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The State of the Swarm Report - Page 3

Forum Index > BW General
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infinity2k9
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United Kingdom2397 Posts
January 13 2009 16:47 GMT
#41
You don't need to take things so literally..I don't mean exactly 100% perfect but builds that cannot really be improved anymore. And that its clear that when Z makes minor mistakes they get run over immediately with no comeback while P especially can take setbacks and still win.
PH
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States6173 Posts
January 13 2009 16:49 GMT
#42
On January 13 2009 18:11 Kuja900 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2009 18:09 Choros wrote:
In my observation the Zerg winrate has been in decline ever since the fall of savior. Protosses were now using much more effective builds (thanks revolutionist) and Terrans were becoming increasingly proficient against the traditional savior 3 hatch muta. I recall an interview from a while back in which savior said that Terrans were slowly getting harder and harder to beat.

What we have seen in my opinion is the other races taking the initiative away from Zerg forcing them to be the ones struggling to adapt and since then it has been once thing after another the most recent being ofcourse the Fantasy build but also the +1 Zelot Archon push which is tailored to counter the fast spire/den build which was pioneered by Jaedong most particually in the final against stork, which is effective against Cosair heavy play that dominated the period.


Ok its just important to say i really dont think Jaedong pioneered anything, personally i find him extremely unoriginal but he just does it better than almost anyone else.

Arguably, he introduced effective queens in ZvT...

Though other than that, I agree with you completely. However, he does what he does in such a dominating and convincing style and way, he cannot be ignored.
Hello
tomatriedes
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
New Zealand5356 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-13 16:58:24
January 13 2009 16:57 GMT
#43
On January 13 2009 16:45 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2009 16:35 Kwark wrote:
I still believe it's the ridiculous TvZ winrate which is hurting them most. The dragons are some of the best players in the world right now but they're not unbeatable. Good zergs, and I mean julyish not just Jaedong, can take games off them. The problem is that no zergs but Jaedong survive the terran favoured maps right now because every half decent terran can beat all but the best zerg.

But sick writeup anyway. The stats were new to me and very interesting. Learned a lot.
Thanks man.


every zerg player except jaedong is making horrific newbie mistakes

effort is playing a shitload better on average than yarnc or luxury, despite the fact that he is nowhere near as good as those two play sometimes

it's not the maps, the current top zergs are fucking terrible


No. The truth is ZvT is a lot harder than TvZ. It always has been and always will be. Terrans can sit in their base and build turrets and move their MnM around and still have their base visible for macroing. It's a lot easier than to trying to micro mutalisks around while macroing on the other side of the map. One slip and all your mutas go bye-bye and you're basically fucked. TvZ is so much more forgiving of mistakes.

I was just watching a game skyhigh vs a samsung zerg where skyhigh tried a sunken break and lost all his MnM. Then he left some MnM out on the middle of the map, they got surrounded by mutaling and he lost all of them. After all that rapage he was still able to go on and easily win the game. Now, admittedly the zerg made a bad mistake by not getting units through a nydus canal in time and lost an expansion but the point is that the terran get away with losing big groups of units early in the game while almost any major mistake by a zerg means a big chance of a loss.

No terran player will admit this of course. It's funny when you look at a map like blue storm (one of the few where zerg could get more wins) nobody had a problem with labeling it imbalanced. But whenever terrans are owning on a map (like destination TvZ: 25-11 ,69.4%) it's never the map it's always just that 'zerg are playing badly'.
Jaksiel
Profile Joined November 2008
United States4130 Posts
January 13 2009 17:13 GMT
#44
On January 14 2009 00:49 lgdDante wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2009 00:14 Jaksiel wrote:
Zero is frustratingly inconsistent, but I too have hope that he can put it together.

Live for the swarm!

I think that every day there's more and more evidence that zero was just overachieving the first half of this round, rather than underachieving these last 3-4 weeks.


