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Close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades. The logical fallacy is in saying "these factors increase the chances of winning." Yeah but by how much? The debate is absolutely impossible to answer. There's no data involved. There have been a few losses, but those are outliers. Statistically, you ignore those. You can't use them as the foundation for an argument. You especially cannot use them as indicators that the Korean SC scene is stagnating in skill. That's an incredible statement to make. And statistically speaking, foreigners have been crushed over and over again. That's the only thing for sure. The factors inControl bring up are about as reliable as predicting the weather. Sure, air pressure/humidity/cold front movement can be indicative of things, but actually using that to make a guess? Sorry, there's just not enough to work with their.
A win is a win is a win. And when it comes down to it, I don't see the foreigner scene taking wins off THREE top level pros from Korea. One, yes. Two, in a worst case scenario for Korea. But knocking out all three?? I still haven't seen any factors that suggest that would happen. Saying the chances of it have increased is optimistic at best and facetious at worst. If I want to win the lottery and this year I buy a few more tickets, does it mean my chances of winning have gone up? Yes, they have. Does it mean I can loudly proclaim from the rooftops, "this year, I am very likely to be a millionaire!" Not really. Personally, I'd say the factors do not have that significant of an impact.
What WOULD convince me that the foreigner scene stands a chance is if I got to see real games of Korean pros vs top-level foreigners and the foreigners started winning. That's real, solid evidence of where the foreigners stand. Any other argument is nothing but theory-craft of the most whimsical sort.
p.s. To talk about Flash though, Go.Go just beat him in a solid drawn out game in the PL the other day. Flash didn't look at all happy about that. In fact, he's lost twice in TvT lately. His TvZ and TvP are monstrous though. Especially vP
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iNcontroL
USA29055 Posts
On May 23 2008 13:33 EGoldman wrote:
Close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades. The logical fallacy is in saying "these factors increase the chances of winning." Yeah but by how much? The debate is absolutely impossible to answer. There's no data involved. There have been a few losses, but those are outliers. Statistically, you ignore those. You can't use them as the foundation for an argument. You especially cannot use them as indicators that the Korean SC scene is stagnating in skill. That's an incredible statement to make. And statistically speaking, foreigners have been crushed over and over again. That's the only thing for sure. The factors inControl bring up are about as reliable as predicting the weather. Sure, air pressure/humidity/cold front movement can be indicative of things, but actually using that to make a guess? Sorry, there's just not enough to work with their.
A win is a win is a win. And when it comes down to it, I don't see the foreigner scene taking wins off THREE top level pros from Korea. One, yes. Two, in a worst case scenario for Korea. But knocking out all three?? I still haven't seen any factors that suggest that would happen. Saying the chances of it have increased is optimistic at best and facetious at worst. If I want to win the lottery and this year I buy a few more tickets, does it mean my chances of winning have gone up? Yes, they have. Does it mean I can loudly proclaim from the rooftops, "this year, I am very likely to be a millionaire!" Not really. Personally, I'd say the factors do not have that significant of an impact.
What WOULD convince me that the foreigner scene stands a chance is if I got to see real games of Korean pros vs top-level foreigners and the foreigners started winning. That's real, solid evidence of where the foreigners stand. Any other argument is nothing but theory-craft of the most whimsical sort.
p.s. To talk about Flash though, Go.Go just beat him in a solid drawn out game in the PL the other day. Flash didn't look at all happy about that. In fact, he's lost twice in TvT lately. His TvZ and TvP are monstrous though. Especially vP
Hey  My name is "I already said that." At the beginning of my original post I said that the purpose was to have a discussion Not to have a statistical argument. Since those are boring. But hey, I'd like to invite you to engage the discussion like you have without the first part where you ignore what has already been said and do a schpeal on something completely unnecessary.
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I could agree that 2 out of 3 will be non Norean, around a 40 percent chance. But not the 1st place, I don't think anybody will beat a Korean in the Finals. With their tournament experience and game mastery.
