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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On March 09 2016 00:15 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2016 00:02 Mohdoo wrote: How bad does Bernie need to do tonight before it gets awkward for him to not be dropping out? I think he'll drop out when it gets weird. He's willing to fight up hill, but he won't do what Carson did. Do Hillary supporters really want him to drop out? Hillary only gets media in relation to him or the multiple federal investigations she's got to think about. She hasn't had a press conference in months? She wouldn't even be asked questions by "journalists" if it weren't for town halls or debates. She has easily been the most reclusive candidate in many cycles.
Because until Bernie endorses Clinton, we are going to see Facebook flooded with anti-Clinton memes. Bernie's only purpose right now is lowering Clinton's eventual voter turnout. He won't accomplish anything else at this point.
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On March 09 2016 00:18 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2016 00:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 09 2016 00:02 Mohdoo wrote: How bad does Bernie need to do tonight before it gets awkward for him to not be dropping out? I think he'll drop out when it gets weird. He's willing to fight up hill, but he won't do what Carson did. She hasn't had a press conference in months? I'm fairly certain she did one recently. It was after ~84? days without a press appearance, so your point is still valid - but at this point that's no longer accurate.
IDK about press conferences, but you hold those when something big happens. Otherwise you keep campaigning across the country. Hillary and Bernie do who knows how many town halls/ other events per day, they're both in the top 20 (guessing) scrutinized people in America right now.
Side note: I really liked the Fox News town hall. It was much more dynamic, both candidates seemed engaged rather than "ugh I have to do another one of these town halls". I guess going into the lion's den had them on alert. Fox did an okay job too, still bias there but not shabby.
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United States43255 Posts
On March 08 2016 16:10 wei2coolman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2016 16:05 Jibba wrote:On March 08 2016 14:24 wei2coolman wrote:http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-03/should-donald-trump-have-indexed-Here's a really good read for the financially inept who keep saying "Donald trump under performed compared to stock market" meme. With zero account of Brand value, along with zero context of investment environment at the time he received his money. (good choices does not always mean good outcome, and bad choices doesn't always mean bad outcomes). The index fund comparison is meant to show that his wealth has basically grown at an average rate that normal citizens are capable of. If you actually started with $200 million or any multi million dollar sum, you almost certainly wouldn't put it in an index fund and you'd probably vastly outperform the index. The index is the bare minimum of what should've happened to his money and, depending on the calculation and how much you want to value his brand, shows he did slightly above that line. The index is assuming zero living expense along with full reinvestment, along with zero portfolio diversification outside of an index. It's also assuming that you don't have a day job. It's not unreasonable to assume that someone's day job pays for their living expenses rather than relying on daddy's money for that too. The comparison holds up. If your defence of him as a businessmen is "well of course he didn't make much out of his inheritance, he had to spend it on living expenses, it's not like he could earn enough to live on by himself", well, that speaks for itself.
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Canada11372 Posts
I honestly wouldn't take away from Trump's acumen. It is simply is not the case that an inheritor of great wealth will necessarily be able to turn around and maintain the wealth, never mind turn it into something greater. I don't know how true it is, but I've seen several articles claim that the majority of wealthy families (new money) lose it by the second, but certainly by the third generation. The articles then speculate one what those other families were doing right. But new money can very often have the first generation that are hard working and with good business sense, but the next two generations waste it all away, maybe on high/ wasteful living or else simply bad business enterprises. But Trump expanding what he was given... that should never be a line of attack on him, in my opinion. Sure he had a big step up that I will never have. But he DID something with it. And that's the point.