Hence...inconsistent. I'm not really sure what you're arguing against.
Zero fighting.
number1gog
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1081 Posts
January 13 2009 17:55 GMT
#45
On January 14 2009 01:49 PH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2009 18:11 Kuja900 wrote:
On January 13 2009 18:09 Choros wrote:
In my observation the Zerg winrate has been in decline ever since the fall of savior. Protosses were now using much more effective builds (thanks revolutionist) and Terrans were becoming increasingly proficient against the traditional savior 3 hatch muta. I recall an interview from a while back in which savior said that Terrans were slowly getting harder and harder to beat.

What we have seen in my opinion is the other races taking the initiative away from Zerg forcing them to be the ones struggling to adapt and since then it has been once thing after another the most recent being ofcourse the Fantasy build but also the +1 Zelot Archon push which is tailored to counter the fast spire/den build which was pioneered by Jaedong most particually in the final against stork, which is effective against Cosair heavy play that dominated the period.


Ok its just important to say i really dont think Jaedong pioneered anything, personally i find him extremely unoriginal but he just does it better than almost anyone else.

Arguably, he introduced effective queens in ZvT...

Though other than that, I agree with you completely. However, he does what he does in such a dominating and convincing style and way, he cannot be ignored.


Arguably, Zergs already knew what Queen's could do, just weren't capable of the micro.

Jaedong himself has talked about how hard it is to micro a full army + defilers + queens. I think he's the only person with an APM capable of doing it.
5sz6sz7sz1a2a3a4a kwanrollllllled
Pioneer
Profile Joined December 2008
994 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-13 18:01:07
January 13 2009 17:56 GMT
#46
On January 13 2009 19:48 Letmelose wrote:
As of now,

1) Zergs can't win against terrans. The 3 hatchery build has been countered. There is no "stable" build that a zerg can use, and the maps aren't exactly helping zergs out. Every other match-up has a "standard build" like forge expansion or 1 factory expansion, but zergs have NO builds in ZvT that gives them a managable start.
2) Terrans not only countered the "standard zerg play", but countered it in numerous ways each requiring a different response from the zergs. It's like protosses before Nal Ra popularized FE, completely clueless with the numerous cards that zergs have. Well, looking at the statitistics it has become even worse than that.
3) Zergs can't even win properly against protoss now that the match-up has become pretty much balanced with the new tricks protoss has up their sleaves and the maps which make sure that these skills can be used (save for a few maps which protoss complain non-stop about).
4) Add the fact that 2v2 was played until quite recently, most zergs ended up practicing their zergling and mutalisk/scourge control only (the only things that matter in 2v2 and ZvZ, which happened to be the only games zergs could shine in).
5) Just like the recent wave of protoss friendly maps ended up producing fine protoss players unafraid of the zerg and terrans, the recent trend of zerg being crapped on has resulted in, surprise surprise, shortage of zerg talent compared to the other races.

Sure zergs still have Jaedong, the only zerg who is consistently a force in the individual leagues and the proleague regardless of the maps or trends, but that's more of a testament to Jaedong than anything else. His out of the world mechanics is the only thing that's allowing him to keep up with the cream of the crop right now. His godly mechanics only comes into full light in a match-up with no racial imbalance, ZvZ. The other aspects of his game are top notch also, but alas is not enough to turn the tides in the ever hopeless fight against terrans.

To those who say zergs don't have enough "creativity", let's see how well the other races deal with things when the times get rough. Bisu blamed his OSL exit on the maps saying he couldn't FE on the Tears of the Moon and that other builds were useless against the zergs.
Zergs have basically come up every trick in the book from no lurker into ultra-ling play, 2 hatch mutalisks and going lurkers first, only to find out NONE of these gave them a steady winning rate against terrans. Yet everyone seems to be content on saying "I know things are a little rough, but try queens". No changes in the maps, well, except fixing "undefendable" cliffs against mutalisk harass perhaps.

