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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 12 2017 19:22 GMT
#146541
On April 13 2017 03:43 Plansix wrote:
Trump is being told that the House and Senate are not taking up tax reform and are only interested in healthcare so they don’t get slapped in 2018.


So they have no strategy unless some hail Mary passes they agree with the Freedom Caucasus which would be deeply unpopular with moderate constituents.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43271 Posts
April 12 2017 19:26 GMT
#146542
On April 13 2017 04:21 Kevin_Sorbo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:12 LegalLord wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:02 KwarK wrote:
I mean Hitler probably counts.


You could probably use that on most countries (Americans would certainly buy it), but I don't think Russia is going to play that shit.

I mean America did bear the brunt of all the fighting and the casualties and it did liberate all of Europe from the evil Nazi regime so we should at least give the US credit for that. Everything was going great for Hitler but then the Americans stepped in and it was all downhill for the Nazis from there.


Russia says hello...

He was being sarcastic but it's not like the Russians were doing that well before they started receiving huge convoys of armaments from the United States and the Mediterranean front turned hot.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7918 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 19:34:32
April 12 2017 19:27 GMT
#146543
On April 13 2017 02:44 Plansix wrote:
You are totally correct. Marie Antoinette sort of became the punching bag of history when it come to the French Revolution. But it hard to pass up a good cake joke.

Well, the fact she was playing shepherd with her suivantes in Versailles gardens when actual shepherds and basically everyone else was starving to death didn't help to make her a heroic figure in the whole story.

MA just ended up as the symbol of what Versailles had become: an outdated uber expensive tool to entertain a class of absolute parasites, that Louis XIV created to get the nobles out of business and rule alone (blame the trauma of the Fronde). The "noblesse domestiquée" was a time bomb: a whole class of former feudal leaders suddenly transformed into a giant shotshow of expensive parties and useless luxury, doing essentially nothing for the country. Louis XIV move was genius politically, but he basically sepukku'ed the French monarchy.

Too bad for Antoinette to have personified the problem in history books, I guess. French noblesse and monarchy didn't adapt to the evolution of the country, became an irrelevant liability, and died. Historical necessity, really.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 12 2017 19:30 GMT
#146544
The last of the monarchs were not particularly bad, by monarch standards. Perhaps unlucky - Louis XVI happened to be at the helm of France when its luck in war was... middling at best - but there were certainly worse monarchs than him. The last Russian czars were among the most popular. They just had the misfortune to exist in a time period when their standard brand of royal excess and disregard for the peasant class started to be seen as a problem worthy of overthrowing them for.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Kevin_Sorbo
Profile Joined November 2011
Canada3217 Posts
April 12 2017 19:31 GMT
#146545
On April 13 2017 04:26 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:21 Kevin_Sorbo wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:12 LegalLord wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:02 KwarK wrote:
I mean Hitler probably counts.


You could probably use that on most countries (Americans would certainly buy it), but I don't think Russia is going to play that shit.

I mean America did bear the brunt of all the fighting and the casualties and it did liberate all of Europe from the evil Nazi regime so we should at least give the US credit for that. Everything was going great for Hitler but then the Americans stepped in and it was all downhill for the Nazis from there.


Russia says hello...

He was being sarcastic but it's not like the Russians were doing that well before they started receiving huge convoys of armaments from the United States and the Mediterranean front turned hot.


my bad, took it for a display of american chauvinism...
The mind is like a parachute, it doesnt work unless its open. - Zappa
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 19:33:41
April 12 2017 19:32 GMT
#146546
On April 13 2017 04:30 LegalLord wrote:
The last of the monarchs were not particularly bad, by monarch standards. Perhaps unlucky - Louis XVI happened to be at the helm of France when its luck in war was... middling at best - but there were certainly worse monarchs than him. The last Russian czars were among the most popular. They just had the misfortune to exist in a time period when their standard brand of royal excess and disregard for the peasant class started to be seen as a problem worthy of overthrowing them for.


Tsar Nicholas II was the absolute worst of the Tsar's in Russia History put him alongside with his paranoid and spiritually obsessed wife you had disaster in the making.

