do anything about it.
GG_NO_RE
Profile Joined October 2009
Japan238 Posts
March 13 2011 15:10 GMT
#1930
probably posted already, but NHK in English: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
March 13 2011 15:12 GMT
#1931
I'm also trying to get as much information as possible, I recommend watching this combo here:
http://www.ustwrap.info/multi/nhk-gtv::tbstv::yokosonews::nhk-world-tv

YokosoNews is doing a great job explaining Japanese news in English together with a co-host.
Asha
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom38257 Posts
March 13 2011 15:12 GMT
#1932
On March 13 2011 23:58 Zergneedsfood wrote:
There's been reports that estimated deaths will go up to 10,000.

I'm skeptical since I'm a bit confident in Japan's quick response to the crisis. But at the same time, I'm still really worried.


Sadly there are thousands of people missing from port towns along the coast. Regardless of advance warnings, good responses, and general populace education on what to do in the event of natural disaster, there's only so much you can do when an Earthquake and Tsunami are as big as the ones that hit
Marradron
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Netherlands1586 Posts
March 13 2011 15:22 GMT
#1933
On March 14 2011 00:12 Asha` wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2011 23:58 Zergneedsfood wrote:
There's been reports that estimated deaths will go up to 10,000.

I'm skeptical since I'm a bit confident in Japan's quick response to the crisis. But at the same time, I'm still really worried.


Sadly there are thousands of people missing from port towns along the coast. Regardless of advance warnings, good responses, and general populace education on what to do in the event of natural disaster, there's only so much you can do when an Earthquake and Tsunami are as big as the ones that hit


With the pictures on the internet of entire towns being washed away I cant imagine even a deathtol of 10k. Those people cant have gotten away in 10 minutes after the quake. I would be suprised if the deathtol is below 100k
Too_MuchZerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Finland2818 Posts
March 13 2011 15:23 GMT
#1934
Yle News
Finland's Crisis Management Centre on Sunday downgraded its level of preparedness to supply assistance to Japanese rescue efforts. On Saturday, close to 50 Finnish search and rescue experts were on standby and ready to leave for Japan, but according to the Centre's Director Jari Vaarnamo, it now looks unlikely that a request for assistance will be received.


I guess Japan gets help from neighboring countries first.
Vaeila
Profile Joined May 2010
Netherlands336 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-13 15:28:42
March 13 2011 15:25 GMT
#1935
On March 14 2011 00:23 Too_MuchZerg wrote:
Yle News
Show nested quote +
Finland's Crisis Management Centre on Sunday downgraded its level of preparedness to supply assistance to Japanese rescue efforts. On Saturday, close to 50 Finnish search and rescue experts were on standby and ready to leave for Japan, but according to the Centre's Director Jari Vaarnamo, it now looks unlikely that a request for assistance will be received.


I guess Japan gets help from neighboring countries first.


Japan wants minimal help, they want to show the world they can take care of themselves even in situations like these.

On March 14 2011 00:10 GG_NO_RE wrote:
probably posted already, but NHK in English: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv


That is recorded and thus old news. As of now Fuji TV has been the only one live broadcasting all the time
fanta[Rn]
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
Japan2465 Posts
March 13 2011 15:29 GMT
#1936
I think the reason Japan is not asking for help right away is because they have wasted a lot of food and blankets and whatnot in 1995 because they didn't know what exactly they need.
I think they're going to figure out the amount of damage and then ask for help if they cannot cope with it themselves.
Blasterion
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
China10272 Posts
March 13 2011 15:32 GMT
#1937
is it me or has the magnitude went up by .2 in these 3 days? (Thread name), Japan's engineering is very well done and that helped reduce alot of the casualties, Earthquakes and Tsunamis are no strangers to Japan after all.
It's good that they're prepared for something like this.
[TLNY]Mahjong Club Thread
Keniji
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands2569 Posts
March 13 2011 15:32 GMT
#1938
On March 14 2011 00:09 doerit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 14 2011 00:01 Maggeus wrote:
On March 13 2011 23:30 TimeOut wrote:


I haven't the time to explain this more (sadly), but TimeOut is absolutely right.

You don't have to know Nuclear Physics (as I do) to know that medias are totally overreacting because they don't understand what's happening. There can't be a lot of scenarii, and I don't see a bad ending happening as it is.


I have to agree as well, I studied mechanical engineering for one year before I switched my major, therefore I am by no means a specialist, but I was able to do some research for one semester at the nuclear research reactor of our university and I had to write a paper on reactor types (Chernobyl obviously came up).

How are you guys outside of Japan dealing with this whole situation? I am sitting in front of my laptop all day long, trying to get as much information as possible via different news channels/sites, but I just feel so damn helpless seeing what happens in Japan but not being able to do anything about it.


Oh don't get me wrong. It wasn't meant to be offensive, I just wanted to know how reliable he is because I don't have any knowledge whatsoever.

But even tho I know that media is (most likely) overreacting and we don't have a 2nd chernobyl, there is still alot between chernobyl and nothing harmful. It would be really interesting to here from a specialist what actually could still happen. (and by that I mean something more detailful than "not chernobyl") I mean they wouldn't evacuate the area if there wouldn't be any danger at all, right?

And besides all the terrible things happening in Japan besides the nuclear plants it's still kinda logical that "foreign" newspapers concentrate on that alot because that's what could affect us in the most drastic way (as selfish as it sounds).

Vaeila
Profile Joined May 2010
Netherlands336 Posts
March 13 2011 15:38 GMT
#1939
On March 14 2011 00:32 Blasterion wrote:
is it me or has the magnitude went up by .2 in these 3 days? (Thread name), Japan's engineering is very well done and that helped reduce alot of the casualties, Earthquakes and Tsunamis are no strangers to Japan after all.
It's good that they're prepared for something like this.


Initially it was 8.9, im not sure why some people reported is as an 8.8 (I geuss some news agencies have been reporting this). A few hours ago it was established to be a 9.0 rather than a 8.9.
doerit
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany234 Posts
March 13 2011 15:39 GMT
#1940
On March 14 2011 00:32 Keniji wrote:

But even tho I know that media is (most likely) overreacting and we don't have a 2nd chernobyl, there is still alot between chernobyl and nothing harmful. It would be really interesting to here from a specialist what actually could still happen. (and by that I mean something more detailful than "not chernobyl") I mean they wouldn't evacuate the area if there wouldn't be any danger at all, right?



I think the biggest problem concerning the nuclear power plant is that they can't be sure what is going to happen next. It would be irresponsible not to take precautionary measures and then an incident would occur. One problem seems to be that the control room is contaminated and engineers cannot work from there(but I am not sure if this is true, there has been so much false information lately).
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