I asked for my last thread on this topic to be closed. I don't think I was prepared to stand up for what I had to say, and also I think I could have been more succinct about what I had to say.
I'll try to keep it short, but mostly this is going to come out as a stream of consciousness.
First, I will say that it is surprising to me that there are not more (or any!) threads about this virus. Perhaps most people are not worried, and even more (especially outside of China) don't really know what is going on. If you do not know, I will educate you on some basic facts:
1) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
2) The actions of the CCP in China, in combination with the virus, is creating civil unrest in China. It is possible we may see large political events and maybe even an attempt at revolution in China. But it is also important to ask why China is taking the extreme actions that it is in response to the virus.
3) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense. There are many many reasons right now to doubt official numbers. I think it may be in people's best interest to consider the possibility that authorities might view suppression of panic and maximization of economy as more important than transparency. It's really really naive to think that those with the most power and influence in the world are both competent enough and caring enough to look out for you through all of the world's dangers.
To summarize, what I am getting at here, is that people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus. If you want to dismiss it by comparing it to other recent viral outbreaks, then actually do your due diligence and then compare actual statistics and information to that of other outbreaks. I am not trying to scare anyone, and I'd love for nothing to come of this. But the reality is right now that the state of the virus *currently* is going to have huge economic repercussions already, and these effects are going to be even more profound if the spread of the virus continues.
Let's open up a discussion. I am prepared to defend my position.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
The initially reported cases by China seemed to just reflect a 2.1% daily increase.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
1.) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
Is i understand it is one provins that has most quarantine. The hubei it has under 60 mio People a lot but not 10% of the worlds population.
What i find more disturbing is the way China uses technology to indentify potentiel victims and People that breach quarantine. For me it is like reading a sifi book.
1.) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
Is i understand it is one provins that has most quarantine. The hubei it has under 60 mio People a lot but not 10% of the worlds population.
What i find more disturbing is the way China uses technology to indentify potentiel victims and People that breach quarantine. For me it is like reading a sifi book.
Here is a NYTimes article which cites a number of 760 million in some form of quarantine:
I did read Your previous post before it was removed and i will say it was "quite" different to this one. I will also say this: -The reported cases make a lot sense given how seriously China and other countries are treating this issue. For example when American tourist in my city was showing symptoms they even purged clean the ambulance she was rushed into hospital. It later turned out she wasnt having coronavirus but the suspision was treated very seriously. -Like already pointed above only parts of China are under strict quarantine. -If have so many reasons to doubt official numbers please post them (the more the batter) I will also ask You - Are You currently in central China?? If not how are You getting Your information?
What's most troubling to me is that when you look at the map you have infections everywhere but Africa and South America, which is odd. I really hope we don't get a sudden update where half those continents are infected considering their population density and healthcare levels...
Another oddity is mainland China, where over a course of 1 day there was a 50% spike in the number of infected people (40k -> 60k), which would support claims of Chinese government skewing the numbers.
Also, China has changed the requirements to be considered an infection case. Basically, even if you test positive for the virus but don't show any symptoms you're not being reported. This is nuts, considering that nCov is contagious even in asymptomatic people which was proven in Germany (you can get infected before someone shows symptoms, during and after the symptoms have stopped so the person is potentially recovered but still contagious).
And a really nice insight into how it all started and the level of incompetence in China:
On February 19 2020 01:41 Silvanel wrote: I did read Your previous post before it was removed and i would say it was quite different to this one. I will say this: -The reported cases make a lot sense given how seriously China and other countries are treating this issue. For example when American tourist in my city was showing symptoms they even purged clean the ambulance she was rushed in to hospital
I disagree intensely on this. It may be the case that some areas or even some nations are giving this situation adequate levels of attention and resources, but there are so many examples of incompetence and negligence... sometimes to the point of almost seeming intentional. But this potentially invokes a very lengthy discussion filled with anecdotes rather than hard information. The kind of response you are giving an example of is the kind of response we need, but this does not seem to be the typical response we are seeing. I am hoping maybe other people can come in and help me out with facts and information, but if not I will do my best to get some examples of more atrocious examples of negligence.
Also another example is that the testing in the U.S.A. is awful to the point of being weird. For some reason the CDC insisted on doing all the testing themselves (in atlanta), and claimed ~48 hour turnover. The real turnover time quickly turned into 7days+, sometimes with no published result at all. Eventually the CDC sent out tests to various labs to use in state/region. Guess what? Turns out the tests were defunct. They were faulty. Then it went back to all tests having to be done in Atlanta.
-Like already pointed above only parts of China are under strict quarantine.
I have been finding more information about 760 million in quarantine. Yes, that is parts. Huge parts. 56 million were in quarantine almost a month ago. In late January they started piling huge mounds of dirt over roadways in and out of Huwan, and then started doing it to other cities as well.
-If have so many reasons to doubt official numbers please post them (the more the batter)
I will but its much easier to do during the process of discussion and debate.
I will also ask You - Are You currently in central China?? If not how are You getting Your information?
No. My information has come from a multitude of sources, including youtube video leaks from China, news articles, discussion or r/china_flu and r/coronavirus, and a coronavirus discord. I've been following it closely for about a month now. Obviously any given source should be taken with a grain of salt. But, when you start seeing the same information from many many unrelated sources, it starts becoming overwhelmingly obvious when certain things are more or less likely to be true.
Another oddity is mainland China, where over a course of 1 day there was a 50% spike in the number of infected people (40k -> 60k), which would support claims of Chinese government skewing the numbers.
BNO has also done a good job of tracking cases for a long time now as well, just as an alternate source:
However.. these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. China has been using tricks to avoid confirming cases so the numbers look better. One of the first things China did was devote large amounts of resources to keep people from discussing the virus on social media, and they have only continued to become more and more oppressive in how they do so.
As for the spike in confirmations, I have heard from some sources that it was due to a switch to using CT scans for infection confirmation. I have heard from other sources, however, that it is the result of letting international teams come in and test people - which has forced some more transparency. I haven't had enough time to research and get a feel for if either of these reasons are the case or not.
people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus
I guess my main question is what exactly do you think people(outside Asia) should be doing about it? Besides the recommend wash your hands and do your best not to touch your face while outside what can people do?
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
To play devils advocate a little bit on why the numbers jump so much over a short period of time, these types of diseases often spread exponentially, so while at the start the spread is slow, it very quickly becomes a vertical line straight up in terms of the number of people infected. I would never trust China to reveal the exact amount of people infected or the seriousness of the disease but we also shouldn't immediately think it's a conspiracy when numbers jump suddenly, that's sort of to be expected.
people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus
I guess my main question is what exactly do you think people(outside Asia) should be doing about it? Besides the recommend wash your hands and do your best not to touch your face while outside what can people do?
don't go to work if you're sick (not just with the coronavirus) Nothing else really.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
I wasn't thinking of a particular claim. The issue is that even by the numbers claimed by China, the growth rate of the virus is really really high. It's very contagious. But we had already let people in from Wuhan well before we issued a travel ban. And then we were still letting in people from other parts of China. And later people are still coming in from China by going through other countries first. This is the case for most countries.
A couple weeks ago we started seeing confirmed cases pop up internationally. But then suddenly their growth stopped. The growth should be continuing. There should still be more cases. Why has confirmed cases stopped so sharply?
One answer, and the answer I hope, is that the virus isn't nearly as contagious as first estimated. But that answer makes no sense because we have a lot of good data on how contagious it is, we've basically confirmed it to within certain confidences.