If only Alexander II never got out of the Carriage and kept going to the Winter Palace
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23488 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 19:45:15
April 12 2017 19:45 GMT
#146547
Can't speak to the authors, but this book sounds good.


Her aides took the browbeating — one of several she delivered in person and on the phone that day — in silence. They had a lot of their own thoughts on what went wrong, some of which echoed Hillary’s assessment: her message was off for Michigan, and she had refused to go hard against trade; Mook had pinched pennies and failed to put organizers on the ground; the polling and analytics were a touch too rosy, meaning the campaign didn’t know Bernie was ahead; she had set up an ambiguous decisionmaking structure on the campaign; and she’d focused too heavily on black and brown voters at the expense of competing for the whites who had formed her base in 2008. The list went on and on.

The underlying truth — the one that many didn’t want to admit to themselves — was the person ultimately responsible for these decisions, the one whose name was on the ticket, hadn’t corrected these problems, all of which had been brought to her attention before primary day. She’d stuck with the plan, and it had cost her.


Source
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7918 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 19:53:43
April 12 2017 19:45 GMT
#146548
On April 13 2017 04:30 LegalLord wrote:
The last of the monarchs were not particularly bad, by monarch standards. Perhaps unlucky - Louis XVI happened to be at the helm of France when its luck in war was... middling at best - but there were certainly worse monarchs than him. The last Russian czars were among the most popular. They just had the misfortune to exist in a time period when their standard brand of royal excess and disregard for the peasant class started to be seen as a problem worthy of overthrowing them for.

Well the regent didn't give a fuck, Louis XV didn't give a fuck (après moi, le déluge), those people were too busy partying to realize the country needed a complete overhaul of its former feudal system.

As for Louis XVI, he simply didn't have the shoulders. He didn't want to be there, and had neither the competence nor the charisma to lead in such difficult times. He was probably not a bad guy, and he would have been ok-ish in prosperous times.

But again, the real responsible for the collapse of the monarchy was Louis XIV, who transformed a feudal country into an absolute monarchy at the price of transforming noblemen into party crazed parasites. Versailles was a short term solution.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7918 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 19:51:03
April 12 2017 19:50 GMT
#146549
On April 13 2017 04:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:30 LegalLord wrote:
The last of the monarchs were not particularly bad, by monarch standards. Perhaps unlucky - Louis XVI happened to be at the helm of France when its luck in war was... middling at best - but there were certainly worse monarchs than him. The last Russian czars were among the most popular. They just had the misfortune to exist in a time period when their standard brand of royal excess and disregard for the peasant class started to be seen as a problem worthy of overthrowing them for.


Tsar Nicholas II was the absolute worst of the Tsar's in Russia History put him alongside with his paranoid and spiritually obsessed wife you had disaster in the making.

If only Alexander II never got out of the Carriage and kept going to the Winter Palace

I had a russian girlfriend who used to say that the last decent leader Russia has had was Alexandre II. Everyone since has been either a clown or a monster, most of the time both. I think it's hard to argue; not one of them since (mayyyybe Gorbatchev??) has seemed to give a fuck about the fate of his own people.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
April 12 2017 19:57 GMT
#146550
On April 13 2017 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 03:43 Plansix wrote:
Trump is being told that the House and Senate are not taking up tax reform and are only interested in healthcare so they don’t get slapped in 2018.


So they have no strategy unless some hail Mary passes they agree with the Freedom Caucasus which would be deeply unpopular with moderate constituents.


My rough estimation of the healthcare fight is this: Which ever bill you pass, you either lose the senate or you lose congress, as the GOP. As a result, the GOP is best served by doing nothing. Anything the HFC agrees to will lose purple senators their job.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 20:02:18
April 12 2017 19:59 GMT
#146551
On April 13 2017 04:57 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On April 13 2017 03:43 Plansix wrote:
Trump is being told that the House and Senate are not taking up tax reform and are only interested in healthcare so they don’t get slapped in 2018.


So they have no strategy unless some hail Mary passes they agree with the Freedom Caucasus which would be deeply unpopular with moderate constituents.