Zerg's don't adapt, maps aren't as bad for Zerg's as they're made out to be, Andromeda is still consistantly used and that massively favors Z vs P, Destination is gradually becoming a Zerg dominated map ZvP, Chupung isn't that terrible for Zerg and as stated earlier the Zerg's don't need a special build or anything they need to work on their mid-game and late game mechanics. I mean go watch FBH vs Zero on Destination, there was no map imbalance there, no race imbalance, nothing except Zero failing to macro and micro which is becoming a common trend for all Zerg's ZvT.

And to the guy that mentioned blue storm, during the emergence of Jaedong's muta micro and other Zerg's stepped up their micro the natural on the original Blue Storm was a haven for them, and it's not that TvZ is more forgiving (it is slightly but a good zerg should be able to capitalize on the mistakes of his opponent) it's that Terrans, for years, have had excellent macro/micro. Terran doesn't lend itself to being a creative race and it doesn't reward itself for creativity like Protoss/and Zerg does but having excellent mechanics with Terran rewards it much more than it does with Protoss and Zerg.

Also, going 2 hatch variation each ZvT isn't exactly helping Zerg and that build is accountable for many of the losses that Zerg has taken in the past 6 months.
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-13 18:06:32
January 13 2009 18:05 GMT
#47
These stupid imbalance judgments are overwhelming.

If you say ZvT is imbalanced, there is exactly one person to blame (well two if you consider ancient BW). No, it's not Blizzard, and no, it's not the mapmakers.

iloveoov

He alone made Terran this good. The early 2 rax acad cc. The updated 14cc and 1 rax cc. The mech builds. All are because of him. It is these builds that make T>Z, not anything else. In the two years of Zerg glory, Savior held everything together with an equal skill in improving the Zerg side of the matchup. But he never created a more effective setup against 1 rax cc and instead kept on winning for himself due to his tactics.

So why hasn't Zerg held their own? Because Jaedong is not Savior. JD is an incredible player, full of passion, and has arguably the best set of mechanics in history. But aside from the very recent trend of Queens, he has done nothing to change ZvT, so Zergs keep playing the same way they did over 2 years ago while Terrans have been continually updating their builds. 2 hatch muta is a bandaid fix and has already lost its supremacy thanks to oov's mech. With this in mind, it is only logical that T is winning so much over Z and any map where Z is equal or better against T is absurdly imbalanced (i,e Medusa).

But anyway there are a whole other set of reasons why Zergs are sucking: they've forgotten a lot of what Savior taught them. I'll be expanding on some of these points in an upcoming article.

About Zero: his ZvT is REALLY good. Up until Jaedong started with queens I considered it better than JD himself (temporarily of course since JD was semi-slumping). His games against Flash and Sea showed the first signs of a Zerg with the intelligence level of Savior, and up until he made the Yellowish move to all-in FBH whe he had the game won he would have trumped 3 of the best curret TvZers in decisive fashion. But sadly he lacks in every other matchup and got stuck in the worst group possible in the MSL (no terrans + Bisu). When/if he will break out remains to be seen, but his ZvT is for real.
Liquipedia
DaasEuGen
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Germany35 Posts
January 13 2009 18:10 GMT
#48
On January 14 2009 01:23 infinity2k9 wrote:
Instead of just 'stop complaining' how about reading Letmelose's actual technical posts on the matter and discussing it. Do people think its still possible for an evolution in play? I mean they must be practicing many builds, but is it possible we have reached the point where T/P have found the perfect way to play against Z, and the only way they lose is by mistakes? If its true maybe we'll see matters get even worse as more T/P reach the skill level to pull the builds off perfectly. It gives me hope even the top T/P players still drop a few games, but even in those games to me it still seems like Z is on the brink on losing.


