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The problem with "Group of Death" in a D ranks league is that very often, players are simply not well-rounded, so a Protoss will think that Group X is the hardest and a Zerg will think it's Group Y.
From my experience, aeghrur is a monster in ZvP whereas I found Shuruken to be beatable, Arca(crema)'s standard PvP to be inferior to L_Master's, Nagisama's TvP to be like 1 letter rank lower than his TvZ. If you combine all the factors though, I still think Group E is the most difficult for a player to get out of:
1. Full race distribution (2 P, 1 T, 1 Z.)
2. Full vX diistribution (I like to think my vT is scary, L_Master's vZ looks better than mine at least and I'm sure RedAxis' is strong as well given his dominating record on ICCup and DRAKTL, Massssssss is C- so his vP must be on point, L_Master's is good, and mine won me a DRIT).
3. Overall skill level is 3 consistent D+-level players and a winning record C- player.
Case closed.
My predictions for the group I'm in:
sGs.BaBo < Massssssss+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +Long gone are the days when massssssss resorted to cheesing me two times in a row in DRIT and lost the series 0-3. My own PvZ is absolute ASS now and his skill seems to have increased greatly as well. I did lose our last encounter on ladder, but it was non-standard play on Destination, so I don't find it relevant. However, I still don't think I'll be able to beat him RedAxis < sGs.LMaster+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +Although I will admit I have not seen a lot of RedAxis games and I might be underestimating him in spite of his 90% or so winrate on ICCup and strong DRAKTL performance, I still feel that I can have confidence in L_Master to pull this one through, if not by purely greater skill then by the principle of P>T. Definitely the closest potential match in the group. > sGs.LMaster + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +L_Master said he is scared of him, and apparently he lost their most recent encounter. That's two things you don't want to have going against you when facing a positive C- player. I'm going to go based on reputation here: though L_Master's PvZ is better than mine, I don't think he will win either. > RedAxis + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +I entered a hyperbolic time chamber where I played 5-10 games of PvT against a C+ Terran on LAN at least every other day for about 4-5 months. Towards the end of this period, I was winning 40-60% of my games. I don't think any T stands a chance against me. Again, I could end up eating my words because my form is subpar at the moment, but if there is one thing I am confident in it is my PvT, because it unfortunately came at the expense of all my other MUs. > sGs.LMaster + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +It is with deep regret that I knock out the organizer and a great player. This is by no means a certainty; I have definitely lost to him before. However, our record leans in my favor, and L_Master seems to be puzzled by my playstyle. Even if he is aware of my sneaky tricks, I think I can still pull a fast one on him and take the game.
sGs.BaBo 2-1L_Master 1-2RedAxis 0-2
One thing is clear, 2 of the strongest players in the tournament will be knocked out in this group, and that's sad T-T;
PS. Why does Massssssss have a pretty purple border?! I'm Jealous.
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On January 18 2013 00:42 Jealous wrote:The problem with "Group of Death" in a D ranks league is that very often, players are simply not well-rounded, so a Protoss will think that Group X is the hardest and a Zerg will think it's Group Y. From my experience, aeghrur is a monster in ZvP whereas I found Shuruken to be beatable, Arca(crema)'s standard PvP to be inferior to L_Master's, Nagisama's TvP to be like 1 letter rank lower than his TvZ. If you combine all the factors though, I still think Group E is the most difficult for a player to get out of: 1. Full race distribution (2 P, 1 T, 1 Z.) 2. Full vX diistribution (I like to think my vT is scary, L_Master's vZ looks better than mine at least and I'm sure RedAxis' is strong as well given his dominating record on ICCup and DRAKTL, Massssssss is C- so his vP must be on point, L_Master's is good, and mine won me a DRIT). 3. Overall skill level is 3 consistent D+-level players and a winning record C- player. Case closed. My predictions for the group I'm in: sGs.BaBo < Massssssss+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +Long gone are the days when massssssss resorted to cheesing me two times in a row in DRIT and lost the series 0-3. My own PvZ is absolute ASS now and his skill seems to have increased greatly as well. I did lose our last encounter on ladder, but it was non-standard play on Destination, so I don't find it relevant. However, I still don't think I'll be able to beat him RedAxis < L_Master+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +Although I will admit I have not seen a lot of RedAxis games and I might be underestimating him in spite of his 90% or so winrate on ICCup and strong DRAKTL performance, I still feel that I can have confidence in L_Master to pull this one through, if not by purely greater skill then by the principle of P>T. Definitely the closest potential match in the group. > L_Master + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +L_Master said he is scared of him, and apparently he lost their most recent encounter. That's two things you don't want to have going against you when facing a positive C- player. I'm going to go based on reputation here: though L_Master's PvZ is better than mine, I don't think he will win either. > RedAxis + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +I entered a hyperbolic time chamber where I played 5-10 games of PvT against a C+ Terran on LAN at least every other day for about 4-5 months. Towards the end of this period, I was winning 40-60% of my games. I don't think any T stands a chance against me. Again, I could end up eating my words because my form is subpar at the moment, but if there is one thing I am confident in it is my PvT, because it unfortunately came at the expense of all my other MUs. > sGs.LMaster + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +It is with deep regret that I knock out the organizer and a great player. This is by no means a certainty; I have definitely lost to him before. However, our record leans in my favor, and L_Master seems to be puzzled by my playstyle. Even if he is aware of my sneaky tricks, I think I can still pull a fast one on him and take the game.