Another answer is that countries have actually done a great job stopping the spread of it. I'd love to believe that is the case. But there is a lot of information coming out that contradicts that this is the case. Many countries have not taken it seriously whatsoever.
The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
It's hard for me to address everything that could be discussed involving this because there is simply an overwhelming amount of information out there. Those that have their interest piqued, I'd recommend they start research on reddit.com/r/china_flu. Those that think nothing will come of this in their hometown, I hope you're right. Well really there will be economic impacts already regardless of what happens. But in terms of the virus, I hope you're right. But I still just ask people to keep their eyes and ears open, because you may start seeing signs in the next 2-3 weeks that make you change your mind, but are still early enough that allow you to prepare.
On February 19 2020 02:12 OmniEulogy wrote: To play devils advocate a little bit on why the numbers jump so much over a short period of time, these types of diseases often spread exponentially, so while at the start the spread is slow, it very quickly becomes a vertical line straight up in terms of the number of people infected. I would never trust China to reveal the exact amount of people infected or the seriousness of the disease but we also shouldn't immediately think it's a conspiracy when numbers jump suddenly, that's sort of to be expected.
Says it is due to changed ways of reporting if that matches your timing. There are other sources confirming changed reporting standards if that isn't a good enough source.
people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus
I guess my main question is what exactly do you think people(outside Asia) should be doing about it? Besides the recommend wash your hands and do your best not to touch your face while outside what can people do?
Social distancing and behave like a germophobe. I think people should keep going to work if they aren't sick and their work isn't a fluff job, or if they will need the money. The exception is if they are elderly, immunocompromised, or their work involves large amounts of people in a small space.
If you want some more info about your best options, they are discussed pretty thoroughly in a prepping document someone has made here:
On February 19 2020 02:53 travis wrote: The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
For large regions of the world this is very unlikely. A more likely case is that people aren't taking it seriously and thus treat it as a normal flu. The infected being lucky in getting mild symptoms.
Personally I think the second case of good containment procedures is more likely in the places that had few reported cases. Based on how people around me discuss it the single case here was hot news and people got worried. So under-reporting seems very unlikely.
Of course one or two of the areas will likely expand and need a second round of isolation to slow it down to a propagation rate of below 1 which means it dies out. That can be managed with active cases in 2 or perhaps 3 digits. It is when it goes past that it becomes very hard.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
I wasn't thinking of a particular claim. The issue is that even by the numbers claimed by China, the growth rate of the virus is really really high. It's very contagious. But we had already let people in from Wuhan well before we issued a travel ban. And then we were still letting in people from other parts of China. And later people are still coming in from China by going through other countries first. This is the case for most countries.
A couple weeks ago we started seeing confirmed cases pop up internationally. But then suddenly their growth stopped. The growth should be continuing. There should still be more cases. Why has confirmed cases stopped so sharply?
One answer, and the answer I hope, is that the virus isn't nearly as contagious as first estimated. But that answer makes no sense because we have a lot of good data on how contagious it is, we've basically confirmed it to within certain confidences.
Another answer is that countries have actually done a great job stopping the spread of it. I'd love to believe that is the case. But there is a lot of information coming out that contradicts that this is the case. Many countries have not taken it seriously whatsoever.
The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
It's hard for me to address everything that could be discussed involving this because there is simply an overwhelming amount of information out there. Those that have their interest piqued, I'd recommend they start research on reddit.com/r/china_flu. Those that think nothing will come of this in their hometown, I hope you're right. Well really there will be economic impacts already regardless of what happens. But in terms of the virus, I hope you're right. But I still just ask people to keep their eyes and ears open, because you may start seeing signs in the next 2-3 weeks that make you change your mind, but are still early enough that allow you to prepare.
So your thinking that its not a situation of containment successfully working the in the West because of a limited number of initial cases but a grand conspiracy to suppress the real extend.
So people in the West are getting sick, developing symptoms, going to see a doctor and the doctor hides the truth because they have been told to do so by 'somebody'. In dozens of countries and involving tens of thousands of doctors who all should be really against allowing a virus to spread freely?
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
I wasn't thinking of a particular claim. The issue is that even by the numbers claimed by China, the growth rate of the virus is really really high. It's very contagious. But we had already let people in from Wuhan well before we issued a travel ban. And then we were still letting in people from other parts of China. And later people are still coming in from China by going through other countries first. This is the case for most countries.
A couple weeks ago we started seeing confirmed cases pop up internationally. But then suddenly their growth stopped. The growth should be continuing. There should still be more cases. Why has confirmed cases stopped so sharply?
One answer, and the answer I hope, is that the virus isn't nearly as contagious as first estimated. But that answer makes no sense because we have a lot of good data on how contagious it is, we've basically confirmed it to within certain confidences.
Another answer is that countries have actually done a great job stopping the spread of it. I'd love to believe that is the case. But there is a lot of information coming out that contradicts that this is the case. Many countries have not taken it seriously whatsoever.
The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
It's hard for me to address everything that could be discussed involving this because there is simply an overwhelming amount of information out there. Those that have their interest piqued, I'd recommend they start research on reddit.com/r/china_flu. Those that think nothing will come of this in their hometown, I hope you're right. Well really there will be economic impacts already regardless of what happens. But in terms of the virus, I hope you're right. But I still just ask people to keep their eyes and ears open, because you may start seeing signs in the next 2-3 weeks that make you change your mind, but are still early enough that allow you to prepare.
So your thinking that its not a situation of containment successfully working the in the West because of a limited number of initial cases but a grand conspiracy to suppress the real extend.
So people in the West are getting sick, developing symptoms, going to see a doctor and the doctor hides the truth because they have been told to do so by 'somebody'. In dozens of countries and involving tens of thousands of doctors who all should be really against allowing a virus to spread freely?
I remember reading something about two dozen of cases in Munich last week. Haven't heard much about them since, but there would be plenty of reasons to disclose that it isn't a big deal if it weren't.
Actually found a source. Just 8 it seems. But it's an old article considering the urgency and I don't know how it goes from flu-like symptoms to sudden collapse.
Either way I wouldn't dismiss the chance that this thing gets contained before it spreads too much.
So people in the West are getting sick, developing symptoms, going to see a doctor and the doctor hides the truth because they have been told to do so by 'somebody'.
For most people it will manifest just like the flu. There is no way to know if someone has the coronavirus without having proper testing done, and the tests are done specifically by the CDC. (Even then we are seeing false negatives all over the world).
Motivations for any concealment of information is further speculation, my point is that it is entirely possible. If there is a grand conspiracy going on, I would think that it's capacity to be maintained during an outbreak is limited and that leaks of information would become more and more frequent. But here is a challenge to the idea that a conspiracy to conceal information would be too difficult: perhaps leaks of information are already happening.
In dozens of countries and involving tens of thousands of doctors who all should be really against allowing a virus to spread freely?
That is a vast simplification I think. I don't think that is happening, and I don't think it could happen on a large scale. But a handful of gag orders and directives given down to top hospital administration? It seems possible.
To make it clear, I am not asserting that this is happening. My point isn't to put out any sort of specific theory, especially since I don't have any specific belief of such ideas.
If the whole thing is being covered up to prevent panic, to prevent mass infection, I am fine with the cover up. If the cover up is being used to prevent people from understanding how/why this happens, I am opposed to the cover up. I really have no idea how this shit works. If the entire world knows that downplaying it while doing everything they can to fix it is the best thing to do, go for it.
