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On November 09 2016 20:27 GGTeMpLaR wrote: Victory speech surprisingly respectful towards Clinton
I've always had this fantasy:
Trump, being a businessman, might not actually believe in all that shit he spouts. He saw a large, growing group of voters who were left unaddressed- just like an untapped market- and decided to cater to it for votes. He appeals to them all the way, and eventually wins the election. Then he shows his true face- that of an actual centrist who legit can run the country well- and America really becomes great again.
It's a fantasy, but with what has happened one can only hope.
All the best to America! That which has happened, has happened, and now we can only hope the new president sincerely does not disappoint.
Imagine Congress if Trump proposes Garland for the supreme court. That would make this whole thing worth it. Trumpsters would also riot in the streets, but it would still be glorious.
Unfortunately, that is not going to happen. Trump is going to propose some socially medieval judge who will sail through congress unopposed, and that will be the end of Roe vs. Wade.
On November 09 2016 21:07 zeo wrote: The Republican party hasn't been this strong since 1928. Think about how bad of a candidate Clinton was.
Are we ignoring all the years they actually won the popular vote for a reason orrrr
He is talking about them controlling all branches of government. They really have a blank check to do whatever the fuck they want. No one around to stop them.
On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up.
Yeah, i have to say, i simply can not explain this election result. It just makes no sense. Why would anyone vote for someone like trump is beyond me. I would vote for a literal stone over that guy.
Does this mean that US politics is now completely unhinged from reality? Apparently it does not matter what is actually going on, the only thing relevant is what you claim. You can lie however much you want and still get elected president.
And lets not even start about Pence. Pence is just disgusting. That man manages to demonstrate that he has no idea how science works, and still despises it in just 5 minutes of talking about evolution. And gay conversion camps...
It is just so unimaginably insane to vote these people into a position of power, and actually give those people more power than Obama had. They can actually make laws, because they somehow control both houses of the US legislation, and they can not have those laws challenged because they control the supreme court, because the republicans were so incredibly dickish to just keep a slot in there open for a year just in case they won the election. This alone should have lost them the election. But for some reason it didn't.
I agree that the US electoral system is horrifyingly stupid, but still, even with that horrible system you should have been able to elect someone less insane than trump. Elect a log of wood. It's still better than Trump.
I just hope that he only fucks up your country, and doesn't manage to drag the EU down with him somehow.
Having an economy of the size like the US go bad is bad for everyone. Besides, I don't want any people to suffer.
But I agree, why vote for such a disgusting man, or why even vote for the political right even? If anything the US needed a yank.. to the left.
Oh i agree, it would be even better if he also doesn't fuck up the US.
Sadly, with everything i have heard so far, i do not think that that will happen. The US will probably not explode or anything, but it will be significantly worse after a Trump presidency than before. That is just something i see as sadly unavoidable after this result. I just hope that the rest of the world will not also be worse. Because we did not vote for this insanity.
But i also never understood how the republican party gets elected in the first place, even without trump. Their positions on evolution, healthcare, religion, climate change, economics, abortion and pretty much anything they ever talk about are just simply the direct opposite of what i believe is correct, and even far away from anything i can reasonably imagine a person supporting. So i guess voting for the worst person i can imagine in office is a logical conclusion to that?
That's how it is supposed to be and is a point of pride for many Americans. There's a reason the people who made America, America, left Europe. We don't want to be you. If you don't understand that, well, that's not my problem :p
On November 09 2016 18:30 Orcasgt24 wrote: Well the world just got alot less predictable...
As a Canadian, I hop his stance on NAFTA is swayed or in some way impossible because if that gets axed....we are in trouble.
Good thing we have a trade agreement with the EU now
Looks pretty darn good now considering if Trump undoes a lot of things the States is going to have a lot of major setbacks.When you make the primary focus about attacking someone else it usually loses you an election more often than not. It's odd because Trump was throwing and slinging just as much mud and it wasn't just against Clinton.
