I asked for my last thread on this topic to be closed. I don't think I was prepared to stand up for what I had to say, and also I think I could have been more succinct about what I had to say.
I'll try to keep it short, but mostly this is going to come out as a stream of consciousness.
First, I will say that it is surprising to me that there are not more (or any!) threads about this virus. Perhaps most people are not worried, and even more (especially outside of China) don't really know what is going on. If you do not know, I will educate you on some basic facts:
1) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
2) The actions of the CCP in China, in combination with the virus, is creating civil unrest in China. It is possible we may see large political events and maybe even an attempt at revolution in China. But it is also important to ask why China is taking the extreme actions that it is in response to the virus.
3) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense. There are many many reasons right now to doubt official numbers. I think it may be in people's best interest to consider the possibility that authorities might view suppression of panic and maximization of economy as more important than transparency. It's really really naive to think that those with the most power and influence in the world are both competent enough and caring enough to look out for you through all of the world's dangers.
To summarize, what I am getting at here, is that people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus. If you want to dismiss it by comparing it to other recent viral outbreaks, then actually do your due diligence and then compare actual statistics and information to that of other outbreaks. I am not trying to scare anyone, and I'd love for nothing to come of this. But the reality is right now that the state of the virus *currently* is going to have huge economic repercussions already, and these effects are going to be even more profound if the spread of the virus continues.
Let's open up a discussion. I am prepared to defend my position.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
The initially reported cases by China seemed to just reflect a 2.1% daily increase.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
1.) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
Is i understand it is one provins that has most quarantine. The hubei it has under 60 mio People a lot but not 10% of the worlds population.
What i find more disturbing is the way China uses technology to indentify potentiel victims and People that breach quarantine. For me it is like reading a sifi book.
1.) China is in turmoil. Take the following with a grain of salt, the number could be inaccurate, but I have seen multiple reports that about half of their population is in some state of quarantine. Meaning, about 10% of the world's population is currently in quarantine. Actually stop and think about that for a minute.
Is i understand it is one provins that has most quarantine. The hubei it has under 60 mio People a lot but not 10% of the worlds population.
What i find more disturbing is the way China uses technology to indentify potentiel victims and People that breach quarantine. For me it is like reading a sifi book.
Here is a NYTimes article which cites a number of 760 million in some form of quarantine:
I did read Your previous post before it was removed and i will say it was "quite" different to this one. I will also say this: -The reported cases make a lot sense given how seriously China and other countries are treating this issue. For example when American tourist in my city was showing symptoms they even purged clean the ambulance she was rushed into hospital. It later turned out she wasnt having coronavirus but the suspision was treated very seriously. -Like already pointed above only parts of China are under strict quarantine. -If have so many reasons to doubt official numbers please post them (the more the batter) I will also ask You - Are You currently in central China?? If not how are You getting Your information?
What's most troubling to me is that when you look at the map you have infections everywhere but Africa and South America, which is odd. I really hope we don't get a sudden update where half those continents are infected considering their population density and healthcare levels...
Another oddity is mainland China, where over a course of 1 day there was a 50% spike in the number of infected people (40k -> 60k), which would support claims of Chinese government skewing the numbers.
Also, China has changed the requirements to be considered an infection case. Basically, even if you test positive for the virus but don't show any symptoms you're not being reported. This is nuts, considering that nCov is contagious even in asymptomatic people which was proven in Germany (you can get infected before someone shows symptoms, during and after the symptoms have stopped so the person is potentially recovered but still contagious).
And a really nice insight into how it all started and the level of incompetence in China:
On February 19 2020 01:41 Silvanel wrote: I did read Your previous post before it was removed and i would say it was quite different to this one. I will say this: -The reported cases make a lot sense given how seriously China and other countries are treating this issue. For example when American tourist in my city was showing symptoms they even purged clean the ambulance she was rushed in to hospital
I disagree intensely on this. It may be the case that some areas or even some nations are giving this situation adequate levels of attention and resources, but there are so many examples of incompetence and negligence... sometimes to the point of almost seeming intentional. But this potentially invokes a very lengthy discussion filled with anecdotes rather than hard information. The kind of response you are giving an example of is the kind of response we need, but this does not seem to be the typical response we are seeing. I am hoping maybe other people can come in and help me out with facts and information, but if not I will do my best to get some examples of more atrocious examples of negligence.
Also another example is that the testing in the U.S.A. is awful to the point of being weird. For some reason the CDC insisted on doing all the testing themselves (in atlanta), and claimed ~48 hour turnover. The real turnover time quickly turned into 7days+, sometimes with no published result at all. Eventually the CDC sent out tests to various labs to use in state/region. Guess what? Turns out the tests were defunct. They were faulty. Then it went back to all tests having to be done in Atlanta.
-Like already pointed above only parts of China are under strict quarantine.
I have been finding more information about 760 million in quarantine. Yes, that is parts. Huge parts. 56 million were in quarantine almost a month ago. In late January they started piling huge mounds of dirt over roadways in and out of Huwan, and then started doing it to other cities as well.