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On March 09 2016 00:27 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2016 00:18 jcarlsoniv wrote:On March 09 2016 00:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 09 2016 00:02 Mohdoo wrote: How bad does Bernie need to do tonight before it gets awkward for him to not be dropping out? I think he'll drop out when it gets weird. He's willing to fight up hill, but he won't do what Carson did. She hasn't had a press conference in months? I'm fairly certain she did one recently. It was after ~84? days without a press appearance, so your point is still valid - but at this point that's no longer accurate. IDK about press conferences, but you hold those when something big happens. Otherwise you keep campaigning across the country. Hillary and Bernie do who knows how many town halls/ other events per day, they're both in the top 20 (guessing) scrutinized people in America right now. Side note: I really liked the Fox News town hall. It was much more dynamic, both candidates seemed engaged rather than "ugh I have to do another one of these town halls". I guess going into the lion's den had them on alert. Fox did an okay job too, still bias there but not shabby.
While I understand the tactical disadvantage a frontrunner in general would have going in front of press, it's still notable. It goes in concert with wanting to have as little general exposure as possible (arguments about so few debates - although I agree that the number of town halls has smoothed that out fairly nicely).
I also really liked the Fox town hall. It's hilarious to me that one of the most unbiased events was run by Fox (even though they didn't hesitate to grill Hillary on the emails). Both candidates did well, although you could definitely tell Hillary was moving a bit back to center for some of it. I admit I had a chuckle when she mentioned Reagan in the first 2 minutes of her segment. Again, not necessarily faulting the tactics, but it's indicative of things to come.
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Actually, would be dope if Trump and Sanders lose primary and both ran as independent.
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On March 09 2016 00:46 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2016 00:27 ticklishmusic wrote:On March 09 2016 00:18 jcarlsoniv wrote:On March 09 2016 00:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 09 2016 00:02 Mohdoo wrote: How bad does Bernie need to do tonight before it gets awkward for him to not be dropping out? I think he'll drop out when it gets weird. He's willing to fight up hill, but he won't do what Carson did. She hasn't had a press conference in months? I'm fairly certain she did one recently. It was after ~84? days without a press appearance, so your point is still valid - but at this point that's no longer accurate. IDK about press conferences, but you hold those when something big happens. Otherwise you keep campaigning across the country. Hillary and Bernie do who knows how many town halls/ other events per day, they're both in the top 20 (guessing) scrutinized people in America right now. Side note: I really liked the Fox News town hall. It was much more dynamic, both candidates seemed engaged rather than "ugh I have to do another one of these town halls". I guess going into the lion's den had them on alert. Fox did an okay job too, still bias there but not shabby. While I understand the tactical disadvantage a frontrunner in general would have going in front of press, it's still notable. It goes in concert with wanting to have as little general exposure as possible (arguments about so few debates - although I agree that the number of town halls has smoothed that out fairly nicely). I also really liked the Fox town hall. It's hilarious to me that one of the most unbiased events was run by Fox (even though they didn't hesitate to grill Hillary on the emails). Both candidates did well, although you could definitely tell Hillary was moving a bit back to center for some of it. I admit I had a chuckle when she mentioned Reagan in the first 2 minutes of her segment. Again, not necessarily faulting the tactics, but it's indicative of things to come.
I think it's pretty much certain she'll win Michigan and Florida at this point. Time to crank it to the center.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the latest big bank to pull back from coal.
The New York bank will no longer finance new coal mines around the world and will end support for new coal-fired power plants being developed in “high income” countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, JPMorgan said in a policy statement on its website.
JPMorgan is joining a growing list of financial institutions including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. that have pledged to stop or scale back support for coal projects. It’s part of a broader divestment campaign led by environmental groups including San Francisco-based Rainforest Action Network looking to move the world’s economies beyond fossil fuels.
“We believe the financial services sector has an important role to play as governments implement policies to combat climate change,” JPMorgan said in the document.
The National Mining Association, which represents coal producers including Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc., called JPMorgan’s changes “hardly a heroic gesture” given challenging market conditions for all fossil fuels. “The bank hedges its bets on financing projects in developing countries, because, not surprisingly, that’s where the growth is and will be,” group spokesman Luke Popovich said in an e-mail.