I also disagree that this would be SC:BW last year.
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again the point is... the whole WCG is a pretty big touny with tons good player from all around world with intense group round and cruel elimination round. however the korean has ALWAYS made it out of their group and to the very top VERY year for 7-8 years in a row? fluke? i dont think so! how often do u see a player (or a specific nation) win an event 8 times in a row?
therefore, i dont think the skill lvl is any where near been "close"
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Yep we have one year of lan latency on high lvl gaming in the foreign scene. But the koreans have a tradition of lan latency that can't be overthrown by one year of lan latency practice, and this year of practice is still not on the same lvl as the korean who has had a better practice scen for years and years.
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Everybody's apparently forgetting there were two foreigners in the top 3 last year. Saviour lost to (androide) I think and Hwasin(or the other korean player, think it was Hwasin though)... Well.. I can't even remember who destroyed him. I don't know much about Korea but I do know they are very honourable people and I honestly doubt any of them would throw games (especially to foreigners). So why did they lose? Both Saviour and Hwasin made it through to the point where they were playing Bo3. So you can't really call it luck, can you.
The point being, stop being so negative, We can and will claim victory in what could possibly be the last BW at the WCG ever. Reckon it'd be a good closer.
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Well as Incontrol's observations may seem to be correct, Korean pro-gamers are still on a different level they still practice 10+ hours a day every day as their job, they still have nerves of steel when playing infront of large amounts of crowds when it really counts. The gap may be getting closer but its my opinion that Korean's as long as there will be SCBW in wcg (for however long that is) will take home the gold. Ive been watching the TSL along side Proleague, MSL and OSL and as much as I like the TSL and the games it has been producing they just aren't up to par with the Korean pro-scene. This is not to say that it is impossible for a foreigner to take gold because Korean WCG > WCG Grand Final (I don't think anyone can argue this statement) and if the top players don't make it to the Grand final because they got cheesed or whatever it is possible for Korea to send a much weaker line up which gives foreigners a much much greater opportunity to win. But I think it is safe to say that if Korea sends Flash, Jaedong, Bisu to the Grand Finals in top shape a foreigner has very very smalll chance of winning.
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iNcontroL
USA29055 Posts
On May 24 2008 21:35 SayTT wrote:
Yep we have one year of lan latency on high lvl gaming in the foreign scene. But the koreans have a tradition of lan latency that can't be overthrown by one year of lan latency practice, and this year of practice is still not on the same lvl as the korean who has had a better practice scen for years and years.
non unique. They have always had that tradition and we have a year under our belt whereas in years previous we have had nothing close to a full year. The unique factor is what we are discussing. I grow tired of explaining this.
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iNcontroL
USA29055 Posts
On May 24 2008 22:04 Pellucidity wrote:
Everybody's apparently forgetting there were two foreigners in the top 3 last year. Saviour lost to (androide) I think and Hwasin(or the other korean player, think it was Hwasin though)... Well.. I can't even remember who destroyed him. I don't know much about Korea but I do know they are very honourable people and I honestly doubt any of them would throw games (especially to foreigners). So why did they lose? Both Saviour and Hwasin made it through to the point where they were playing Bo3. So you can't really call it luck, can you.
The point being, stop being so negative, We can and will claim victory in what could possibly be the last BW at the WCG ever. Reckon it'd be a good closer.
savior lost to pj and hwasin lost to stork
They did throw games and it was to try and make the brackets in favor of 3 koreans in the top 3.
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GoRush lost to G5's who was using scouts
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On May 25 2008 01:43 {88}iNcontroL wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2008 21:35 SayTT wrote:
Yep we have one year of lan latency on high lvl gaming in the foreign scene. But the koreans have a tradition of lan latency that can't be overthrown by one year of lan latency practice, and this year of practice is still not on the same lvl as the korean who has had a better practice scen for years and years. non unique. They have always had that tradition and we have a year under our belt whereas in years previous we have had nothing close to a full year. The unique factor is what we are discussing. I grow tired of explaining this.