I cover up in Europe is crazy, Nobody is stupid enough to hide a virus, it would make more sick and Short term gain to avoid panic for even bigger panic later when virus is out of control. Also it presume that Europe would have one central deciding goverment body that can make decision cross border, Europe have many contries with own intrest and within each country parties and medie with own intrest. Do anybody really believe this??
On February 19 2020 05:03 Mohdoo wrote: If the whole thing is being covered up to prevent panic, to prevent mass infection, I am fine with the cover up. If the cover up is being used to prevent people from understanding how/why this happens, I am opposed to the cover up. I really have no idea how this shit works. If the entire world knows that downplaying it while doing everything they can to fix it is the best thing to do, go for it.
Thinking about what you would do in an hypothetical situation is useless. The question is not what the cover up is being used to, but is there a cover up. We know there is one in china, but don't you think the mass media would be particularly on the hunt (cuz it sells a lot when people are afraid) and it would be reported ? No offense, but your post is equivalent to "if there are alien out there, would they really probe my ass during the night while i'm in my bed ?" It's a funny question, but probably not the one you want to entertain out loud
Just want to remind everyone that the intended focus of this thread was not *only* to discuss the potential of a coverup. I know the suggestion of that is the most incendiary part of the OP, but this is also meant to be a thread for general discussion of the virus. Not that I have any problem with people debating the potential of a coverup.
On February 19 2020 05:20 Sapaio wrote: I cover up in Europe is crazy, Nobody is stupid enough to hide a virus, it would make more sick and Short term gain to avoid panic for even bigger panic later when virus is out of control. Also it presume that Europe would have one central deciding goverment body that can make decision cross border, Europe have many contries with own intrest and within each country parties and medie with own intrest. Do anybody really believe this??
You would think that but it's exactly what China did.
There is no cover up of anything. People who think there is a conspiracy have no idea how healthcare works.
Tbh even China seems to have opened up information. The increase in reported cases was because they dropped the lab test requirement and now it is enough with plausible infection and fitting symptoms. That is the opposite of keeping the lid on and it was done because doctors advised on it and there was a lack of test kits. If you wanted to not report cases keeping the old system and just not supplying the tests would have been the absolutely best way to do it because that way you do not have to involve a lot of medical personal at all.
However in the west we currently test everybody who have a runny nose and have looked at a map of China.
Also there is no benefit in trying to downplay this disease. It is bad because it spreads easily, not because it is severe. The only way it will get really serious is if you have such a vast spread that ICU space is overloaded because then you will lose some people. If people are a bit scared they will wash their hands properly and not go outside so much, exactly what you want to limit spread.
On February 19 2020 05:26 travis wrote: Just want to remind everyone that the intended focus of this thread was not *only* to discuss the potential of a coverup. I know the suggestion of that is the most incendiary part of the OP, but this is also meant to be a thread for general discussion of the virus. Not that I have any problem with people debating the potential of a coverup.
On February 19 2020 05:20 Sapaio wrote: I cover up in Europe is crazy, Nobody is stupid enough to hide a virus, it would make more sick and Short term gain to avoid panic for even bigger panic later when virus is out of control. Also it presume that Europe would have one central deciding goverment body that can make decision cross border, Europe have many contries with own intrest and within each country parties and medie with own intrest. Do anybody really believe this??
You would think that but it's exactly what China did.
You compare Europa to China. That doesn't make sense. As I said Europe has many contries with many political parties and free press. China is a one party communist/ dictatorship republic with control over press and communication
On February 19 2020 05:26 travis wrote: Just want to remind everyone that the intended focus of this thread was not *only* to discuss the potential of a coverup. I know the suggestion of that is the most incendiary part of the OP, but this is also meant to be a thread for general discussion of the virus. Not that I have any problem with people debating the potential of a coverup.
On February 19 2020 05:20 Sapaio wrote: I cover up in Europe is crazy, Nobody is stupid enough to hide a virus, it would make more sick and Short term gain to avoid panic for even bigger panic later when virus is out of control. Also it presume that Europe would have one central deciding goverment body that can make decision cross border, Europe have many contries with own intrest and within each country parties and medie with own intrest. Do anybody really believe this??
You would think that but it's exactly what China did.
You compare Europa to China. That doesn't make sense. As I said Europe has many contries with many political parties and free press. China is a one party communist/ dictatorship republic with control over press and communication
I wasn't comparing anything. You are correct, they are very different places. I didn't mean to seem like I was using China as an example to justify why it would be possible to have a coverup. I was using China as an example to show that the idea that:
Nobody is stupid enough to hide a virus, it would make more sick and Short term gain to avoid panic for even bigger panic later when virus is out of control.
did not hold true for china. It's my fault for not specifying that.
I feel like Europe is dealing with it quite well? I also feel like you're underestimating the health institutions: the virology labs, the epidemiologists, the practitioning doctors, etc. working on making this pass as fast as possible. Why would a health organization not have the best interest for its people? I could somehow understand governments - holding up your reputation or something , but health organizations, things that rely on having the info/knowledge/transparancy to function won't just blindly abide by "inconsistent and untransparant and lying" governments. You think the heaps of statisticians won't notice numbers being off if they're off? You think the only thing that's noticing "lying happening" is random people on reddit commenting about it?
I have been following the coronavirus outbreak closely, partly from a professional point of view (I am a mathematician and scientist, and while I don't usually work with epidemiology models, I do understand them) and partly from personal curiosity.
First, most people do not understand exponential growth, so lets focus on that. According to current research the doubling rate is about 1 week, meaning every week the total number of cases doubles. However, this number depends on a lot of factors, like population density, social customs (hand shaking), voluntary isolation, quarantine measures and the weather. But lets work with the current best estimate of 1 week. Suppose that on the 21st of January an infected person travelled from China to country X. That was exactly 4 weeks ago, so on average there would be 16 infected individuals now. That is not a lot. If things continue the same for another 4 weeks, that's 256. More, but still manageable. And in 8 weeks that would be about 4000.
These people then split into those with no or weak symptoms (like a cold), and those with serious symptoms (pneumonia). From the point of view of the health care system, you only ever see those with serious symptoms, lets say those are 10% of the cases (this 10% number is a reasonable guess, but it could be as high as 15% or as low 3%, depending on how many people are never diagnosed with this coronavirus). In any case we currently have flu season, so if today there are 1-2 additional cases of pneumonia (10% of 16), nobody will notice. In four weeks, the Middle of march, that's 26 additional cases. In developed countries I expect that at this point the epidemic gets noticed by the health care system. And in the middle of April there will be hundreds of serious cases, and the health care systems starts to get strained.
So not seeing any spread of the epidemic in country X is at this point in time completely normal, it doesn't mean anything. Could be that there are no cases, could be that the epidemic is starting to silently spread.
What about confirmed cases? With quarantine measures and contact tracing there is a good chance that these small outbreaks were successfully contained. It could also be the case that an infected contact slipped through the net and starts the epidemic, in which case the above scenario holds, but time shifted by a 2-4 weeks, so we will notice even later.
So how likely is it that China can contain the epidemic? Frankly, quite unlikely, but draconian quarantine measures are about the only thing which might work. However, I suspect that the economic impact of those is too much. Factories have to reopen, and there are too many cases all over china. It might work, but current data makes me pessimistic. If we look at
we see a downward slope for new cases in rest of china, but not in Wuhan and Hubei Province. Simply put, draconian methods for many weeks might do the trick, but once these are relaxed the infection will spread again.
Additionally, there are currently perhaps 8 new confirmed cases in Japan daily. That means that there is a high risk that the coronavirus is already spreading in Japan, with >100 infected. That would mean that we can expect 1000 confirmed cases in about 3 weeks. This is all ignoring the cruise ship, which is a special case.