sGs.BaBo 2-1L_Master 1-2RedAxis 0-2One thing is clear, 2 of the strongest players in the tournament will be knocked out in this group, and that's sad T-T; PS. Why does Massssssss have a pretty purple border?! I'm Jealous.
Haha, nice pun there at the end!
Please predict group F too ^^ (ofcourse I'll 2-0)
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Canada4481 Posts
On January 18 2013 00:58 KaiGreene wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 00:42 Jealous wrote:The problem with "Group of Death" in a D ranks league is that very often, players are simply not well-rounded, so a Protoss will think that Group X is the hardest and a Zerg will think it's Group Y. From my experience, aeghrur is a monster in ZvP whereas I found Shuruken to be beatable, Arca(crema)'s standard PvP to be inferior to L_Master's, Nagisama's TvP to be like 1 letter rank lower than his TvZ. If you combine all the factors though, I still think Group E is the most difficult for a player to get out of: 1. Full race distribution (2 P, 1 T, 1 Z.) 2. Full vX diistribution (I like to think my vT is scary, L_Master's vZ looks better than mine at least and I'm sure RedAxis' is strong as well given his dominating record on ICCup and DRAKTL, Massssssss is C- so his vP must be on point, L_Master's is good, and mine won me a DRIT). 3. Overall skill level is 3 consistent D+-level players and a winning record C- player. Case closed. My predictions for the group I'm in: sGs.BaBo < Massssssss+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +Long gone are the days when massssssss resorted to cheesing me two times in a row in DRIT and lost the series 0-3. My own PvZ is absolute ASS now and his skill seems to have increased greatly as well. I did lose our last encounter on ladder, but it was non-standard play on Destination, so I don't find it relevant. However, I still don't think I'll be able to beat him RedAxis < L_Master+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +Although I will admit I have not seen a lot of RedAxis games and I might be underestimating him in spite of his 90% or so winrate on ICCup and strong DRAKTL performance, I still feel that I can have confidence in L_Master to pull this one through, if not by purely greater skill then by the principle of P>T. Definitely the closest potential match in the group. > L_Master + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +L_Master said he is scared of him, and apparently he lost their most recent encounter. That's two things you don't want to have going against you when facing a positive C- player. I'm going to go based on reputation here: though L_Master's PvZ is better than mine, I don't think he will win either. > RedAxis + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +I entered a hyperbolic time chamber where I played 5-10 games of PvT against a C+ Terran on LAN at least every other day for about 4-5 months. Towards the end of this period, I was winning 40-60% of my games. I don't think any T stands a chance against me. Again, I could end up eating my words because my form is subpar at the moment, but if there is one thing I am confident in it is my PvT, because it unfortunately came at the expense of all my other MUs. > sGs.LMaster + Show Spoiler [Reasoning] +It is with deep regret that I knock out the organizer and a great player. This is by no means a certainty; I have definitely lost to him before. However, our record leans in my favor, and L_Master seems to be puzzled by my playstyle. Even if he is aware of my sneaky tricks, I think I can still pull a fast one on him and take the game.
sGs.BaBo 2-1L_Master 1-2RedAxis 0-2One thing is clear, 2 of the strongest players in the tournament will be knocked out in this group, and that's sad T-T; PS. Why does Massssssss have a pretty purple border?! I'm Jealous. Haha, nice pun there at the end! Please predict group F too ^^ (ofcourse I'll 2-0)
Group F
shuruken 2-0
kaigreene 2-1
nagisama 1-2
cptelem 0-2
edit: also, liquipedia's been updated.
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On January 18 2013 01:07 Nagisama wrote:
Group F
shuruken 2-0
nagisama 2-1
kaigreene 1-2
cptelem 0-2
edit: also, liquipedia's been updated.
