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On March 08 2014 11:54 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2014 11:49 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:45 oneofthem wrote:
on the russian side of things, idk how strong nazis are getting in ukraine but it does seem to be a serious issue. the u.s. approach to it seems to be that 'we'll take care of that later' and a bit of dirty laundry not aired. but for things to move forward this element has to be dealt with.
the confrontation though, unless russia wants to march onto kiev and throw these dudes out, won't solve it. Well, we will get to see in May how strong the fascist element is. Ideally the current government in Kyiv will highlight to all Ukrainians that its mainly Russian-Ukrainians soldiers and sailors who are being threatened and blockaded in Crimea and arent surrendering/betraying their oath to the country and so make a clear distinction between Putin's fascist state and the common Russian who is stuck in it. But no doubt about it, the fascists could just go on tv and blame it all on Russians instead of Putin. But again -- at its most popular -- the fascist party was the 5th most popular party in Ukraine, after even the Communists. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)#2012_elections:_further_supportSvoboda (National Socialist Party of Ukraine) received nearly 11% last election, and most of that came from Western Ukraine, whereas it received <1% in Eastern Ukraine (where most Russians are).
1. Making them the 5th most popular in that election, behind the Communists. Before Timoshenkos arrest in 2010 those voters for the most part were hers. And the new party -- the reformist Udar -- that also made its debut in these elections went from nowhere to being the 3rd most popular party.
If Eastern Ukraine splinters off to Russia you can expect Svoboda to become even more powerful than they all ready are (who occupy many top Government positions right now).
Ministry of Agriculture, Ecology, the vice prime minister and the temporary solicitor general. No defense, no internal security, no economy, no ethnic relations protfolio
Such a lovely technocrat ready to indebt his nation to IMF lords. Since Ukraine is already in debt and the choice is between reforms that might allow Ukraine to exist its current trajectory as the Bolivia of Europe onto the Polish trajectory its worth trying.
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On March 08 2014 11:57 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2014 11:39 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:36 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:On March 08 2014 11:26 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:12 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote:
After March 16 it won't be part of Ukraine just. And troops won't be heroically surrendering because they will be considered as invaders.
Ya, so they will be killed. The crisis isnt ending on March 16. No, they won't be killed. If they show anywhere near the prudence that they have been showing so far, they will leave Crimea. Huh? They have been under intense pressure to either surrender or 'join' the Crimean 'self defense force' and they rejected either. The only way they are being moved off those bases is in body bags. By prudence, I meant not doing something that would certainly get them killed. Surrendering or refusing to join Crimean militias while the territory is still technically Ukrainian is not anywhere so severe as it will be when Crimea becomes Russian territory. When that happens, then you can expect violent retaliation from Russia. The situation will go from Ukrainian soldiers being non-violently bullied by Russians in Ukrainian territory to Ukrainian soldiers being invaders of Russian territory. Two completely different scenarios. I'm sure Ukrainian soldiers are aware of this, and cognizant of the difference in circumstances, will promptly leave if they don't wish to be imprisoned or killed. The only people who believe its Russian territory is Putin and his Quisling in Crimea. The Ukrainian soldiers will treat it as Ukrainian territory -- since most of them are from Crimea and view it naturally as their homeland -- and continue to defend it. Then they will be violently attacked and killed.
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I am pretty sure that the Russians can remove them without killing them if they wanted to. Killing them would not be in their favor at all. At most they would imprison them or forcefully deport them from Crimea.
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On March 08 2014 12:00 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2014 11:54 Wegandi wrote:On March 08 2014 11:49 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:45 oneofthem wrote:
on the russian side of things, idk how strong nazis are getting in ukraine but it does seem to be a serious issue. the u.s. approach to it seems to be that 'we'll take care of that later' and a bit of dirty laundry not aired. but for things to move forward this element has to be dealt with.
the confrontation though, unless russia wants to march onto kiev and throw these dudes out, won't solve it. Well, we will get to see in May how strong the fascist element is. Ideally the current government in Kyiv will highlight to all Ukrainians that its mainly Russian-Ukrainians soldiers and sailors who are being threatened and blockaded in Crimea and arent surrendering/betraying their oath to the country and so make a clear distinction between Putin's fascist state and the common Russian who is stuck in it. But no doubt about it, the fascists could just go on tv and blame it all on Russians instead of Putin. But again -- at its most popular -- the fascist party was the 5th most popular party in Ukraine, after even the Communists. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)#2012_elections:_further_supportSvoboda (National Socialist Party of Ukraine) received nearly 11% last election, and most of that came from Western Ukraine, whereas it received <1% in Eastern Ukraine (where most Russians are). 1. Making them the 5th most popular in that election, behind the Communists. Before Timoshenkos arrest in 2010 those voters for the most part were hers. And the new party -- the reformist Udar -- that also made its debut in these elections went from nowhere to being the 3rd most popular party. Show nested quote +
If Eastern Ukraine splinters off to Russia you can expect Svoboda to become even more powerful than they all ready are (who occupy many top Government positions right now).