So my conclusion. Most likely scenario: pandemic, with a peak in the summer or next winter. How bad is it going to be? Tricky to say. This thing seems to be highly infectious, more so than the regular flu. So probably some fraction of your country will eventually get infected, perhaps 1%, perhaps 50%, impossible to predict right now. How many people will die? The death rate is currently between 0.2% and 4%. Young healthy individuals seem to be fairly safe, while the elderly and those with co-morbidities have higher risk. This gives an average of 1% when the health care system is functioning, and 4% when high level care can no longer be provided. It could be that some treatment options like anti-virals work, studies are under way, we will hopefully know in a few weeks. I am more worried about the economic impact than the total death rate. Even a death rate of 2% is terrible, but the resulting depression and its consequences might kill just as many people.
If it stays contained, it will still take months to truly disappear. Right now we cannot say, except that the quarantine measures in China are slowing down the spread by a lot (but likely not enough).
What can you personally do? - Wash hands (soap and running water is ideal) - If you have cold-like symptoms avoid contact with elderly or other people at risk - keep healthy, don't stress (no point in checking the news every day) - get vaccinated (flu shot next fall, measles etc. now if you are not yet vaccinated) - stop smoking (there is weak evidence that smoking is a risk factor, and if you stop smoking your lungs will improve quite a bit within a few weeks) - have enough food and necessities for 1-2 weeks at home in case panic buying empties shelves. This is generally good advice in case of general emergencies
Edit: Added picture from wikipedia. Actually, picture is not working, don't know how to fix.
Sirius thanks for the post. I agree with everything you say, except I think the disease will likely spread a bit faster than that, which will likely have worse repercussions because it will be harder to contain and has higher potential to overload health care systems. The reason I feel it will spread faster is because of the long incubation period. Reports of incubation periods seem to be all over the place, but what we are seeing pretty clearly is that it can be longer than 3 weeks.
The long incubation period, with apparent reports of some cases of asymptomatic transmission, means that the base of undetected infected at any given time could be quite large.
First, I will say that it is surprising to me that there are not more (or any!) threads about this virus. Perhaps most people are not worried, and even more (especially outside of China) don't really know what is going on. If you do not know, I will educate you on some basic facts:
[...]
3) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense. There are many many reasons right now to doubt official numbers. I think it may be in people's best interest to consider the possibility that authorities might view suppression of panic and maximization of economy as more important than transparency. It's really really naive to think that those with the most power and influence in the world are both competent enough and caring enough to look out for you through all of the world's dangers.
[...]
Let's open up a discussion. I am prepared to defend my position.
On February 19 2020 04:34 travis wrote:
That is a vast simplification I think. I don't think that is happening, and I don't think it could happen on a large scale. But a handful of gag orders and directives given down to top hospital administration? It seems possible.
To make it clear, I am not asserting that this is happening. My point isn't to put out any sort of specific theory, especially since I don't have any specific belief of such ideas.
Sorry, but what is your position?
There is a very open discussion in Germany. The returned German Wuhan inhabitants got isolated for 14 days. Interviews afterwards. Daily updates. 2 probable cases that got further isolated and are healed. No other confimed cases. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/corona-quarantaene-germersheim-101.html (German source).
I don't get the mentality. All individual governments lie in addition to all medics and national and international health authorities?
Before the open discussed jump in reported numbers and afterwards you see a slow down both in infections in death. No exponential increase. The death % is stable for 2 month now slightly above 2%.
The incubation period is typically 3-6 days, 14+ days is a rare exception. But a longer incubation period makes contact tracing and quarantine more tricky, but tends to slow down the spread. Essentially, sufficiently many virus particles in the host must be present for infection to be possible, which is only near the end of the incubation period. But anyway, the 1 week doubling time is based on current data, and I focused on that instead of R_0 because it is more robust to measurement problems and ignores problems like the incubation period.
It's an interesting case study for the CCP, if nothing else.
Their system of repression makes it much harder to contain at patient zero, because the doctor treating patient zero gets threatened with subversion if he raises the alarm. On the other hand, their regime is the only one in the world capable of implementing the kind of quarantine they have put in place. I am curious whether there will be any effective backlash.
So my conclusion. Most likely scenario: pandemic, with a peak in the summer or next winter. How bad is it going to be? Tricky to say. This thing seems to be highly infectious, more so than the regular flu. So probably some fraction of your country will eventually get infected, perhaps 1%, perhaps 50%, impossible to predict right now. How many people will die? The death rate is currently between 0.2% and 4%. Young healthy individuals seem to be fairly safe, while the elderly and those with co-morbidities have higher risk. This gives an average of 1% when the health care system is functioning, and 4% when high level care can no longer be provided. It could be that some treatment options like anti-virals work, studies are under way, we will hopefully know in a few weeks. I am more worried about the economic impact than the total death rate. Even a death rate of 2% is terrible, but the resulting depression and its consequences might kill just as many people.
If it stays contained, it will still take months to truly disappear. Right now we cannot say, except that the quarantine measures in China are slowing down the spread by a lot (but likely not enough).
As far as predictions go, this seems pretty reasonable. I think it will be manageable for developed countries if things continue as they have been. It really doesn't seem that dangerous outside of people at high risk, and quarantine and high standards of infection control seem to be handling it well. The big risk will be it breaking out in a developing country that can't do the things China is pulling.
First, I will say that it is surprising to me that there are not more (or any!) threads about this virus. Perhaps most people are not worried, and even more (especially outside of China) don't really know what is going on. If you do not know, I will educate you on some basic facts:
[...]
3) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense. There are many many reasons right now to doubt official numbers. I think it may be in people's best interest to consider the possibility that authorities might view suppression of panic and maximization of economy as more important than transparency. It's really really naive to think that those with the most power and influence in the world are both competent enough and caring enough to look out for you through all of the world's dangers.
[...]
Let's open up a discussion. I am prepared to defend my position.
That is a vast simplification I think. I don't think that is happening, and I don't think it could happen on a large scale. But a handful of gag orders and directives given down to top hospital administration? It seems possible.
To make it clear, I am not asserting that this is happening. My point isn't to put out any sort of specific theory, especially since I don't have any specific belief of such ideas.
Sorry, but what is your position?
Well formed question. My position is that the current published figures of Coronavirus don't mesh well with my understanding of what they should be, and they don't mesh well with forecasted numbers that I have seen most models predict.
I am not saying that this means they are wrong(that authorities are hiding confirmed cases). I am saying that I think it's definitely a possibility, in my opinion.
It's like if a good player plays starcraft and is adapting to their opponents build. But they only got limited scouting info. Now they've narrowed it down to 2 or 3 builds, but if you ask them it's not like they can be confident about any of them. They end up either taking a risk or do their best to choose a strategy that works well for all of them.
There is a very open discussion in Germany. The returned German Wuhan inhabitants got isolated for 14 days. Interviews afterwards. Daily updates. 2 probable cases that got further isolated and are healed. No other confimed cases. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/corona-quarantaene-germersheim-101.html (German source).
I don't get the mentality. All individual governments lie in addition to all medics and national and international health authorities?
Before the open discussed jump in reported numbers and afterwards you see a slow down both in infections in death. No exponential increase. The death % is stable for 2 month now slightly above 2%.
Ignore it? No. But nobody does.
I don't need to convince anyone that the government is deceiving them. The reason for that is that I do not know if it is the case. But I will give people my best advice, and essentially that is that 1.) They should probably give some attention to this virus and 2.) If they have some level of capability, they should look out for themselves instead of purely putting faith in others to do it for them.