The divestment campaign still delivers another blow to an industry already struggling through its worst downturn in decades. Coal is under siege from cheap natural gas stealing market share at power plants, tougher emissions standards and slowing global demand. The combined market capitalization of U.S. coal miners since 2011 has plunged from $74.4 billion to less than $7 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Outside of rich countries, JPMorgan will back only coal-fired power plants that employ “ultra-supercritical” technology that is more efficient than conventional systems. The bank will consider on a "case-by-case basis" coal plants that capture carbon-dioxide emissions and prevent their release into the atmosphere.
Source
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On March 09 2016 00:52 wei2coolman wrote: Actually, would be dope if Trump and Sanders lose primary and both ran as independent.
That could lead to the potentially terrifying scenario where no one hits 270 and the House picks the President and we end up with Rubio or something.
On March 09 2016 01:10 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Coal investing] +JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the latest big bank to pull back from coal.
The New York bank will no longer finance new coal mines around the world and will end support for new coal-fired power plants being developed in “high income” countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, JPMorgan said in a policy statement on its website.
JPMorgan is joining a growing list of financial institutions including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. that have pledged to stop or scale back support for coal projects. It’s part of a broader divestment campaign led by environmental groups including San Francisco-based Rainforest Action Network looking to move the world’s economies beyond fossil fuels.
“We believe the financial services sector has an important role to play as governments implement policies to combat climate change,” JPMorgan said in the document. The National Mining Association, which represents coal producers including Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc., called JPMorgan’s changes “hardly a heroic gesture” given challenging market conditions for all fossil fuels. “The bank hedges its bets on financing projects in developing countries, because, not surprisingly, that’s where the growth is and will be,” group spokesman Luke Popovich said in an e-mail.
The divestment campaign still delivers another blow to an industry already struggling through its worst downturn in decades. Coal is under siege from cheap natural gas stealing market share at power plants, tougher emissions standards and slowing global demand. The combined market capitalization of U.S. coal miners since 2011 has plunged from $74.4 billion to less than $7 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Outside of rich countries, JPMorgan will back only coal-fired power plants that employ “ultra-supercritical” technology that is more efficient than conventional systems. The bank will consider on a "case-by-case basis" coal plants that capture carbon-dioxide emissions and prevent their release into the atmosphere. Source
Also, lets be real the bulge bracket banks are pulling out of coal not only because it causes pollution, but also because it has decent optics and the old school energy business is awful right now.
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Barack Obama and Justin Trudeau will commit to work together to fight climate change and protect an Arctic experiencing the mildest winter ever recorded, sources familiar with the initiatives said.
The two leaders were expected to announce a number of common climate measures at a meeting at the White House this week, from a 45% cut in methane emissions from the oil and gas industry to protections for a rapidly warming Arctic.
The state visit on Thursday is seen as an important moment for Trudeau to break with his Conservative predecessor, Stephen Harper, who was accused of muzzling government scientists and backtracking on climate promises.
The visit – four months after Trudeau’s election and 11 months before Obama leaves the White House – offered a rare window of opportunity to advance the cause that is important to both leaders, the Canadian prime minister said.
“There is a nice alignment between a Canadian prime minister who wants to get all sorts of things done right off the bat and an American president who is thinking about the legacy he is going to leave in his last year in office,” Trudeau told a Huffington Post town hall.
“The issues that are important to him and to me are climate change … We’re talking about border issues, as well – making sure there is a smooth flow of goods and people across our shared border that isn’t putting our security at risk.”
Taking prime position among those issues was the Arctic – where winter temperatures are 7C above normal this year and the sea ice cover is also dwindling towards a new record low. In Alaska, the winter was so unseasonably warm that the authorities were forced to import freight cars full of snow for the launch of the annual Iditarod dog sledding race.
Source
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Coal was always on a clock anyways. They tried to sustain themselves as a viable sources of power, but burning compressed carbon was going to get outpaced by other technologies at some point. Climate change is just icing on the cake, since it is starting to threaten other industries.