-If have so many reasons to doubt official numbers please post them (the more the batter)
I will but its much easier to do during the process of discussion and debate.
I will also ask You - Are You currently in central China?? If not how are You getting Your information?
No. My information has come from a multitude of sources, including youtube video leaks from China, news articles, discussion or r/china_flu and r/coronavirus, and a coronavirus discord. I've been following it closely for about a month now. Obviously any given source should be taken with a grain of salt. But, when you start seeing the same information from many many unrelated sources, it starts becoming overwhelmingly obvious when certain things are more or less likely to be true.
Another oddity is mainland China, where over a course of 1 day there was a 50% spike in the number of infected people (40k -> 60k), which would support claims of Chinese government skewing the numbers.
BNO has also done a good job of tracking cases for a long time now as well, just as an alternate source:
However.. these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. China has been using tricks to avoid confirming cases so the numbers look better. One of the first things China did was devote large amounts of resources to keep people from discussing the virus on social media, and they have only continued to become more and more oppressive in how they do so.
As for the spike in confirmations, I have heard from some sources that it was due to a switch to using CT scans for infection confirmation. I have heard from other sources, however, that it is the result of letting international teams come in and test people - which has forced some more transparency. I haven't had enough time to research and get a feel for if either of these reasons are the case or not.
people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus
I guess my main question is what exactly do you think people(outside Asia) should be doing about it? Besides the recommend wash your hands and do your best not to touch your face while outside what can people do?
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
To play devils advocate a little bit on why the numbers jump so much over a short period of time, these types of diseases often spread exponentially, so while at the start the spread is slow, it very quickly becomes a vertical line straight up in terms of the number of people infected. I would never trust China to reveal the exact amount of people infected or the seriousness of the disease but we also shouldn't immediately think it's a conspiracy when numbers jump suddenly, that's sort of to be expected.
people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus
I guess my main question is what exactly do you think people(outside Asia) should be doing about it? Besides the recommend wash your hands and do your best not to touch your face while outside what can people do?
don't go to work if you're sick (not just with the coronavirus) Nothing else really.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
I wasn't thinking of a particular claim. The issue is that even by the numbers claimed by China, the growth rate of the virus is really really high. It's very contagious. But we had already let people in from Wuhan well before we issued a travel ban. And then we were still letting in people from other parts of China. And later people are still coming in from China by going through other countries first. This is the case for most countries.
A couple weeks ago we started seeing confirmed cases pop up internationally. But then suddenly their growth stopped. The growth should be continuing. There should still be more cases. Why has confirmed cases stopped so sharply?
One answer, and the answer I hope, is that the virus isn't nearly as contagious as first estimated. But that answer makes no sense because we have a lot of good data on how contagious it is, we've basically confirmed it to within certain confidences.
Another answer is that countries have actually done a great job stopping the spread of it. I'd love to believe that is the case. But there is a lot of information coming out that contradicts that this is the case. Many countries have not taken it seriously whatsoever.
The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
It's hard for me to address everything that could be discussed involving this because there is simply an overwhelming amount of information out there. Those that have their interest piqued, I'd recommend they start research on reddit.com/r/china_flu. Those that think nothing will come of this in their hometown, I hope you're right. Well really there will be economic impacts already regardless of what happens. But in terms of the virus, I hope you're right. But I still just ask people to keep their eyes and ears open, because you may start seeing signs in the next 2-3 weeks that make you change your mind, but are still early enough that allow you to prepare.
On February 19 2020 02:12 OmniEulogy wrote: To play devils advocate a little bit on why the numbers jump so much over a short period of time, these types of diseases often spread exponentially, so while at the start the spread is slow, it very quickly becomes a vertical line straight up in terms of the number of people infected. I would never trust China to reveal the exact amount of people infected or the seriousness of the disease but we also shouldn't immediately think it's a conspiracy when numbers jump suddenly, that's sort of to be expected.
Says it is due to changed ways of reporting if that matches your timing. There are other sources confirming changed reporting standards if that isn't a good enough source.
people need to start paying attention to what is going on with this virus
I guess my main question is what exactly do you think people(outside Asia) should be doing about it? Besides the recommend wash your hands and do your best not to touch your face while outside what can people do?
Social distancing and behave like a germophobe. I think people should keep going to work if they aren't sick and their work isn't a fluff job, or if they will need the money. The exception is if they are elderly, immunocompromised, or their work involves large amounts of people in a small space.
If you want some more info about your best options, they are discussed pretty thoroughly in a prepping document someone has made here:
On February 19 2020 02:53 travis wrote: The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
For large regions of the world this is very unlikely. A more likely case is that people aren't taking it seriously and thus treat it as a normal flu. The infected being lucky in getting mild symptoms.
Personally I think the second case of good containment procedures is more likely in the places that had few reported cases. Based on how people around me discuss it the single case here was hot news and people got worried. So under-reporting seems very unlikely.
