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Here is another post for those who think it impossible the authorities might not be completely transparent about a potential pandemic.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/recommendations.html
The above link is for Event 201 (you can watch the videos if you're super interested). It was put on by 'The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation'. They essentially roleplay a pandemic, and assess the response. This event occured 1-2 months before the Coronavirus outbreak.
Anyways I am linking it for #6 and #7. Well hell, I'll just quote them. I added the bolding.
International organizations should prioritize reducing economic impacts of epidemics and pandemics. Much of the economic harm resulting from a pandemic is likely to be due to counterproductive behavior of individuals, companies, and countries. For example, actions that lead to disruption of travel and trade or that change consumer behavior can greatly damage economies. In addition to other response activities, an increase in and reassessment of pandemic financial support will certainly be needed in a severe pandemic as many sectors of society may need financial support during or after a severe pandemic, including healthcare institutions, essential businesses, and national governments Furthermore, the ways in which these existing funds can now be used are limited. The International Health Regulations prioritize both minimizing public health risks and avoiding unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade. But there will also be a need to identify critical nodes of the banking system and global and national economies that are too essential to fail – there are some that are likely to need emergency international financial support as well. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, regional development banks, national governments, foundations, and others should explore ways to increase the amount and availability of funds in a pandemic and ensure that they can be flexibly used where needed.
Governments and the private sector should assign a greater priority to developing methods to combat mis- and disinformation prior to the next pandemic response. Governments will need to partner with traditional and social media companies to research and develop nimble approaches to countering misinformation. This will require developing the ability to flood media with fast, accurate, and consistent information. Public health authorities should work with private employers and trusted community leaders such as faith leaders, to promulgate factual information to employees and citizens. Trusted, influential private-sector employers should create the capacity to readily and reliably augment public messaging, manage rumors and misinformation, and amplify credible information to support emergency public communications. National public health agencies should work in close collaboration with WHO to create the capability to rapidly develop and release consistent health messages. For their part, media companies should commit to ensuring that authoritative messages are prioritized and that false messages are suppressed including though the use of technology.
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On February 19 2020 06:58 Manifesto7 wrote:
Several doctors in the hospital just down the road from where I work have it, and it has spread to their families, including their school-aged son. Yesterday the school nurse printed information about sanitation and emergency phone numbers for all the staff and students.
The real difference is in tourism, where many areas of Japan including where I work have seen a drop of 30-50% in tourism. Chinese tourists are a huge part of regional economies, so it is a real crunch.
Also, when I went into Osaka a couple weeks ago, about 95% of people were wearing masks, as opposed to the normal 50%.
Interesting to know, confirms my suspicion that the virus is in the break-out phase in Japan.
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On February 19 2020 07:39 Amarok wrote:The numbers out of China absolutely are being covered up. There's a mathematical model that predicts the number of deaths with a variance of .99. That simply isn't possible in an epidemic. The data is a simulation. Why they're faking the numbers is anyone's guess. Maybe deaths are higher, maybe they're lower. Maybe they're trying to suppress panic, maybe they're using the issue as cover for something else in Hubei. What isn't in doubt is that they are faking the numbers. https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840
(over)fitting on serially dependent data gets you a high R^2 and is not indicative of the data coming from a simul.
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All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
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On February 19 2020 08:18 Puosu wrote:(over)fitting on serially dependent data gets you a high R^2 and is not indicative of the data coming from a simul.
Nothing gets you an r2 of 0.99. A high r2 in public health is like 0.7, 0.8.
A near-perfect correlation is extremely suspicious.
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Northern Ireland26265 Posts
On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now.
Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
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On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
Nothing is 100% bulletproof, but the virus almost always is attached to a particle that it "rides" to get into you. A particle filter makes the odds of contagion lower; n95 is good n99 is better, nuclear mask is best. Generic masks with no protection (I think surgical ones fall here) are better than nothing but not that useful.
Covering eyes (even with swim googles lol) and surgical gloves for hands are also safe bets if stuff gets really out of hand.
Q to travis or anyone who knows: It says US official cases are 30 from 15 now. Are those people from the cruise properly isolated, or are there new cases?
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On February 19 2020 09:30 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway. Nothing is 100% bulletproof, but the virus almost always is attached to a particle that it "rides" to get into you. A particle filter makes the odds of contagion lower; n95 is good n99 is better, nuclear mask is best. Generic masks with no protection (I think surgical ones fall here) are better than nothing but not that useful. Covering eyes (even with swim googles lol) and surgical gloves for hands are also safe bets if stuff gets really out of hand. Q to travis or anyone who knows: It says US official cases are 30 from 15 now. Are those people from the cruise properly isolated, or are there new cases? FWIW None of these are any good without frequent replacement. They should be replaced many times per day for real protection.