A piece of advice I would give people is that observing actions can be much more important than observing words. Watch how authorities act. Also watch how the media acts. Is the media having a substantially different reaction to the Coronavirus than they did to SARS/H1N1/MERS/etc?
On February 19 2020 06:42 Belisarius wrote: As far as predictions go, this seems pretty reasonable. I think it will be manageable for developed countries if things continue as they have been. It really doesn't seem that dangerous outside of people at high risk, and quarantine and high standards of infection control seem to be handling it well. The big risk will be it breaking out in a developing country that can't do the things China is pulling.
I agree somewhat, but even in developed countries hospitals will be overwhelmed by the high case load of pneumonia. There simply are not enough beds and machines to provide breathing support for all. There is also a difference between peak in summer or winter. Winter is flu season, and something like 0.2% (depends on strain) of all flu cases need hospitalisation as well. So that's another thing you can do: get vaccinated, I'll add that to my post.
On February 19 2020 06:40 Sirion wrote: The incubation period is typically 3-6 days, 14+ days is a rare exception. But a longer incubation period makes contact tracing and quarantine more tricky, but tends to slow down the spread. Essentially, sufficiently many virus particles in the host must be present for infection to be possible, which is only near the end of the incubation period. But anyway, the 1 week doubling time is based on current data, and I focused on that instead of R_0 because it is more robust to measurement problems and ignores problems like the incubation period.
Fair enough, that makes sense.
And so, you believe that a longer incubation slows down the spread since asymptomatic transmission is extremely unlikely the further back in time you go from the infected showing symptoms? So then basically most of the time they aren't spreading the disease?
If so, that makes sense if the underlying ideas hold true.
I think one other factor to weigh, though, might be it's ability to survive outside a host. Do you have much information on that?
Several doctors in the hospital just down the road from where I work have it, and it has spread to their families, including their school-aged son. Yesterday the school nurse printed information about sanitation and emergency phone numbers for all the staff and students.
The real difference is in tourism, where many areas of Japan including where I work have seen a drop of 30-50% in tourism. Chinese tourists are a huge part of regional economies, so it is a real crunch.
Also, when I went into Osaka a couple weeks ago, about 95% of people were wearing masks, as opposed to the normal 50%.
On February 19 2020 06:40 Sirion wrote: The incubation period is typically 3-6 days, 14+ days is a rare exception. But a longer incubation period makes contact tracing and quarantine more tricky, but tends to slow down the spread. Essentially, sufficiently many virus particles in the host must be present for infection to be possible, which is only near the end of the incubation period. But anyway, the 1 week doubling time is based on current data, and I focused on that instead of R_0 because it is more robust to measurement problems and ignores problems like the incubation period.
Fair enough, that makes sense.
And so, you believe that a longer incubation slows down the spread since asymptomatic transmission is extremely unlikely the further back in time you go from the infected showing symptoms? So then basically most of the time they aren't spreading the disease?
Yes, that is how it works. Depending on virus the infectious period starts a few days before or after symptoms appear.
On February 19 2020 06:51 travis wrote: I think one other factor to weigh, though, might be it's ability to survive outside a host. Do you have much information on that?
There is some information. The virus can survive outside the host in droplets for a few hours, perhaps even days, but number of viable viral particles is declining. To make an example: An infected person sneezes on a spoon. That spoon is highly infectious for a few hours, but it is unclear if still infectious the next day (there will be viable virus particles, but that does not guarantee an infection). If somebody simply coughs/sneezes in the air, droplets can stay air born for a bit, this depends a lot on humidity and temperature. So sneeze/cough in your elbow. Sunlight and fresh air tend to destroy viral particles, which is another reason why summer is better. It is very unclear how high the risk of lets say door handles is. Which leads to advice number 1: wash your hands.
Things like packages from china are very likely safe. Theoretically possible, but more like a 1 in a billion chance.
The above link is for Event 201 (you can watch the videos if you're super interested). It was put on by 'The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation'. They essentially roleplay a pandemic, and assess the response. This event occured 1-2 months before the Coronavirus outbreak.
Anyways I am linking it for #6 and #7. Well hell, I'll just quote them. I added the bolding.
International organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts of epidemics and pandemics. Much of the economic harm resulting from a pandemic is likely to be due to counterproductive behavior of individuals, companies, and countries. For example, actions that lead to disruption of travel and trade or that change consumer behavior can greatly damage economies. In addition to other response activities, an increase in and reassessment of pandemic financial support will certainly be needed in a severe pandemic as many sectors of society may need financial support during or after a severe pandemic, including healthcare institutions, essential businesses, and national governments Furthermore, the ways in which these existing funds can now be used are limited. The International Health Regulations prioritize both minimizing public health risks and avoiding unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade. But there will also be a need to identify critical nodes of the banking system and global and national economies that are too essential to fail – there are some that are likely to need emergency international financial support as well. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, regional development banks, national governments, foundations, and others should explore ways to increase the amount and availability of funds in a pandemic and ensure that they can be flexibly used where needed.
Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next pandemic response. Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to research and develop nimble approaches to countering misinformation. This will require developing the ability to flood media with fast, accurate, and consistent information. Public health authorities should work with private employers and trusted community leaders such as faith leaders, to promulgate factual information to employees and citizens. Trusted, influential private-sector employers should create the capacity to readily and reliably augment public messaging, manage rumors and misinformation, and amplify credible information to support emergency public communications. National public health agencies should work in close collaboration with WHO to create the capability to rapidly develop and release consistent health messages. For their part, media companies should commit to ensuring that authoritative messages are prioritized and that false messages are suppressed including though the use of technology.
On February 19 2020 06:58 Manifesto7 wrote: Several doctors in the hospital just down the road from where I work have it, and it has spread to their families, including their school-aged son. Yesterday the school nurse printed information about sanitation and emergency phone numbers for all the staff and students.
The real difference is in tourism, where many areas of Japan including where I work have seen a drop of 30-50% in tourism. Chinese tourists are a huge part of regional economies, so it is a real crunch.
Also, when I went into Osaka a couple weeks ago, about 95% of people were wearing masks, as opposed to the normal 50%.
Interesting to know, confirms my suspicion that the virus is in the break-out phase in Japan.
The numbers out of China absolutely are being covered up. There's a mathematical model that predicts the number of deaths with a variance of .99. That simply isn't possible in an epidemic. The data is a simulation.
Why they're faking the numbers is anyone's guess. Maybe deaths are higher, maybe they're lower. Maybe they're trying to suppress panic, maybe they're using the issue as cover for something else in Hubei. What isn't in doubt is that they are faking the numbers.
On February 19 2020 07:39 Amarok wrote: The numbers out of China absolutely are being covered up. There's a mathematical model that predicts the number of deaths with a variance of .99. That simply isn't possible in an epidemic. The data is a simulation.
Why they're faking the numbers is anyone's guess. Maybe deaths are higher, maybe they're lower. Maybe they're trying to suppress panic, maybe they're using the issue as cover for something else in Hubei. What isn't in doubt is that they are faking the numbers.
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
On February 19 2020 07:39 Amarok wrote: The numbers out of China absolutely are being covered up. There's a mathematical model that predicts the number of deaths with a variance of .99. That simply isn't possible in an epidemic. The data is a simulation.
Why they're faking the numbers is anyone's guess. Maybe deaths are higher, maybe they're lower. Maybe they're trying to suppress panic, maybe they're using the issue as cover for something else in Hubei. What isn't in doubt is that they are faking the numbers.