Of course one or two of the areas will likely expand and need a second round of isolation to slow it down to a propagation rate of below 1 which means it dies out. That can be managed with active cases in 2 or perhaps 3 digits. It is when it goes past that it becomes very hard.
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
I wasn't thinking of a particular claim. The issue is that even by the numbers claimed by China, the growth rate of the virus is really really high. It's very contagious. But we had already let people in from Wuhan well before we issued a travel ban. And then we were still letting in people from other parts of China. And later people are still coming in from China by going through other countries first. This is the case for most countries.
A couple weeks ago we started seeing confirmed cases pop up internationally. But then suddenly their growth stopped. The growth should be continuing. There should still be more cases. Why has confirmed cases stopped so sharply?
One answer, and the answer I hope, is that the virus isn't nearly as contagious as first estimated. But that answer makes no sense because we have a lot of good data on how contagious it is, we've basically confirmed it to within certain confidences.
Another answer is that countries have actually done a great job stopping the spread of it. I'd love to believe that is the case. But there is a lot of information coming out that contradicts that this is the case. Many countries have not taken it seriously whatsoever.
The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
It's hard for me to address everything that could be discussed involving this because there is simply an overwhelming amount of information out there. Those that have their interest piqued, I'd recommend they start research on reddit.com/r/china_flu. Those that think nothing will come of this in their hometown, I hope you're right. Well really there will be economic impacts already regardless of what happens. But in terms of the virus, I hope you're right. But I still just ask people to keep their eyes and ears open, because you may start seeing signs in the next 2-3 weeks that make you change your mind, but are still early enough that allow you to prepare.
So your thinking that its not a situation of containment successfully working the in the West because of a limited number of initial cases but a grand conspiracy to suppress the real extend.
So people in the West are getting sick, developing symptoms, going to see a doctor and the doctor hides the truth because they have been told to do so by 'somebody'. In dozens of countries and involving tens of thousands of doctors who all should be really against allowing a virus to spread freely?
On February 19 2020 00:38 travis wrote: 3.) Reported numbers all around the world (in terms of confirmed cases) do not make much sense. It would be super fantastic if the numbers reported are at all accurate, but the numbers simply don't make sense.
What evidence would you provide of this?
Specific to the topic of reported numbers, all I can provide is numerous prediction models from reputable sources. Would you like me to spend some time compiling some? I would be glad to do so.
No, no need to compile sources, just send the one you were thinking of when you make the claim the numbers don't make sense. A news article from a reputable source would also work.
I wasn't thinking of a particular claim. The issue is that even by the numbers claimed by China, the growth rate of the virus is really really high. It's very contagious. But we had already let people in from Wuhan well before we issued a travel ban. And then we were still letting in people from other parts of China. And later people are still coming in from China by going through other countries first. This is the case for most countries.
A couple weeks ago we started seeing confirmed cases pop up internationally. But then suddenly their growth stopped. The growth should be continuing. There should still be more cases. Why has confirmed cases stopped so sharply?
One answer, and the answer I hope, is that the virus isn't nearly as contagious as first estimated. But that answer makes no sense because we have a lot of good data on how contagious it is, we've basically confirmed it to within certain confidences.
Another answer is that countries have actually done a great job stopping the spread of it. I'd love to believe that is the case. But there is a lot of information coming out that contradicts that this is the case. Many countries have not taken it seriously whatsoever.
The third possibility is that the disease is spreading, and we aren't being told. Obviously everyone hopes this is not the case, but we shouldn't discount it just because we don't like it. We don't have to solidify our beliefs to only one possibility, we should remain hopeful but cautious and skeptical. It is absolutely naive to think that authorities will always look out for your interest in the way that you think is best.
It's hard for me to address everything that could be discussed involving this because there is simply an overwhelming amount of information out there. Those that have their interest piqued, I'd recommend they start research on reddit.com/r/china_flu. Those that think nothing will come of this in their hometown, I hope you're right. Well really there will be economic impacts already regardless of what happens. But in terms of the virus, I hope you're right. But I still just ask people to keep their eyes and ears open, because you may start seeing signs in the next 2-3 weeks that make you change your mind, but are still early enough that allow you to prepare.
So your thinking that its not a situation of containment successfully working the in the West because of a limited number of initial cases but a grand conspiracy to suppress the real extend.
So people in the West are getting sick, developing symptoms, going to see a doctor and the doctor hides the truth because they have been told to do so by 'somebody'. In dozens of countries and involving tens of thousands of doctors who all should be really against allowing a virus to spread freely?
I remember reading something about two dozen of cases in Munich last week. Haven't heard much about them since, but there would be plenty of reasons to disclose that it isn't a big deal if it weren't.
Actually found a source. Just 8 it seems. But it's an old article considering the urgency and I don't know how it goes from flu-like symptoms to sudden collapse.
Either way I wouldn't dismiss the chance that this thing gets contained before it spreads too much.
EPT