Ministry of Agriculture, Ecology, the vice prime minister and the temporary solicitor general. No defense, no internal security, no economy, no ethnic relations protfolio Since Ukraine is already in debt and the choice is between reforms that might allow Ukraine to exist its current trajectory as the Bolivia of Europe onto the Polish trajectory its worth trying.
That election was in 2012. Polls since have shown Svoboda to be far more popular than they were in 2012. (between 20-30%+). Anyways, it appears so many who are anti-Putin want to brush this aside. It's like the Cold War never left us. While Russia is an authoritarian regime, that doesn't excuse what is going on now in Ukraine. Just like we installed militant Theocrats all across Northern Africa and the Middle East, we're playing the authoritarian puppet regime in Ukraine. Those supporting the 'Euromaidan' as constituted will be bitten in the ass again, eventually, just as it happens every time foreign powers attempt to throw themselves into situations where their myopic idiocy can openly shine. How about the Ukrainians figure out what to do for themselves, just as Icelanders did. Iceland didn't need the IMF and World Bank and neither does Ukraine. Bunch of extortionists the lot of them.
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On March 08 2014 12:05 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2014 12:00 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:54 Wegandi wrote:On March 08 2014 11:49 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:45 oneofthem wrote:
on the russian side of things, idk how strong nazis are getting in ukraine but it does seem to be a serious issue. the u.s. approach to it seems to be that 'we'll take care of that later' and a bit of dirty laundry not aired. but for things to move forward this element has to be dealt with.
the confrontation though, unless russia wants to march onto kiev and throw these dudes out, won't solve it. Well, we will get to see in May how strong the fascist element is. Ideally the current government in Kyiv will highlight to all Ukrainians that its mainly Russian-Ukrainians soldiers and sailors who are being threatened and blockaded in Crimea and arent surrendering/betraying their oath to the country and so make a clear distinction between Putin's fascist state and the common Russian who is stuck in it. But no doubt about it, the fascists could just go on tv and blame it all on Russians instead of Putin. But again -- at its most popular -- the fascist party was the 5th most popular party in Ukraine, after even the Communists. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)#2012_elections:_further_supportSvoboda (National Socialist Party of Ukraine) received nearly 11% last election, and most of that came from Western Ukraine, whereas it received <1% in Eastern Ukraine (where most Russians are). 1. Making them the 5th most popular in that election, behind the Communists. Before Timoshenkos arrest in 2010 those voters for the most part were hers. And the new party -- the reformist Udar -- that also made its debut in these elections went from nowhere to being the 3rd most popular party.
If Eastern Ukraine splinters off to Russia you can expect Svoboda to become even more powerful than they all ready are (who occupy many top Government positions right now).
Ministry of Agriculture, Ecology, the vice prime minister and the temporary solicitor general. No defense, no internal security, no economy, no ethnic relations protfolio Such a lovely technocrat ready to indebt his nation to IMF lords. Since Ukraine is already in debt and the choice is between reforms that might allow Ukraine to exist its current trajectory as the Bolivia of Europe onto the Polish trajectory its worth trying. That election was in 2012. Polls since have shown Svoboda to be far more popular than they were in 2012. (between 20-30%+).
The elections were in 2012, Timoshenko was arrested in 2010 which explains the under performance of her party in the regions she historically carried. And what polls? Feel free to link some, I tried to search for your claim of 20-30% but I dont see any. For example here is a poll of popularity of various potential candidates for the presidency -- held before Yanukovich was overthrown -- that show the Svoboda guy at 3.9%, a decline from his 2012 parliamentary high. http://www.bne.eu/story5650/Ukrainian_polls_show_presidential_race_up_in_the_air
Cheerio, can you search maybe some Ukrainian polls I might not know about?
Iceland didn't need the IMF and World Bank and neither does Ukraine. Bunch of extortionists the lot of them.
