[KSL] SemiFinal B - Soulkey vs Last

On August 31 2018 17:11 Zealgoon wrote:
People are underestimating Last. The guy's a TvZ monster. This is going to be a very close series, and if Last wins he'd have a good chance to win the whole thing.

On August 31 2018 19:01 fLyiNgDroNe wrote:
can someone please remind me why Flash is not in this tourney?

On August 31 2018 19:07 De4ngus wrote:
Since I won't be able to watch the whole thing, where is the best place to get spoiler-free vods? If I go directly to the twitch page, the number of games is shown.

On August 31 2018 19:08 Zera wrote:


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/bw-tournaments/402419-small-vod-thread-20?page=80

Here

On August 31 2018 19:46 Motivate wrote:
that was so unnecessarily aggressive by soulkey

On August 31 2018 19:47 Zera wrote:
another 4-0 incoming?

On August 31 2018 20:12 Ota Solgryn wrote:
Wow. Could not call any of those fights. I dont understand Ultra vs M&M lol

On August 31 2018 20:12 Zera wrote:
were those +4 armor ultras already? They took no damage from marines at all

On August 31 2018 20:22 carebear91 wrote:
sooo i have a question, why is soulkey skipping defiler tech most of the games and teching up straight to ultras?

On August 31 2018 20:23 Zera wrote:

because he didn't have economy to go both defilers and ultras.

On August 31 2018 20:34 Malongo wrote:
I don´t like Tastosis this time. They really seemed clueless. Disregarding lurkers when T had no detection available and having a general feeling that Last was winning the whole game (he was not) shows they don´t understand the zergs mechanics that well.

On August 31 2018 23:05 Motivate wrote:
This 1-1-1 build seems to be extremely high risk for such a tiny advantage? I appreciate Last won but he looked so close to dying whenever he used that build and he never seemed to come out super far ahead. Seemed more like Soulkey was way too aggressive each time he faced that build and ended up throwing units away. Why couldn't Soulkey just play more standard against 1-1-1?

(Although I'm think Last would have died against Jaedong if he tried that build).

On September 01 2018 01:11 chrisolo wrote:


Because he went out in semifinals against arguably the second best terran in the world? Sure...

On September 01 2018 02:01 TornadoSteve wrote:
If there is one thing in which JD has a clear advantage over SK, its what to do in any given situation of the book. It looks like SK got caught off guard today, and didnt manage to handle what Last has prepared for every different maps. In fact, his decision making in some of those attacks and most of his timings were often poor, at least compared to jaedong's level.

In other words, another 4-0 incoming ? Unlikely, but certainly not impossible. =) go jd go

On September 01 2018 06:56 RAPiDCasting wrote:



IMAGINE that having any bearing on Jaedong playing in an offline finals.

On September 01 2018 10:28 KamMoye wrote:


Of course it does. Larger sample size is going to give more accurate results. Depending how far that goes back, it's pretty clear Last is, long term, the better player. Jaedong has been playing a lot better of late, but small sample size. Just a few weeks ago JD was looking washed if you look at his race wars performance.

I understand JD is the fan favorite, and I love JD myself and root for him. But I'd put Last as no worse than a 55/45 favorite. He completely dismantled Soulkey and is the,better player in 2018.

On September 01 2018 10:28 KamMoye wrote:


Of course it does. Larger sample size is going to give more accurate results. Depending how far that goes back, it's pretty clear Last is, long term, the better player. Jaedong has been playing a lot better of late, but small sample size. Just a few weeks ago JD was looking washed if you look at his race wars performance.

I understand JD is the fan favorite, and I love JD myself and root for him. But I'd put Last as no worse than a 55/45 favorite. He completely dismantled Soulkey and is the,better player in 2018.

On September 01 2018 06:56 RAPiDCasting wrote:



IMAGINE that having any bearing on Jaedong playing in an offline finals.

On September 01 2018 11:28 De4ngus wrote:

If it mattered that much, Last would have won a starleague by now. Offline matches are a completely different beast.

On September 01 2018 14:00 Motivate wrote:
Past record or not, can anyone else here imagine Jaedong tearing through that 1-1-1? It seems like such a showy build that spreads you way too thin.

On September 01 2018 12:25 RowdierBob wrote:

You’re kidding yourself if you think this doesn’t mean anything.

JD is a big underdog in this final.

On September 01 2018 15:11 Ilikestarcraft wrote:
If you look at just past results I would say that Last is a huge favorite but there are other factors that actually I think make it a lot more closer than it seems. The first is what others mentioned before that JD has a lot more experience playing offline matches and especially with series. Last has a lot of 2nd place finishes so I can definitely see nerves getting to him. This is probably going to be the biggest one but another big one is that JD played a protoss while Last had to play a zerg and Last's series actually went to the 6th game so JD has a lot more information to prepare for the final.

I agree with KamMoye in that its about like 55-45 in favor of Last.

On September 01 2018 13:30 KamMoye wrote:


Spoken like someone who doesn't understand variance.

On September 01 2018 16:26 Neemi wrote:

As someone that does, Last over a very long stretch of time performs below expectations given his winrate on sponbbang. He was crashing out left and right to far worse players while being a solid number 2 behind Flash.

Meanwhile JD far exceeded expectations in offline bo5+ since his return

Larger samples only give more accurate results if you assume that the skills of the players are a constant, which they are not. On top of that, assuming any game on any map is just like some online match at home is silly

On September 01 2018 17:31 Elroi wrote:
I hope Jaedong asks his old friend flash to help him prepare for the finals.

On September 01 2018 15:32 Harem wrote:

Look at Last's builds he used though. He didnt have to deviate much which lets save him a lot more for the finals.

On September 01 2018 20:01 KamMoye wrote:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you mind showing your work?

I question if this is actually true. For one, aren't we, especially outside this KSL, talking about a tiny sample size?

You're strawmanning me. If I said / thought that, I'd have Last as far > 55% to beat Jaedong. Obviously set and setting is a factor. But the most important factor is JD simply playing far better right now. People are putting far too much stock in JD's legend status. What he did before 2011 or 2012, skillwise, has little bearing on '18. He's not that player anymore. He is actually extremely high variance -- sometimea he plays very well, sometimes he makes huge blunders. And to act as if there's no pressure on him, too, is disingenuous.

On August 31 2018 21:24 Navane wrote:
I kept wondering, before these games; what happened to the 1-1-1? Some said hero's 2.5 hatch countered it. Maybe only flash knows how to play it and he isnt featured in tourneys atm? I guess we're not done with it yet.

On September 05 2018 03:43 BigFan wrote:
is this 1-1-2 thing new?

On September 05 2018 03:43 BigFan wrote:
It's likely Last used 1-1-1 and variations because as Flash mentioned, the 5 rax +1 and likely any such builds are hard on the wrists and even Flash said he can use them a max of 3 times a day.

On September 05 2018 16:06 abuse wrote:


Honestly, it's like these people live in another world. I can't even imagine playing in a way where if I play 3 games in a certain way, then my wrist would be so screwed up that I couldn't do it anymore. It's insane what these people do to even be able to get to this stage.