EPTIn other words, another 4-0 incoming ? Unlikely, but certainly not impossible. =) go jd go
[KSL] SemiFinal B - Soulkey vs Last - Page 8
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TornadoSteve
1103 Posts
In other words, another 4-0 incoming ? Unlikely, but certainly not impossible. =) go jd go | ||
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oxKnu
1240 Posts
Still, Last played really well in a couple of the games. | ||
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flyingrat
43 Posts
On September 01 2018 02:01 TornadoSteve wrote: If there is one thing in which JD has a clear advantage over SK, its what to do in any given situation of the book. It looks like SK got caught off guard today, and didnt manage to handle what Last has prepared for every different maps. In fact, his decision making in some of those attacks and most of his timings were often poor, at least compared to jaedong's level. In other words, another 4-0 incoming ? Unlikely, but certainly not impossible. =) go jd go JD has a 29% winning percentage vs Last over 144 games on sponbbang. Terrible match-up for him. | ||
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RAPiDCasting
Korea (South)594 Posts
On September 01 2018 05:02 flyingrat wrote: JD has a 29% winning percentage vs Last over 144 games on sponbbang. Terrible match-up for him. IMAGINE that having any bearing on Jaedong playing in an offline finals. | ||
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KamMoye
United States721 Posts
On September 01 2018 06:56 RAPiDCasting wrote: IMAGINE that having any bearing on Jaedong playing in an offline finals. Of course it does. Larger sample size is going to give more accurate results. Depending how far that goes back, it's pretty clear Last is, long term, the better player. Jaedong has been playing a lot better of late, but small sample size. Just a few weeks ago JD was looking washed if you look at his race wars performance. I understand JD is the fan favorite, and I love JD myself and root for him. But I'd put Last as no worse than a 55/45 favorite. He completely dismantled Soulkey and is the,better player in 2018. | ||
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De4ngus
United States6533 Posts
On September 01 2018 10:28 KamMoye wrote: Of course it does. Larger sample size is going to give more accurate results. Depending how far that goes back, it's pretty clear Last is, long term, the better player. Jaedong has been playing a lot better of late, but small sample size. Just a few weeks ago JD was looking washed if you look at his race wars performance. I understand JD is the fan favorite, and I love JD myself and root for him. But I'd put Last as no worse than a 55/45 favorite. He completely dismantled Soulkey and is the,better player in 2018. If it mattered that much, Last would have won a starleague by now. Offline matches are a completely different beast. | ||
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d(O.o)a
Canada5066 Posts
On September 01 2018 10:28 KamMoye wrote: Of course it does. Larger sample size is going to give more accurate results. Depending how far that goes back, it's pretty clear Last is, long term, the better player. Jaedong has been playing a lot better of late, but small sample size. Just a few weeks ago JD was looking washed if you look at his race wars performance. I understand JD is the fan favorite, and I love JD myself and root for him. But I'd put Last as no worse than a 55/45 favorite. He completely dismantled Soulkey and is the,better player in 2018. The thing about a bo7 though is it isn't about who can win more games of 100 it's about who can win 4 times. Not to mention this is Last's first finals, he said his nerves were getting to him in the last game against soulkey imagine how he's going to feel in the final. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13295 Posts
On September 01 2018 06:56 RAPiDCasting wrote: IMAGINE that having any bearing on Jaedong playing in an offline finals. You’re kidding yourself if you think this doesn’t mean anything. JD is a big underdog in this final. | ||
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KamMoye
United States721 Posts
On September 01 2018 11:28 De4ngus wrote: If it mattered that much, Last would have won a starleague by now. Offline matches are a completely different beast. Spoken like someone who doesn't understand variance. | ||
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Motivate
2860 Posts
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whaski
Finland577 Posts
On September 01 2018 14:00 Motivate wrote: Past record or not, can anyone else here imagine Jaedong tearing through that 1-1-1? It seems like such a showy build that spreads you way too thin. Well, it is the build that caused Last sweep Soulkey here and Danjjing Starleague. And Last has been at finals Post Kespa-era unlike Jaedong... | ||
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Ilikestarcraft
Korea (South)17732 Posts
I agree with KamMoye in that its about like 55-45 in favor of Last. | ||
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letian
Germany4221 Posts
