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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3330

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
frazzle
Profile Joined June 2012
United States468 Posts
March 15 2016 22:18 GMT
#66581
Anyone got a source for poll closing times in the different states tonight?
Chewbacca.
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3634 Posts
March 15 2016 22:21 GMT
#66582
If the main page of drudge is correct:

NC/Ohio at 7:30
FL/IL/MO at 8:00
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18849 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 22:23:18
March 15 2016 22:21 GMT
#66583
North Carolina and Ohio close their primaries at 7:30 PM EST. Not sure about the others.

Edited for accuracy, thanks doc
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 22:26:44
March 15 2016 22:22 GMT
#66584
Per 538:
At 7:30 p.m. EDT, polls close in Ohio and North Carolina, followed by Florida, Illinois and Missouri 30 minutes later (some polls in Florida close at 7 p.m., but 8 p.m. is the earliest networks will call the state).


They might be off though. My polling place in NC definitely said 7:30.

I would also advise extreme caution in interpreting early NC vote totals. Depending on if they count absentee/early ballots last (or first), it will probably have a large effect on vote totals-I think both Duke and UNC are currently on spring break. I believe that might be the case in Ohio and Missouri as well, not sure.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12389 Posts
March 15 2016 22:31 GMT
#66585
On March 16 2016 06:48 SK.Testie wrote:
This is apparently going on as well.
http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1458069128762.png


Rofl come on Rubio that is so pathetic
No will to live, no wish to die
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 22:44:22
March 15 2016 22:41 GMT
#66586
On March 16 2016 07:22 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Per 538:
Show nested quote +
At 7:30 p.m. EDT, polls close in Ohio and North Carolina, followed by Florida, Illinois and Missouri 30 minutes later (some polls in Florida close at 7 p.m., but 8 p.m. is the earliest networks will call the state).


They might be off though. My polling place in NC definitely said 7:30.

I would also advise extreme caution in interpreting early NC vote totals. Depending on if they count absentee/early ballots last (or first), it will probably have a large effect on vote totals-I think both Duke and UNC are currently on spring break. I believe that might be the case in Ohio and Missouri as well, not sure.


Spring break was last week.

Although Duke's spring break is the last week of March apparently. private universities ^_^
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28742 Posts
March 15 2016 22:59 GMT
#66587
where's pat buchanan
Moderator
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10850 Posts
March 15 2016 23:00 GMT
#66588
On March 16 2016 06:53 Gorsameth wrote:
Even if nothing else comes off this election season I hope that it atleast makes both sides take a good look at the mess that is the primary voting (in all its forms) and tries to get some quality control on it.


You don't need quality control.

You need democracy instead of a media shitshow that lasts for an eternity.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 15 2016 23:18 GMT
#66589
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23652 Posts
March 15 2016 23:18 GMT
#66590
Rubio crushed by Trump in FL

SO much money just straight to the networks.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15737 Posts
March 15 2016 23:21 GMT
#66591
Interesting to see Clinton winning OH. I expect she'll end up barely losing OH and IL but bodyslamming Florida.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 15 2016 23:21 GMT
#66592
On March 16 2016 06:47 Souma wrote:
Pretty cool:


You know, more than anything else that just makes me feel bad for Jeb! Probably the least cost-effective candidate to ever run for prez.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 23:23:01
March 15 2016 23:22 GMT
#66593
On March 16 2016 08:18 GreenHorizons wrote:
Rubio crushed by Trump in FL

SO much money just straight to the networks.


Handy graph for that from NBC news

[image loading]
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 23:29:23
March 15 2016 23:28 GMT
#66594
oh results already starting to come in

[image loading]

granted only 4% reported but 27.3% for rubio is just sad lol

(7% as I posted this)
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
March 15 2016 23:34 GMT
#66595
Rubio isn't running for Senate this year. He is actually out of politics now. I guess I should thank him for handing a seat to the Democrats.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 23:45:54
March 15 2016 23:35 GMT
#66596
On March 16 2016 08:18 Ghanburighan wrote:
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/709876597248012288


Ok, I'll try something stupid. Let's see how exit polls (inaccurate) line up to 538 delegate targets (that are no longer up to date) assuming proportional delegate allocation where applicable (false assumption):

Florida:

Exit Poll 63% Clinton 37% Sanders
Target: 54% Clinton 46% Sanders
Delegates targets 116 Clinton 98 Sanders (214)
Delegate estimate 135 Clinton 79 Sanders
Delegate gains/losses +19 Clinton -19 Sanders