His mudslinging regarding the polls was apparently correct. The fact that he praised them when they showed him on the rise slightly means very little, as they were still relatively inaccurate compared to the actual results despite the slight sway in his favour.
Those polls and the whole statistic behind it is utter nonsense. Asking 500 people for something so reliant on more than just demograhic, which alone is very complex already, to create "accurate" statistics for millions of people is a pretty retarded idea. I really don't understand why so much attention is payed to the polls. They only show large movements but they aren't even remotely accurate when it comes to exact calls.
Again, that's how modelling and statistics work. Ignoring the news outlets who do this stuff with no formal math background, but pollsters are highly aware that biases and blindsides exist. That's why all models are created with ranges in mind, where you account for the likelihood of biases and blind spots. For large, important, non-repeatable events like elections, there can be completely new blind spots, like Trump supporters underrepresenting their support because they're shamed for it. This data destroys the ranges devised by the current model, but helps the next time by calculating whether the situation is similar and expanding or contracting that range calculation. Imagine a model of the weather 30 years ago, and then we find out that the ozone layer is deteriorating and we have to reevaluate the model. And then we realized the polar ice caps melted which messed with El Niño and we have to reevaluate the model. And so on and so on. It's like science experiments.
Well-done polling for repeatable, low variance events can be accurate but it's not like it's an exact science, so like all pollsters will tell you, trust only the final poll. Blame media outlets for copping out and reporting on polls instead of having reporters investigate real stories.
In fairness, there's been a succession of polls falling to the same pitfall in the past year. In the UK we had Conservatives very significantly underrepresented in generation election polling, and then Brexit voters significantly underrepresented in the EU referendum polls. Huffington Post was touting a 98% chance for Hillary to win before the results started coming in. That is insane to me, given that she was leading by 4 points - the same polling margin as Remain in the EU referendum - in somewhat similar circumstances to the EU referendum.
Precedents have been completely dismissed. Modifications to methodologies have been designed, but I guess most pollsters considered them too new or untested to be used for such a significant event.
I fail to see the problem. Her RCP average lead this past week was hovering between 2 and 3%. And she is projected to win the popular vote by slightly over 1%. Margin of error for the difference between two candidates is 5 to 7%.
Polls being wrong by 2% or so on average is pretty damn accurate. Wisconsin is the one place where you can say pollsters failed.
The point is that they are consistently wrong because they are failing to take into account effects that have been observed in similar votes as recently as a few months ago. And then that the media somehow go from a margin of error lead to a 98% chance of victory.
I agree with the second part, some aggregators were too inflexible and didn't react almost at all to Clinton dropping 3-4 points in the polls in the past few weeks. As for polls themselves, I don't see the EU referendum as a particularly similar vote despite the ad nauseam comparison with it, and definitely not the last UK general election.
Sure, any assumption whatsoever that would have increased Trump's column by a couple percent would have meant more polls got closer to the result. But that wouldn't make the models better, not without those assumptions being the demographic turnout changes that they were wrong about. And for that, the EU referendum would have been useless.
On November 09 2016 21:17 OtherWorld wrote: Lol America, gj on making sure you'll be the #3 world power by 2020. It's all the Democrats' fault though, should have chosen Sanders.
#3 is unlikely, and even #2 in the near term. US is still in the clear lead for cultural, diplomatic, and domination victory types, and will be for the forseeable future. It took France 50 years, a good thrashing in two world wars and the rise of anti-colonialism to cease being relevant... I think we can take 4 years of Burlusconi.
On November 09 2016 21:11 Loccstana wrote: I find these quotes by Nietzsche to be quite relevant:
"And he who would be a creator in good and evil—truly he must first be a destroyer and break values. Thus the greatest evil belongs with the greatest good: but this is the creative good"
"The good—they cannot create; they are always the beginning of the end. They crucify him who writes new values on new law tables; they sacrifice the future to themselves; they crucify the whole future of humanity! The good—they are always the beginning of the end. And whatever harm the slanderers of the world may do, the harm of the good is the most harmful of all”
"When the herd animal basks in the glorious rays of the highest virtue the exceptional man must be devalued as the wicked man. If falsehood insists at all costs on claiming the word "truth” for its own, the real truth must be found among the despised."
