|
On January 31 2019 20:16 iFU.pauline wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2019 19:09 molotow[eef] wrote:
I recently opened the tab in bw which displays the race win-percentages per map. Some of the numbers:
HBR - toss have won 40% of their games.
Aztec- toss have won 40% of their games.
CB - toss have won 40% of their games.
FS - toss have won 41% of their games.
How would those numbers match the - widely as gospel seen - assumption that P is not at a disadvantage up until the top-top level? There is something else to take into consideration for statistics, it's the number of players. I believe there are more protoss than zerg and terran, therefore it's bound to lower their winrate. To have reliable stats we would need to know how many players there are in each race.
Really, it would? If you consider each player to be distributed on the ladder randomly then the more players would make your playerbase better conform to the curve, which would seem to result in being closer to a 50% win rate.
This assumes, of course, that the protoss players have an equal talent distribution as the terran and zerg players.
|
On January 31 2019 19:09 molotow[eef] wrote:
I recently opened the tab in bw which displays the race win-percentages per map. Some of the numbers:
HBR - toss have won 40% of their games.
Aztec- toss have won 40% of their games.
CB - toss have won 40% of their games.
FS - toss have won 41% of their games.
How would those numbers match the - widely as gospel seen - assumption that P is not at a disadvantage up until the top-top level?
It says that toss have won '40% of games', not '40% of their games', big difference and given blizzards track record with recording stats in RM I doubt thats even accurate.
|
Oh yeah, that would make sense, whenalso in the German version it says "Haben 40% IHRER Spiele gewonnen", which translates to "have won 40% of THEIR games".
|
It doesn't exist.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/WaGgHv3.png)
|
Except that terrans already have 4 players in the r016, which is 1 off their perfect divide; you wouldnt expect a race, even an imbalanced race, to dominate the r016 statistically, especially after one of their top players dropped out of the tournament entirely. If flash were here, terran would have their exact 'half' of the proportion of remaining players. Sharp and mind are favoured to get out of their groups, if lasts wrists hold up, he will get out as well. If flash were here, he would of gotten out, obviously. There could be 3 terrans in the r08, which is huge, if things were a bit different we could reasonably of expected four. A bunch of newbs, chokers, and retireers returning, failing in early stages, does not constitute evidence that terran isnt imbalanced.
|
On February 01 2019 00:37 bovienchien wrote:It doesn't exist.
Terrans dominate: "It's the maps and Flash is too good!"
Terrans underperform: "See, tesagi doesn't exist!"
|
On February 01 2019 01:20 Dazed. wrote:
There could be 3 terrans in the r08, which is huge
|
On February 01 2019 03:24 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2019 01:20 Dazed. wrote:
There could be 3 terrans in the r08, which is huge Well, one more and they're half, so theres no way to construe it as anything other than quite significant.
|
On February 01 2019 04:22 Dazed. wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2019 03:24 Jealous wrote:On February 01 2019 01:20 Dazed. wrote:
There could be 3 terrans in the r08, which is huge Well, one more and they're half, so theres no way to construe it as anything other than quite significant.
Let me switch it around on you. "One less and they're less than a third, so under-represented. There absolutely is a way to construe it as anything other than significant." Have you taken stats courses?
Let's say we have a drawer with 8 red socks, 8 blue socks, and 8 green socks. We draw socks at random until we have eight socks. What are the possible configurations for how many socks we have?
R/B/G
8/0/0, 0/8/0, 0/0/8
7/1/0, 7/0/1, 170, 071, 107, 017
611, 161, 116
620, 602, 260, 062, 206, 026... so on and so forth. A lot of combinations, right?
However, it should be obvious that it is less likely to select 8 red socks than it is to select, say, 4 green, 2 blue, and 2 red socks. I'm assuming you know basic probability, so I won't go into the math here. Take my word for it that this fact wouldn't change even if we had 100 of each sock (which is far more than there are representatives of each race in the current Brood War scene that are viable Ro8 candidates).
Similarly, it is obvious that the most likely configuration of randomly chosen socks will be 332. This means that out of 8 players in the Ro8, a distribution of 3 Terran 3 Protoss and 2 Zerg is about as close to perfect balance as we could have represented. Or 2 Terran 3 Protoss 3 Zerg. Or 3 Terran 2 Protoss 3 Zerg. In fact, even 4/2/2 is not that unlikely of a random draw.