Maybe people keep missing your point because this "we have access to LAN games now!" argument you put so much emphasis on will ultimately have minimal effect on the winner of the tournament. I can see your logic of "if it was possible to beat Korean progamers without LAN, we'll be sure to trump them now", but seriously, counting the last 3 years, only two progamers were eliminated by a foreigners out of 9 participations.
Wishful-thinking being put aside, exposure to LAN environment gaming alone won't raise the chances of Koreans being eliminated by foreigner up by much. Minimizing the level of skill will be far more important, and unfortunately for the competition, it still is quite significant. So much so Korean progamers often have the luxury of deliberately losing in group stages to suit their own purposes. Maybe last year's WCG has proven that Korean progamers can no longer get away with "fixing" the brackets (yes, I agree that it is very disrespectful), but you're greatly mistaken if you think some LAN games are going to put you on an even footing with these guys.
Put it another way. Lets say you take three WCG Korea representatives in a courage tournament. Whatever the disadvantages these gamers have (not knowing their opponent, being overly-confident etc), the advantage they have (difference in skill and experience) will be more than enough to make them extremely heavy favourites to win the entire tournament. They will most likely lose some games, and one or two might be eliminated. But not all three. I don't think the level of gamers participating in this year's WCG is that much higher. It's not going to happen this year. Sorry.
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iNcontroL
USA29055 Posts
On May 25 2008 17:18 Letmelose wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2008 01:43 {88}iNcontroL wrote:On May 24 2008 21:35 SayTT wrote:
Yep we have one year of lan latency on high lvl gaming in the foreign scene. But the koreans have a tradition of lan latency that can't be overthrown by one year of lan latency practice, and this year of practice is still not on the same lvl as the korean who has had a better practice scen for years and years. non unique. They have always had that tradition and we have a year under our belt whereas in years previous we have had nothing close to a full year. The unique factor is what we are discussing. I grow tired of explaining this. Maybe people keep missing your point because this "we have access to LAN games now!" argument you put so much emphasis on will ultimately have minimal effect on the winner of the tournament. I can see your logic of "if it was possible to beat Korean progamers without LAN, we'll be sure to trump them now", but seriously, counting the last 3 years, only two progamers were eliminated by a foreigners out of 9 participations. Wishful-thinking being put aside, exposure to LAN environment gaming alone won't raise the chances of Koreans being eliminated by foreigner up by much. Minimizing the level of skill will be far more important, and unfortunately for the competition, it still is quite significant. So much so Korean progamers often have the luxury of deliberately losing in group stages to suit their own purposes. Maybe last year's WCG has proven that Korean progamers can no longer get away with "fixing" the brackets (yes, I agree that it is very disrespectful), but you're greatly mistaken if you think some LAN games are going to put you on an even footing with these guys. Put it another way. Lets say you take three WCG Korea representatives in a courage tournament. Whatever the disadvantages these gamers have (not knowing their opponent, being overly-confident etc), the advantage they have (difference in skill and experience) will be more than enough to make them extremely heavy favourites to win the entire tournament. They will most likely lose some games, and one or two might be eliminated. But not all three. I don't think the level of gamers participating in this year's WCG is that much higher. It's not going to happen this year. Sorry.
Stating "the effect will be minimal" is not a statement of truth. That is an assertion backed by nothing. In fact your logic for that claim was to explain a different factor and how you think it is more important. Your smoke and mirrors has failed my friend. I'd explain why LAN latency is an important factor but I already did that.
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Cockiness can be taken advantage of. Also, situations/builds that progamers are not used to fighting could work well.
