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There are issues in sample size, as it can really be down to individual performance when it's this small.
But regardless, on to the stats posted.
The patch affected all match ups, but 1.4.3 and onwards affected TvZ the most out of all of them. While the Queen buff/Overlord buff affects ZvP as well, Terran early pressure has gotten much more difficult. Hellion openings and Bunker pressure have become more difficult with the Queen range, and I think we can all agree on this. Considering that TvZ's metagame has changed to more greedy openings, and heavy Hellion/Banshee types of map control.
Your point on the topic was that these Zergs should be having consistent ZvT, or improvement throughout all 3 match ups otherwise it can be (atleast partially) attributed to Patch changes.
What it showed was that all 3 players listed had a marked improvement in ZvT. I'm not sure how you can conclude that it hasn't affected these players. I won't generalize your findings to all Zergs though, but it looks like you basically created your own counter-argument to your point.
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On August 20 2012 10:01 nkr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 09:57 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 09:47 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:45 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 09:41 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:38 Zanno wrote:
why do you try taking a look at the winrates of foreign terrans and see how that's going If you read my post, that was not actually the point of it at all. I was never saying that zerg wasnt favored vs terran. I was saying that these players arent where they are because of it. Please read all of the OP. It's even bolded. He means do it vice versa. You can compare the relative jumps to the relative decreases for a better more accurate representation imo. At least thats what i think he means. I honestly would love to see 2 established/2new of each race, before and after. And then compare all 3. Im guess im just curious about ALL the data :/ I'm not really sure what you're getting at. Do you mean taking three terrans that were not top before the patch, and look at stats to see how they didn't get better? The point here is not about zerg or terran as a race, but rather about specific players and if they got better or are winning because of zergs buff vs T. Your not understanding. I mean theres an easier way to find out whether or not zergs are winning because of the buff. Take your 4 zergs (or however many patchzergs people think they are), and match it up vs the same stats for Terran. You can look at both of the races to see how far zerg increased, and how far some of the terrans decreased. It gives a more accurate result imo. Seeing how far the terrans decreased in zvt is just as good seeing how high zergs increased in zvt. The first may not show you who patchzergs are, but it will give evidence as to whether or not patchzerg is even real. I don't really agree that is has any relevance here. All it will show is that terran has been doing worse versus zerg since the patch, which is not something that I was even questioning.
which means patchzergs do indeed exist, i just dont get how zvz is ok still makes up for the fact you showed larger than 5 percent increase in winrates for each player in zvt in just a tiny game pool
wait till you have legit amount of games and then run the stats again, it will be worse
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SortOf just finfished school around april/may an started gaming full time from there.
Stephano says ZvT is pretty balanced. Sure he owns Protoss but this is how he rolls long before 1.3.4 , other zergs still have trouble (ask idra).
slivko and vortix are just fucking good.
T whining is just awful... we had so many tournaments with TvT semis and finals - it SUCKS!
bless god that time is over..
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United States18282 Posts
On August 20 2012 09:46 TargA wrote:
real
Fair enough.
My thoughts:
I think that the OP does bring up a good discussion (though it is always a minefield to discuss balance), but you simply cannot just look at 3 players and draw a conclusion.
There is absolutely no denying that the patch really helped Zerg players immediately after the patch, when the metagame, particularly ZvT, was in flux. But the term patchzergs suggests that the players were only winning due to the patch, which I think understates the players' ability. I'd wager that the patch did help DRG win MLG Spring, and make the Code S semifinals, but it would be insane to suggest that the patch was the only factor towards DRG's success, and not his inherent talent and experiences.
Likewise, players like Life, Byul, Coca and even Symbol also had great GSTL showings soon after the patch. Aside from possibly Byul, I would not call Life, Coca, or Symbol patchzergs because they are each very strong players in their own right, but the patch definitely helped.
