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Personal attacks in this thread will draw a temp ban. |
I agree with some of that. Yet, people still make stupid statements like the guys discussing the end of Idra's career because it seemed appropriate for them to do so based on 2012s results. So we do not have to pretend that those opinions do not exist. They exist and they are what I argued against, or rather, the lack of foundation for those predictions.
as i said earlier, you should ignore the dumb and the trolls, you're just wasting energy
Looking at the record of a player is NOT science - and that is what I have been arguing the whole time. It is anecdotal evidence at best and not suited to derive valid predictions from. Whether looking at the most recent results is biased sampling or not is depending on a lot of things you seem to overlook. But you are not interested in actually learning something since you already "studied statistics in college" and therefore know how things work. Unfortunately you are completely insensitive towards the misuse of stats in many recent comments of fans, critics, casters and so on.
so why is idra's full record of 2012 biased sampling, enlighten me. also why is it biased if i look at every single other player's result of 2012.
i wonder where is the bias if we think in ourselves hmm idra's winrate is 20%, stephano's winrate is 70% in 2012. seems like idra is doing badly at the moment.
again my suspicion here is that it's "biased"- according to you- ONLY because it makes idra look bad. and you didn't really explain why it is biased. because of a stupid troll you generalize? you think that's clever? if yes, than this whole conversation is futile.
I am not saying that at all and I would gladly discuss reasons for bad results. However, with the "ideas" people bring to this discussion we cannot even get to a point where that is possible without bordering on the ridiculous. You holding it against me that I like Idra as a player and therefore being biased is somewhat of a cheap shot. I made it clear that I like him. When your last straw in this discussion is to refer to that to discredit my argumentation, then so be it.
you liking idra is only the root of the problem, the problem itself is you theorycrafting for thousands of characters to prove that people are looking at stats wrong that clearly say idra is doing badly. well it's only my guess that it is the root of this problem, but when you start theorycrafting like this in a different players' thread when he will be winning everything i'll reconsider that guess
Is that what you learned in college? What the hell did you study?
lol are you for real? what the hell do my stuides have to do with such a simple statistic that idra's win rate is 20% in 2012? exactly, nothing. idra is winning 1 game out of 5. you don't need to study anything for that you need to look at one of your hands and bend one of your fingers. you don't need any kind of education to understand that, just common sense, that you seem to lack a little. not adressing what i said, coated insult without any explanation, these are your weapons here. powerful arguments!
Data gathered a long time ago is not irrelevant when one accepts the idea that performance today and in the future, to a substantial degree, is influenced by similar, moderately stable player characteristics as performance in the past.
except that they're not stable at all, except that there are 1000 examples to prove you wrong and except that one doesn't necessarily accept that. thanks for the contribution
No one claims that perfect predictions are possible from that - I certainly don't. It is however silly to disregard such information as irrelevant. You say it is irrelevant only because you are incapable or unwilling to think about HOW it is relevant. The future is always difficult to predict, regardless of short-term or long-term and there is always prediction error.
i explained why it is irrelevant, you're in love with the idea that it is relevant, while i gave you 10 reasons why it isn't relevant and your only reason was "if one accepts blah blah nonsense". again, thanks for the contribution
I find it however fascinating that your solution to the problem is either
a) not making predictions ("...is impossible to predict") OR
b) ignoring information ("...is absolutely irrelevant").
Again, what did you study?
so your solution to the problem is
a) trying to make predictions when nobody ever in the history was reliably able to predict non-obvious long term stuff in starcraft with strange reasoning that's probably originated in trying to make idra seem good.
b) being in love with data that was 5 patches ago, when naniwa won an MLG with 4gate, when [insert random ridiculously outdated game related scenario that would have zero chance to work today]
so i don't know what you studied, but i can't make a non-insulting guess.
You again are not even getting what the problem is or which point I tried to get across.
you didn't really have a valid point so bummer.
I find it contradictory that you think it to be possible to calculate the lack of success, but not the success of a player. How is that possible? Other then that, I indeed hope that Idra will do well. But I don't see what that has to do with our discussion.
i didn't say anything about calculation, i said things aren't looking like that. these are just my personal thoughts, not even predictions. you know, if the sky is cloudy it's not impossible that it will rain.
anyways i think we won't get to an agreement so this is my last post about this here, people probably don't bother reading through this
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People are posting reasoned, well written posts about interesting topics. This fan club isn't for me anymore. I don't want to be part of a club that isn't littered with trolling and flamming. (sarcasm)
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What is that mad sick dubstep music in the commercials.
Name of track pls!
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On March 17 2012 05:36 msjakofsky wrote:anyways i think we won't get to an agreement so this is my last post about this here, people probably don't bother reading through this
If there is something that we can agree on, then it would be this.
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Does anyone have a link to idras rock playlist? I really love it!
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On March 17 2012 06:12 captainobvious wrote:
Does anyone have a link to idras rock playlist? I really love it!
I think just uses the regular search engine on grooveshark and keeps the songs he likes on his playlist. I know that's what he did for his dubstep playlist at least.
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On March 17 2012 06:12 captainobvious wrote:
Does anyone have a link to idras rock playlist? I really love it!
Go on pandora and put down one of the songs you here. Idk what he has in there exactly, but you'll get similar results.
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On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text.
Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell.
Lennon comparison is so crazy. The only one better than those is the Artosis one imo.
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You can't access Pandora out of the US, unless you use a proxy, I guess.
Seems like there's no stream tonight 
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On March 17 2012 06:29 Mr Showtime wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text. Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell.
nothing good for you maybe, people like to exchange opinions if it's in a cultured way and related to idra then why the hell do you even care? you have to scroll once more with your mouse and it's exhausting? i don't think everyone ever got banned for writing a long post and i hope it won't happen any time- that is if it makes sense of course.