you know what this reminds me off? savior-era. everyone said "pvz is so imba", there where even people who build special maps to test, if starcraft could be patched so that pvz was no longer imba. and the reason they did this was, because starcraft was played out, there would not be any revolution because after 8 years the perfect way to play zvp has been found.
i think starcraft is a game, that evolves all the time and will never stop to evolve. it is so complex, there will never be a way to play it perfectly, not even close (look at "normal" sports like high jump. its complexity, compared to starcraft, is a joke and still the perfect technique was developed 60 years after the first olympic games). as during the time of savior protoss had a crisis, now zerg has a crisis. we will get over it, the game evolves and the overmind will succed once again if we wait long enough
JoeSaddles
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States344 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-13 18:20:03
January 13 2009 18:19 GMT
#49
I like the current state of the swarm. Protoss innovation is on the rise lately it seems.. I like what im seeing so far a LOT, and obviously maps do have something to do with it as well some are really difficult for certain matchups.
http://www.iccup.com/starcraft/gamingprofile/SaddleS.html
raga4ka
Profile Joined February 2008
Bulgaria5679 Posts
January 13 2009 18:26 GMT
#50
On January 14 2009 01:47 infinity2k9 wrote:
You don't need to take things so literally..I don't mean exactly 100% perfect but builds that cannot really be improved anymore. And that its clear that when Z makes minor mistakes they get run over immediately with no comeback while P especially can take setbacks and still win.


Watch Yellow[Arnc] vs Kal and Yellow[Arnc] vs Sea . The guy started out horrible , but continued to rape them after that .
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10939 Posts
January 13 2009 18:38 GMT
#51
I would say that Terran has it easyer against Zerg and that Zerg has in both matchups has more *moments* than the enemy to completly throw the game. But it's not as if Terran and Toss don't have such moments at all.

Just wait... If this topic in 2010 is still hot, then we can whine :p
zer0das
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States8519 Posts
January 13 2009 18:46 GMT
#52
The current Zerg situation reminds me a lot of Protoss a year a half ago or so. Bisu was the only Protoss that was really good at PvZ, and then... Free, kind of. After that the skill level fell off a cliff, and no one was really worth discussing.

Then Kal came out of nowhere, Stork got better at the matchup (Savior's decline also helped), Jangbi finally found some nerves, and Best hit the ground running. Suddenly just being better than the mediocre Protoss isn't good enough, and Zergs aren't looking so good.
d_so
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Korea (South)3262 Posts
January 13 2009 18:52 GMT
#53
really great post.

i like by.hero a lot zvp.

jaedong/july for zvt.

jaedong for zvz

jaedong for all matchups really: this guy's such a god
manner
zulu_nation8
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
China26351 Posts
January 13 2009 18:55 GMT
#54
good article but I have zero faith in (Z)ZerO
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10939 Posts
January 13 2009 18:56 GMT
#55
On January 14 2009 03:52 d_so wrote:
jaedong/july for zvt.



.... Has July won anything recently except against FBH?
fanatacist
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
10319 Posts
January 13 2009 18:59 GMT
#56
Great write-up, a lot of effort went into this, I can tell o: Was a very interesting read, read the whole thing. 5/5.
Peace~
d_so
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Korea (South)3262 Posts
January 13 2009 19:11 GMT
#57
On January 14 2009 03:56 Velr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2009 03:52 d_so wrote:
jaedong/july for zvt.



.... Has July won anything recently except against FBH?


YO BUT HIS QUEEN ALMOST TOOK THAT CC???????????

neways point taken smart guy
manner
Misrah
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States1695 Posts
January 13 2009 19:30 GMT
#58
Thanks for the great article. Great read, and thanks for the time.

As for zerg: Creativity is not an option. It just cannot happen. Zerg's don't have many units from which to play with. The only way zergs could "get creative" is something along the lines of how zergs economy is developed, and managed, well that is what i think at least.

Don't belive me about the unit numbers? take a look:
+ Show Spoiler +
We will start with zerg:

Drone, Overlord, Zergling, Hydralisk, Lurker, Mutalisk, Scourge, Guardian, Devourer, Defiler, Queen, Ultralisk (I am not going to count Infested terrans, or broodlings- because you never have a chance to use them.)

