EPT2009-2010 football (soccer) thread - Page 47
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28697 Posts
who crumbles under pressure, who slips when about to shoot, who hits the post, whether gk guesses the right side.. this is all more luck dependant than skill dependant. (slight exception to whether gk guesses the right side, you have examples of goalies going through thousands of penalties prior to an important game so they will know the tendencies of the players, but even then it's like, player shoots 65% to one side and 35% to the other side and the gk ends up being correct 2/3 times, whether that 1/3 is during the shootout or not is still dependant on luck.. ) you can find reasons why it's not "luck" dependant - like how english players genuinely have more pressure on them than players from any other european country because english media is more ruthless than other media, but this doesn't make them less skilled. if england had progressed from 2 of those 4 penalty shootouts, (or if you want to get really technical, 1 1/2 of those penalty shootouts as they also won one vs spain in 96 before they got knocked out by germany) then their record from the past 7 wc/ec's would be quite good.. if they had been like germany and always won it would have been awesome. don't get me wrong, I think england has, with very few exceptions (ec 96 being one), performed very badly compared to the skill of their players. now it seems like they have finally formed a team which is as good as their players. but their championship results during eriksson era for example, were not bad at all - they were unlucky either with draws (facing brazil) or losing penalty shootouts. | ||
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28697 Posts
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
England's total medal count in WC's and Euro's: 1 Gold. ... That's it. Now let's look at Italy's medal count: 5 Golds, 3 Silvers 1 Bronze. Get it? There is absolutely no way to blame the constant failures of England on luck. We can single out a ton of ''unlucky'' moments for Italy; Italy lost in penalty shootouts (from the top of my head) in 90, 98, 08 and in 2002 they were knocked out by retarded referees. But still they rack up an amazing amount of medals. Luck? | ||
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
On November 20 2009 02:32 Holgerius wrote: Ok, let's look at the big picture. England's total medal count in WC's and Euro's: 1 Gold. ... That's it. Now let's look at Italy's medal count: 5 Golds, 3 Silvers 1 Bronze. Get it? There is absolutely no way to blame the constant failures of England on luck. We can single out a ton of ''unlucky'' moments for Italy; Italy lost in penalty shootouts (from the top of my head) in 90, 98, 08 and in 2002 they were knocked out by retarded referees. But still they rack up an amazing amount of medals. Luck? Germany would be an even better example. They are so dominant in penalty shootouts. | ||
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28697 Posts
brazil is a team that has gotten its fair share, more likely unlucky than lucky spain has been unlucky netherlands has been unlucky england has been unlucky I dont have a clue about what happened before 1960 honestly, but it's not like uruguay is a greater football nation than england, however if you go based on WC trophies they are. football is a ridiculously luck dependant sport, that's even part of the beauty of it and part of why it's the most followed sport worldwide. (because you never know what is going to happen) it's not statistically unlikely for one nation to be consistently more unlucky than lucky over a stretch of 50 games, which is about the amount of championship games england has played since 96, in fact it's statistically likely that some teams will be lucky over this stretch and some will be unlucky. | ||
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28697 Posts
italy has 4 golds here, but two were gotten in 1934 and 1938, and these are hardly relevant because those world championships were nothing like the ones today. italy also won in 1982. in 1982 however, they BARELY qualified from the group stage, being second in the group with 3 points, behind poland, and beating cameroon because they had a 2-2 goal difference ahead of cameroons 1-1 goal difference. this is luck too. then in 2006, italy won again. guess how ; penalty shootout. in 1994, when italy got second, they got _third_ place in the group stage, behind both mexico and ireland, and barely edging out norway (same amount of points, once again italy with a 2-2 goal difference and norway having 1-1). them even emerging is certainly not a huge testament to their skill, one tiny difference and they'd be knocked out in group stage and their silver medal wouldve been a huge failure.. small differences hardly relating to skill could easily have had italy not winning anything since 1938: this would not have made them a worse team, just a team achieving worse results. | ||
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
And I said both WC's and Euro's. Italy does indeed have 5 Golds. 9 medals in total compared to 1 for England. When those ''small differences'' you talk about work in the advantage for some teams time and time again, and against others time and time again maybe you should start realizing it does indeed have a lot to do with skill. | ||
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
On November 20 2009 02:59 Liquid`Drone wrote: italy and germany are both examples of teams that have been lucky in championships brazil is a team that has gotten its fair share, more likely unlucky than lucky spain has been unlucky netherlands has been unlucky england has been unlucky I dont have a clue about what happened before 1960 honestly, but it's not like uruguay is a greater football nation than england, however if you go based on WC trophies they are. football is a ridiculously luck dependant sport, that's even part of the beauty of it and part of why it's the most followed sport worldwide. (because you never know what is going to happen) it's not statistically unlikely for one nation to be consistently more unlucky than lucky over a stretch of 50 games, which is about the amount of championship games england has played since 96, in fact it's statistically likely that some teams will be lucky over this stretch and some will be unlucky. Maybe you are right about Italy. But Germany?? Look at Germany's accomplishments in the Euro AND WC. A shitload of final/semi-final appearances with the occasional first place. Germany completely countered Netherlands's total football (Johan Cruyff)!! German is even more consistent than Brazil in large tournaments afaik. Can you really call this luck? | ||