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On May 26 2008 00:05 {88}iNcontroL wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2008 17:18 Letmelose wrote:On May 25 2008 01:43 {88}iNcontroL wrote:On May 24 2008 21:35 SayTT wrote:
Yep we have one year of lan latency on high lvl gaming in the foreign scene. But the koreans have a tradition of lan latency that can't be overthrown by one year of lan latency practice, and this year of practice is still not on the same lvl as the korean who has had a better practice scen for years and years. non unique. They have always had that tradition and we have a year under our belt whereas in years previous we have had nothing close to a full year. The unique factor is what we are discussing. I grow tired of explaining this. Maybe people keep missing your point because this "we have access to LAN games now!" argument you put so much emphasis on will ultimately have minimal effect on the winner of the tournament. I can see your logic of "if it was possible to beat Korean progamers without LAN, we'll be sure to trump them now", but seriously, counting the last 3 years, only two progamers were eliminated by a foreigners out of 9 participations. Wishful-thinking being put aside, exposure to LAN environment gaming alone won't raise the chances of Koreans being eliminated by foreigner up by much. Minimizing the level of skill will be far more important, and unfortunately for the competition, it still is quite significant. So much so Korean progamers often have the luxury of deliberately losing in group stages to suit their own purposes. Maybe last year's WCG has proven that Korean progamers can no longer get away with "fixing" the brackets (yes, I agree that it is very disrespectful), but you're greatly mistaken if you think some LAN games are going to put you on an even footing with these guys. Put it another way. Lets say you take three WCG Korea representatives in a courage tournament. Whatever the disadvantages these gamers have (not knowing their opponent, being overly-confident etc), the advantage they have (difference in skill and experience) will be more than enough to make them extremely heavy favourites to win the entire tournament. They will most likely lose some games, and one or two might be eliminated. But not all three. I don't think the level of gamers participating in this year's WCG is that much higher. It's not going to happen this year. Sorry. Stating "the effect will be minimal" is not a statement of truth. That is an assertion backed by nothing. In fact your logic for that claim was to explain a different factor and how you think it is more important. Your smoke and mirrors has failed my friend. I'd explain why LAN latency is an important factor but I already did that.
Sorry to stomp on your enthusiasm and all, but maybe you're overestimating the level of gaming outside of Korea regarding starcraft. It's a ten year old game and obviously there are great players around the world, and it's great for you guys that you finally have access to LAN games. But I shit you not when I say that no amount of LAN games are going to help you reach the level of gaming that the best of Korea has reached. Not in this short span of time.
As I see it, there are no players outside of Korea who can seriously compete with top progamers. Yes amateurs do take the odd games off top progamers, but we're talking about a non-Korean gamer winning the WCG here. You talk as if top foreign gamers are more or less even in skill with the likes of Jaedong and Flash and just need some "incentive" to mass game on LAN and then we're set. The way I see it, top foreign gamers do have the ability to win the odd game against them under certain circumstances, but NOTHING besides the actual increase of skill is going to help you if you're seriously considering to overcome them all in the tournament.
But that's just my opinion as a spectator. Prove me wrong this year. It'll send shockwaves all around. WCG needs to spice up anyhow.
