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On January 16 2016 07:21 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On January 16 2016 04:07 Acritter wrote:
LGD is insanely legit right now, mostly on the back of both Sylar and MMY being amazing with heroes that are good in the patch. MMY in particular has always been a monster of an aggressive support player, and I love watching his ES and Lion in action. Hoping to see more of his goodness, although I fully expect that PPD will first ban ES every game without hesitation. LGD is Top-15 in the World, but I don't think they're getting past EG. They got past "Day 1 EG" by grabbing two team fights, with a draft that scaled much better into the late-game. LGD was quite behind until that Roshan Pit fight. (And that's the actual meta this Tournament: DO NOT ROSH (unless you have at least 2 Heroes dead on the other side). LGD looked better in the Qualifiers than they have in the recent China tournaments, but the only team they've beaten that's assuredly above them in ranking is that EG match. They got wrecked in those Chinese tournaments by the top teams. But they have a chance to show us they've improved. As for the draft, it's not Earth Spirit but Dark Seer that'll get the first ban, if EG has first pick. Dark Seer, Earth Spirit, Bounty Hunter, Morphling and Terrorblade are the likely ban targets from ppd. Disruptor if they grab one of those in the first phase of picks. Ppd has also established a large chunk of heroes that need to be target banned by rOtk already in the tournament, so he goes in with a drafting advantage. I'm curious how much ppd does think about the way he lays out his draft ideas for the group stages. Because he's done this at least at TI and Frankfurt, where he establishes a very large hero pool, making target bans very difficult. So far this tournament in 7 games, the heroes played count stands at: Arteezy 4, Fear 4, ppd 5, Sumail 7, Universe 6. The only hero that didn't "work" was Sumail's Sand King, though I think that was just a bad pick.
I'm not so sure about EG having to ban DS. Universe is still godly on the hero, even if he hates playing it, and so PPD can play chicken with the hero. That's a tried and true drafting strategy for him, and has gotten him wins against top-quality team after top-quality team. Similarly, EG most often suffers from the other team having excellent playmaking aggressive supports, which disrupt the generally EG-favored laning stage and shift the balance of teamfights very uncomfortably. This is why their key ban against CDEC in TI5 was Tusk and their key ban against VP at The Summit was Spirit Breaker. Many, many high-tier teams use aggressive support play to clear incredible amounts of space, and PPD hugely weakens those teams by target banning those specific supports. Add in the fact that EG doesn't have an Earth Spirit player, and I think it's fairly straightforward that it's going to be their first ban in every situation, because it's no secret that their chances of winning are going way down if the hero ever enters the game.
Getting past EG is a monumental challenge for LGD, but that's not a comment on them. It's a comment on EG being probably the single most consistently powerful team in the past two years. If LGD loses, it's not going to be a real black mark on them.
And I agree about the no-rosh meta, with a single caveat: the entire reason for that being the case is that teams aren't running as much antiarmor. A TA/Slardar draft would still be able to take Rosh before the other team could blink, and as such would be able to secure it as safely and greedily as people used to. It's a classic example of people not understanding why something is the case and making poor judgments on account of it, which pervades every human endeavor.
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fear plays earth spirit...? arguably better than pld, though probably obv below mmy and jerax-tier, but still good enough to block-pick it
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On January 16 2016 07:37 emperorchampion wrote:
I don't think Sand King was a bad pick, he still managed to put in a decent amount of work. Game could have been a lot different if SK didn't get first blooded and use his mango, also I think he wanted SK vs brood lane. Sumail has said that it's one of the heros he likes playing so there must be some legitimacy to it.
Obviously I'm biased, but I think the best player of the tourney so far has been Sumail. The diversity he's shown with his hero pool, and playing in all 3 lanes is pretty incredible.
Hoping for some good games tomorrow!!
How good Sumail is on Sand King is irrespective of the high possibility that it's not that viable of a hero in 6.86 at the moment. (It seems like it probably needs too much gold to come online right now, compared to the speed other offlaners do.) That was my point.
