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On September 01 2018 15:32 Harem wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2018 15:11 Ilikestarcraft wrote:
If you look at just past results I would say that Last is a huge favorite but there are other factors that actually I think make it a lot more closer than it seems. The first is what others mentioned before that JD has a lot more experience playing offline matches and especially with series. Last has a lot of 2nd place finishes so I can definitely see nerves getting to him. This is probably going to be the biggest one but another big one is that JD played a protoss while Last had to play a zerg and Last's series actually went to the 6th game so JD has a lot more information to prepare for the final.
I agree with KamMoye in that its about like 55-45 in favor of Last. Look at Last's builds he used though. He didnt have to deviate much which lets save him a lot more for the finals.
Yea that does lessen the advantage for JD but at least we know JD will be better prepared against any 1/1/1 or 1/1/2 builds.
Though I do think JD has a better chance against Last if he goes 1/1/1 even if he didn't use it against Soulkey at all just because Last is more favored for standard games.
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Btw Jaedong will definitely throw in some early pools after noticing that Last isn't afraid to go 14 CC.
That being said, for being supposedly meh in offline tournaments, Last's defence against that 9 pool was insane.
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Man I never knew how bad hydras were at killing scvs. Feels like probes vanish in sight of hydras.
In some ways, it was a bit disappointing that SoulKey didn't get a nice comfortable late game match. edit: oh game 4 didnt end like I expected
Excited for the finals.
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On September 01 2018 20:01 KamMoye wrote:
I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you mind showing your work?
I perhaps overstated his results a bit, but I remember reading on team liquid quite often last year how Last was the best Terran after Flash, perhaps even #1 around the time of ASL Season 1, yet the only notable result was ASL Season 1 semi's after sweeping Flash 3-0. In the DanJJing starleague, which is online, he performed much better. The distinct example that I was thinking of was him being number 2 here, mostly based on online performance:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/brood-war/526649-power-rank-asl4-edition
But then he lost to Stork & sSak in the ro24 immediately. Then in Season 5 he was still the second best Terran, but lost to Where & Snow, again in the ro24. He has great series here and there, and I have to give credit to anyone who beats Flash 3-0, but he just struck me as someone who's playing better online than offline.
I question if this is actually true. For one, aren't we, especially outside this KSL, talking about a tiny sample size?
We are. It's more of a benefit of the doubt thing, because Jaedong has always been really good at them, and he's given no reason to believe he now started sucking at them in that tiny sample.
You're strawmanning me. If I said / thought that, I'd have Last as far > 55% to beat Jaedong. Obviously set and setting is a factor. But the most important factor is JD simply playing far better right now. People are putting far too much stock in JD's legend status. What he did before 2011 or 2012, skillwise, has little bearing on '18. He's not that player anymore. He is actually extremely high variance -- sometimea he plays very well, sometimes he makes huge blunders. And to act as if there's no pressure on him, too, is disingenuous.
I'm sorry, I didn't mean for it to come across like it was your argument, I just wanted to add in general that using online win rates may not be as reliable. You're also right that he has a ton of pressure on him, and that people have rose-tinted glasses on when judging him, which I probably also have. It's just that he's risen above this pressure so often, people are really hoping he cold do this one last time in '18.
His raw mechanical skill and strategies before 2011/2012 may not have much influence, but I do believe the fact that he's been on that highest level stage for over 10 years now, and the huge amount of finals he played in his life, help him in this particular situation. If you count Starcraft 2 and WCG Korea he's already been in 20 finals in premier tournaments. Meanwhile, Last's only premier final was the 10th Sonic Starleague which he lost to sSak. Experience matters.
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On August 31 2018 21:24 Navane wrote:
I kept wondering, before these games; what happened to the 1-1-1? Some said hero's 2.5 hatch countered it. Maybe only flash knows how to play it and he isnt featured in tourneys atm? I guess we're not done with it yet.
It doesnt always counter it, but that build has a stronger timing than normal 2 hatch.
Zerg knows having 6 mutalisks quick enough won't do much of damage and they need certain amount of drone count. Defending vulture run by + 1 wraith requires quite a lot of resource and wasting larvae for something else. Thats why zerg does 2.5 hatch to saturate bases + more larvae for something else.
In my opinion, 2.5 hatch 6+ additional 2 mutalisks + all in hydra bust(range and then speed) is super scary.