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On March 09 2016 00:02 Mohdoo wrote: How bad does Bernie need to do tonight before it gets awkward for him to not be dropping out? I think he'll drop out when it gets weird. He's willing to fight up hill, but he won't do what Carson did. He is still in the position of "probably not going to win but has a feasible chance of pulling an upset." The future states are demographically decent for him and he has a better chance for those states than he has had for the Super Tuesday coalition of South states (where Hillary won decisively in the states that won't vote for her in the general).
Honestly I think he's trying to push the party to the left.
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A spokesman for Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-FL) presidential campaign on Tuesday accused Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-TX) campaign of carrying out more "dirty tricks" in the Republican presidential primary.
Rubio spokesman Alex Conant on MSNBC said that Cruz's campaign tried to "undermine" Rubio by sending an email to voters in Hawaii highlighting a CNN report that some of Rubio's advisers were telling the Florida senator to get out of the race ahead of the Florida primary. The Rubio campaign has denied the CNN report.
"The Ted Cruz campaign sent that to some of our supporters in Hawaii yesterday suggesting that Marco Rubio is getting out of the race," Conant said on MSNBC. "That’s the exact same thing that Ted Cruz did to Ben Carson in Iowa. There’s no place for that in Republican politics."
Conant also mentioned a report that Cruz might open field offices in Florida.
"We have seen no evidence of Ted Cruz campaigning in Florida. He has no plans to go to Florida — at least he hasn’t announced any plans to go to Florida other than for the debate," Conant said.
"He is not being honest about what he is doing in Florida. He’s not being honest to Republican primary voters or caucusgoers in Hawaii today. It’s an unfortunate state of the campaign," Conant later added.
Source
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I wonder when/if Trump is going to pass 34% of the aggregate vote before the end of the primaries if people stick in. He'd be the first person in a while to get a nomination off the back of that kind of number I think.
Then again no matter who gets the nod they'll have done real bad in the popular vote just due to how many people are sticking around.
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If these allegations are even mildly true about Cruz and his campaign, they should be investigated. That is some high level garbage and I’m 90% sure it is illegal.
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On March 09 2016 01:44 Plansix wrote: If these allegations are even mildly true about Cruz and his campaign, they should be investigated. That is some high level garbage and I’m 90% sure it is illegal. He has done similar stuff before. Vote violations
Just another notch showing how much he is willing to do for power
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The worst part about modern US elections is that regulators are to afraid to step when shit like this happens, for fear of tainting the process. So people like Cruz taint the process with mailers like that. What garbage. My loathing of Cruz grows every day.
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On March 09 2016 01:13 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2016 00:52 wei2coolman wrote: Actually, would be dope if Trump and Sanders lose primary and both ran as independent. That could lead to the potentially terrifying scenario where no one hits 270 and the House picks the President and we end up with Rubio or something. Show nested quote +On March 09 2016 01:10 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Coal investing] +JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the latest big bank to pull back from coal.
The New York bank will no longer finance new coal mines around the world and will end support for new coal-fired power plants being developed in “high income” countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, JPMorgan said in a policy statement on its website.
JPMorgan is joining a growing list of financial institutions including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. that have pledged to stop or scale back support for coal projects. It’s part of a broader divestment campaign led by environmental groups including San Francisco-based Rainforest Action Network looking to move the world’s economies beyond fossil fuels.
“We believe the financial services sector has an important role to play as governments implement policies to combat climate change,” JPMorgan said in the document. The National Mining Association, which represents coal producers including Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc., called JPMorgan’s changes “hardly a heroic gesture” given challenging market conditions for all fossil fuels. “The bank hedges its bets on financing projects in developing countries, because, not surprisingly, that’s where the growth is and will be,” group spokesman Luke Popovich said in an e-mail.