On January 16 2016 10:27 Acritter wrote:Show nested quote +On January 16 2016 07:21 Taf the Ghost wrote:On January 16 2016 04:07 Acritter wrote:
LGD is insanely legit right now, mostly on the back of both Sylar and MMY being amazing with heroes that are good in the patch. MMY in particular has always been a monster of an aggressive support player, and I love watching his ES and Lion in action. Hoping to see more of his goodness, although I fully expect that PPD will first ban ES every game without hesitation. LGD is Top-15 in the World, but I don't think they're getting past EG. They got past "Day 1 EG" by grabbing two team fights, with a draft that scaled much better into the late-game. LGD was quite behind until that Roshan Pit fight. (And that's the actual meta this Tournament: DO NOT ROSH (unless you have at least 2 Heroes dead on the other side). LGD looked better in the Qualifiers than they have in the recent China tournaments, but the only team they've beaten that's assuredly above them in ranking is that EG match. They got wrecked in those Chinese tournaments by the top teams. But they have a chance to show us they've improved. As for the draft, it's not Earth Spirit but Dark Seer that'll get the first ban, if EG has first pick. Dark Seer, Earth Spirit, Bounty Hunter, Morphling and Terrorblade are the likely ban targets from ppd. Disruptor if they grab one of those in the first phase of picks. Ppd has also established a large chunk of heroes that need to be target banned by rOtk already in the tournament, so he goes in with a drafting advantage. I'm curious how much ppd does think about the way he lays out his draft ideas for the group stages. Because he's done this at least at TI and Frankfurt, where he establishes a very large hero pool, making target bans very difficult. So far this tournament in 7 games, the heroes played count stands at: Arteezy 4, Fear 4, ppd 5, Sumail 7, Universe 6. The only hero that didn't "work" was Sumail's Sand King, though I think that was just a bad pick. I'm not so sure about EG having to ban DS. Universe is still godly on the hero, even if he hates playing it, and so PPD can play chicken with the hero. That's a tried and true drafting strategy for him, and has gotten him wins against top-quality team after top-quality team. Similarly, EG most often suffers from the other team having excellent playmaking aggressive supports, which disrupt the generally EG-favored laning stage and shift the balance of teamfights very uncomfortably. This is why their key ban against CDEC in TI5 was Tusk and their key ban against VP at The Summit was Spirit Breaker. Many, many high-tier teams use aggressive support play to clear incredible amounts of space, and PPD hugely weakens those teams by target banning those specific supports. Add in the fact that EG doesn't have an Earth Spirit player, and I think it's fairly straightforward that it's going to be their first ban in every situation, because it's no secret that their chances of winning are going way down if the hero ever enters the game. Getting past EG is a monumental challenge for LGD, but that's not a comment on them. It's a comment on EG being probably the single most consistently powerful team in the past two years. If LGD loses, it's not going to be a real black mark on them. And I agree about the no-rosh meta, with a single caveat: the entire reason for that being the case is that teams aren't running as much antiarmor. A TA/Slardar draft would still be able to take Rosh before the other team could blink, and as such would be able to secure it as safely and greedily as people used to. It's a classic example of people not understanding why something is the case and making poor judgments on account of it, which pervades every human endeavor.
Fear played a mighty fine Earth Spirit. It's not Jerax's level (and he seems the best on the Hero right now), but Fear played it well enough to force the ban from another team.
But I reason I talked about the Dark Seer ban wasn't about Universe. It's about rOtk. Take a look. ppd loves his targeted "How you initiate your Team Fight" bans. That's Dark Seer with LGD this patch. (H/t to Nahaz for this point.) Both Alliance and Fnatic banned it against LGD. They're 10-0 with rOtk on DS, but 16-10 without it.