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iNcontroL
USA29055 Posts
On May 26 2008 01:04 Letmelose wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2008 00:05 {88}iNcontroL wrote:On May 25 2008 17:18 Letmelose wrote:On May 25 2008 01:43 {88}iNcontroL wrote:On May 24 2008 21:35 SayTT wrote:
Yep we have one year of lan latency on high lvl gaming in the foreign scene. But the koreans have a tradition of lan latency that can't be overthrown by one year of lan latency practice, and this year of practice is still not on the same lvl as the korean who has had a better practice scen for years and years. non unique. They have always had that tradition and we have a year under our belt whereas in years previous we have had nothing close to a full year. The unique factor is what we are discussing. I grow tired of explaining this. Maybe people keep missing your point because this "we have access to LAN games now!" argument you put so much emphasis on will ultimately have minimal effect on the winner of the tournament. I can see your logic of "if it was possible to beat Korean progamers without LAN, we'll be sure to trump them now", but seriously, counting the last 3 years, only two progamers were eliminated by a foreigners out of 9 participations. Wishful-thinking being put aside, exposure to LAN environment gaming alone won't raise the chances of Koreans being eliminated by foreigner up by much. Minimizing the level of skill will be far more important, and unfortunately for the competition, it still is quite significant. So much so Korean progamers often have the luxury of deliberately losing in group stages to suit their own purposes. Maybe last year's WCG has proven that Korean progamers can no longer get away with "fixing" the brackets (yes, I agree that it is very disrespectful), but you're greatly mistaken if you think some LAN games are going to put you on an even footing with these guys. Put it another way. Lets say you take three WCG Korea representatives in a courage tournament. Whatever the disadvantages these gamers have (not knowing their opponent, being overly-confident etc), the advantage they have (difference in skill and experience) will be more than enough to make them extremely heavy favourites to win the entire tournament. They will most likely lose some games, and one or two might be eliminated. But not all three. I don't think the level of gamers participating in this year's WCG is that much higher. It's not going to happen this year. Sorry. Stating "the effect will be minimal" is not a statement of truth. That is an assertion backed by nothing. In fact your logic for that claim was to explain a different factor and how you think it is more important. Your smoke and mirrors has failed my friend. I'd explain why LAN latency is an important factor but I already did that. Sorry to stomp on your enthusiasm and all, but maybe you're overestimating the level of gaming outside of Korea regarding starcraft. It's a ten year old game and obviously there are great players around the world, and it's great for you guys that you finally have access to LAN games. But I shit you not when I say that no amount of LAN games are going to help you reach the level of gaming that the best of Korea has reached. Not in this short span of time. As I see it, there are no players outside of Korea who can seriously compete with top progamers. Yes amateurs do take the odd games off top progamers, but we're talking about a non-Korean gamer winning the WCG here. You talk as if top foreign gamers are more or less even in skill with the likes of Jaedong and Flash and just need some "incentive" to mass game on LAN and then we're set. The way I see it, top foreign gamers do have the ability to win the odd game against them under certain circumstances, but NOTHING besides the actual increase of skill is going to help you if you're seriously considering to overcome them all in the tournament. But that's just my opinion as a spectator. Prove me wrong this year. It'll send shockwaves all around. WCG needs to spice up anyhow.
I stopped reading when I got to "I shit you not" then you went on to explain that non koreans are still worse than professional koreans. Dude.. you are so outside of what we are discussing ti hurts. I am done trying to goad you into participating. If you think this was an argument for why non-koreans are magically as good or better than the pros you have some serious reading comprehension issues.
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I'm sorry. I just fail to understand how you can put a serious claim on your predictions if the differences in skill is going to be a non-factor in this discussion. Maybe you're more interested in the factors going for foreigners this year. I'm not. I think those are a non-issue if we're going to have a serious discussion on the possibility of a foreigner winning this year's WCG. You obviously think otherwise, I can see that.
You predict a foreigner winning the WCG this year. You state that LAN latency will be a major factor in deciding the winner of this year's WCG. I just posted to check if you had more to add to your argument because I really don't like the odds of your predictions if that's all you have to say.
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Netherlands4511 Posts
I don't think foreigners will really have a shot at wcg. Once you play a progamer you realise they are on a level you can't even imagine. Maybe Mondragon can beat a P, and Draco can kill some terrans, but if they send the best of the best I don't think we have a chance. Professionals > people playing for ufn.
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It depends heavily on who they send. Savior had already been on a slump last year, so it wasn't such a shock that he lost, especially since 2 years ago he was close to losing too IIRC. Stork won, even tho he "lost" 3 games to white-ra. And Hwasin was Hwasin.
Now if they send Savior, Stork and Nada for example this year, we might see foreigners in the top 3. If they send Flash Mind and Jaedong, they will rape everyone and finish top 3 easily. But chances are they won't, so yay for non-koreans.
Edit: I'm not ignoring the LAN thing, but I don't think it will matter too much. The main difference here is obviously skill and practice. And koreeans still own at that... I think that any 3 people from the power rank would kill @ WCG. We'll see.
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EPT