Fixed that for you. Optimism ^_^
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Canada8033 Posts
On January 17 2013 18:38 thezanursic wrote:Gonna sweep my group 3-0! Watch out Zwardo, Prophecy and Animus! + Show Spoiler +Haven't played for 2 weeks though so this is my excuse if I don't :D, but otherwise:
I will crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and hear the lamentation of their women!
You're horribly mistaken.
+ Show Spoiler +I can personally attest to the fact that prophecy does not have a woman.
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Group E just goes to show that L_Master hates me and doesn't want me to win anything. >:[
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On January 17 2013 23:29 Nagisama wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2013 22:37 t0ssboy wrote:
^ Im pretty sure,that a there were group PP's in last DRIT tours. Maybe, if you can get the other 3 members in your group to agree to the postpone as well. However, they're not/shouldn't be obligated to agree to a postpone.
Basically this. If everyone else agreed then I supposed it could be allowed.
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Terrans need to step it up. No person in the drawing seems very strong vT, save for a few protosses. Oh and moe-Ghrur.
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On January 18 2013 03:49 SynC[gm] wrote:
Group E just goes to show that L_Master hates me and doesn't want me to win anything. >:[
Everyone forgets I'm this group too 
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On January 18 2013 03:57 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 03:49 SynC[gm] wrote:
Group E just goes to show that L_Master hates me and doesn't want me to win anything. >:[ Everyone forgets I'm this group too
You put 4 people including yourself in a very rough situation --;
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How did i not get in this? Wasnt i one of the first to sign up o.O
Also, HOLY PROTOSS BATMAN.
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On January 18 2013 05:04 arb wrote:
How did i not get in this? Wasnt i one of the first to sign up o.O
Also, HOLY PROTOSS BATMAN.
Yea, sorry that is correct. 9heart was the next last to show up so his spot belongs to you in group D.
9heart, obviously I'd still recommend showing up as there will undoubtedly be no shows.
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Hi,
is this the ICCUP profile of the Sentenal of my group?
ICCUP Sentenal
Shouldnt be it, but i cant find another one.
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I am not complaining anymore, becaus it is useless. Just wanted to know who my opponent is. I wont play vs you anyway. I will lose my first zvz and you will walk trough 2-0. No problem for me.
+ Show Spoiler +But just for my information, how is a 21-10 statistic touching c- and falling back, like Jealous described it?
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Canada4481 Posts
On January 18 2013 08:39 Kalk wrote:I am not complaining anymore, becaus it is useless. Just wanted to know who my opponent is. I wont play vs you anyway. I will lose my first zvz and you will walk trough 2-0. No problem for me. + Show Spoiler +But just for my information, how is a 21-10 statistic touching c- and falling back, like Jealous described it?
Because if you play enough games on 1 map, vs 1 race, with one specific build, you can reach C- easily.
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On January 18 2013 08:46 Nagisama wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 08:39 Kalk wrote:I am not complaining anymore, becaus it is useless. Just wanted to know who my opponent is. I wont play vs you anyway. I will lose my first zvz and you will walk trough 2-0. No problem for me. + Show Spoiler +But just for my information, how is a 21-10 statistic touching c- and falling back, like Jealous described it? Because if you play enough games on 1 map, vs 1 race, with one specific build, you can reach C- easily.
9/10gate is a pretty good build
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He went 21-10 and ended up with 3063 points, only 63 points above the 3000 point limit. There's a pretty big overall skill between the average C- player to the average D+ player, and the fact that he didn't play any C- player doesn't show if he's really at the C- level.
Plus, despite being C-, he was shown to be beatable, losing twice in the most recent D-rank All-Kill Teamleagues.
He's also entered the last two D-rank Individual Tournaments, and has yet to win one.
If anything, the person you should be worrying about most in the group is Arca(Crema), who's made it to the finals in DRIT Season 2.
Individual tournaments with multiple sets are a lot different than games in Teamleague as well. You're going into the game, knowing if you lose, you're one step closer to being eliminated, which I'm pretty sure everyone wants to avoid. There's also mental factors that play into these games, so there's variables that play out, and you should use that to your advantage, instead of worrying about the ranking someone barely achieved a season before.
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On January 18 2013 08:39 Kalk wrote:I am not complaining anymore, becaus it is useless. Just wanted to know who my opponent is. I wont play vs you anyway. I will lose my first zvz and you will walk trough 2-0. No problem for me. + Show Spoiler +But just for my information, how is a 21-10 statistic touching c- and falling back, like Jealous described it?