So in total: 12 (however i am being generous here, counting Devourers and Queens. Frankly you just don't see these units consistently in games.)

Now Terran:

SCV, Marine, Firebat, Ghost, Medic, Vulture, Goliath, Tank, Battle Cruiser, Science Vessel, Wraith, Drop ship, Valkyrie.

In total: 13 (Not a large gap, however notice how terran units are more specialized, and can be used for a specific task. Carrying that over to zerg play, the specialization just isn't there. Zergling and Hydra are cannon fodder essentially, and have a very broad use.)

Now Protoss:

Probe, Zealot, Dragoon, High Templar, Dark Templar, Archon, Dark Archon, Reaver, Corsair, Scout, Carrier, observer, Shuddle, Arbiter.

In total: 14
However Dark Archons and Scout are certainly not used on a regular basis. But once again, notice how the protoss units have more specialized roles than zergs.

I believe that that specialization that Terran and Protoss players enjoy is what is giving them the edge in the current metagame. Zerg has to simply juggle the same "one size fits all" Type of unit.

Zerg has only 1 ground to air, and 1 air to ground (minus guardians- but hey those are used sparingly, and at least not until late game.)
A thread vaguely bashing SC2? SWARM ON, LOW POST COUNT BRETHREN! DEFEND THE GLORIOUS GAME THAT IS OUR LIVELIHOOD
Puosu
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
7038 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-01-13 19:40:40
January 13 2009 19:38 GMT
#59
On January 14 2009 03:05 Ver wrote:
These stupid imbalance judgments are overwhelming.

If you say ZvT is imbalanced, there is exactly one person to blame (well two if you consider ancient BW). No, it's not Blizzard, and no, it's not the mapmakers.

iloveoov

He alone made Terran this good. The early 2 rax acad cc. The updated 14cc and 1 rax cc. The mech builds. All are because of him. It is these builds that make T>Z, not anything else. In the two years of Zerg glory, Savior held everything together with an equal skill in improving the Zerg side of the matchup. But he never created a more effective setup against 1 rax cc and instead kept on winning for himself due to his tactics.

So why hasn't Zerg held their own? Because Jaedong is not Savior. JD is an incredible player, full of passion, and has arguably the best set of mechanics in history. But aside from the very recent trend of Queens, he has done nothing to change ZvT, so Zergs keep playing the same way they did over 2 years ago while Terrans have been continually updating their builds. 2 hatch muta is a bandaid fix and has already lost its supremacy thanks to oov's mech. With this in mind, it is only logical that T is winning so much over Z and any map where Z is equal or better against T is absurdly imbalanced (i,e Medusa).

But anyway there are a whole other set of reasons why Zergs are sucking: they've forgotten a lot of what Savior taught them. I'll be expanding on some of these points in an upcoming article.

About Zero: his ZvT is REALLY good. Up until Jaedong started with queens I considered it better than JD himself (temporarily of course since JD was semi-slumping). His games against Flash and Sea showed the first signs of a Zerg with the intelligence level of Savior, and up until he made the Yellowish move to all-in FBH whe he had the game won he would have trumped 3 of the best curret TvZers in decisive fashion. But sadly he lacks in every other matchup and got stuck in the worst group possible in the MSL (no terrans + Bisu). When/if he will break out remains to be seen, but his ZvT is for real.

oh please please never leave the strategy forum

you are awesome.
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10939 Posts
January 13 2009 19:39 GMT
#60
On January 14 2009 04:11 d_so wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2009 03:56 Velr wrote:
On January 14 2009 03:52 d_so wrote:
jaedong/july for zvt.



.... Has July won anything recently except against FBH?


YO BUT HIS QUEEN ALMOST TOOK THAT CC???????????

neways point taken smart guy



:D... Sorry to crush your world
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