EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 6090
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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MasterCynical
505 Posts
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ChristianS
United States3249 Posts
On November 09 2016 15:43 LegalLord wrote: My argument to the contrary. I think it would have been enough. An under-appreciated subthread of this electoral cycle: how hard it is to predict a presidential election. We had about as much information as you could possibly ask for to predict an election, short of seeing the results. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of interviews with voters going right up to the eve of the election, and still even 538, by far one of the more conservative models in this regard, gave Clinton 70%. To think that you could predict with any accuracy a hypothetical alternate timeline purely based on a brief knowledge of each individual and their strengths and weaknesses is bordering on absurd. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
User was warned for this post | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On November 09 2016 16:04 opisska wrote: Because people don't give a shit. The point is that everyone who wants to vote has it enormously easy. That is not the case in the US based on essentially every article I found on the topic. You need to understand that the policy differences between parties that have reasonable chance of getting elected are much smaller here (and generally in Europe) than in the US - and the proportional system also makes the elections less impactful, because it's not all or nothing for one or the other side. Things like voter IDs have been shown to affect voters highly unevenly, skewing the election results, maybe quite significantly because US elections are brutally close. "People not giving enough shit to vote" is quite a society-wide phenomenon. The turnout for senate elections was like 30 percent the last time around, because nobody even knows what that chamber does (not much, in fact, in our system). I compared the US presidential elections to Chamber of Deputies election, which both have roughly 60% voter turnouts. I think you're picking at straws, maybe you're right, if voting laws were more lax, Hillary might have won by 2%. Point stands that a very large portion of the US wants Donald Trump over Hillary, and imo there is good reason for it. I am now tired, and hence not going to reiterate the arguments I've made in the past. Most of the time, people who fail to understand the other side, the side that gets support of 50% of the US... Maybe they need to reevaluate the situation and not let prejudice dictate their reaction. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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CosmicSpiral
United States15275 Posts
On November 09 2016 15:59 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: This last comment needs context. It was a choice between invading with people (again) or sparing them lives and even greater condemnation. If the US had that power back then, especially Vietnam, they would have used it as well. It was choice between using drones and not human lives to wage war in an area that didn't ask nor need our intervention. More specifically, those were precision strikes on targets that often turned out to be innocent bystanders; oftentimes these were groups of people. But thanks to the totally obfuscated chain of command for such operations and general secrecy, fuck-ups that would usually lead to court-martials were dismissed out of hand. Furthermore, the very nature of it takes away the basic reason we don't engage in armed conflict: suffering casualties on our own end. | ||
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Scrubwave
Poland1786 Posts
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Dante08
Singapore4139 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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arb
Noobville17921 Posts
the mass amount of taxes and bullshit i've had imposed on myself personally as a result of obamacare and things like that are reason enough for me to be happy at the present anyway for this. The dream here is i no longer have to give 1/4 of my check to health care i don't fucking want nor fucking need and that things maybe will get a bit better than they are now. as far as people saying the country will crumble to ruin i highly doubt that. people said it about every president that's been elected for as long as i can remember and it hasnt happened yet | ||
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Introvert
United States4862 Posts
If the Clinton campaign calls for recounts Trump's "rigged" will just look better. Seriously. He isn't losing by small enough in enough states for it to matter. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 09 2016 16:09 Dante08 wrote: Wow didn't most polls sure Clinton leading? How were they so inaccurate? Or maybe it was rigged as Trump said? Turnout in rural areas really, really came through for Trump, while Hillary's turnout was mediocre. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On November 09 2016 16:09 Dante08 wrote: Wow didn't most polls sure Clinton leading? How were they so inaccurate? Or maybe it was rigged as Trump said? A likely explanation is that people are ashamed of telling other people they support Trump, and hence he was underrepresented in the polls. From the looks of it in popular vote, the polls were 3-4 points off. | ||
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DickMcFanny
Ireland1076 Posts
2. Step two: discriminate open against the candidate who has poor people at heart 3. Step three: be surprised that poor people didn't vote for your party. Glory glory hallelujah. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
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Leporello
United States2845 Posts
Nothing racist there at all. Idk how I'm going to sleep. America's best hope is that something can be done over the next couple months that will disqualify Donald's presidency. The voters have put the world at real risk, imo. Fuck the DNC, too. They took it all for granted. | ||
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ChristianS
United States3249 Posts
On November 09 2016 16:10 FiWiFaKi wrote: A likely explanation is that people are ashamed of telling other people they support Trump, and hence he was underrepresented in the polls. From the looks of it in popular vote, the polls were 3-4 points off. For more info, see the "Bradley Effect." | ||
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TheYango
United States47024 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 09 2016 16:10 xDaunt wrote: I just wish that I could be a fly on the wall for Obama's first transition meeting with Trump this week. I wouldn't want to be a fly anywhere around Obama given his impressive fly-swatting skills. | ||
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