Ukraine Crisis - Page 560

On May 22 2014 02:37 Mc wrote:
@tadL

You're really over-estimating the USA/Europe's influence in Ukraine.

1.) threats of sanctions, freezing of funds, against corrupt Oligarchs/politicians.
2.) English language media which only some Ukrainians would read (and those Ukrainians are usually middle-class pro-Westerners already).
3.) funds going to "pro-democracy" NGOs that are inherently pro-Western and anti-Russian (since Russia is inherently anti-democracy, and the West is democratic).
4.) the "promise of a better future" - i.e. join the West and we give you free trade, possibility of democratic and economic development.
5.) Bail out money and investment.

Russia has a few key advantages for more direct interference:
1.) Russian language media is read/watched by most(?) Ukrainians (especially in the East).
2.) FSB has strong connections to some Ukrainian politicians, oligarchs, and SBU.
3.) Decades of experience in 'controlling'/'manipulating' Ukraine
4.) Near total control over Ukrainian access to natural gas.
5.) A strong national/political desire to have Ukraine be in their camp (a lot of Western countries begrudgingly are forced into supporting Ukraine without an inherent desire to do so)
6.) Strong cultural and language ties.

On May 22 2014 03:26 Mc wrote:


I think Ukrainians are actually quite free to choose. Look at their most recent elections. First Yuschenko (pro-West), then Yankuvych (pro-Russia), and now probably Poroshenko (pro-West but more moderate).

To me the issue is that the country is split on whether they want to be part of Europe or not. They elect a pro-European (like Yuschenko) and nothing changes. So the pro-West half of the country doesn't vote as vigorously as they did previously, and the pro-Russian candidate wins. Then the pro-Russian candidate fucks the country up, and everybody is ready to vote pro-West again.

So I feel like Ukrainians are free to choose freely, but no matter who they choose corruption is so endemic in Ukraine that it doesn't really change anything.

Washington (CNN) -- The United States has seen the first preliminary signs that Russian forces may be preparing to move away from Ukraine's eastern border, a U.S. defense official told CNN on Wednesday.

"There is some evidence of preparations for potential movement," the official said. "At a few locations, there is evidence of troops packing up, but nothing has moved yet."

The official declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information. The official also declined to specify the locations and emphasized that actual movement has not yet occurred.

This latest assessment was made days after Russia formally announced it had ordered its troops off the border. And it comes ahead of Ukraine's presidential election scheduled for Sunday.

Outside of the fuel and natural resources sector, very little of the Russian industrial system could compete internationally. Ok throw in military materiel, research and defense exports. Outside of that, you’ve got a kind of massive oil (and gas) sheikdom in disguise. Revenues from raw material sales abroad subsidize the rest of the economy.

On May 22 2014 12:28 marigoldran wrote:
That's no excuse. Look at China and Singapore. They didn't start with the tech base they have today.

Another example: the tech industry in India.

Even Communism isn't an excuse for Russia's shoddy economy. China was communist too, and India was socialist, and remains socialist.

The Slavic rate of economic growth is even worse than the Hindu rate of growth. When your economy's even worse than India's, that says something.

On May 22 2014 13:38 Mc wrote:
@Judicator
I misspoke - by "part of Europe", I meant a normal Western country (i.e. semi-functioning democracy, less corruption, GDP per person on the scale of Europe, not Africa, etc.). Obviously, no one is arguing for EU membership until Ukraine becomes more of a normal Western country, and Ukraine is probably decades away from that.

Yes, US money is important but in the case of Ukraine, Russia offered more. Also, Russia simply "cares" about Ukraine a shit ton more than the US.

On May 22 2014 14:01 Greem wrote:
@J.Habibi

Good Job. Floating this thread you keep, your motto this must be.

On May 23 2014 04:35 zatic wrote:
Alright guys, please behave from now on.

Is someone kind enough to provide a wrap up of the events of today?

