EPTOn January 11 2010 23:07 Warrior Madness wrote:
Why is this?
Why is this?
Becaaaauseeee....... Elo ratings do not depend on streaks at all?
[spoiler] ELO Peaks - Page 31
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
Becaaaauseeee....... Elo ratings do not depend on streaks at all? | ||
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TwoToneTerran
United States8841 Posts
On January 11 2010 23:07 Warrior Madness wrote: And JD's ZvZ SHOULD be about as strong as flash's TvT, and his ZvT as strong as calm's  . Here's what I don't get though. Flash's TvT run, 22-0, is alllmoosstt as impressive as Oov's ZvT run. However, even though flash went 22-0, his TvT elo is 2314. In contrast, Jaedong's best ZvZ win streak is "only" 10 in a row but his ZvZ elo 2341, eclipsing both flash's (and Oov's for that matter) elo peaks. Why is this? How is 22 straight wins less impressive than 18 straight wins? | ||
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Niton
United States2395 Posts
On January 11 2010 23:07 Warrior Madness wrote: And JD's ZvZ SHOULD be about as strong as flash's TvT, and his ZvT as strong as calm's . Here's what I don't get though. Flash's TvT run, 22-0, is alllmoosstt as impressive as Oov's ZvT run. However, even though flash went 22-0, his TvT elo is 2314. In contrast, Jaedong's best ZvZ win streak is "only" 10 in a row but his ZvZ elo 2341, eclipsing both flash's (and Oov's for that matter) elo peaks. Why is this? Because Jaedong went 9-1 / 10 for a long time due to the nature of ZvZ. He held an 80% winrate for what, a year? http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/details.php?type=players&id=211&part=games&vs=Z&league=any&map=any&from_year=2008&from_month=6&from_day=1&to_year=2009&to_month=6&to_day=1&action=Update Jaedong's ZvZ was just as dominant as Flash's TvT is now, it's just that even back then, a player playing well with the BO advantage was enough to take Jaedong down if he wasn't playing at 100%. Jaedong hasn't even gotten worse - the average skill level of Zerg has just risen so that more and more players are capable of taking him down when they get the advantage. edit: wow, lots of posts that all said what I said better  | ||
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DamageControL
United States4222 Posts
On January 11 2010 23:18 TheBB wrote: Becaaaauseeee....... Elo ratings do not depend on streaks at all? ........ what are you saying? Because of the way Elo's work the only way to get a really high elo is with streaks | ||
Hot_Bid
Braavos36402 Posts
On January 12 2010 00:02 DamageControL wrote: ........ what are you saying? Because of the way Elo's work the only way to get a really high elo is with streaks he's saying WWWLWWW vs WWWWWWL is the same | ||
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dukethegold
Canada5645 Posts
On January 12 2010 00:02 DamageControL wrote: ........ what are you saying? Because of the way Elo's work the only way to get a really high elo is with streaks The dude is right. One loss from being defeated by a low ELO player can kill your ELO completely. For example, Jaedong dropped around 60 ELO after being defeated by Crazy-hydra in the PL, leaving Flash as the only person sitting above 2300. But Flash destroying Best in the MSL only gave him 9 ELO boost. ELO is all about streaks, which makes 2400 quite jaw dropping. Edit: NVM, Hot_Bid posted before me. BTW, Hot_Bid, do you ever plan to update the OP? | ||
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Cpadolf
Sweden1199 Posts
On January 12 2010 00:02 DamageControL wrote: ........ what are you saying? Because of the way Elo's work the only way to get a really high elo is with streaks They are only indirectly dependent on streaks, because when you reach a really high level you will drop by a lot if you lose even one game, but if you started your career with a 30-0 win streak you would not reach the same ELO as someone who is 80% over the course 100 games, even if he would never get more than 4 wins in a row (most likely anyway, it also depends on the ELO of everyone you defeat, so you could set up a theoretical situation where the guy with the 30-0 streak get's the higher ELO). About Jaedong's ZvZ. He was 82.42% over the course of about 38 months, with a record of 75-16 (this is discounting his first 12 games, where he went 7-5, though of which only 1 was a "counted" game, and every game past 09-06-30, after which he is "only" about 61.5%). Also, between 07-12-10 and 09-06-07 he went 48-7 (87.27%). So it's not hard to see how he had a higher ELO peak in ZvZ than Flash had in TvT, considering that before his 22 win streak (15 if you count GOM) he was "only" 67%, and had lost 6 of his last 9 games (which should have put a significant dent in his ELO before the streak started). | ||
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On January 12 2010 00:47 InFiNitY[pG] wrote: seeing as Flash just dropped 16 points for one loss I have a feeling that 2409 is a peak that will last for quite some time if not forever I'm not so sure. He gets to bash Kwanro and Movie next. A 3-0 is a possibility in both matches, especially seeing as Flash skips proleague to prepare. If all goes well, Flash might go 6-0 and gain the points back. | ||