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Are there 2 questions being asked here? if you are asking if it rose to 30 because of the cruise - I would guess yes but I'd want to know where you are getting the 30 number from because I am still seeing 15. I'm under the impression that "officially" they mark all of the cruise ship infections as being Japanese? But maybe someone can confirm or deny that.
Are they properly isolated? Here is a statement about that.
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1229890821203398656?s=21
My opinion? It's been shown that 14 days may not be long enough. But whether or not that justifies making them wait longer, I don't know.
Edit: and of course masks help. Putting your hand in front of your face while you are around people would help. Looking away from other people's faces would help. It's all relative. I am sure all kinds of masks are decent layers of defense. It's not like the virus is literally just floating in the air everywhere we go, it might float around a little bit but it mostly gets transmitted by larger drops, as other people are saying.
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On February 19 2020 09:30 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway. Nothing is 100% bulletproof, but the virus almost always is attached to a particle that it "rides" to get into you. A particle filter makes the odds of contagion lower; n95 is good n99 is better, nuclear mask is best. Generic masks with no protection (I think surgical ones fall here) are better than nothing but not that useful. Covering eyes (even with swim googles lol) and surgical gloves for hands are also safe bets if stuff gets really out of hand. Q to travis or anyone who knows: It says US official cases are 30 from 15 now. Are those people from the cruise properly isolated, or are there new cases?
US cases are up from the cruise ship. 14 imports I think there, maybe 15. Different sources say different things.
Biggest concern for me is hopsitals and how that plays into it. This is a long infection. Hospitalization often takes 5-8 days, and usually onset of respiratory difficulties wasn't until around days 7-8. with ARDS beginning shortly thereafter. This can easily last a period of 1-2 weeks, longer in severe cases needing full ventilation.
Our hospitals struggle to deal with flu surges, and sometimes even to treat cancer patients. If we start having thousands of new patients needing this kind of support...the hospital system is NOT going to be able to meet this demand. Take away that kind of support, and the CFR is going to rise, possible drastically.
This is especially worrying when you consider that around 20% of cases are having severe pnuemonia, and around 70% are so are showing mild pnuemonia. Granted, these numbers likely represent an upperbound as many estimates suggest actual cases could be an order of magnitude higher, with those mild ones being unreported...but even so that's 5-10% developing pneumonia with a disease as infection as flu.
I'd love to hear more about the prep work being done to handle patient swell if we do indeed see the seeding of local epidemics over the coming month and a half.
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On February 19 2020 06:58 Manifesto7 wrote:
Several doctors in the hospital just down the road from where I work have it, and it has spread to their families, including their school-aged son. Yesterday the school nurse printed information about sanitation and emergency phone numbers for all the staff and students.
The real difference is in tourism, where many areas of Japan including where I work have seen a drop of 30-50% in tourism. Chinese tourists are a huge part of regional economies, so it is a real crunch.
Also, when I went into Osaka a couple weeks ago, about 95% of people were wearing masks, as opposed to the normal 50%.
Asians with their masks... So far it's been pretty much confirmed that masks do not help against this virus. It is aerosol with confirmed fecal-oral transmission. They've also found it on door handles in hospitals and even doctors wearing proper masks, goggles and gloves got infected.
I hope you'll be all right Mani. Best wishes to you and your family.
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On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
I am going off the manufacturer's guidelines here: https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/409903O/respiratory-protection-against-biohazards.pdf
My best understanding is that surgical masks decrease your transmission to others by greatly reducing the range and distribution of droplets and aerosols when you breath, cough, or sneeze. However they are not very effective at filtering out droplets and aerosols from others. So even if you believe that you currently not infected, it is good to have everybody (including yourself) playing a part in wearing a mask at all times so that the overall rate of transmission is reduced.
Respirator filters ranging from N95 to P100 are all fairly effective in both filtering out outside pathogens and your own pathogens as well.
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konadora
Singapore66358 Posts
i'm not sure how the West is handling it but here in Singapore, we're handling it pretty fine. there are some small clusters here and there but contact tracing has been on point, tracing most of the people within 24 hours. we practice self quarantine and isolation when we can, and the only reason why we are so high up on the global list of number of infected people is because we're being extra stringent on finding out who has been infected and following up on contact tracing.