Violence flared in volatile eastern Ukraine ahead of the country's presidential elections, with Kiev calling for an urgent U.N. security council meeting Thursday after a deadly assault on troops by pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk.

At least 11 Ukrainian soldiers were killed by pro-Russian separatists who ambushed their checkpoint in the Donetsk region - the deadliest attack in weeks.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said after the attack that Russia was intentionally trying to destabilize the elections and called for an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting.

Hours after the assault on the checkpoint, rebel leaders in neighboring Luhansk announced they were to impose martial law until government troops ceased their offensive.

Thursday's events underscore the deep divisions Ukraine still faces ahead of Sunday's presidential vote, an election separatists have pledged to derail.

Bodies covered with blankets lie in a field near the village of Blahodatne, eastern Ukraine, on Thursday as a Ukrainian soldier smokes next to his armored infantry vehicle. At least 11 Ukrainian troops were killed and about 30 others were wounded when Pro-Russians attacked a military checkpoint, the deadliest raid in the weeks of fighting in eastern Ukraine.
At the scene of the ambush near the village of Blahodatne, journalists from The Associated Press said they saw the dead bodies of at least 11 government troops and three charred armored personnel carriers. About 30 other soldiers were injured, some of them seriously, and state helicopters had arrived to transport the wounded, the AP said.

A rebel commander in the nearby town of Horlivka claimed responsibility, telling the news agency: "We destroyed a checkpoint of the fascist Ukrainian army deployed on the land the Donetsk Republic."

The commander, who wore a balaclava and identified himself by his nom de guerre, "Bes," Russian for "demon," displayed heavy weaponry taken from the men that said were "trophies."

Pro-Russian separatists have occupied large areas of eastern Ukraine in opposition to the Western-backed Kiev government that was imposed after the ouster of the Moscow-friendly President Vikor Yanukovych.

Following a referendum earlier this month, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions set up so-called "people's republics," declaring their independence from Kiev and demanding to be annexed by Russia.

Hours after the ambush Thursday, members of the Luhansk People's Republic said their leader was to announce that the region would be under martial law until Ukraine withdrew its troops.

"Martial law will be in force starting from May 22 and until the Kyiv authorities withdraw their troops from the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic," spokesman Volodymyr Inohorodskykh told Interfax Ukraine.

Authorities in Kiev see Sunday's vote as a chance to defuse tensions and stabilize the country - but have acknowledged it might be difficult to stage the poll in some of the more volatile parts of the country.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Source.

As for the situation in Odessa, where reportedly clashes at a trade union building in the Black Sea city sparked a fire that killed and wounded dozens of people earlier this month, Mr. Šimonović said that what seems to be “beyond doubt is now the number of victims: 48 victims – six of them – and all of them were among pro-Ukrainians, died from gunshot wounds.”

“That happened previously during conflicts between the two groups in the centre of the city,” he said, explaining that the other victims were anti-Government protesters that were either in the Trade Union building that were affected by the fire, or people who were jumping from the building to escape the consequences.

“About [the] causes of the fire, it is being examined and it's very technical, however, it is also beyond doubt that Molotov cocktails have been thrown by both sides, flying from the building and into the building," he said, telling reporters that there were five investigations under way on the events, including those being carried out by national authorities in Kyiv and by independent bodies.
Source.

Russia's President Putin has said he will respect the outcome of Ukraine's presidential election on Sunday.

Speaking at an economic conference in St Petersburg on Friday, Mr Putin also said he believed Ukraine had descended into "full-scale civil war".
BBC

On May 24 2014 01:35 nunez wrote:
apparently ca. a week ago rus and ukr media reported on preliminary results of the investigation into the kiev shootings. the head of the investigative commission, moskal, stated that the bullets and cartridges found do not match berkut weaponry, and that the first shot were made at the police. previously monitor reported that the same bullets were used against both protestors and police, this was also stated in the leaked paet call. he also drew comparisons to the investigation into the jfk assasination, maybe showing his hand a bit early.