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QuanticHawk
United States32081 Posts
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28697 Posts
On November 20 2009 03:28 Holgerius wrote: Argh, how blind can you be? So your view is that England are just consistently unlucky and Brazil, France, Italy and Germany are just consistently lucky? That is just bullcrap. England has never been the best football nation in the world, not even close to it. They have never had a single player that could be considered the best in the world at any given time, not even close to it. Blaming their constant failures on bad luck is wrong, and it's stupid. And I said both WC's and Euro's. Italy does indeed have 5 Golds. 9 medals in total compared to 1 for England. When those ''small differences'' you talk about work in the advantage for some teams time and time again, and against others time and time again maybe you should start realizing it does indeed have a lot to do with skill. i said brazil is if anything unlucky, not lucky, in that if the best team had always won, brazil would most likely have somewhere around 10 gold medals. and I never said that england has been better than italy. how about spain then? prior to EC 2008, their team had performed EVEN WORSE than england in tournaments if you look only at results.. you certainly cannot think that germany has had significantly better players than spain for the last 50 years? england has for the past 20 years been more unlucky than lucky, the only year where they won a penalty shootout (96), they also lost a penalty shootout but also ended up in the semi final. spain has been consistently unlucky, to a larger degree than england even. netherlands has been consistently unlucky and has played better than their results have indicated. italy and germany have both consistently overachieved resultwise - luck being a good part of the reason. nothing im saying here is very controversial really.. | ||
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zulu_nation8
China26351 Posts
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white_box921
United Kingdom967 Posts
edit: England sucks at penalty, fact. We need 5 Stuart Pearce to make themselves count (I know he missed the first time) and not someone like carragher who can't even do the only job he was sent on to do, score a bloody spot kick. | ||
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
I really don't get how you can say that Italy have been overachieving. Look at the World Cup winning teams and you will see that they were full of top top top players; Dino Zoff and Buffon are both candidates for the title best goalkeeper ever, Baresi and Scirea are both two of the best defenders of all time, Cannavaro has been the best defender in the world the last 10 years, Totti is one of the most talented players of his generation, etc. Italy has always been absolutely full of players that could be considered the best in the world and is without any doubt a much greater football nation than England. That is the truth. | ||
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Sadir
Vatican City State1176 Posts
do you know all this things by heart or did you look it up I mean e.g. all the knock outs from england since 96? and in WC and EC there is a shitload of luck involved honestly, you cannot doubt this but then again, there are tournament teams like Germany that always play at their best at WC and I think that has to do a lot with mentallity and the will to win I just can't imagine a german squad not fighting with everything they have until the very end....(EC finals 2008 doens't count  ) even when they are down 2 goalsthere are imo just some teams with winner mentallity, other teams lack | ||
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
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TheMusiC
United States1054 Posts
On November 20 2009 04:46 Holgerius wrote: Yes, Liquid`Drone, what you say is controversial; you make it sound like England and Italy (and Germany) are equally great and the only difference between them is luck. Italy and Germany alone have made up 7 out of the last 14 finalists. England 0. That is NOT due to just luck. What your entire previous post basically said was ''Hey look; Italy perform at their best when it really matters!''. I really don't get how you can say that Italy have been overachieving. Look at the World Cup winning teams and you will see that they were full of top top top players; Dino Zoff and Buffon are both candidates for the title best goalkeeper ever, Baresi and Scirea are both two of the best defenders of all time, Cannavaro has been the best defender in the world the last 10 years, Totti is one of the most talented players of his generation, etc. Italy has always been absolutely full of players that could be considered the best in the world and is without any doubt a much greater football nation than England. That is the truth. you can say that italy have not been overachieving, sure, but then you'd have to say that england have been massively, massively underachieving. lineup-wise they have certainly been up there with the best (it was that way in '06), and yes they have lost disappointingly in nearly every major tournament, but (in recent years at least) i don't think that's been as much of a problem with their players as it has been with coaching. the '06 WC starting XI was, on paper, one of the stronger sides in that WC (although they had little depth on the bench); that they performed so so poorly is amazing. i don't know if it's just your own bias or what, but england's players have certainly been top-tier; it's just that they, until recently, have performed much better for club than for country -- and you can say that about nearly every single top player they have (lampard, gerrard, terry, rio, rooney, etc etc). and michael owen having his career getting destroyed by injuries? THAT is unlucky. | ||
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
You seem to forget football is a team sport? That's one of the reasons Brazil had lost so many opportunities to get gold, not luck. | ||
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