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TwoToneTerran
United States8841 Posts
On January 12 2010 01:02 Scorch wrote: I'm not so sure. He gets to bash Kwanro and Movie next. A 3-0 is a possibility in both matches, especially seeing as Flash skips proleague to prepare. If all goes well, Flash might go 6-0 and gain the points back. Well, Kwanro is probably worth more than 5 points a win on average, so if he 3-0's him he will probably break his peak. If he 3-0s both him and Movie then Flash'll probably be deep into the 2420s. | ||
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
On January 12 2010 02:57 TwoToneTerran wrote: Jaedong's ZvZ was never AS dominant as Flash's TvT was for the past 3/4ths of a year, because he never lost whereas Jaedong did lose, but Jaedong's ZvZ was similarly as strong for longer. Assuming Flash keeps his TvT up to 8 and 9 game winstreaks like Jaedong's, his vT Elo will assuredly pass up Jaedong's vZ Elo. Well, Kwanro is probably worth more than 5 points a win on average, so if he 3-0's him he will probably break his peak. If he 3-0s both him and Movie then Flash'll probably be deep into the 2420s. Jaedongs ZvZ is the most dominant matchup of the past three years. I'll take that over a span of half a year any day. | ||
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TwoToneTerran
United States8841 Posts
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On January 12 2010 00:17 dukethegold wrote: The dude is right. One loss from being defeated by a low ELO player can kill your ELO completely. For example, Jaedong dropped around 60 ELO after being defeated by Crazy-hydra in the PL, leaving Flash as the only person sitting above 2300. But Flash destroying Best in the MSL only gave him 9 ELO boost. ELO is all about streaks, which makes 2400 quite jaw dropping. Edit: NVM, Hot_Bid posted before me. BTW, Hot_Bid, do you ever plan to update the OP? Yeah, it's jaw dropping, but not because Elo is all about streaks. It's not. The reason Jaedong lost 60 points after losing to Crazy-Hydra was not because he was on a streak, it was because his rating was much higher. He would have lost the same amount of points if he was on a massive losing streak, too (assuming the same ratings). It's true that Elo and streaks are correlated, but this is a different thing altogether. | ||
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7mk
Germany10157 Posts
On January 12 2010 03:16 TwoToneTerran wrote: I like how you say half a year to try to downplay that he was practically undefeated (one game if you count Iris) for essentially 8 months straight. Jaedong's ZvZ has the longest stretch of dominantion, Flash has the most dominant match up anyone's ever seen and it's hard to deny that. Jaedong was amazing but never "not lose in 22 games" amazing. Let's not forget that ZvZ is not the same match up as TvT though. Remember the time before Jaedong when everyone said that ZvZ was like a coin flip depending on who has the BO advantage? | ||
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De4ngus
United States6533 Posts
On January 12 2010 03:16 TwoToneTerran wrote: I like how you say half a year to try to downplay that he was practically undefeated (one game if you count Iris) for essentially 8 months straight. Jaedong's ZvZ has the longest stretch of dominantion, Flash has the most dominant match up anyone's ever seen and it's hard to deny that. Jaedong was amazing but never "not lose in 22 games" amazing. You can't really compare ZvZ to TvT like that. Build order advantages are soooooo hard to overcome in ZvZ. You can't play it "safe" all the time like you can with TvT. Edit: Lol I fail. Soooo slow. | ||
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Lebesgue
4542 Posts
Before WL he has OSL and MSL finals. Unfortunately Movie's elo is only 2139. So he would need to go for a clean sweep not to lose points compared to his current elo. And then needs to win MSL... But as long as he will sit at around 2395 after these two finals I think he will have a good chance to do it. | ||
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bentnormal
112 Posts
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Holgerius
Sweden16951 Posts
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Black Gun
Germany4482 Posts
On January 19 2010 22:34 Holgerius wrote: Unless Flash fails completely against JD I think he's gonna crush his ELO peak during WL. He's the type of player who really excels in a format where raw skill and freestyling are the key attributes. i think he will already crush his elo peak against jd. jd is at 233x elo atm, so wins against him should give flash plenty of points. if he 3-1´s jd, he will definitely break 2409. | ||
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xtinct
Norway12 Posts
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