Instead they joined the EEA. And did so rapidly because a number of structural problems in Ukraine -- inefficienty energy sector, a law that forbids foreigners from owning land, a rule of law -- dont exist in Iceland.
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On March 08 2014 12:04 Slaughter wrote:
I am pretty sure that the Russians can remove them without killing them if they wanted to. Killing them would not be in their favor at all. At most they would imprison them or forcefully deport them from Crimea.
If they could do it why havent done it yet? Its obviously not in their interest to keep Western tv crews showing the same thing almost daily, heavily armed guys threatening unarmed, Russian speaking guys loyal to Ukraine inside territory that even the broadest legal definition doesnt give the Russian to be on.
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Probably because the Russians are evaluating the nature of international response and doing the diplomatic dance. If they did forcibly remove them then it would just cause more outrage (even if done peacefully). There isn't anything to gain by removing them really and they aren't currently doing much so why bother at this stage.
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On March 08 2014 12:23 Slaughter wrote:
Probably because the Russians are evaluating the nature of international response and doing the diplomatic dance. If they did forcibly remove them then it would just cause more outrage (even if done peacefully). There isn't anything to gain by removing them really and they aren't currently doing much so why bother at this stage.
Right but if they are waiting until March 16...and then they suddenly declare them 'foreign invaders' is that going to change anything in the West?
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The dumbest thing about this whole situation is that short of getting massive donations from EU, Ukraine has very little to gain by 'switching sides' from working with Russia to opening up to EU -- and as we can see, getting along with both isn't going to work out, not in the way they are doing it at least (and it's quite doubtful that EU would be willing to pour money into Ukraine as we have plenty other moneysinks to throw cash into already). Ukraine's economy not only is utter shit, but also completely dependant on their trade with Russia and other CIS countries; throwing their existing ties under the bus in exchange for the bright Euro future might work out in 20 years' time, but they simply don't have that time. In the short run, they are going to end up with even higher prices, lower salaries, and bigger budget deficits than ever. The whole situation really doesn't make any sense; you could say that they are fighting to overthrow the corruption and oppression of evil pro-Russian autocrats but the fact is, people are still going to be hungry and cold and what they really need is to work on their internal issues instead of turning their country into another East vs West battleground.
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On March 08 2014 12:40 Salazarz wrote:
The dumbest thing about this whole situation is that short of getting massive donations from EU, Ukraine has very little to gain by 'switching sides' from working with Russia to opening up to EU
other than structural reforms that helped places like Slovakia or Poland to overcome their Communist heritage to a point where their economies are now 2x of what the Ukrainian is, and they started off at a worse base line
but also completely dependant on their trade with Russia and other CIS countries
Nope. Its actually a 50/50 split between EU and Russia. But just logically EU has more potential trade benefits since its a richer area, with a bigger consumer market.
The whole situation really doesn't make any sense; you could say that they are fighting to overthrow the corruption and oppression of evil pro-Russian autocrats but the fact is, people are still going to be hungry and cold
One goes hand in hand with the other. The choice wasnt "stay the same or join the EU" the choice was "change towards reforms to join the EU or change to join the Euroasian Union" Putin's offer of more debt to Russia wouldnt have solved anything except allow for the government to continue to struggle on, but once they failed to pay his next debt tranche they'd sell the gas pipelines and after that...the same hunger and poverty...but now within an institution like the Russian dominated Euroasian Union where there is no hope for real reforms at all.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On March 08 2014 12:40 Salazarz wrote:
The dumbest thing about this whole situation is that short of getting massive donations from EU, Ukraine has very little to gain by 'switching sides' from working with Russia to opening up to EU -- and as we can see, getting along with both isn't going to work out, not in the way they are doing it at least (and it's quite doubtful that EU would be willing to pour money into Ukraine as we have plenty other moneysinks to throw cash into already). Ukraine's economy not only is utter shit, but also completely dependant on their trade with Russia and other CIS countries; throwing their existing ties under the bus in exchange for the bright Euro future might work out in 20 years' time, but they simply don't have that time. In the short run, they are going to end up with even higher prices, lower salaries, and bigger budget deficits than ever. The whole situation really doesn't make any sense; you could say that they are fighting to overthrow the corruption and oppression of evil pro-Russian autocrats but the fact is, people are still going to be hungry and cold and what they really need is to work on their internal issues instead of turning their country into another East vs West battleground.
this is a case in which they really do need some IMF style reforms.