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On August 20 2012 10:03 ohampatu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 10:01 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:57 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 09:47 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:45 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 09:41 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:38 Zanno wrote:
why do you try taking a look at the winrates of foreign terrans and see how that's going If you read my post, that was not actually the point of it at all. I was never saying that zerg wasnt favored vs terran. I was saying that these players arent where they are because of it. Please read all of the OP. It's even bolded. He means do it vice versa. You can compare the relative jumps to the relative decreases for a better more accurate representation imo. At least thats what i think he means. I honestly would love to see 2 established/2new of each race, before and after. And then compare all 3. Im guess im just curious about ALL the data :/ I'm not really sure what you're getting at. Do you mean taking three terrans that were not top before the patch, and look at stats to see how they didn't get better? The point here is not about zerg or terran as a race, but rather about specific players and if they got better or are winning because of zergs buff vs T. Your not understanding. I mean theres an easier way to find out whether or not zergs are winning because of the buff. Take your 4 zergs (or however many patchzergs people think they are), and match it up vs the same stats for Terran. You can look at both of the races to see how far zerg increased, and how far some of the terrans decreased. It gives a more accurate result imo. Seeing how far the terrans decreased in zvt is just as good seeing how high zergs increased in zvt. The first may not show you who patchzergs are, but it will give evidence as to whether or not patchzerg is even real. I don't really agree that is has any relevance here. All it will show is that terran has been doing worse versus zerg since the patch, which is not something that I was even questioning. which means patchzergs do indeed exist, i just dont get how zvz is ok still makes up for the fact you showed larger than 5 percent increase in winrates for each player in zvt in just a tiny game pool wait till you have legit amount of games and then run the stats again, it will be worse
No, all this showed was that yes, they are doing better in zvt, but they are not carried by their results in zvt nor are they even their best matchups. This is what I take away from the stats. However they are always up for personal interpretation I suppose.
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I'm sorry nkr, but if you look at the statistics, there is a HUGE increase in these specific zergs win rates compared to the decrease. Though sortof is an outlier on this, vortix is proof the patchzerg issue. Along with that, just because they won at this one tournament means little, but the fact that they were able to take out top korean terrans along with wins in the TSL3 proves something. Patch zergs are a thing, much like beta-terrans who 5 rax reapered or who 11/11 raxed. They will be patched out and end up just like Pwn and Trump, not being able to keep up with pack once their "imbalance" (and I use that word loosely) is fixed/found out. At least that is my take on it.
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On August 20 2012 10:03 Bagration wrote:Fair enough. My thoughts: I think that the OP does bring up a good discussion (though it is always a minefield to discuss balance), but you simply cannot just look at 3 players and draw a conclusion. There is absolutely no denying that the patch really helped Zerg players immediately after the patch, when the metagame, particularly ZvT, was in flux. But the term patchzergs suggests that the players were only winning due to the patch, which I think understates the players' ability. I'd wager that the patch did help DRG win MLG Spring, and make the Code S semifinals, but it would be insane to suggest that the patch was the only factor towards DRG's success, and not his inherent talent and experiences. Likewise, players like Life, Byul, Coca and even Symbol also had great GSTL showings soon after the patch. Aside from possibly Byul, I would not call Life, Coca, or Symbol patchzergs because they are each very strong players in their own right, but the patch definitely helped.
My problem with your first lines is that this was never meant to discuss balance, and I never drew any conclusions about balance. That part is even bolded. My conclusion was that these players are not where they are because of their ZvT, or the patch if you will.