“My formula for human greatness is amor fati: that one wants nothing to be different, not in the future, not in the past, not for all eternity. Not only to endure what is necessary, still less to conceal it — all idealism is falseness in the face of necessity — , but to love it...”
Trump isn't a Fascist! How dare you accuse him of that!
But, to inform you about his philosophy, I recommend you spend some time reading the works of one F. Nietzsche.+ Show Spoiler +
And before anybody gives me any of that "Nietzsche condemned the anti-semites" crap, his grounds for doing so were that they didn't take the amoralism far enough... and anyway he believed in the Jews being behind a "vast, subterranean conspiracy."
I would honestly be quite surprised if Trump had ever heard of Nietzsche, let alone read anything by him.
On November 09 2016 21:11 Loccstana wrote: I find these quotes by Nietzsche to be quite relevant:
"And he who would be a creator in good and evil—truly he must first be a destroyer and break values. Thus the greatest evil belongs with the greatest good: but this is the creative good"
"The good—they cannot create; they are always the beginning of the end. They crucify him who writes new values on new law tables; they sacrifice the future to themselves; they crucify the whole future of humanity! The good—they are always the beginning of the end. And whatever harm the slanderers of the world may do, the harm of the good is the most harmful of all”
"When the herd animal basks in the glorious rays of the highest virtue the exceptional man must be devalued as the wicked man. If falsehood insists at all costs on claiming the word "truth” for its own, the real truth must be found among the despised."
“My formula for human greatness is amor fati: that one wants nothing to be different, not in the future, not in the past, not for all eternity. Not only to endure what is necessary, still less to conceal it — all idealism is falseness in the face of necessity — , but to love it...”
Trump isn't a Fascist! How dare you accuse him of that!
But, to inform you about his philosophy, I recommend you spend some time reading the works of one F. Nietzsche.+ Show Spoiler +
And before anybody gives me any of that "Nietzsche condemned the anti-semites" crap, his grounds for doing so were that they didn't take the amoralism far enough... and anyway he believed in the Jews being behind a "vast, subterranean conspiracy."
Nietzsche, of course, has a quote for the other side as well:
"Whom do I hate most among the rabble of today? The socialist rabble, the chandala apostles, who undermine the instinct, the pleasure, the worker's sense of satisfaction with his small existence—who make him envious, who teach him revenge. The source of wrong is never unequal rights but the claim of “equal” rights"
On November 09 2016 21:11 Loccstana wrote: I find these quotes by Nietzsche to be quite relevant:
"And he who would be a creator in good and evil—truly he must first be a destroyer and break values. Thus the greatest evil belongs with the greatest good: but this is the creative good"
"The good—they cannot create; they are always the beginning of the end. They crucify him who writes new values on new law tables; they sacrifice the future to themselves; they crucify the whole future of humanity! The good—they are always the beginning of the end. And whatever harm the slanderers of the world may do, the harm of the good is the most harmful of all”
"When the herd animal basks in the glorious rays of the highest virtue the exceptional man must be devalued as the wicked man. If falsehood insists at all costs on claiming the word "truth” for its own, the real truth must be found among the despised."
“My formula for human greatness is amor fati: that one wants nothing to be different, not in the future, not in the past, not for all eternity. Not only to endure what is necessary, still less to conceal it — all idealism is falseness in the face of necessity — , but to love it...”
Trump isn't a Fascist! How dare you accuse him of that!
But, to inform you about his philosophy, I recommend you spend some time reading the works of one F. Nietzsche.+ Show Spoiler +
And before anybody gives me any of that "Nietzsche condemned the anti-semites" crap, his grounds for doing so were that they didn't take the amoralism far enough... and anyway he believed in the Jews being behind a "vast, subterranean conspiracy."
I would honestly be quite surprised if Trump had ever heard of Nietzsche, let alone read anything by him.