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svoboda being the pr-friendly face of fascism in ukraine. haven't heard a peep from opposition about distancing themselves from pravy sektor, spilna správa, trident, uno-unso, who are like fish in the water in the current climate and will garner public support in it. the opposition sympathizers in this thread all in all seems disinterested or think it's a negligible grouping. hope it's a priority issue, but seems like a dangerous game to play.
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On March 08 2014 13:01 nunez wrote:
svoboda being the pr-friendly face of fascism in ukraine. haven't heard a peep from opposition about distancing themselves from pravy sektor, spilna správa, trident, uno-unso, who are like fish in the water in the current climate and will garner public support in it.
They are probably busy dealing with an invasion of their country and a massive deficit. Hopefully in the May elections we'll see who is popular and by how much. And obviously if the reformists want to continue to ascend to Europe they have to deal with any threat of fascism -- fortunately European norms include strengthening the rule of law and the protection of minority rights.
the opposition sympathizers in this thread all in all seems disinterested or think it's a negligible grouping.
And people who sympathize with a vague anti-American stance or a wholly pro-Russian stance seem preoccupied with a party that came in 5th place in the less elections -- behind even the Communist Party -- and received less votes than National Front did in France or the Vlams Block in Belgium and has never formed a government the way the Freedom Party has in Austria. The first President of Croatia -- the Croatia that is now an EU member - was an honest to goodness war criminal that would have sat in the dock along Milosevic had he not died while Svoboda's candidate at the last poll conducted has the support of ~4% for the presidency.
The point is that yes, fascism should be opposed everywhere but a dark vein of right wining populism runs through Europe from the Atlantic to the Adriatic to Ukraine to Russia. But the EU seems relatively vigilant about it and its norms that promote rule of law, an independent press and minority protection are preferably prophylactic to Nazis than the Russian approach of 'wait till they start cutting off heads of people on youtube and then strike'
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/political-scene-the-conflict-in-crimea.html
“If you had told me two weeks ago that he would have done this,” Remnick says, “I would have been very surprised. The psychology of Putin is not, at this point, very hard to discern. He is sick of moralism and lectures from the West. He is freaked out, and has been for years and years, about the eastward expansion of NATO, which is a very real thing, and wants to assert his interests.”
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like i said, i hope it's a priority issue.
ah yes, i forgot pigeonholing it into pro-Bad / anti-Good vs pro-Good / anti-Bad.
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I feel bad for the people of Crimea. I'm sorry that the West doesn't have the fortitude to stand up to a bully like Putin. I am so sorry.
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Hmm I wonder what the reasons for a possible Russian annexation of Crimea could be.
Protecting ethnic Russians from the "fascist junta" seems like complete bullshit to me.
Militarily the situation won't change much, Russia already had access to the Black Sea before.
Economically I don't know how prosperous Crimea is but I doubt it would be worth the trouble.
Maybe the reason is energy politics?
There are a lot of gas pipeline projects planned or underway is SE Europe at the moment with SE European countries diversifying their imports away from Russia towards Azerbaijan and if the political situation allows it Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Iraq.
Crimea came into play with two of those pipeline projects:
The South Stream pipeline which was rerouted through Turkish waters to avoid Ukrainian exclusive economic zone. Possible future Russian Pipelines towards SE Europe could now go through Crimean waters.
The GUEU pipeline which Ukraine hoped would connect Georgia and Crimea and lessen Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas alone.
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On March 08 2014 14:42 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:
Hmm I wonder what the reasons for a possible Russian annexation of Crimea could be.
Protecting ethnic Russians from the "fascist junta" seems like complete bullshit to me.
Militarily the situation won't change much, Russia already had access to the Black Sea before.
Economically I don't know how prosperous Crimea is but I doubt it would be worth the trouble.
Maybe the reason is energy politics?
There are a lot of gas pipeline projects planned or underway is SE Europe at the moment with SE European countries diversifying their imports away from Russia towards Azerbaijan and if the political situation allows it Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Iraq.
Crimea came into play with two of those pipeline projects:
The South Stream pipeline which was rerouted through Turkish waters to avoid Ukrainian exclusive economic zone. Possible future Russian Pipelines towards SE Europe could now go through Crimean waters.
The GUEU pipeline which Ukraine hoped would connect Georgia and Crimea and lessen Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas alone.
Some commentators suggested that if it keeps Crimea occupied, Ukraine cannot join NATO, as countries with territorial disputes are not allowed in.