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On August 20 2012 10:05 nkr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 10:03 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 10:01 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:57 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 09:47 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:45 ohampatu wrote:On August 20 2012 09:41 nkr wrote:On August 20 2012 09:38 Zanno wrote:
why do you try taking a look at the winrates of foreign terrans and see how that's going If you read my post, that was not actually the point of it at all. I was never saying that zerg wasnt favored vs terran. I was saying that these players arent where they are because of it. Please read all of the OP. It's even bolded. He means do it vice versa. You can compare the relative jumps to the relative decreases for a better more accurate representation imo. At least thats what i think he means. I honestly would love to see 2 established/2new of each race, before and after. And then compare all 3. Im guess im just curious about ALL the data :/ I'm not really sure what you're getting at. Do you mean taking three terrans that were not top before the patch, and look at stats to see how they didn't get better? The point here is not about zerg or terran as a race, but rather about specific players and if they got better or are winning because of zergs buff vs T. Your not understanding. I mean theres an easier way to find out whether or not zergs are winning because of the buff. Take your 4 zergs (or however many patchzergs people think they are), and match it up vs the same stats for Terran. You can look at both of the races to see how far zerg increased, and how far some of the terrans decreased. It gives a more accurate result imo. Seeing how far the terrans decreased in zvt is just as good seeing how high zergs increased in zvt. The first may not show you who patchzergs are, but it will give evidence as to whether or not patchzerg is even real. I don't really agree that is has any relevance here. All it will show is that terran has been doing worse versus zerg since the patch, which is not something that I was even questioning. which means patchzergs do indeed exist, i just dont get how zvz is ok still makes up for the fact you showed larger than 5 percent increase in winrates for each player in zvt in just a tiny game pool wait till you have legit amount of games and then run the stats again, it will be worse No, all this showed was that yes, they are doing better in zvt, but they are not carried by their results in zvt nor are they even their best matchups. This is what I take away from the stats. However they are always up for personal interpretation I suppose.
Ok, ill concede.
But if you want the whining to stop. These so called 'not patchzergs' need to be doing some shit better.
You wont convince anybody with that small of a sample size, when people just watched vortex 1a his
whole army back and forth across the map to deal with each and every drop.
Its not just the stats that are making LR threads blow up. Its the fact we are watching the games, and can
see apparently inferior players winning.
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On August 20 2012 10:03 Anta wrote:
SortOf just finfished school around april/may an started gaming full time from there.
Stephano says ZvT is pretty balanced. Sure he owns Protoss but this is how he rolls, other zergs still have trouble (ask idra).
slivko and vortix are just fucking good.
T whining is just awful... we had so many tournaments with TvT semis and finals - it SUCKS!
bless god that time is over..
Stephano says TvZ is balanced cause talk about his own experience. His ZvP is so strong that he says Z is too good in ZvP. But his TvZ is a liitle bit worse.
Also DRG, MMA, MKP, ForGG and many other Terran said Z was too strong after the patch.
Idra always has trouble cause he is just bad.
And your argument about slivko and vortix is invalid, their opponents were fucking good too, and clearly favorite.
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On August 20 2012 10:05 docvoc wrote:
I'm sorry nkr, but if you look at the statistics, there is a HUGE increase in these specific zergs win rates compared to the decrease. Though sortof is an outlier on this, vortix is proof the patchzerg issue. Along with that, just because they won at this one tournament means little, but the fact that they were able to take out top korean terrans along with wins in the TSL3 proves something. Patch zergs are a thing, much like beta-terrans who 5 rax reapered or who 11/11 raxed. They will be patched out and end up just like Pwn and Trump, not being able to keep up with pack once their "imbalance" (and I use that word loosely) is fixed/found out. At least that is my take on it.
But these players were extremely good in the other matchups pre patch. What happened after the patch is that their ZvT came up to par with their other matchups. I feel that this shows that they are in fact very good players who with the new patch got a grip of a matchup which previously was their worst.
But yeah, I guess we just read into it differently =P
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On August 20 2012 09:38 Lonyo wrote:
None of which is an exact science due to the sample size issues and massive variation in the people they play, and skill level of those people
Playing a bunch of people in WCS Sweden isn't the same as playing a bunch of Koreans at IEM. While Sweden is good, they aren't (mostly) Korean level good.
This bears repeating. I'm not really sure having patchzergs is necessarily a bad thing given how slanted the matchup has been in the past, but you're missing this huge factor in the OP. Having players hover around 50% in lower leagues and then suddenly become competitive with GSL-caliber players should raise an eyebrow.