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On March 17 2012 06:41 msjakofsky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2012 06:29 Mr Showtime wrote:On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text. Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell. nothing good for you maybe, people like to exchange opinions if it's in a cultured way and related to idra then why the hell do you even care? you have to scroll once more with your mouse and it's exhausting? i don't think everyone ever got banned for writing a long post and i hope it won't happen any time- that is if it makes sense of course.
I wasn't really serious. But most of them are stupid arguments filled with nonsensical whining banter. I know they aren't all like that.
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On March 17 2012 06:41 msjakofsky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2012 06:29 Mr Showtime wrote:On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text. Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell. nothing good for you maybe, people like to exchange opinions if it's in a cultured way and related to idra then why the hell do you even care? you have to scroll once more with your mouse and it's exhausting? i don't think everyone ever got banned for writing a long post and i hope it won't happen any time- that is if it makes sense of course.
Yes, but honestly the last few posts of the two of you were argumentative and not really advancing the discussion. So when those posts are long it's annoying to read.
For what it's worth, I don't think vlkv's posts have any value, since after rereading his posts multiple times I still have no idea who he is talking about when he mentions the abuse of statistics.
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On March 17 2012 06:41 msjakofsky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2012 06:29 Mr Showtime wrote:On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text. Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell. nothing good for you maybe, people like to exchange opinions if it's in a cultured way and related to idra then why the hell do you even care? you have to scroll once more with your mouse and it's exhausting? i don't think everyone ever got banned for writing a long post and i hope it won't happen any time- that is if it makes sense of course.
I think they should be discouraged just because most of the time they don't serve a purpose. Usually people arguing on TL don't want to hear the opinions of others as much as they want to spread their own opinion. Also long posts are usually 80% filler and 20% content (or maybe 75/25). And long posts in the idra fanclub are either about balance or about idras mentality, and they end with nothing being determined.
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On March 17 2012 06:50 Grumbels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2012 06:41 msjakofsky wrote:On March 17 2012 06:29 Mr Showtime wrote:On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text. Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell. nothing good for you maybe, people like to exchange opinions if it's in a cultured way and related to idra then why the hell do you even care? you have to scroll once more with your mouse and it's exhausting? i don't think everyone ever got banned for writing a long post and i hope it won't happen any time- that is if it makes sense of course. Yes, but honestly the last few posts of the two of you were argumentative and not really advancing the discussion. So when those posts are long it's annoying to read. For what it's worth, I don't think vlkv's posts have any value, since after rereading his posts multiple times I still have no idea who he is talking about when he mentions the abuse of statistics.
hmm well i only replied like 3 times? sorry they have been too long but since i was replying to parts of his text i didn't spoiler the quotes. but anyways i'm finished, since i too have no idea what abuse or bias he is talking about.
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A couple observations on the statistics debate:
I do not believe that Elo calculations are time sensitive, so, for those wanting to take a longer view of Idra's performance, the TLPD Elo score should reflect his past triumphs, as well as his more recent shortcomings. If a player is playing exceedingly strong competition then his Elo won't fall that much as a result of losses, or at least will fall far less than if he loses to competition with relatively low Elo scores.
In my view, the most telling data point about any player's performance at a given moment in time is what odds that player has of taking a particular match up or tournament, when those odds are determined by the betting public. Once money is involved, expectations regarding the success or failure of a player become much, much more realistic. I used to bet a lot on MMA and sites that had betting lines established by fans' bets (where no real money was wagered) were always way out of whack with Vegas's lines and easily exploitable. That is, you could clean up by assuming that the Vegas line was correct and betting accordingly, which is evidence that the Vegas line, which is established by gamblers who are risking real money, is more accurate.
I don't believe that gambling sites currently cover SC2, although I know they existed at least in Korean for BW, since there were scandals related to match fixing. Despite the match fixing risk, I would like to see some gambling sites start covering SC2; personally, I like knowing who the betting public believes the "best" player is.
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rofl, was that the Idra fanclub that was open in another tab at the end of the EG MC VOD? Love how he just silently close the tab before rounding up 
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eh i think casting for idra is great, it forces him to open up his mind about all strats so he can play more adaptedly to different strategies, which we have undoubtedly witnessed from his recent streaming sessions. and ofc he provide the most logical and objective way of thinking and casting, which is great!
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On March 17 2012 06:51 MrDudeMan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2012 06:41 msjakofsky wrote:On March 17 2012 06:29 Mr Showtime wrote:On March 17 2012 05:22 VashTS wrote:This was missed between annoying walls of text. Seriously. "Walls of text will draw a temp ban" should be added to the thread note as well. Nothing good comes out of them and they are annoying as hell. nothing good for you maybe, people like to exchange opinions if it's in a cultured way and related to idra then why the hell do you even care? you have to scroll once more with your mouse and it's exhausting? i don't think everyone ever got banned for writing a long post and i hope it won't happen any time- that is if it makes sense of course. I think they should be discouraged just because most of the time they don't serve a purpose. Usually people arguing on TL don't want to hear the opinions of others as much as they want to spread their own opinion. Also long posts are usually 80% filler and 20% content (or maybe 75/25). And long posts in the idra fanclub are either about balance or about idras mentality, and they end with nothing being determined.
This is what I was getting at. Thank you.
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IdrA went 30 - 6 on the ladder yesterday.
He must really like green.
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On March 17 2012 08:44 Antimatterz wrote:
IdrA went 30 - 6 on the ladder yesterday.
He must really like green.
What was streamed i believe was 16-1, pretty impressive
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EPT