Please stop already with the shitposting. Ok we get it you dont like Trump. Deal with it,
On November 09 2016 21:06 oneofthem wrote: it was there, just not quantified. he captivated the popular imagination.
problem is running against 'the people' isnt likely to win, even if it is the right thing to do
whatever trump does wont help rural america, but at least they can die happy
I agree entirely with this statement : Trump is the opium of the masses. But still, it worked because the left totally converted itself to economic liberalism and lost what once was its stronghold.
On November 09 2016 14:16 zeo wrote: What a huge fuck you to the mainstream media. Feels so good.
ya this so much
the brexit mentality
I honestly have no clue what you mean with this. But when the media try to influence the people in a specific direction every single day one after another, then that does bother me as it does take away the power from the people and undermines the democratic process as a whole. But then when it appears that the people are able to see through this massive manipulation and don't give a shit about it (a manipulation many people here apearently support or at least don't care about) then ya it does feel good, ha ha.
I give respect where it's due. Trump definitely shocked the world with his wins over wins over wins, even though I wouldn't have voted for him.
Personally I think everything will be fine. Globalization flaws are finally showing and it is clear that Something needs to be done for those who were getting hit hard with no benefits to balance the benefits and cost.
I am only concerned about USA's global power presence since Trump is planning to retreat from global stage and focus on the US local, the power balance between US and Russia/China will change everything for decades if not generations to come.
On November 09 2016 21:07 zeo wrote: The Republican party hasn't been this strong since 1928. Think about how bad of a candidate Clinton was.
Are we ignoring all the years they actually won the popular vote for a reason orrrr
Are you going to ignore over 300 electoral votes?
Yes, because electoral votes are a poor proxy of the strength of the party. Especially when the person getting the electoral votes tweeted that the Speaker of the House was a loser.
(if you simply meant they control all three branches that's somewhat different, but I would argue 08 Dems were not really that strong when they controlled legislative/executive)
On November 09 2016 21:01 DannyJ wrote: Pretty sure people are overreacting to this. It's certainly worrisome in some concrete ways but the man isn't going to destroy the world in 4 years.
No he won't because the world will be in nuclear war under him in 4 months
IF you really believe this, contact your nearest therapist. It's for your good.
On November 09 2016 19:57 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:51 Laurens wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:49 bardtown wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:47 Penev wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:46 Laurens wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:41 Penev wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:39 Scrubwave wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:37 Disengaged wrote: I wake up to a god damn nightmare.
This country is doomed.
Better move out then. May I suggest some poor African country?
How about a rich European country? You are welcome in the Netherlands Disengaged
So you're pretty anti-Trump but you would advocate The Netherlands as a good place to run towards for people who don't like him.
That's funny.
Explain
Isn't your populist anti-Islamisation movement stronger than that in the US? I mean, it's actually a relevant issue in NL and not just a scapegoat.
Edit: Not fair to call it a scapegoat in the US. But it affects more people on a daily basis in NL.
This. Not to mention it dates back all the way to 2002, and who knows what would've happened if Fortuyn wasn't assassinated in the week before the elections.
For people who find Trump repulsive there are many superior choices to The Netherlands.
This makes you sound happy he was murdered... yeah real morale highground you got there
Don't put words in my mouth. I only implied that Fortuyn's party may have been a lot more popular if he wasn't murdered the week before the election. Nothing in my post suggests that I support the assassination.
FWIW I think it's absolute bullshit that Van der graaf was only in prison for 12 years and is now happily studying to become a lawyer. What a precedent.
Ehm Fortyn's death didn't lose his party votes. The general feeling is that it actually won them votes. However the party completely blew itself up without his leadership (and may have done so if he had been alive aswell).
That one election, sure. But years more of Fortuyn campaigning could have won them several more supporters. Instead, as you note, his party blew up without leadership.