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On February 19 2020 10:41 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway. I am going off the manufacturer's guidelines here: https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/409903O/respiratory-protection-against-biohazards.pdfMy best understanding is that surgical masks decrease your transmission to others by greatly reducing the range and distribution of droplets and aerosols when you breath, cough, or sneeze. However they are not very effective at filtering out droplets and aerosols from others. So even if you believe that you currently not infected, it is good to have everybody (including yourself) playing a part in wearing a mask at all times so that the overall rate of transmission is reduced. Respirator filters ranging from N95 to P100 are all fairly effective in both filtering out outside pathogens and your own pathogens as well.
Filtering what you put out is nice. Keep in mind though that this virus can infect you without entering your respiratory tract from what I managed to gather so masks do help prevent you spreading it but don't help much in terms of getting infected yourself.
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On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway.
It's not an airborne virus like measles, so they won't really protect the wearers from catching the virus.
But they actually help a little, when infected people wear them, to protect others from contagious saliva and snot droplets.
edit:
On February 19 2020 12:44 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2020 10:41 Chairman Ray wrote:On February 19 2020 09:12 Wombat_NI wrote:On February 19 2020 08:27 Chairman Ray wrote:
All surgical masks and respirators are sold out everywhere around me in the US. Anything that we can find on shelves is immediately shipped to Asia because they really need it right now. I hope a major outbreak does not happen here because we're really ill-equipped right now. Do they even work? I was under the impression that all but properly high-end respirators basically did nothing to prevent its spread anyway. I am going off the manufacturer's guidelines here: https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/409903O/respiratory-protection-against-biohazards.pdfMy best understanding is that surgical masks decrease your transmission to others by greatly reducing the range and distribution of droplets and aerosols when you breath, cough, or sneeze. However they are not very effective at filtering out droplets and aerosols from others. So even if you believe that you currently not infected, it is good to have everybody (including yourself) playing a part in wearing a mask at all times so that the overall rate of transmission is reduced. Respirator filters ranging from N95 to P100 are all fairly effective in both filtering out outside pathogens and your own pathogens as well. Filtering what you put out is nice. Keep in mind though that this virus can infect you without entering your respiratory tract from what I managed to gather so masks do help prevent you spreading it but don't help much in terms of getting infected yourself.
Note to self: Reading a thread to the last post is always a good idea to avoid looking like a moron, by posting the exact same answer right underneath the previous one 
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On February 19 2020 07:39 Amarok wrote:The numbers out of China absolutely are being covered up. There's a mathematical model that predicts the number of deaths with a variance of .99. That simply isn't possible in an epidemic. The data is a simulation. Why they're faking the numbers is anyone's guess. Maybe deaths are higher, maybe they're lower. Maybe they're trying to suppress panic, maybe they're using the issue as cover for something else in Hubei. What isn't in doubt is that they are faking the numbers. https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840
I am going to chime in here in that mathematical models are highly subject to variation depending on assumptions made by the modelers. In any epidemic, the true burden of disease is almost always indeterminable. The numbers are definitely off, but to jump to the conclusion of cover-up is on the basis of mathematical models that are at least partially based on the very same numbers and data that you doubt is just bad reasoning.
If you want to guess the source, I just literally went through this with major hepatitis A outbreaks in the United States.
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i'm not seeing info on the actual virus in here or, the topic seems to be about everything but the virus.
where does it come from?, how and why it came to be?, are people out there that do not get infected even when exposed?, are the casualties people with underlying health issues only?, does it do cold climates?, does it immunize(?) people that were infected and pulled through? , etcetcetc.
comparing it with sars and mars, how does it look?.
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On February 19 2020 14:48 xM(Z wrote:
i'm not seeing info on the actual virus in here or, the topic seems to be about everything but the virus.
where does it come from?, how and why it came to be?, are people out there that do not get infected even when exposed?, are the casualties people with underlying health issues only?, does it do cold climates?, does it immunize(?) people that were infected and pulled through? , etcetcetc.
comparing it with sars and mars, how does it look?.
Based on my limited knowledge of the virus so far (but reading up on it a lot)
It originated in a wet market in Wuhan, China
It came to be due to the close proximity of humans and live animals that wouldn't typically live that way, meaning the virus had an exponentially larger number of chances to jump between species and potentially mutate into something which can get into humans
Too early to tell
Primarily the casualties seem to be mainly older people or people with underlying health issues (respiratory, diabetes etc.), but not exclusively.
Like other coronaviruses, it seems to be a largely cold-weather flu-type virus, but it's not guaranteed that it couldn't survive or thrive in warmer climates or in summer.
Too early to tell, the immunity from successfully fighting off a virus differs based on the illness itself and it hasn't been around long enough.
I think the reason that there isn't more solid information on the virus is simply because it's still relatively new and experts don't want to go out on a limb speculating on the virus' characteristics. This forces people to be more cautious and keep an open mind.
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EPT