The divestment campaign still delivers another blow to an industry already struggling through its worst downturn in decades. Coal is under siege from cheap natural gas stealing market share at power plants, tougher emissions standards and slowing global demand. The combined market capitalization of U.S. coal miners since 2011 has plunged from $74.4 billion to less than $7 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Outside of rich countries, JPMorgan will back only coal-fired power plants that employ “ultra-supercritical” technology that is more efficient than conventional systems. The bank will consider on a "case-by-case basis" coal plants that capture carbon-dioxide emissions and prevent their release into the atmosphere. Source Also, lets be real the bulge bracket banks are pulling out of coal not only because it causes pollution, but also because it has decent optics and the old school energy business is awful right now. Well such a scenario would have the merit of showing the absurdness of having an indirect vote for something like a Presidential election. What exactly is the goal of that?
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On March 08 2016 23:24 xDaunt wrote: These attacks on Trump's wealth and business acumen aren't sticking and never will. They aren't particularly well-grounded, and they are overwhelmed by the popular perception of Trump courtesy of his TV persona. I think the facts are in on this, xDaunt, Trump is a greedy capitalist who only cares about himself, and only knows how to exploit his brand. Mitt Romney of Bain Capital and Tim Cook of Apple both agree. We can't elect someone like that.
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United States22883 Posts
On March 08 2016 17:02 wei2coolman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2016 16:11 Jibba wrote:On March 08 2016 16:10 wei2coolman wrote:On March 08 2016 16:05 Jibba wrote:On March 08 2016 14:24 wei2coolman wrote:http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-03/should-donald-trump-have-indexed-Here's a really good read for the financially inept who keep saying "Donald trump under performed compared to stock market" meme. With zero account of Brand value, along with zero context of investment environment at the time he received his money. (good choices does not always mean good outcome, and bad choices doesn't always mean bad outcomes). The index fund comparison is meant to show that his wealth has basically grown at an average rate that normal citizens are capable of. If you actually started with $200 million or any multi million dollar sum, you almost certainly wouldn't put it in an index fund and you'd probably vastly outperform the index. The index is the bare minimum of what should've happened to his money and, depending on the calculation and how much you want to value his brand, shows he did slightly above that line. The index is assuming zero living expense along with full reinvestment, along with zero portfolio diversification outside of an index. The index is your (somewhat) diversified portfolio. You don't pay for living expenses with illiquid assets either. He owns apartments but he doesn't live in them for free. His apartments have a cost. Regardless, the idea is still that the every-man can return the index rate without much thought or effort. The index is still a single point of failure since index alone is a singular company buying what they think is an index of said market. It also completely ignores the fact that the index doesn't create anything. What do you think the index is made of? Money fairies that generate random value? No. It's people like Trump, and other companies creating value that people buy into. I'm circling back to this because I'm not sure you understand what the S&P 500 index is. The only company making a determination is S&P. It is only a single point of failure the way measuring the entire stock market is a single point of failure - since those 500~ companies tend to be a mark of the general economy. It's still smart to add more than just equity, but as far as equity ownership goes it's as diversified as 99% of people will get.
The index creates value the same way any other stock ownership creates value. It spreads it more evenly, but we're still only talking about 500~ companies out of tens of thousands of companies. And those companies have shown they can use the same money to generate similar or better value. Beyond that, this point is only relevant to economists, not investors and even then it's fairly moot because we're talking about a single small-medium cap company - a drop in the ocean. People don't start companies out of duty for our economic system, they do it because they want to provide items/services/value to other people and because they like their prospects of getting richer.
No one has accused Trump of not wanting to do either of these two things. He obviously enjoys the real estate business and he's free to believe in his own potential. We're pointing out that the idea of him having an incredible record of success and value-creation, relative to his peers, rings false. If you exclude it to just peers in commercial real estate, it's false. I said before that he's good at luxury real estate, but that doesn't translate to overall business.
And there's nothing wrong with starting with a silver spoon in your mouth. It just irks people when he parlays it into calling himself a self-made man and a fabulous wealth creator, when that article shows even at best he's an above average wealth creator.
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