On November 09 2016 19:57 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:51 Laurens wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:49 bardtown wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:47 Penev wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:46 Laurens wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:41 Penev wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:39 Scrubwave wrote:
On November 09 2016 19:37 Disengaged wrote: I wake up to a god damn nightmare.
This country is doomed.
Better move out then. May I suggest some poor African country?
How about a rich European country? You are welcome in the Netherlands Disengaged
So you're pretty anti-Trump but you would advocate The Netherlands as a good place to run towards for people who don't like him.
That's funny.
Explain
Isn't your populist anti-Islamisation movement stronger than that in the US? I mean, it's actually a relevant issue in NL and not just a scapegoat.
Edit: Not fair to call it a scapegoat in the US. But it affects more people on a daily basis in NL.
This. Not to mention it dates back all the way to 2002, and who knows what would've happened if Fortuyn wasn't assassinated in the week before the elections.
For people who find Trump repulsive there are many superior choices to The Netherlands.
This makes you sound happy he was murdered... yeah real morale highground you got there
Don't put words in my mouth. I only implied that Fortuyn's party may have been a lot more popular if he wasn't murdered the week before the election. Nothing in my post suggests that I support the assassination.
FWIW I think it's absolute bullshit that Van der graaf was only in prison for 12 years and is now happily studying to become a lawyer. What a precedent.
Fortyuns murder didn't affect the elections for his party negatively, on the contrary even. But besides him being way less ignorant (politically and otherwise) only up to a quarter of the population voted for him, not half.
See above. As for half the population, I'm sure you understand that The Netherlands is not a two-party first-past-the-post country.
On November 09 2016 21:01 DannyJ wrote: Pretty sure people are overreacting to this. It's certainly worrisome in some concrete ways but the man isn't going to destroy the world in 4 years. Presidents aren't omnipotent, especially ones like Trump who will even have members of his own party giving him endless shit.
Not to mention Donald is such a wildcard who in the flying fuck knows what he will really do when he actually has power. I'm pretty sure he knew most if not all of his grand ideas were impossible. He just knew he could strike a cord with the dullard masses and become President saying it...
I think it is a good opportunity to purposely leverage peoples fear of Trump to make them realize that Europe doesn't need to be Americas lapdog.
Look at what America did people. If we start falling apart as a continent now and don't instead unite in the face of this potential source of fascism, we will succumb to it as well -- if not by voting for it ourselves like idiots, then by the nuclear bombs from them or the current or next lunatic that runs Russia. Or maybe it will be terrorism, or global warming that gets us. In none of these cases can we rely on the Americans to lead us to a world of sensibility, we are going to have to do it ourselves. It's time to organize and unite Europe. Here's to the rest of our lives.
That would be great. NATO has ceased to fill any function except as a welfare security check to European countries since the collapse of the USSR. I wonder how you guys are going to pay for your lavish welfare states on top of increased military spending once NATO vanishes?
On November 09 2016 21:01 DannyJ wrote: Pretty sure people are overreacting to this. It's certainly worrisome in some concrete ways but the man isn't going to destroy the world in 4 years. Presidents aren't omnipotent, especially ones like Trump who will even have members of his own party giving him endless shit.
Not to mention Donald is such a wildcard who in the flying fuck knows what he will really do when he actually has power. I'm pretty sure he knew most if not all of his grand ideas were impossible. He just knew he could strike a cord with the dullard masses and become President saying it...
I think it is a good opportunity to purposely leverage peoples fear of Trump to make them realize that Europe doesn't need to be Americas lapdog.
Look at what America did people. If we start falling apart as a continent now and don't instead unite in the face of this potential source of fascism, we will succumb to it as well -- if not by voting for it ourselves like idiots, then by the nuclear bombs from them or the current or next lunatic that runs Russia. Or maybe it will be terrorism, or global warming that gets us. In none of these cases can we rely on the Americans to lead us to a world of sensibility, we are going to have to do it ourselves. It's time to organize and unite Europe. Here's to the rest of our lives.
That would be great. NATO has ceased to fill any function except as a welfare security check to European countries since the collapse of the USSR. I wonder how you guys are going to pay for your lavish welfare states on top of increased military spending once NATO vanishes?
