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A Bold and Speculative WCG Prediction - Page 9

Forum Index > Closed
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iNcontroL *
Profile Blog Joined July 2004
USA29055 Posts
May 28 2008 07:48 GMT
#161
nah I just like cussing
Rekrul
Profile Blog Joined November 2002
Korea (South)17174 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-28 08:24:06
May 28 2008 08:23 GMT
#162
Incontrol I don't lack anything that you said I lack. You are in no position to say I lack anything as I am the number one authority white man when it comes to korean progamers and their skill levels...while you...we'll you're a box macroer. Maybe Smuft is on par with me though he's been gone for a while so he has some catching up to do. I am fully aware of the recent latency changes and how it effects the game for foreigners as well.


WOW Rekrul! Thanks dude. That was fucking deep. You also flat didnt understand my leveling of play in korea and construed it as "well that means they are all nadas now." No. It means they dont have a real super weapon except the growing Flash phenomenon. It means in their WCG a fucking mid level pro can take out one of the "big guns" and go to WCG when he is not nearly as complete of a player as a Flash, Jaedong, Bisu etc. Even if you disagree with this you have to say more than "I think that means they are all gud." That again goes under the NO SHIT catagory.


What else is there to argue? Nearly as complete of a player? What more evidence should I present than Ï think that means they are all gud." ??? That's all I got and thats all I need. If you want I could write a long post about why the koreans are still a million times better than the foreigners, but thats not necessary as everyone here knows it (except you apparently). Any mid level pro that knocks out Bisu Flash or Jaedong has 10x the skill they need to walk over any foreigner easily despite how sloppy or 'incomplete' you may think they are. If you don't believe me look at ret's post. He said very quickly and bluntly that you're wrong about how the foreigners chances have been effected. If one of the very gosus you were talking about that gives foreigners a bigger chance is disagreeing with you...how can you continue to talk? It's absolute nonsense.

Anyways, I agree with you on all your points of why the foreigners chances are raised, but I'm saying the rise in chances is very minimal, from like say 8% chance of a foreigner winning WCG going to 10% chance of a foreigner winning WCG this year. The way you formed your post you made it seem like they went from an 8% chance to a 30% chance of winning WCG which is absolutely ridiculous. Thats all I'm trying to say.

BTW the Nony comment was a joke, I know he's good, no need to get all riled when I jab at one of your friends, little one.
why so 진지해?
mdb
Profile Blog Joined February 2003
Bulgaria4059 Posts
May 28 2008 08:31 GMT
#163
Havent read the thread, but regarding the lan-latency. If this was true I guess here : http://www.iccup.com/iccladder/1x1/ , there would have been more than two foreigners.
Ancestral
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
United States3230 Posts
May 28 2008 16:02 GMT
#164
Although many of the players debating here are far better than I, in fact several are foreign gosus, I feel like some of them that foreigners aren't going to take this WCG. In fact, there's only one name that stands a chance I think, and that chance is 100%.

+ Show Spoiler +
Are you sure you want to know?+ Show Spoiler +
This will blow your mind.+ Show Spoiler +
Actually, it's the obvious answer...+ Show Spoiler +
See if you can guess!?+ Show Spoiler +
Kang Min
The Nature and purpose of the martial way are universal; all selfish desires must be roasted in the tempering fires of hard training. - Masutatsu Oyama
FConnectionUK *
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
United States316 Posts
May 28 2008 16:15 GMT
#165
On May 28 2008 16:30 {88}iNcontroL wrote:


FCUK


FCUK w00t w00t!
SC:BW - NrG.fCuk // SC2 - NrGGuN
anotak
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States1537 Posts
May 28 2008 17:38 GMT
#166
There will always be naysayers.
darktreb
Profile Joined May 2007
United States3019 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-29 05:26:47
May 29 2008 05:22 GMT
#167
InControl, while you bring up some good points, I do agree with Rekrul that you are making it seem like the chance of foreigners has gone up a ton. That isn't the point you're trying to make, but if you're trying to get other people to understand your point, the onus is kind of on you as the writer to get your point across more clearly. Not everybody has good reading comprehension - it's kind of a fact of life (and definitely a fact of an online forum...), so you can either have only the smart people with good reading comprehension understand your points, or you can change the way you're explaining things and have more people understand your point. Can't have it both ways.