My rough estimation of the healthcare fight is this: Which ever bill you pass, you either lose the senate or you lose congress, as the GOP. As a result, the GOP is best served by doing nothing. Anything the HFC agrees to will lose purple senators their job.

that seems rather consistent with what the GOP has done so far.
That said, I would like to seek some solutions to the inaction bias (just the trend toward taking no action rather than some action, different from the thing formally described as inaction bias) that occurs in government; as it applies even in cases wherein a change would be beneficial. while some level of inertia is good for stability, imho the level of resistance to change is too high. though given the underpinning in basic human psychology, I don't see how that could be done ina democracy.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7918 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 20:05:01
April 12 2017 20:04 GMT
#146552
Niw that is a fun one to annoy Trump.

Merkel has some classy way of saying fuck you.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 12 2017 20:26 GMT
#146553
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
April 12 2017 20:27 GMT
#146554
On April 13 2017 04:59 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:57 Mohdoo wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On April 13 2017 03:43 Plansix wrote:
Trump is being told that the House and Senate are not taking up tax reform and are only interested in healthcare so they don’t get slapped in 2018.


So they have no strategy unless some hail Mary passes they agree with the Freedom Caucasus which would be deeply unpopular with moderate constituents.


My rough estimation of the healthcare fight is this: Which ever bill you pass, you either lose the senate or you lose congress, as the GOP. As a result, the GOP is best served by doing nothing. Anything the HFC agrees to will lose purple senators their job.

that seems rather consistent with what the GOP has done so far.
That said, I would like to seek some solutions to the inaction bias (just the trend toward taking no action rather than some action, different from the thing formally described as inaction bias) that occurs in government; as it applies even in cases wherein a change would be beneficial. while some level of inertia is good for stability, imho the level of resistance to change is too high. though given the underpinning in basic human psychology, I don't see how that could be done ina democracy.


Its hard to fix this when the voters are creating the problem. This is a cultural problem, not an institutional problem. In my eyes at least. There are poor, rural voters who are at risk of bankruptcy as a result of removing pre-existing conditions. These people insist on a 100% repeat of Obamacare. They will accept nothing less. If their representative votes against a full repeal, he will be replaced.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 12 2017 20:28 GMT
#146555
On April 13 2017 05:27 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:59 zlefin wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:57 Mohdoo wrote:
On April 13 2017 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On April 13 2017 03:43 Plansix wrote:
Trump is being told that the House and Senate are not taking up tax reform and are only interested in healthcare so they don’t get slapped in 2018.


So they have no strategy unless some hail Mary passes they agree with the Freedom Caucasus which would be deeply unpopular with moderate constituents.


My rough estimation of the healthcare fight is this: Which ever bill you pass, you either lose the senate or you lose congress, as the GOP. As a result, the GOP is best served by doing nothing. Anything the HFC agrees to will lose purple senators their job.

that seems rather consistent with what the GOP has done so far.
That said, I would like to seek some solutions to the inaction bias (just the trend toward taking no action rather than some action, different from the thing formally described as inaction bias) that occurs in government; as it applies even in cases wherein a change would be beneficial. while some level of inertia is good for stability, imho the level of resistance to change is too high. though given the underpinning in basic human psychology, I don't see how that could be done ina democracy.


Its hard to fix this when the voters are creating the problem. This is a cultural problem, not an institutional problem. In my eyes at least. There are poor, rural voters who are at risk of bankruptcy as a result of removing pre-existing conditions. These people insist on a 100% repeat of Obamacare. They will accept nothing less. If their representative votes against a full repeal, he will be replaced.

In this case it is; but I'm also talking about the more fundamental general problem.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 12 2017 20:38 GMT
#146556
On April 13 2017 04:45 Biff The Understudy wrote:
As for Louis XVI, he simply didn't have the shoulders. He didn't want to be there, and had neither the competence nor the charisma to lead in such difficult times. He was probably not a bad guy, and he would have been ok-ish in prosperous times.

This is a pretty common trend for the last monarchs: they tended to be little more than people of lesser competence in the wrong place at the wrong time, and the people started to be sick of them and removed them by force. Louis XVI - and Marie Antoinette - certainly had quite the wave of bad luck in their ruling years.