On the "Don't go Rosh" meta, it's also what we're seeing with the rest of the team-fighting Meta right now. Most especially since all of the Supports go Aether Lens and no one builds a Medallion. So Rosh is slower and everyone is running with a lot more initiation to jump into the Pit. Especially with something like Earth Spirit and what it can do at the Roshan Pit.
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Let me be a little more clear on the DS: I'm not saying it's unworthy of a first-phase ban, but that it's not first ban material. Universe's DS is renowned enough that PPD can use it to start off a series by playing chicken with LGD, and that sort of thing is totally his bag, baby. Second ban? Certainly. Not banned at all? Possibly, if he's feeling super-confident either in Universe or his entire team. But first ban? I really doubt it. Leading off by saying "we're scared enough of a hero that one of our players is legendary for that we're going to ban it before anything else" is a quick way to lose drafting initiative. Don't underrate the importance of mind games.
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On January 16 2016 10:33 SpiritoftheTunA wrote:
fear plays earth spirit...? arguably better than pld, though probably obv below mmy and jerax-tier, but still good enough to block-pick it at summit 4 ppd mentioned that fear was a dirty earth spirit picker
and fear said he wanted earth spirit added to CM cause it's a fun pos 4 hero
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On January 16 2016 07:37 emperorchampion wrote:
I don't think Sand King was a bad pick, he still managed to put in a decent amount of work. Game could have been a lot different if SK didn't get first blooded and use his mango, also I think he wanted SK vs brood lane. Sumail has said that it's one of the heros he likes playing so there must be some legitimacy to it.
Obviously I'm biased, but I think the best player of the tourney so far has been Sumail. The diversity he's shown with his hero pool, and playing in all 3 lanes is pretty incredible.
Hoping for some good games tomorrow!!
I think Sumail is EG most important player and putting him not mid is a problem induced by RTZ's recruitment. In theory it's always good to have a player like RTZ in your team, in practice if it means putting Sumail safelane or offlane it weakens the team. Just my opinion :p
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On January 16 2016 10:27 Acritter wrote:
Getting past EG is a monumental challenge for LGD, but that's not a comment on them. It's a comment on EG being probably the single most consistently powerful team in the past two years. If LGD loses, it's not going to be a real black mark on them.
No need to go that high. PPD's team has lost plenty of times to other top Western teams.
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On January 16 2016 14:09 Azarkon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 16 2016 10:27 Acritter wrote:
Getting past EG is a monumental challenge for LGD, but that's not a comment on them. It's a comment on EG being probably the single most consistently powerful team in the past two years. If LGD loses, it's not going to be a real black mark on them.
No need to go that high. PPD's team has lost plenty of times to other top Western teams.
wait are you downplaying eg's strength to make lgd look worse if they lose
is that whats happening
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I mean it must be, because it just doesn't make sense otherwise
Winning against a top team means you're at the very least good, but losing to them really doesn't mean much of anything
Only way losing makes a difference is if you lose consistently to really bad teams (random losses don't really count in this game)
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Wait what half the draft is already complete
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On January 16 2016 11:07 Acritter wrote:
Let me be a little more clear on the DS: I'm not saying it's unworthy of a first-phase ban, but that it's not first ban material. Universe's DS is renowned enough that PPD can use it to start off a series by playing chicken with LGD, and that sort of thing is totally his bag, baby. Second ban? Certainly. Not banned at all? Possibly, if he's feeling super-confident either in Universe or his entire team. But first ban? I really doubt it. Leading off by saying "we're scared enough of a hero that one of our players is legendary for that we're going to ban it before anything else" is a quick way to lose drafting initiative. Don't underrate the importance of mind games.
Well, I ended up being right.  But the logic wasn't a Respect Ban, like when you have a Meepo or Huskar or Broodmother player in 6.85. Dark Seer was how rOtk was setting up much of what LGD wanted to do. That's why you ban it, as it takes away LGD's major winning strategy. Dark Seer + Earth Spirit were how LGD wanted to play, so ppd was going to pull that away from them.
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EPT
