|
On November 11 2025 01:58 Kraekkling wrote:the 40% and the 63% are just their respective win rates in this matchup in ASL if we're trying to make general statements about the matchup, we need to consider how good the players are in this matchup if anything, their respective head-to-head count is the worst metric to evaluate the matchup as a whole, since it will be influenced the most by things like personal style and relative strengths and weaknesses Show nested quote +
what are you trying to prove? Did Snow play perfectly? No, of course not. Most of us know that. Hardly anyone argues against that.
I'm just getting triggered by TMNT replies. stopping now
happends to me too  + almost with everyone this why i said in the past how toxic he is.
|
I mean, FlaSh is right that SnOw prioritizes his time on micro over macro and optimizes his builds poorly by a professional standard. He is correct that it hurts him vs Zerg because you can't micro your way into wins with reavers like you can in other match ups. That is almost undeniable.
But he keeps pointing to "optimize like Bisu" and "compare it to Bisu", whom most consider the gold standard in PvZ, and Bisu still lost to soma making it like... at least the 3rd ASL in a row he's been eliminated by a Zerg. We have 25+ years of data of professional PvZ. I dunno why we're arguing against Zerg having a slight advantage vs Protoss. It's just stupid at this point.
|
On November 11 2025 02:53 sas.Sziky wrote:
We talking the same game Bonyth ? i am talking about the lowest pylon like a bad pylon ( that was not the second ) that pylon was why not above the nexus and then he can buld easily cannon for the correct postion.
I would have to re-watch the game to make sure, but I was talking about the 2nd pylon that he made during the ling attack. Don't remember when that 3rd pylon on the bottom side was built.
|
There's a spon-series done by Starcast recently with Mini and Soma. Bo7.
I won't spoil it but people should watch that to understand the massive contrast compared to the finals. The games were played in such a way that Protoss always had a chance to win from the get-go. Sometimes, (partial spoiler) that goes really bad. However, the sense you get from watching it is not of imminent P loss but rather a continuous knife-fight with some hard-counters.
Some P players have not adopted this mindset and will continue on making that awful winrate look even worse if they do not approach this imbalanced match-up differently.
|
I still believe overwhelmingly that skill matters more than any imbalance in PvZ. You saw in say the ro8 that Snow dealt with Effort pretty easily. Same with Bisu vs Larva. There was a skill gap there that shows the imbalance is not that bad.
When it comes to say Snow vs Soma who are pretty equal in skill level, Soma maybe gets a 2-3% bump due to being Z. So maybe Snow has to comparatively play a little better and get a little luckier. But overwhelmingly these series still come down to who plays better on the day. I can't think of any series in recent ASLs where a P has lost simply because of the matchup imbalance. Z has an advantage but it's not so significant that it trumps players skill levels/execution on the day.
I think there's still a lot to be explored in the ZvP meta too. Protosses have pretty much been playing the same way since Bisu figured out the quick expo + cair build. There might still be some meat on the bone Ps haven't quite figured out yet.
|
On November 11 2025 01:58 Kraekkling wrote:
the 40% and the 63% are just their respective win rates in this matchup in ASL
if we're trying to make general statements about the matchup, we need to consider how good the players are in this matchup
if anything, their respective head-to-head count is the worst metric to evaluate the matchup as a whole, since it will be influenced the most by things like personal style and relative strengths and weaknesses
You have to use the right stats though. I don't know why people keep making these misleading and distracting arguments. Just use the right methodology and we're saved from these back and forth replies.
The most important factor when choosing these stats is time (only recent data should count, their level 6 years ago has no relevance now). The second is scope (limiting to ASL only creates huge problems because of sample size and bracket luck, that gives you absurd conclusions like Bisu is a better PvT player than PvZ).
Their respective PvZ and ZvP win rates in 2025 (all games) are 55.6 and 60.7%. Yes Soma still has the higher win rate but nowhere near the 23% gap you presented.
I mean if their relevant win rates are actually 40 and 63% then I'd agree that the skill gap is too big to bring imbalances into the discussion. That's like comparing Snow's 69% in PvT to JYJ's 50% TvP, in which you have the best PvT player vs a tier-3-or-something TvP player and PvT imbalance has no business in the matter. In this case we just have the best (or top 2) PvZ player vs the best (or top 2) ZvP player.
So like you said even you believe PvZ is not perfectly balanced, then the 5% win rate gap between them may be (partially) explained by the unfairness of the matchup right?
|
On November 11 2025 03:09 sas.Sziky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2025 01:58 Kraekkling wrote:the 40% and the 63% are just their respective win rates in this matchup in ASL if we're trying to make general statements about the matchup, we need to consider how good the players are in this matchup if anything, their respective head-to-head count is the worst metric to evaluate the matchup as a whole, since it will be influenced the most by things like personal style and relative strengths and weaknesses
what are you trying to prove? Did Snow play perfectly? No, of course not. Most of us know that. Hardly anyone argues against that.