On September 01 2018 12:25 RowdierBob wrote: You’re kidding yourself if you think this doesn’t mean anything. JD is a big underdog in this final. JD is never an underdog when it comes to a tournament later stages and anyone who is familiar with his career should know it. | ||
Harem
United States11393 Posts
On September 01 2018 15:11 Ilikestarcraft wrote: If you look at just past results I would say that Last is a huge favorite but there are other factors that actually I think make it a lot more closer than it seems. The first is what others mentioned before that JD has a lot more experience playing offline matches and especially with series. Last has a lot of 2nd place finishes so I can definitely see nerves getting to him. This is probably going to be the biggest one but another big one is that JD played a protoss while Last had to play a zerg and Last's series actually went to the 6th game so JD has a lot more information to prepare for the final. I agree with KamMoye in that its about like 55-45 in favor of Last. Look at Last's builds he used though. He didnt have to deviate much which lets save him a lot more for the finals. | ||
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Neemi
Netherlands656 Posts
On September 01 2018 13:30 KamMoye wrote: Spoken like someone who doesn't understand variance. As someone that does, Last over a very long stretch of time performs below expectations given his winrate on sponbbang. He was crashing out left and right to far worse players while being a solid number 2 behind Flash. It's been mentioned often how he doesn't play offline like he plays online. Meanwhile JD far exceeded expectations in offline bo5+ since his return, despite his unimpressive win rates. Stork was 3-0'd, he turned a series against an absolutely dominating Flash in a competitive 2-3, not to mention the 4-0 he just did to Rain. Larger samples only give more accurate results if you assume that the skills of the players are a constant, which they are not. On top of that, assuming any game on any map is just like some online match at home is silly. If we're talking a random bo1 online, Last is probably more likely to win. Now add offline, playing in front of a big crowd in favour of JD, the fact JD consistently performs above average in series, and that JD is famous for losing before sweeping his opponent, and I'm not so sure anymore because this sounds like the perfect recipe to get really nervous regardless of what happens. At least we have a good series to look forward to. | ||
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TornadoSteve
1103 Posts
After 2 unorthodox games vs Snow, i felt like JD was like OK, i've got nothing to lose by now, let's play normal games, and see what happens from there. He completed the reverse sweep. That led him playing 4 macro oriented games against Rain again, another sweep. Hes unbeaten in his last 7 games on stage, and like I stated, SK did lose against well prepared builds for every map and couldn't adapt properly to it. Well, guess what? JD will adapt perfectly to it, and even in his weakest match up, i feel like jaedong currently believe in himself more than ever since hes back and streaming. I wouldn't like to be the one whos playing against him for a BO7 offline right now, and i'm sure Last doesnt feel like the favorite going into this match. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
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KamMoye
United States721 Posts
On September 01 2018 16:26 Neemi wrote: As someone that does, Last over a very long stretch of time performs below expectations given his winrate on sponbbang. He was crashing out left and right to far worse players while being a solid number 2 behind Flash. I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you mind showing your work? Meanwhile JD far exceeded expectations in offline bo5+ since his return I question if this is actually true. For one, aren't we, especially outside this KSL, talking about a tiny sample size? Larger samples only give more accurate results if you assume that the skills of the players are a constant, which they are not. On top of that, assuming any game on any map is just like some online match at home is silly .You're strawmanning me. If I said / thought that, I'd have Last as far > 55% to beat Jaedong. Obviously set and setting is a factor. But the most important factor is JD simply playing far better right now. People are putting far too much stock in JD's legend status. What he did before 2011 or 2012, skillwise, has little bearing on '18. He's not that player anymore. He is actually extremely high variance -- sometimea he plays very well, sometimes he makes huge blunders. And to act as if there's no pressure on him, too, is disingenuous. | ||
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letian
Germany4221 Posts
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letian
Germany4221 Posts
On September 01 2018 17:31 Elroi wrote: I hope Jaedong asks his old friend flash to help him prepare for the finals. Don't think so. It will be Light as usual. | ||
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