Ohio

Exit Poll 53% Clinton 47% Sanders
Target: 49.6% Clinton 50.4% Sanders
Delegates targets 71 Clinton 72 Sanders (143)
Delegates estimate 76 Clinton 67 Sanders
Delegate gains/losses +5 Clinton -5 Sanders

Illinois

Exit Poll 50% Clinton 50% Sanders
Target: 54% Clinton 46% Sanders
Delegates targets 85 Clinton 71 Sanders (156)
Delegates estimate 78 Clinton 78 Sanders
Delegate gains/losses -7 Clinton +7 Sanders

North Carolina (data from 538)

Exit Poll 54% Clinton 42% Sanders
Target: 53% Clinton 47% Sanders
Delegates targets 57 Clinton 50 Sanders (107)
Delegates estimate 58 Clinton 45 Sanders
Delegate gains/losses +1 Clinton -5 Sanders (wut)

Assume missing 4% split evenly:
Delegates estimate 60 Clinton 47 Sanders
Delegate gains/losses +3 Clinton -3 Sanders

Summary (without NC/MO): +20 Clinton
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18849 Posts
March 15 2016 23:35 GMT
#66597
Rubio will find a nice paycheck somewhere on K street
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 15 2016 23:36 GMT
#66598
I'll admit my poll skepticism is pretty high, but as a Hillary supporter i am cautiously optimistic.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11418 Posts
March 15 2016 23:38 GMT
#66599
On March 16 2016 06:14 ZasZ. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 16 2016 05:37 SK.Testie wrote:
On March 16 2016 05:26 Doodsmack wrote:
On March 16 2016 05:11 SK.Testie wrote:
I think Trump's most definitely lying for political gain, but they all are proven liars...It's just what issues are most important to Americans right now.


It seems your argument has a tendency to change in response to the counter points from others. Before you said the others were decidedly sleazier than Trump. It appears to me you have such a preconceived opinion against the establishment and media that Trump is an outlet for people like you to just be defiant. In the process, as an informed political activist you make incredible sacrifices in the quality of your candidate (assuming you support Trump) in order to fight against the establishment and media.


It's not preconceived. It's from just living life listening to them for the last 15 years. You can literally tell when they go on the news and when they are openly lying. There's a long list of lies in the attacks on Trump and the really genuine set-up to paint him as something he's not very often. The people voting for him are the ones seeing through that.

On March 16 2016 05:29 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Testie, I've never said that Trump is stupid. I say he is a liar. You said he was telling the truth, I say he makes up stuff. He inflates every number that makes himself or his message seem positive and deflates every number that makes someone else look positive or himself or his policies look negative. And they don't all do this. Yes Ted Cruz, and okay, if your argument is that 'Trump is better than Cruz' then fuck it, I'm not gonna bother arguing.

Just look at this
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/trump-fact-check-errors-exaggerations-falsehoods-213730#_ga=1.9616181.163558985.1391020600

Guy is incapable of speaking for 5 minutes without making something up. I'm not attacking his competence, I'm not even attacking his policies (but I really disagree with him on nearly everything). I'm attacking, vehemently so, the notion that he is honest and trustworthy. It's a lie that he has said so many times that people have started believing it, and it's terrifying to me.


The honesty angle comes from his base. Which are hyper informed reactionaries that believe capitalism isn't perfect but it's the best we've got so far. He speaks his mind, he doesn't talk like other politicians, he's talked about issues they are simply too afraid to even admit, let alone tackle.

Where does the honesty angle comes from? Because they see him as speaking a lot of truth and then they see that truth misrepresented and distorted by the media. So they rally even closer to him. There's some really choice examples that are really great for this.

As soon as way too many people compared him to Hitler, those people lost the publics trust and that trust was thrown more into Trump.
[image loading]


What is the long list of lies the media is telling about Trump? Most of what I have seen are direct quotes or clips from his rallies, where you can see he is an agitator who can barely string a sentence together. Plenty of people see him speaking the truth but the problem is they are seeing it wrong. The man is a liar. It has been proven over and over again.

Or just appalling policies that he reveals (the few that he does). Fox and Friends Dec, 2015 "The other thing with the terrorists is you have to take out their families, when you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families." Rand Paul correctly called him out in their debate that this would be going against the Geneva convention, but none of that seems to matter to his base. Trump really seems to be an ends justify the means sort of guy and found a lot of people that agree.
Moderator"In Trump We Trust," says the Golden Goat of Mars Lago. Have faith and believe! Trump moves in mysterious ways. Like the wind he blows where he pleases...
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
March 15 2016 23:38 GMT
#66600
are the delegates distributed by winner takes it all or do the candidates get the delegates proportionately?
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