I'm just getting triggered by TMNT replies. stopping now happends to me too + almost with everyone this why i said in the past how toxic he is.
I'm not sure if this is another language problem for you but that's not how you define "toxic".
All I have ever done is presenting facts and logics to back up my well articulated arguments. I have very little interest in turning the discussion into personal matters. You may not like the conclusions I make but that's where you should stop.
If you want toxic, it's someone like Eonzerg whose keeps delivering personal insults, memes, over-the-top sarcastic comments, and false accusations (because he can't remember things well or get facts right).
On November 11 2025 00:59 sas.Sziky wrote:He saw hydras 8:13-14. Third cannon on time (8:20 if a pylon is in the right place he can made fourth and fifth cannon 8:21 and sixth around 8:25) instead fourth was late 8:28 . ( also he made 2 cannon on his main but thats okay ).so he made pylons on natural on bad position or was late the right pylon so then late 4-5-6 cannon with bad position. if i would have to guess because the pylon was on wrong postion and he cant build on time cannon on the good position he hesitated and basically when he saw the hydras and his late pylon he already know ok i lost this. So yes those cannon was late and was on the bad position in this situation. + Also i think he not canceled the sixth corsair then it could have been +1 cannoni mean if he has good pylon 
Re this point yeah I already acknowledged, his sim city is a mess that's why he can't build cannons faster. But that's not the point Flash made (Flash just implied it's a reaction time problem).
|
On November 11 2025 07:57 Bonyth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2025 02:53 sas.Sziky wrote:
We talking the same game Bonyth ? i am talking about the lowest pylon like a bad pylon ( that was not the second ) that pylon was why not above the nexus and then he can buld easily cannon for the correct postion. I would have to re-watch the game to make sure, but I was talking about the 2nd pylon that he made during the ling attack. Don't remember when that 3rd pylon on the bottom side was built.
What does it matter when? anyway 7:45 for no reason with good eco and etc but it is not matter he just forgot build a pylon above the nex.
|
On November 11 2025 01:52 Kraekkling wrote:second game on Dominator, he scouted the hydra bust hours in advance look at how slowly he makes cannons, doesn't even stop probe production still, his cannons were almost on time. if he just pulls probes and gains a few seconds, he is safe and ahead. even the casters thought he was safe instead he died to 12 hydras
This situation was already addressed in details in my post in the ASL thread:
https://tl.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=28318044
In short, Snow made the exact defense that Bisu made one week earlier against Soma in the same spawn location. In both cases, at the time the busts start, Zerg has 29-30 army supply and Protoss has 18 army supply. In both cases 4 cannons are ready made, but Bisu only has 1 more warping in, while Snow has 3, plus 1 more zealot.
I guess that's why casters thought he was safe probably? Because he made the same amount of defense (slightly more actually) that kept Bisu alive, so his response must be more or less standard right? Now there must be something wrong there obviously because he lost, but like Bonyth said, what's the point of picking imperfections in Snow's play? And why are we not doing the same for Soma (I can already count him letting the probe walk right in his main despite the lings guarding in front of the nat)?
|
i am ot sure about one thing, who started the personal matters . But will be honest i dont even know who is you so it was my mistake how i did it. But any case if i started then i have to say a sry for that.
|
thing with SnOw is that if you look at his online best of sets, of which most are missing from eloboard data because they are chinese and starcast exclusive, he tends to get away with his sub-optimal optimizations against zerg. This seems to or might have, up until a certain points in time, have reinforced his micro centric decision making flowcharting. Even Soulkey falls into this same category of play because he too is known for not using some of the sweaty optimization methods such as full mineral boosting, he does partial, or F5 at start for faster selection. Soulkey is well optimized on most things, but tends to be focused on micro and in the moment decision making. Both SnOw and Soulkey were for two years the best two players using a similar style. In comes SoMa who copied all of Soulkey's decision making, and then injected his own hyper fixation on optimization. Soma is the most well optimized zerg, much like how JyJ used to be the most opimized terran when he became champion(spoke to several pros who told me JyJ would always be ahead in minerals and supply compared to everyone, and have perfect building placement and timings back then.) SoMa might be heralding the merging of two styles into one.
|
I mean: Its hard to really look at Snows micro centric pvz and evaluate how it might've gone against Soma, because thats not even what he showed up and used. He didnt use micro centric builds. Was he trying to pull out some reaver harass and it didnt work? Was he microing his little heart out? No.
|
On November 12 2025 01:34 Ze'ev wrote:
I mean: Its hard to really look at Snows micro centric pvz and evaluate how it might've gone against Soma, because thats not even what he showed up and used. He didnt use micro centric builds. Was he trying to pull out some reaver harass and it didnt work? Was he microing his little heart out? No.
He did not get the chance to. Usually SnOw wins his PvZ with really good tradinf with his death ball of units. He never got the chance to play like that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/0ymK8qkp/Screenshot-20251110-174105-You-Tube.jpg)