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Loved reading this. Interesting for sure.
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On August 20 2012 09:18 nkr wrote:
SortOf
After patch ZvT 9-13 (40,9%)
After patch ZvZ 17-15 (53,1%)
After patch ZvP 20-17 (54,1%)
VortiX
After patch ZvT 26-14 (65,0%)
After patch ZvZ 15-8 (65,2%)
After patch ZvP 23-14 (62,2%)
Post-patch sample sizes are too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. With only ~30 games, a minor winning/losing streak, or a favorable/unfavorable matchup would skew results too much.
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On August 20 2012 10:12 ssxsilver wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 09:38 Lonyo wrote:
None of which is an exact science due to the sample size issues and massive variation in the people they play, and skill level of those people
Playing a bunch of people in WCS Sweden isn't the same as playing a bunch of Koreans at IEM. While Sweden is good, they aren't (mostly) Korean level good. This bears repeating. I'm not really sure having patchzergs is necessarily a bad thing given how slanted the matchup has been in the past, but you're missing this huge factor in the OP. Having players hover around 50% in lower leagues and then suddenly become competitive with GSL-caliber players should raise an eyebrow.
This would be true, but only if it was limited to one matchup. If they went from 50% ZvT , 50% ZvZ to a 70% ZvT but still lingering around at a 50% ZvZ, then I would concede that there was something weird about it.
This is not the case with these players. Their ZvTs all got better, and a factor in that was no doubt the patch, but they still remained on a high level with their other matchups, which to me is a sign that they are in fact players who got damn good.
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An equally interesting way of making a study of this would be looking at how the top Terrans win ratio against Zergs changed with the patch.
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Coming off of two weekends of victories in a row, terrans are up in arms about zerg imbalance.
Should we make a list of the zergs who are allowed to beat terran?
MVP lost to naama at homestory cup.
MC lost to hasuobs this weekend.
Even Korean zergs, it would seem, can loose to European zergs.
IMBALANCE!
Take responsibility for your own shortcomings and recognize the greatness in others. Like, I dont know, Supernova after his match against Vortix:
"Congratulations to the winner. He played really well. I also wanted to thank my fans for cheering on me. I hope I showed exciting games @IEM. Fighting!
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On August 20 2012 10:20 Guanyin wrote:
An equally interesting way of making a study of this would be looking at how the top Terrans win ratio against Zergs changed with the patch.
Would be interesting yes, but it's a different discussion from the one in the OP
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On August 20 2012 10:25 m0ck wrote:
Coming off of two weekends of victories in a row, terrans are up in arms about zerg imbalance.
Should we make a list of the zergs who are allowed to beat terran?
MVP lost to naama at homestory cup.
MC lost to hasuobs this weekend.
Even Korean zergs, it would seem, can loose to European zergs.
IMBALANCE!
Take responsibility for your own shortcomings and recognize the greatness in others. Like, I dont know, Supernova after his match against Vortix:
"Congratulations to the winner. He played really well. I also wanted to thank my fans for cheering on me. I hope I showed exciting games @IEM. Fighting!
word!
good players deal with it
community likes to whine, sigh
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Having never heard the term patchzerg yet, I went into this thread expecting it to be retarded, left finding it very reasonable.
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On August 20 2012 10:30 Anta wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2012 10:25 m0ck wrote:
Coming off of two weekends of victories in a row, terrans are up in arms about zerg imbalance.
Should we make a list of the zergs who are allowed to beat terran?
MVP lost to naama at homestory cup.
MC lost to hasuobs this weekend.
Even Korean zergs, it would seem, can loose to European zergs.
IMBALANCE!
Take responsibility for your own shortcomings and recognize the greatness in others. Like, I dont know, Supernova after his match against Vortix:
"Congratulations to the winner. He played really well. I also wanted to thank my fans for cheering on me. I hope I showed exciting games @IEM. Fighting! word! good players deal with it community likes to whine, sigh
Read the thread on random players, you ain't seen nothing yet.
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EPT
