EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 3232
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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CannonsNCarriers
United States638 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On March 09 2016 10:44 GreenHorizons wrote: The closest he was (in public), was in a poll this morning that had him 9 points behind Here's what 538 was projecting: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/ He might still fall to those numbers... | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On March 09 2016 10:46 oneofthem wrote: wayne county hasn't even come in yet What does that mean? | ||
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farvacola
United States18870 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
hillary will get a big edge from taht county | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
Bernie may not hit 15% in MS | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24444 Posts
On March 09 2016 10:51 ticklishmusic wrote: JFC Bernie may not hit 15% in MS He's over 15% with 1% reporting? It's going to be close tonight but no question Bernie is overperforming in MI. We can all agree Rubio's political career is done unless he ends up in some random cabinet position? | ||
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Adreme
United States5574 Posts
On March 09 2016 10:55 GreenHorizons wrote: He's over 15% with 1% reporting? It's going to be close tonight but no question Bernie is overperforming in MI. For the 538 delagate math I am looking at he needs to win this state not just overperform it and honestly I think this math is very charitable to him in many cases and it keeps showing in the results when he underperforms it. | ||
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IgnE
United States7684 Posts
On March 09 2016 07:36 oneofthem wrote: pakistan is a security state, especially in the 70's. the ISI ran a tight ship. going to war vs pakistan wasn't going to stop them from getting nukes from china eventually, especially after india got it. it was a balance between china and india since the 60's. and let's not talk so cavalierly about starting wars in that region, highly dangerous. Giving Pakistan nukes makes it safer of course. Especially with nuts like Modi on the other side of the line. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24444 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:00 Adreme wrote: For the 538 delagate math I am looking at he needs to win this state not just overperform it and honestly I think this math is very charitable to him in many cases and it keeps showing in the results when he underperforms it. Two separate things. Sanders supporters are happy because he apparently erased a 30 point gap in 2 weeks and a ~20 point gap in 2 days. Basically that says none of the polls for upcoming states are as set in stone as people would of suggested before this performance. Also this performance means he can't be performing as bad with black people up north as he was down south (but those states are pretty much done) But basically any campaign would be thrilled to come back ~17% in 2 days. even if they ended up a delegate or two short. Sanders is absolutely crushing her with independents too so that makes a strong case for being a better general election candidate along with winning states that will actually go blue. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:01 IgnE wrote: Giving Pakistan nukes makes it safer of course. Especially with nuts like Modi on the other side of the line. eh there is real possibility of tactical nuke usage in that area, cant see how that is ever a good thing. it is seriously a powderkeg | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:05 GreenHorizons wrote: Two separate things. Sanders supporters are happy because he apparently erased a 30 point gap in 2 weeks and a ~20 point gap in 2 days. Basically that says none of the polls for upcoming states are as set in stone as people would of suggested before this performance. Also this performance means he can't be performing as bad with black people up north as he was down south (but those states are pretty much done) But basically any campaign would be thrilled to come back ~17% in 2 days. even if they ended up a delegate or two short. Sanders is absolutely crushing her with independents too so that makes a strong case for being a better general election candidate along with winning states that will actually go blue. How do you think the 15th needs to go in order for Bernie to stay relevant? | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:08 Mohdoo wrote: How do you think the 15th needs to go in order for Bernie to stay relevant? This is the relevant question. He has to actually win some states on the 15th, rather than slightly lose. At some point, you gotta win. Also, I can't fucking believe he's up 4% in a state 538 said he had 1% chance at winning, down an average of 20%. If this holds, I'd say it's one of the biggest primary upsets in recent history. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Adreme
United States5574 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:11 oneofthem wrote: independent voters are either low information or just angry, neither shows sanders in a good light Swing voters as a whole are typically lower information voters and that has always been true and one of the biggest myths is politics is that they are somehow these great deciders who carefully plot out there decision. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:11 oneofthem wrote: independent voters are either low information or just angry, neither shows sanders in a good light Lol. I guarantee you, if HRC was crushing with indies, it would be good because she's showing she can be "bipartisan" and appeal to a general electorate. The double standard is so fucking obvious lol | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24444 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:08 Mohdoo wrote: How do you think the 15th needs to go in order for Bernie to stay relevant? I want to win them all. I honestly haven't even thought about it much, been so focused on MI. I also have been working non-stop for about the last 40 hours so my brain is basically jello and wrote memorization. Florida is probably one of the toughest races (soooo many old people) NC is probably a potential upset. Really we'll have to see what happens to the polls after tonight. But I'll be damned if the pundits admit how wrong they were about MI and actually cover this like Bernie just won 4 of the last 6 and the two he lost are republican. Or that he is absolutely crushing her with independents. If they actually talked about him like they would if he was establishment it would be over in a Bernie landslide. Alas, with Chris Matthews wife dependent on Hillary's donors we won't be hearing anything about any thrills up his leg for Bernie. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4460 Posts
On March 09 2016 11:15 darthfoley wrote: This is the relevant question. He has to actually win some states on the 15th, rather than slightly lose. At some point, you gotta win. Also, I can't fucking believe he's up 4% in a state 538 said he had 1% chance at winning, down an average of 20%. If this holds, I'd say it's one of the biggest primary upsets in recent history. The media will still spin it positively for Clinton | ||
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