On November 09 2016 21:06 oneofthem wrote: it was there, just not quantified. he captivated the popular imagination.
problem is running against 'the people' isnt likely to win, even if it is the right thing to do
whatever trump does wont help rural america, but at least they can die happy
I agree entirely with this statement : Trump is the opium of the masses. But still, it worked because the left totally converted itself to economic liberalism and lost what once was its stronghold.
This is interesting point but in America the "left" or democrats always where economic liberalists. It is in Europe that I can see this become an issue but in the usa not so much.
Maybe it is more that people used to believe in globalization,beeing "educated" by the media and now they slowly get confronted with the results of globalization and they are not happy with that.
On November 09 2016 21:01 DannyJ wrote: Pretty sure people are overreacting to this. It's certainly worrisome in some concrete ways but the man isn't going to destroy the world in 4 years. Presidents aren't omnipotent, especially ones like Trump who will even have members of his own party giving him endless shit.
Not to mention Donald is such a wildcard who in the flying fuck knows what he will really do when he actually has power. I'm pretty sure he knew most if not all of his grand ideas were impossible. He just knew he could strike a cord with the dullard masses and become President saying it...
I think it is a good opportunity to purposely leverage peoples fear of Trump to make them realize that Europe doesn't need to be Americas lapdog.
Look at what America did people. If we start falling apart as a continent now and don't instead unite in the face of this potential source of fascism, we will succumb to it as well -- if not by voting for it ourselves like idiots, then by the nuclear bombs from them or the current or next lunatic that runs Russia. Or maybe it will be terrorism, or global warming that gets us. In none of these cases can we rely on the Americans to lead us to a world of sensibility, we are going to have to do it ourselves. It's time to organize and unite Europe. Here's to the rest of our lives.
That would be great. NATO has ceased to fill any function except as a welfare security check to European countries since the collapse of the USSR. I wonder how you guys are going to pay for your lavish welfare states on top of increased military spending once NATO vanishes?
Just lol. Dunno what else to add to such fantasm.
He is right, if the Nato is no more, Germany would double its military spending from 40 Billions to 80 Billions and also ask Trump if his "lets sell them their own nukes" (which he said in the direction of Japan and SK) would also count for Germany. The moment the Nato falls, the EU states would have to put massive sums in their armies.
On November 09 2016 21:01 DannyJ wrote: Pretty sure people are overreacting to this. It's certainly worrisome in some concrete ways but the man isn't going to destroy the world in 4 years. Presidents aren't omnipotent, especially ones like Trump who will even have members of his own party giving him endless shit.
Not to mention Donald is such a wildcard who in the flying fuck knows what he will really do when he actually has power. I'm pretty sure he knew most if not all of his grand ideas were impossible. He just knew he could strike a cord with the dullard masses and become President saying it...
I think it is a good opportunity to purposely leverage peoples fear of Trump to make them realize that Europe doesn't need to be Americas lapdog.
Look at what America did people. If we start falling apart as a continent now and don't instead unite in the face of this potential source of fascism, we will succumb to it as well -- if not by voting for it ourselves like idiots, then by the nuclear bombs from them or the current or next lunatic that runs Russia. Or maybe it will be terrorism, or global warming that gets us. In none of these cases can we rely on the Americans to lead us to a world of sensibility, we are going to have to do it ourselves. It's time to organize and unite Europe. Here's to the rest of our lives.
That would be great. NATO has ceased to fill any function except as a welfare security check to European countries since the collapse of the USSR. I wonder how you guys are going to pay for your lavish welfare states on top of increased military spending once NATO vanishes?
Just lol. Dunno what else to add to such fantasm.
Well if Trump does only one thing and blows up NATO then I'll be happy. Then again, I'm one of those icky "isolationists" and America-Firsters when it comes to FP. It would be great to hand over responsibility back to you guys for your own defense. Such a gigantic waste of $$$$.
EPT