It could also be a more reactionary response -- when Yanukovich fled the Eastern region held a 'Congress' where the various governors and mayors of the Party of Regions discussed what to do. Crimean delegation was the only one that wanted outright secession so he went with them. If you believe that he believes that this was a Western sponsored coup then he is protecting his most strategic region with the base on it.
Or he could be betting that the loss of Crimea will cause the fascists to go crazy, overthrow the government in Kiyiv which will then allow him to grab Eastern Ukraine too -- and this time they would gladly join it instead of their current resistance to the issue.
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Another explanation I've heard is that it's using the nationalistic fervor to prop up Putin's position. Though his position seemed pretty solid to me, so I'm not sure why he'd do that. Even if he's getting in some trouble for skipping out on some campaign promises or poor economy or something, he still seems solid enough to not rely on something like that.
He also probably could've gotten Crimea without doing anything sketchy by just playing some basic diplomacy and light espionage.
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http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21598744-having-occupied-crimea-russia-stirring-up-trouble-eastern-ukraine-end
There was only one thing missing: the enemy. Everyone in Crimea. and now across eastern Ukraine, is talking about Ukrainian fascists, but nobody has actually seen one. “We have not seen them here yet, but we have seen them on television,” said Stanislav Nagorny, an aide to the leader of a local “self-defence” force in Sebastopol. The confusion was understandable: Russian television had unleashed a propaganda campaign impressive in both its intensity and cynicism, stoking ethnic hatred and exacerbating historical divides, mixing half truths with outright lies. Right-wing extremists and nationalists did take part in the revolution, but they do not control the government.
Still, not everything has gone quite to plan. Ukrainian troops in Crimea were put under enormous psychological pressure to defect, their officers blackmailed with threats of retribution to their families if they did not surrender. Thugs surrounded the Ukrainian naval headquarters, cutting off its water and electricity. But if Russia was hoping to follow the scenario of the Georgian war in 2008, when it managed to provoke the Georgians to fire first, it flopped. Ukrainian forces remained calm, the vast majority refusing to budge. As a Russian speaker who serves in the Ukrainian fleet put it ironically, “Russians do not surrender.” Dogged, as yet non-violent resistance seems to have given them a new sense of purpose and unity. I hope the Ukrainian government is smart enough to create a new order of medal, above Hero of Ukraine, all those guys down in Crimea deserve one..
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On March 08 2014 12:00 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2014 11:54 Wegandi wrote:On March 08 2014 11:49 Sub40APM wrote:On March 08 2014 11:45 oneofthem wrote:
on the russian side of things, idk how strong nazis are getting in ukraine but it does seem to be a serious issue. the u.s. approach to it seems to be that 'we'll take care of that later' and a bit of dirty laundry not aired. but for things to move forward this element has to be dealt with.
the confrontation though, unless russia wants to march onto kiev and throw these dudes out, won't solve it. Well, we will get to see in May how strong the fascist element is. Ideally the current government in Kyiv will highlight to all Ukrainians that its mainly Russian-Ukrainians soldiers and sailors who are being threatened and blockaded in Crimea and arent surrendering/betraying their oath to the country and so make a clear distinction between Putin's fascist state and the common Russian who is stuck in it. But no doubt about it, the fascists could just go on tv and blame it all on Russians instead of Putin. But again -- at its most popular -- the fascist party was the 5th most popular party in Ukraine, after even the Communists. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)#2012_elections:_further_supportSvoboda (National Socialist Party of Ukraine) received nearly 11% last election, and most of that came from Western Ukraine, whereas it received <1% in Eastern Ukraine (where most Russians are). 1. Making them the 5th most popular in that election, behind the Communists. Before Timoshenkos arrest in 2010 those voters for the most part were hers. And the new party -- the reformist Udar -- that also made its debut in these elections went from nowhere to being the 3rd most popular party. Show nested quote +
If Eastern Ukraine splinters off to Russia you can expect Svoboda to become even more powerful than they all ready are (who occupy many top Government positions right now).
Ministry of Agriculture, Ecology, the vice prime minister and the temporary solicitor general. No defense, no internal security, no economy, no ethnic relations protfolio Since Ukraine is already in debt and the choice is between reforms that might allow Ukraine to exist its current trajectory as the Bolivia of Europe onto the Polish trajectory its worth trying.
Did something change ? I saw somewhere they also got defense and general prosecutor. Also got National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
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EPT