And btw, we had 2.5 hatch build order in the past vs 2 barracks stim bio into expansion(this was the standard in that time). We still called 3h muta b.o. but without speed ling upgrade. 3~4 sunkens max
1st edit + more notes:
you can still do 2 hatch muta b.o and spire + 3rd hatchery at same time. Hydra den + 1 sunken + 3 lings(1ling suicide at terran to scout) + overlords to cover from getting picked up lings and vulture run by. Also saturate bases like normal time, but only defending purpose for having fast spire(2 scourge and then mutalisks). And then do hydra bust. Like my first explanation at the above.
If you compare this 2 hatch muta hydra bust vs 2.5 hatch muta hydra bust, you will know 2.5 hatch b.o has more larvae, hydra preparation is faster, feel more safe from any harassments like 1 wraith, vulture run by or vulture drop.
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About the online results you forget one thing which is even taken directly from a quote from JD.
JD practices not to win, he practices to improve. That is a big difference. So JD often does subpar things because he is trying to get better. E.g. not taking the easy wins/keeping the opponent honest in online and practice games.
Now, whenever you see him playing BOx he ALWAYS does a varity of things that makes the opponent honest, like doing 9pools, runbys, strange drop timings, so that he sets himself up to being able to win the more standard games as his opponent learns he cannot cut every corner.
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TLADT24920 Posts
wow, I didn't think Last had much of a chance. His form is so inconsistent these days that it was hard to tell just how far he can take it. Also, is this 1-1-2 thing new? I haven't been following streams lately, but I do like this new variation. Makes it even easier to start building up air units then vessels when the terran switches to SK Terran. It's likely Last used 1-1-1 and variations because as Flash mentioned, the 5 rax +1 and likely any such builds are hard on the wrists and even Flash said he can use them a max of 3 times a day.
It's true that Soulkey could've played better/made better decisions like how he just ate that irradiate in that one game or tried that bust unsuccessfully on both Gladiator and Bluestorm, however, I think part of it was also due to Last having some insanely good defense like how he lost no units due to SK's pool first on Polaris Rhapsody. Credit where its due, that was a fun series to watch aside from several mistakes by either player. Also, keep in mind that Soulkey is considered a ZvT specialist so the win is solid imo.
I think Last vs JD is in Last's favour though as mentioned, 55/45. They both have pressure, but Jaedong also realizes that he won't get another like it. Last might be nervous, but I think if he plays solidly, he can beat Jaedong. Last is really overdue for a win after that SSL10 finals loss from years ago so hopefully he takes this and Jaedong takes ASL or vice-versa.
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On September 05 2018 03:43 BigFan wrote:
is this 1-1-2 thing new?
Previously it was 2 starports 3 wraiths expansion(kespa era light used it), but now is factory expansion 2 starports.
Factory expansion 2starport build does exist in TvT and i used it against mong in ASL season 4 daegu qualifiers final.
So it was never new. People reoptimized it from the old b.o with new latency(quicker response time) in remastered client.
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On September 05 2018 03:43 BigFan wrote:
It's likely Last used 1-1-1 and variations because as Flash mentioned, the 5 rax +1 and likely any such builds are hard on the wrists and even Flash said he can use them a max of 3 times a day.
Honestly, it's like these people live in another world. I can't even imagine playing in a way where if I play 3 games in a certain way, then my wrist would be so screwed up that I couldn't do it anymore. It's insane what these people do to even be able to get to this stage.
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On September 05 2018 16:06 abuse wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2018 03:43 BigFan wrote:
It's likely Last used 1-1-1 and variations because as Flash mentioned, the 5 rax +1 and likely any such builds are hard on the wrists and even Flash said he can use them a max of 3 times a day.
Honestly, it's like these people live in another world. I can't even imagine playing in a way where if I play 3 games in a certain way, then my wrist would be so screwed up that I couldn't do it anymore. It's insane what these people do to even be able to get to this stage.
It makes Brood War even more like a real sport. People are quick to point out the physical aspect in the discussion whether e-sports is a sport. The fact this incredibly powerful 5rax +1 style can't be played throughout an entire bo7 simply due to physical limitations, needing a suitable physique to pull it off, shows how far these players are pushing themselves physically.
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I expect Last to crumble if Jaedong starts playing well and makes him nervous. But Jaedong also is inconsistent. Hard to predict who wins, but the matchup favors Terran as Jaedong has mentioned in interviews before.
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EPT