One thing that I think has gotten lost in all the flaming and all the "REREAD MY POST IDIOT" talk is the claim that the level of play in Korea has stagnated. I think this is really, really false. People who are better at the game than I am can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think players as a whole have gotten significantly better in the last year to two years. It seems to me that the best players have less flaws than the best players a year or two ago had, and the medium level players have less flaws than the medium level players a year or two ago had.

Take a look at the list of players that got top 4 in OSL or MSL since 2006. Next to each player, I've commented as to whether I think that player is currently a top 5 player in his race today.

MSL

ChoJJa (no)
Savior (no )
Oov (no)
MuMyung (no)
Nal_rA (no)
Kingdom (no)
Midas (no)
Silver (no)
JJu (no)
Bisu (yes)
Hwasin (yes)
Stork (yes)
GoRush (no)
FBH (no to maybe)
Mind (yes)
Xellos (no)
Jaedong (yes)
Kal (yes)
Jangbi (yes)

Notice how almost all the "yes" answers come from very recently....

OSL
Oov (no)
July (maybe ... only a recent resurgence has changed this)
Pusan (no)
Casy (no)
Chojja (no)
Yellow (no)
Jju (no)
Nada (maybe)
Anytime (yes to maybe)
Midas (no)
Goodfriend (no)
Savior (no)
Iris (no)
GGPlay (no)
Stork (yes)
Flash (yes and if he makes it to WCG he will ANNIHILATE everyone)
Jaedong (yes)
Bisu (yes)
UpMagic (no)
Luxury (yes)

Some of these might be up for debate but I think I got most of them about right. For the record, I have (in no particular order):

P: Best, Kal, Stork, Bisu, Jangbi, Much, Anytime, Rock? Free?
Z: Jaedong, Luxury, July, 815, Kwanro, Yarnc, Rumble?
T: Flash, Mind, Sea, Hwasin, Canata? Nada? FBH? forGG? Ruby?

I might have left off a guy here or there but nobody that would contradict my list above.

What is apparent is that many players that were good enough to be TOP 4 IN A STARLEAGUE as recently as 2 1/2 years ago have completely dropped off the map. Sure, some of it is retirement, lack of motivation, etc., but some of it is also that the overall level of play has gone up a lot.

So what's my overall point? Basically, it's true that foreigners have gotten better and that LAN latency will help that. But, historically, another argument for foreigners being able to steal a win at WCG is that the very best Korean players don't always even make it to WCG, because of the rigors of the qualification process. However, this argument is actually WEAKER than it has been in the past, because even the "average" Korean A-class pro is now better than one or two years ago, and thus Korea actually has a wider pool of unstoppable monsters to send.

For example, we all agree that if Flash, Jaedong, and Best are sent to WCG, the Koreans will probably absolutely annihilate everyone. However, say Korea sends Ruby, Yellow[arnc], and Free. Not exactly a murderer's row. But, I'd venture to say Ruby today is better than Oov was in 06, Yellow[arnc] today is better than July was in 06. Maybe Best today isn't better than Stork was in 07 but Stork did win, after all.... Even if Korea sent Ruby + Yellow[arnc] + Best, would things really look that much easier for foreigners? Not in my opinion. And this is if disaster strikes and somehow none of Flash, Jaedong, Mind, Best, Kal, etc., manage to make it. Ruby/Yarnc/Free only look so/so because of the overall level of play now (at least in my opinion).
SuperJongMan
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Jamaica11586 Posts
May 29 2008 20:54 GMT
#168
So..... Danny boy...
Age old question for you.

A+ +MH or Progamer???
POWER OVERWHELMING ! ! ! KRUU~ KRUU~
Last.Midnight
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
Australia906 Posts
May 30 2008 07:33 GMT
#169
everybody so tense. this makes me lol.

inc likes mallcore.
rek's token quotes are lame.
inc follows bw closely.
rek was a progamer.


who to listen to? =[
JudasT
Profile Joined January 2003
Spain2226 Posts
May 30 2008 09:22 GMT
#170
Why don't TL try to organize this:

Razer TSL winner vs Some progamer

it would be amazing !