But, you know, even if they weren't the worst of their kind, they were still perfectly valid symbols of the kind of shit that people hated in monarchs. It's hard to say that they "deserved" to be executed but none of them are just virtuous people who were scapegoats who didn't deserve to be dethroned and demonized.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23488 Posts
April 12 2017 20:41 GMT
#146557
Are we close enough to another cold war for Democrats to drop the Trump is Russia's stooge stuff?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-12 20:49:32
April 12 2017 20:46 GMT
#146558
On April 13 2017 05:41 GreenHorizons wrote:
Are we close enough to another cold war for Democrats to drop the Trump is Russia's stooge stuff?


Every new piece of classified information that comes out reveals deeper ties. The new AP reports of Manafort really getting paid according to the Ukranian black book, the Page FISA warrant, Nunes distractions just being a heap of lies. Why do you want to sweep this under the rug? Why not let the investigation into Russian interference continue?

EDIT: just today we have Trump hinting at a lack of confidence in Comey. What will it take before you realize the value of these investigations? Foreign interference matters, lets find out.

"No, it's not too late," Trump said when Maria Bartiromo asked if it was too late to fire Comey. "But you know I have confidence in him. We’ll see what happens. It’s going to be interesting."


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-not-too-late-fire-comey
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 12 2017 20:46 GMT
#146559
On April 13 2017 04:57 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On April 13 2017 03:43 Plansix wrote:
Trump is being told that the House and Senate are not taking up tax reform and are only interested in healthcare so they don’t get slapped in 2018.


So they have no strategy unless some hail Mary passes they agree with the Freedom Caucasus which would be deeply unpopular with moderate constituents.


My rough estimation of the healthcare fight is this: Which ever bill you pass, you either lose the senate or you lose congress, as the GOP. As a result, the GOP is best served by doing nothing. Anything the HFC agrees to will lose purple senators their job.

This is what happens when you try to pull the same thing off that happened in 2008, but you don’t have a super majority and also refuse to work outside your party.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
April 12 2017 21:03 GMT
#146560
The Campaign Legal Center, a non partisan watchdog group, has filed new evidence with the Federal Election Commission, which they say shows that a Trump supporting super PAC illegally compensated Steve Bannon, Trump’s current White House Chief Strategist, during the campaign.

The group also alleges that the same super PAC, Make America Number 1, engaged in unlawful coordination by using a common vendor. The PAC was initially founded to fight Hillary Clinton, and most of the donations came from conservative high-dollar donor Robert Mercer, the billionaire. Mercer was initially a Ted Cruz supporter, but threw his support behind Trump after Cruz was out of the race.

The FEC letter that the Campaign Legal Center sent to the commission alleges that Make America Number 1 appeared to have paid Bannon through two “cover” firms, Glittering Steel LLC, and Cambridge Analytics. The letter contends that those companies are incorporated at the same address as Bannon’s consulting firm, Bannon Strategic advisors. Federal law prohibits super PACs from coordinating with official campaigns.
“The evidence suggests that the Mercer-backed super PAC secretly subsidized Bannon’s work for the Trump campaign by payments to ‘Glittering Steel,’ which we now know has been chaired and is owned by Bannon and which paid him a monthly consulting fee,” Brendan Fischer, director of the federal and FEC reform program at the Campaign Legal Center, said in a statement obtained by LawNewz.com.

The letter filed Wednesday was a supplement to an original complaint that the organization first filed with commission back in October.

The watchdog group also sent a letter to California’s Attorney General asking for an investigation into whether the firms that received Bannon’s payments are complying with state law. Specifically, the group contends that Glittering LLC is registered in Delaware but engages in a practice of intrastate practice in California.

“Bannon’s company appears to have dodged the California disclosure requirements that would provide more public information that could inform whether it broke federal campaign finance law,” said Fischer.

LawNewz.com has emailed the White House for comment on this story.


http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/watchdog-claims-they-have-evidence-bannon-was-illegally-paid-as-trumps-campaign-chair/

I can't tell if this matters or not
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