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
Nothing is 100% bulletproof, but the virus almost always is attached to a particle that it "rides" to get into you. A particle filter makes the odds of contagion lower; n95 is good n99 is better, nuclear mask is best. Generic masks with no protection (I think surgical ones fall here) are better than nothing but not that useful.
Covering eyes (even with swim googles lol) and surgical gloves for hands are also safe bets if stuff gets really out of hand.
Q to travis or anyone who knows: It says US official cases are 30 from 15 now. Are those people from the cruise properly isolated, or are there new cases?
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
Nothing is 100% bulletproof, but the virus almost always is attached to a particle that it "rides" to get into you. A particle filter makes the odds of contagion lower; n95 is good n99 is better, nuclear mask is best. Generic masks with no protection (I think surgical ones fall here) are better than nothing but not that useful.
Covering eyes (even with swim googles lol) and surgical gloves for hands are also safe bets if stuff gets really out of hand.
Q to travis or anyone who knows: It says US official cases are 30 from 15 now. Are those people from the cruise properly isolated, or are there new cases?
FWIW None of these are any good without frequent replacement. They should be replaced many times per day for real protection.
Are there 2 questions being asked here? if you are asking if it rose to 30 because of the cruise - I would guess yes but I'd want to know where you are getting the 30 number from because I am still seeing 15. I'm under the impression that "officially" they mark all of the cruise ship infections as being Japanese? But maybe someone can confirm or deny that.
Are they properly isolated? Here is a statement about that.
My opinion? It's been shown that 14 days may not be long enough. But whether or not that justifies making them wait longer, I don't know.
Edit: and of course masks help. Putting your hand in front of your face while you are around people would help. Looking away from other people's faces would help. It's all relative. I am sure all kinds of masks are decent layers of defense. It's not like the virus is literally just floating in the air everywhere we go, it might float around a little bit but it mostly gets transmitted by larger drops, as other people are saying.
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
Nothing is 100% bulletproof, but the virus almost always is attached to a particle that it "rides" to get into you. A particle filter makes the odds of contagion lower; n95 is good n99 is better, nuclear mask is best. Generic masks with no protection (I think surgical ones fall here) are better than nothing but not that useful.
Covering eyes (even with swim googles lol) and surgical gloves for hands are also safe bets if stuff gets really out of hand.
Q to travis or anyone who knows: It says US official cases are 30 from 15 now. Are those people from the cruise properly isolated, or are there new cases?
US cases are up from the cruise ship. 14 imports I think there, maybe 15. Different sources say different things.
Biggest concern for me is hopsitals and how that plays into it. This is a long infection. Hospitalization often takes 5-8 days, and usually onset of respiratory difficulties wasn't until around days 7-8. with ARDS beginning shortly thereafter. This can easily last a period of 1-2 weeks, longer in severe cases needing full ventilation.
Our hospitals struggle to deal with flu surges, and sometimes even to treat cancer patients. If we start having thousands of new patients needing this kind of support...the hospital system is NOT going to be able to meet this demand. Take away that kind of support, and the CFR is going to rise, possible drastically.
This is especially worrying when you consider that around 20% of cases are having severe pnuemonia, and around 70% are so are showing mild pnuemonia. Granted, these numbers likely represent an upperbound as many estimates suggest actual cases could be an order of magnitude higher, with those mild ones being unreported...but even so that's 5-10% developing pneumonia with a disease as infection as flu.
I'd love to hear more about the prep work being done to handle patient swell if we do indeed see the seeding of local epidemics over the coming month and a half.
On February 19 2020 06:58 Manifesto7 wrote: Several doctors in the hospital just down the road from where I work have it, and it has spread to their families, including their school-aged son. Yesterday the school nurse printed information about sanitation and emergency phone numbers for all the staff and students.
The real difference is in tourism, where many areas of Japan including where I work have seen a drop of 30-50% in tourism. Chinese tourists are a huge part of regional economies, so it is a real crunch.
Also, when I went into Osaka a couple weeks ago, about 95% of people were wearing masks, as opposed to the normal 50%.
Asians with their masks... So far it's been pretty much confirmed that masks do not help against this virus. It is aerosol with confirmed fecal-oral transmission. They've also found it on door handles in hospitals and even doctors wearing proper masks, goggles and gloves got infected.
I hope you'll be all right Mani. Best wishes to you and your family.
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
My best understanding is that surgical masks decrease your transmission to others by greatly reducing the range and distribution of droplets and aerosols when you breath, cough, or sneeze. However they are not very effective at filtering out droplets and aerosols from others. So even if you believe that you currently not infected, it is good to have everybody (including yourself) playing a part in wearing a mask at all times so that the overall rate of transmission is reduced.
Respirator filters ranging from N95 to P100 are all fairly effective in both filtering out outside pathogens and your own pathogens as well.
i'm not sure how the West is handling it but here in Singapore, we're handling it pretty fine. there are some small clusters here and there but contact tracing has been on point, tracing most of the people within 24 hours. we practice self quarantine and isolation when we can, and the only reason why we are so high up on the global list of number of infected people is because we're being extra stringent on finding out who has been infected and following up on contact tracing.
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
My best understanding is that surgical masks decrease your transmission to others by greatly reducing the range and distribution of droplets and aerosols when you breath, cough, or sneeze. However they are not very effective at filtering out droplets and aerosols from others. So even if you believe that you currently not infected, it is good to have everybody (including yourself) playing a part in wearing a mask at all times so that the overall rate of transmission is reduced.
Respirator filters ranging from N95 to P100 are all fairly effective in both filtering out outside pathogens and your own pathogens as well.
Filtering what you put out is nice. Keep in mind though that this virus can infect you without entering your respiratory tract from what I managed to gather so masks do help prevent you spreading it but don't help much in terms of getting infected yourself.
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
It's not an airborne virus like measles, so they won't really protect the wearers from catching the virus. But they actually help a little, when infected people wear them, to protect others from contagious saliva and snot droplets. edit:
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote: All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
My best understanding is that surgical masks decrease your transmission to others by greatly reducing the range and distribution of droplets and aerosols when you breath, cough, or sneeze. However they are not very effective at filtering out droplets and aerosols from others. So even if you believe that you currently not infected, it is good to have everybody (including yourself) playing a part in wearing a mask at all times so that the overall rate of transmission is reduced.
Respirator filters ranging from N95 to P100 are all fairly effective in both filtering out outside pathogens and your own pathogens as well.
Filtering what you put out is nice. Keep in mind though that this virus can infect you without entering your respiratory tract from what I managed to gather so masks do help prevent you spreading it but don't help much in terms of getting infected yourself.
Note to self: Reading a thread to the last post is always a good idea to avoid looking like a moron, by posting the exact same answer right underneath the previous one
On February 19 2020 07:39 Amarok wrote: The numbers out of China absolutely are being covered up. There's a mathematical model that predicts the number of deaths with a variance of .99. That simply isn't possible in an epidemic. The data is a simulation.
Why they're faking the numbers is anyone's guess. Maybe deaths are higher, maybe they're lower. Maybe they're trying to suppress panic, maybe they're using the issue as cover for something else in Hubei. What isn't in doubt is that they are faking the numbers.
I am going to chime in here in that mathematical models are highly subject to variation depending on assumptions made by the modelers. In any epidemic, the true burden of disease is almost always indeterminable. The numbers are definitely off, but to jump to the conclusion of cover-up is on the basis of mathematical models that are at least partially based on the very same numbers and data that you doubt is just bad reasoning.