Taking the time to have simple fun everyday is a must for a happy life.
snowbird
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Germany2044 Posts
May 30 2008 11:48 GMT
#171
i'm willing to bet 3$ that any given korean B-team player would crush the TSL winner in a BO7 with 4-0 or 4-1

yep, 3$!
@riotsnowbird
altered
Profile Joined March 2008
Switzerland646 Posts
May 30 2008 19:24 GMT
#172
i'll bet 20$!
Does Flash dream of electric Romeo?
IntoTheWow
Profile Blog Joined May 2004
is awesome32282 Posts
May 30 2008 20:05 GMT
#173
http://teamliquid.net/tlpd/players/424_Flash/games

good luck
Moderator<:3-/-<
Hyperionnn
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Turkey4968 Posts
May 30 2008 22:06 GMT
#174
On May 30 2008 20:48 snowbird wrote:
i'm willing to bet 3$ that any given korean B-team player would crush the TSL winner in a BO7 with 4-0 or 4-1

yep, 3$!


Pokju vs TSL winner could be interesting imo.
Guybrush
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Spain4744 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-31 09:14:20
May 30 2008 22:48 GMT
#175
Koreans let a foreigner get to the final every second year;
Elky 2001
Fisheye 2003, Grrrr 3rd
Androide 2005, Legionnaire 3rd
PJ 2007, Mondragon 3rd

In 00, 02, and 04 a foreigner took 3rd, NTT, Elky and Beast respectively. In 06 the koreans owned it up and took 1st,2nd,3rd.

Chances are they'll rape it up this year if history repeats itself.

The 06 lineup is the best they've sent, and if they send anything remotely close(IE guys like Flash, Jaedong, Best, Sea, Mind, Bisu) they will most likely rape it up. If they send guys like Up, Hwasin, Iris, foreigners might have a chance.
Live2Win is awesome. Happy new year scarabi!
StylishVODs
Profile Joined December 2005
Sweden5331 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-05-31 02:05:22
May 31 2008 01:46 GMT
#176
well if draco can come back from inactivity and beat everyone 3-0 without much practice I would say our chances are very slim.

we probably couldnt even have beaten oov july and whats his name back in 2006 with the skill we have today.
According to Reach, he is the fastest learner he has ever seen. He start bw only like 2/3 years ago. Infact, his bw history knowledge is so limited, he didn't even know what the map Guillotine was.
Beside_kr
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada902 Posts
May 31 2008 02:10 GMT
#177
in 04 Beast from Bulgaria took 3rd Guybrush.
Cuffs, cuffs, you can't break those cuffs
evanthebouncy!
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
United States12816 Posts
May 31 2008 03:37 GMT
#178
On May 31 2008 07:48 Guybrush wrote:
Koreans let a foreigner get to the final every second year;
Elky 2001
Fisheye 2003, Grrrr 3rd
Androide 2005, Legionnaire 3rd
PJ 2007, Mondragon 3rd

In 00, and 02 a foreigner took 3rd, NTT and Elky respectively. In 04 and 06 the koreans owned it up and took 1st,2nd,3rd.

Chances are they'll rape it up this year if history repeats itself.

The 06 lineup is the best they've sent, and if they send anything remotely close(IE guys like Flash, Jaedong, Best, Sea, Mind, Bisu) they will most likely rape it up. If they send guys like Up, Hwasin, Iris, foreigners might have a chance.


Lol
Life is run, it is dance, it is fast, passionate and BAM!, you dance and sing and booze while you can for now is the time and time is mine. Smile and laugh when still can for now is the time and soon you die!
evanthebouncy!
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
United States12816 Posts
May 31 2008 03:37 GMT
#179
On May 29 2008 01:02 Ancestral wrote:
Although many of the players debating here are far better than I, in fact several are foreign gosus, I feel like some of them that foreigners aren't going to take this WCG. In fact, there's only one name that stands a chance I think, and that chance is 100%.

+ Show Spoiler +
Are you sure you want to know?+ Show Spoiler +
This will blow your mind.+ Show Spoiler +
Actually, it's the obvious answer...+ Show Spoiler +
See if you can guess!?+ Show Spoiler +
Kang Min


Haha nice spoiler, but he needs to get the rusts off. His mechanics won't cut it atm...
Life is run, it is dance, it is fast, passionate and BAM!, you dance and sing and booze while you can for now is the time and time is mine. Smile and laugh when still can for now is the time and soon you die!
Guybrush
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Spain4744 Posts
May 31 2008 09:14 GMT
#180
On May 31 2008 11:10 Beside_kr wrote:
in 04 Beast from Bulgaria took 3rd Guybrush.


Right, thanks.
Live2Win is awesome. Happy new year scarabi!
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