21-10 is 66% winrate vs D/D+ players, which of course could potentially put him in the top tier of D+ players. People who present this sort of winrate, in my experience, rarely have above 50% winrate vs. C- players, in fact it is usually lower. However, the fact that he chose to stop at 3063 limits our ability to truly gauge his skill level, as he is unlikely to have played any games vs. C- players, which most likely WOULD push him into the category I described. Let's also look at other examples:
A. 2 seasons ago, I went 14-0 in the last 2 weeks of ladder, which would make people like you go "WOAH! He's way too good for this league." However, the next season, I earned 28-26 with a high D+. This is more consistent with what people would expect from a DR participant. But, the fact is that I went on an almost equally strong streak, getting to somewhere similar or maybe even better than Sentenal's 21-10. After that, playing against C- and other strong D+ players made me go ~7-16, resulting in a final W/L of 28-26, which is statistically a better representation of my performance due to a greater number of games played. Of course, there is no telling whether Sentenal would have kept climbing up, or if he would fall back down, but based on my experience I think it is far more likely for a player to fall back down.
B. Although many have noted Massssssss's C-, that was also 2 seasons ago, also with a winning record. If you look at his current record, it is something like 38-40 D+ (this is going from memory, ICCup is down right now). The same exact phenomenon - more games leads players to have a less dominant appearance, because a greater sample size allows for a greater accuracy.
Most importantly. you are forgetting the key point of my post: If the administration deems the skill level of an opponent to not be too great for the tournament (usually based on replays, past tournaments, etc.), then you have to take it on good faith that their skill is appropriate. What I suggest you do is instead of using past results that have no matchlist (and therefore no room to analyze whether he was stomping D- players or beating legitimate C-/D+ level players to achieve his rank), you can do the following:
Request that Sentenal present some 10+ minute replays, analyze them, and present a reasonable argument for why he shouldn't be in the league. This was done in prior tournaments.
Of course, I don't think Sentenal would be obligated to do so, but I also don't think he would say "no."
Also, Sentenal is cheesy as fuuuuuuuuck xD
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On January 18 2013 09:26 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 08:39 Kalk wrote:I am not complaining anymore, becaus it is useless. Just wanted to know who my opponent is. I wont play vs you anyway. I will lose my first zvz and you will walk trough 2-0. No problem for me. + Show Spoiler +But just for my information, how is a 21-10 statistic touching c- and falling back, like Jealous described it? 21-10 is 66% winrate vs D/D+ players, which of course could potentially put him in the top tier of D+ players. People who present this sort of winrate, in my experience, rarely have above 50% winrate vs. C- players, in fact it is usually lower. However, the fact that he chose to stop at 3063 limits our ability to truly gauge his skill level, as he is unlikely to have played any games vs. C- players, which most likely WOULD push him into the category I described. Let's also look at other examples: A. 2 seasons ago, I went 14-0 in the last 2 weeks of ladder, which would make people like you go "WOAH! He's way too good for this league." However, the next season, I earned 28-26 with a high D+. This is more consistent with what people would expect from a DR participant. But, the fact is that I went on an almost equally strong streak, getting to somewhere similar or maybe even better than Sentenal's 21-10. After that, playing against C- and other strong D+ players made me go ~7-16, resulting in a final W/L of 28-26, which is statistically a better representation of my performance due to a greater number of games played. Of course, there is no telling whether Sentenal would have kept climbing up, or if he would fall back down, but based on my experience I think it is far more likely for a player to fall back down. B. Although many have noted Massssssss's C-, that was also 2 seasons ago, also with a winning record. If you look at his current record, it is something like 38-40 D+ (this is going from memory, ICCup is down right now). The same exact phenomenon - more games leads players to have a less dominant appearance, because a greater sample size allows for a greater accuracy. Most importantly. you are forgetting the key point of my post: If the administration deems the skill level of an opponent to not be too great for the tournament (usually based on replays, past tournaments, etc.), then you have to take it on good faith that their skill is appropriate. What I suggest you do is instead of using past results that have no matchlist (and therefore no room to analyze whether he was stomping D- players or beating legitimate C-/D+ level players to achieve his rank), you can do the following: Request that Sentenal present some 10+ minute replays, analyze them, and present a reasonable argument for why he shouldn't be in the league. This was done in prior tournaments. Of course, I don't think Sentenal would be obligated to do so, but I also don't think he would say "no." Also, Sentenal is cheesy as fuuuuuuuuck xD
This post also goes to show how imba BaBo is and how he should simply make no probes in his Group E games.
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EPT