If you want to guess the source, I just literally went through this with major hepatitis A outbreaks in the United States.
i'm not seeing info on the actual virus in here or, the topic seems to be about everything but the virus.
where does it come from?, how and why it came to be?, are people out there that do not get infected even when exposed?, are the casualties people with underlying health issues only?, does it do cold climates?, does it immunize(?) people that were infected and pulled through? , etcetcetc.
comparing it with sars and mars, how does it look?.
On February 19 2020 14:48 xM(Z wrote: i'm not seeing info on the actual virus in here or, the topic seems to be about everything but the virus.
where does it come from?, how and why it came to be?, are people out there that do not get infected even when exposed?, are the casualties people with underlying health issues only?, does it do cold climates?, does it immunize(?) people that were infected and pulled through? , etcetcetc.
comparing it with sars and mars, how does it look?.
Based on my limited knowledge of the virus so far (but reading up on it a lot)
It originated in a wet market in Wuhan, China
It came to be due to the close proximity of humans and live animals that wouldn't typically live that way, meaning the virus had an exponentially larger number of chances to jump between species and potentially mutate into something which can get into humans
Too early to tell
Primarily the casualties seem to be mainly older people or people with underlying health issues (respiratory, diabetes etc.), but not exclusively.
Like other coronaviruses, it seems to be a largely cold-weather flu-type virus, but it's not guaranteed that it couldn't survive or thrive in warmer climates or in summer.
Too early to tell, the immunity from successfully fighting off a virus differs based on the illness itself and it hasn't been around long enough.
I think the reason that there isn't more solid information on the virus is simply because it's still relatively new and experts don't want to go out on a limb speculating on the virus' characteristics. This forces people to be more cautious and keep an open mind.
While likely not your intention Travis, when I read the OP, the first thought I got was that you were thinking this was some doomsday scenario and attributing conspiracy series where there is likely none. Several people have commented on the numbers so I don't have much to add there. In terms of morality, last I checked, it was along the lines of 2% and if I recall properly, SARS was 10%. Not sure what MERS was, but I believe much closer to SARS or more than less. For now, the best thing everyone can do is wash their hands, keep their distance from sick folks and go about living their daily life as they have been. Panicking is the last thing one should be doing and from that perspective, this thread feels like an alarmists' dream lol.
On February 19 2020 14:48 xM(Z wrote: i'm not seeing info on the actual virus in here or, the topic seems to be about everything but the virus.
where does it come from?, how and why it came to be?, are people out there that do not get infected even when exposed?, are the casualties people with underlying health issues only?, does it do cold climates?, does it immunize(?) people that were infected and pulled through? , etcetcetc.
comparing it with sars and mars, how does it look?.
Why it came? Much like SARS, MERS, H1N1, avian flu etc... came, so did it lol. There's also been some conspiracy theories about this being manufactured by a certain country and released or that it escaped from some Chinese lab, but I'm not interested in going into that route. Not sure on the exposed but not infected part since I haven't really kept up, but so far, it seems like most people pull through with the most at risk of complications having pre-existing conditions. I say most since I vaguely recall a healthy 40+ year old guy dying, but more times than not, it's the elderly or those who are already sick.
They have already sequenced the virus afaik too. Now, in terms of treatment, there was a reported case in Thailand where they used a combination of flu med and 2 antivirals and the 74 year old women within 12 hours was feeling much better and could move and such again, but I haven't heard more information about that since. It's quite the interesting cocktail of meds, but quite expensive too: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1860329/woman-74-recovers-from-virus-after-thai-cocktail
"According to Mr Sathit, the woman was first treated with two anti-HIV medications -- lopinavir and ritonavir -- for five days, but failed to recover. Doctors at Rajvithi Hospital then added the flu drug oseltamivir to her prescription, leading to a marked improvement. Her severe pneumonia abated in 8-12 hours, and after 48 hours she tested negative for Covid-19.
She was given the cocktail of drugs for the next 10 days, and no trace of the virus was found in four subsequent tests over 20 days."
We'll probably get more information as time passes. There's also a long way to go and it's hard to tell where we are in terms of spread.
I comes from bats. But the is theory that and other animals acts as link between bats and humans. And they are trying to figure out what animal. My hairdresser told me it was snakes, and people eat snakes i china, and snake eats bats so guess it would make sense. But seen nothing official besides bats.
Regarding the spread and probability to catch or spread corona. The super carrier in Europa infected 11 people over several days for me that doesn't sound highly infectious, but still enough that if a person infected get on the metro system (1 person that had been in china did do that in London) we could have an unstoppable outbreak.
There's been 1 confirmed case in Belgium so far. The guy was quarantained and treated for 14 days, then released. The media outlets made a big fuzz about this guy now being the 'safest person in Belgium' since he had 'really high antibodies' and 'was immune'.
On February 19 2020 18:09 Laurens wrote: There's been 1 confirmed case in Belgium so far. The guy was quarantained and treated for 14 days, then released. The media outlets made a big fuzz about this guy now being the 'safest person in Belgium' since he had 'really high antibodies' and 'was immune'.
I'm not too worried tbh.
I read somewhere that you can be contaminated again even if you had it before, not sure how true that is though :o.
SInce I'm in Europe there aren't a lot of cases there and I believe we can handle it pretty fine so I'm not really worried.
Are we seriously at the point where "I read somewhere..." is worth posting?
There is so much misinformation and panic here. I expect this nonsense on Facebook, not TL. Your freaking hairdresser? Are you serious?
Close the thread, go read the WHO advisory and anything your local authorities have put out, and then go about your business. Qualifying wild rumours with "not sure how true that is" and "but seen nothing official" does not stop them being wild rumours.
imo, that info about the virus should've been in the OP and not the finger pointing, quasi-hysteric lines i had to read through.
looking for more likewise info, i found: "
Around the world, influenza remains a major killer. The past two flu seasons have been more severe than expected, said Michael Worobey, a co-author of the study and head of the University of Arizona's department of ecology and evolutionary biology. In the 2017-18 season, 80,000 people died in the U.S., more than in the swine flu pandemic of 2009, he said
which to me says a lot about people ability to asses risks based on what's been pushed by the media and/or what's trending.
also
A team that included some of the same UCLA and Arizona scientists reported in 2016 that exposure to influenza viruses during childhood gives people partial protection for the rest of their lives against distantly related influenza viruses. Biologists call the idea that past exposure to the flu virus determines a person's future response to infections "immunological imprinting."
overall, this seems to be blown out of proportion to me.
On February 19 2020 20:08 xM(Z wrote: imo, that info about the virus should've been in the OP and not the finger pointing, quasi-hysteric lines i had to read through.
Around the world, influenza remains a major killer. The past two flu seasons have been more severe than expected, said Michael Worobey, a co-author of the study and head of the University of Arizona's department of ecology and evolutionary biology. In the 2017-18 season, 80,000 people died in the U.S., more than in the swine flu pandemic of 2009, he said
which to me says a lot about people ability to asses risks based on what's been pushed by the media and/or what's trending.
A team that included some of the same UCLA and Arizona scientists reported in 2016 that exposure to influenza viruses during childhood gives people partial protection for the rest of their lives against distantly related influenza viruses. Biologists call the idea that past exposure to the flu virus determines a person's future response to infections "immunological imprinting."
overall, this seems to be blown out of proportion to me.
To you, and a couple people above.
If people think I am inciting panic, that's on them, not me. How someone reacts to information isn't my fault, I am just trying to give people an opportunity.
And yeah if we're fortunate the virus itself won't be a big deal(outside of China). But this is a big deal economically already. Like, it's literally too late. We will already have a recession as a result of this, at best. Is that the end of the world? No. But people who read "end of the world" from my post actually have an issue with their own anxiety and then project it onto others.
To you specifically, you're normally less quick to judge a situation. The comparison to influenza is ridiculous, and all I am going to say is for you to go do more research, because I respect you and know you will if you want to.
On February 19 2020 20:08 xM(Z wrote: imo, that info about the virus should've been in the OP and not the finger pointing, quasi-hysteric lines i had to read through.
looking for more likewise info, i found: "
Around the world, influenza remains a major killer. The past two flu seasons have been more severe than expected, said Michael Worobey, a co-author of the study and head of the University of Arizona's department of ecology and evolutionary biology. In the 2017-18 season, 80,000 people died in the U.S., more than in the swine flu pandemic of 2009, he said
which to me says a lot about people ability to asses risks based on what's been pushed by the media and/or what's trending.
also
A team that included some of the same UCLA and Arizona scientists reported in 2016 that exposure to influenza viruses during childhood gives people partial protection for the rest of their lives against distantly related influenza viruses. Biologists call the idea that past exposure to the flu virus determines a person's future response to infections "immunological imprinting."
overall, this seems to be blown out of proportion to me.
To you, and a couple people above.
If people think I am inciting panic, that's on them, not me. How someone reacts to information isn't my fault, I am just trying to give people an opportunity.
And yeah if we're fortunate the virus itself won't be a big deal(outside of China). But this is a big deal economically already. Like, it's literally too late. We will already have a recession as a result of this, at best. Is that the end of the world? No. But people who read "end of the world" from my post actually have an issue with their own anxiety and then project it onto others.
To you specifically, you're normally less quick to judge a situation. The comparison to influenza is ridiculous, and all I am going to say is for you to go do more research, because I respect you and know you will if you want to.
Which lines are "quasi-hysteric" anyways?
1) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
2) The actions of the CCP in China, in combination with the virus, is creating civil unrest in China. It is possible we may see large political events and maybe even an attempt at revolution in China. But it is also important to ask why China is taking the extreme actions that it is in response to the virus.
Those parts I guess?
Adding a few qualifiers such as ‘take this with a pinch of salt’ doesn’t mind wipe people to the stuff you’re throwing out there.
Not that you yourself are doing this, but the ‘I’m just asking questions’ form of presentation is a staple of how conspiracy theorists frame things and ‘I’m not telling you to believe x’ does not stop many people believing errant nonsense or unsubstantiated rumours.
You keep talking about a possible (global) governement conspiracy, an incoming pandemic, and now also an economic recession (or worse), and you're surprised people say you're inticing panic? While many things you say seem to be based on facts, the overall tone of your messaging is very much panic-heavy.
Numbers - it's a new virus, the testing machinery isn't ready. Thus they test only what they can handle. China cannot handle the amount of suspicious people. So, the question is - who do you wanna test? The dead? The alive? So, that's why and how the numbers "lie". Imagine they can handle 5k tests/day but since the virus is highly contagious and spreads like a wildfire they can have 10k/20k/80k(e.g.) daily increase in the group of people who "may have it but we can't tell". And of those people you want to test mostly the really sick people who have complications.
Quarantine - the virus has roughly 14-day long spread time when the contagious person isn't sick. On average this person can spread it to 4 - 8 people. Think about that.
The basic reproductive ratio(R0) is expected between 4 - 8 (flu is 2,5, ebola 1,5, mumps 5, chickenpox 10) and the number is still growing. The number means how many people can be infected on average by 1 infected person. The doubling time(the time in which the amount of sick people doubles in the early time of infection) is 6,2 days.
Just wanted to mention this. Should explain a lot. Sorry if it was already mentioned, but won't hurt to read it twice
Edit> the biggest obstacle is the up-to-14-day infection period when the infected person isn't showing any symptoms, that's the biggest issue currently AFAIK. (can be shorter than 14 days )
On February 19 2020 22:41 PoulsenB wrote: You keep talking about a possible (global) governement conspiracy, an incoming pandemic, and now also an economic recession (or worse), and you're surprised people say you're inticing panic? While many things you say seem to be based on facts, the overall tone of your messaging is very much panic-heavy.
Well, if you have any advice on how I can convey the exact same opinions without sounding as panic-heavy, I will take it to heart. But I've been trying. It's difficult to say the things I want to say without people receiving it that way.
Anyways my main goal is to get people's attention while not being dishonest to what I think, while simultaneously not trying to incite panic or fear. I feel like it's a difficult balancing act and it can also be tough because you end up getting a lot of shit for it when genuinely what I want is to help people. This topic may actually end up being really important for some people, but if I can't even get them to stop and start learning about it, then I will not be helping them.
Also I would love to add that the later you get infected the bigger the chance to survival. The reason for this is that the evolution of viruses removes the most deadly strains so the infected can survive longer and infect more people.
On February 19 2020 22:41 PoulsenB wrote: You keep talking about a possible (global) governement conspiracy, an incoming pandemic, and now also an economic recession (or worse), and you're surprised people say you're inticing panic?
Pretty much. It's funny that he's attributing it to people's anxiety or whatever when most people who posted in this thread are much more calm and are nowhere as concerned as he is. Furthermore, he's trying to act as a beacon of knowledge when there was barely any in the OP or in subsequent posts aside from a % or so.
If you want to make people see your side of the story, you have to post well and back things up with reputable sources. Stating things like "We will already have a recession as a result of this, at best." as a matter of fact without even backing it up will not help your case at all OP. You could've provided data to show that imports and exports and such have dropped due to coronavirus for instance. Also, that link you posted from Event 201 does not say anything about a coverup. If anything, what was said is common and logical. The whole thing can be literally summarized as: Combat any misinformation if it arises during an outbreak because that affects everything, including livelihood of folks, especially with the widespread use of social media.
So you want me to spend hours and hours to try to tell people something? How about no, i opened up a discussion and if they are interested then they can do some of the work too. My message is to try to get people interested.
On February 20 2020 02:38 travis wrote: So you want me to spend hours and hours to try to tell people something? How about no, i opened up a discussion and if they are interested then they can do some of the work too. My message is to try to get people interested.
What? This is a joke, right? You are the one who opened this thread and was trying to say that there is a chance that there are global conspiracies and a recession that is coming due to this virus, not us. The onus is on you to provide evidence to try and prove your statements, but so far, you have provided little.
1) While the subject of the Coronavirus is a very serious matter and definitely deserves a discussion thread, this one started off in a disastrous manner, has now become a train wreck, and did not deliver in the end.
2) To travis and anyone else, if you wish to open a discussion thread, the Opening Post needs to be rock solid. It cannot contain opinions and statements from unnamed sources. An opening post should provide solid facts that are backed up by sources that people can refer to.
3) The discussion taking place in this thread right now seems more like a breeding ground for conspiracy theory discussions and general fear mongering. If a new thread about this topic is opened, then let's try to focus more on facts and helping the public out, instead of making them needlessly fear for their lives.
EPT![[image loading]](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NCoV20200209_Hubei_China_ROW_cases.png#/media/File:NCoV20200209_Hubei_China_ROW_cases.png)
So, that's why and how the numbers "lie". Imagine they can handle 5k tests/day but since the virus is highly contagious and spreads like a wildfire they can have 10k/20k/80k(e.g.) daily increase in the group of people who "may have it but we can't tell". And of those people you want to test mostly the really sick people who have complications.