Point being, what you're trying to argue is "quite significant" is actually completely insignificant from a statistical and probability standpoint.
|
Yeah, Jealous is right. Most past ASLs had 4/2/2 or 3/3/2 distribution (I'd imagine this is same for MSL and OSL overall). Only the first one had 5/2/1 distribution so just looking at that, I would say you need one race to make up 5/8 or more of the ro8 to call it unlikely (and since improbable does not mean impossible, it still does not necessarily suggest imbalance).
|
I made a compilation of Ro8/Ro4 appearances for every race (too much free time hehe). This is for ASL1-6, KSL1-2 and also VNSL (as ASL0)
Ro8:
Terran: 27
Flash(6), Last(6), Sharp(5), Mind(4), Sea(2), Ssak(2), Mong(1), Leta(1)
Zerg: 20
Soulkey(4), Hero(4), Larva(3), JD(2), Effort(2), Zero/Shine/Killer/Action/Miso(1)
Protoss: 25
Rain(5), Bisu(4), Best(3), Shuttle(3), Snow(2), Mini(2), Guemchi(2), Free/Stork/Jaehoon/Horang2(1)
For Ro4:
Terran: 13
Flash(4), Last(4), Sharp(3), Sea(2),
Zerg: 12
Soulkey(3), Hero(2), Effort(2), JD(2), Shine(1), Larva(1), Zero(1)
Protoss:11
Rain(3), Bisu(3), Shuttle(2), Best(1), Mini(1), Snow(1)
Finals is 8/6/4 and wins 4/3/2
|
On February 01 2019 07:50 ortseam wrote:
I made a compilation of Ro8/Ro4 appearances for every race (too much free time hehe). This is for ASL1-6, KSL1-2 and also Ro4 includes that single SSL season
Ro8:
Terran: 24
Flash(6), Last(5), Sharp(4), Mind(3), Sea(2), Ssak(2), Mong(1), Leta(1)
Zerg: 18
Soulkey(4), Hero(4), Larva(3), JD(2), Effort/Shine/Killer/Action/Miso(1)
Protoss: 22
Rain(5), Best(3), Bisu(3), Shuttle(3), Snow(2), Mini(2), Guemchi/Stork/Jaehoon/Horang2(1)
For Ro4:
Terran: 13
Flash(4), Last(4), Sea(2), Sharp(2),Mind(1)
Zerg: 12
Soulkey(4), Hero(2), Effort(2), JD(2), Shine(1), Larva(1)
Protoss:11
Rain(4), Bisu(2), Shuttle(2), Best(1), Mini(1), Free(1)
Finals is 8/6/4 and wins 4/3/2
Doesn't seeding complicate this, guaranteeing an effective double count for certain players?
In other words, once Flash wins, he is guaranteed to also appear in Ro8 or whatever, so therefore he is immediately counted twice.
|
I just compiled the stats, they don't necessarily mean much in terms of balance. Also you have to think about player pool, things like military service, players not playing tournaments by decision (for example Bisu has only played 3 of all 9 tournaments), Not to mention SSL was 8 players who qualified with ... fanvoting, so maybe I should remove those from Ro4(becomes 12/10/10 with Effort/Free/Soulkey/Mind having one less appearance, at least I didn't count the Ro8)
Edit: I will actually remove SSL and add VNSL, since Koreans counted that as "ASL S0" when calculating the group tiers and top 4 was seeded into ASL1
|
Edit2: Effort and Shuttle failed to make it out of the groups they made for themselves, so it's not always guaranteed 
(yeah that was supposed to be an edit, not a quote)
|
On February 01 2019 00:37 bovienchien wrote:It doesn't exist.
the map makers have decided that this is P season ^^
|
On January 31 2019 05:05 Dazed. wrote:
edit: similar question about zvp, balanced or not, is the best design a matchup where protoss play a game of 'catch the all in' half the time [and almost all pvz cheeses are out of meta and hurt by current map design] ?
The big problem is that zerg cheeses are not really all-ins, they can try to hydra-bust, succeed in a great percentage of tries, and when they don't, they can still transition to middle-late games easily. Of course your question was rethorical, certainly the MU could be better designed, so to speak.
|
My theory is things may be the way they are because they are the way the tournament runners want.
In other words, So long as the racial distribution in Ro16, Ro8, Ro4 are good, they are overall happy.
They are more concerned with the racial distribution of each tournament than who wins. It's less of a problem if Flash wins every tournament than if there are tons of mirror matches, cause overall, mirror matches are what people like watching the least.
So, if the current balance leads to good distributions during most of the tournament (which it does), life is good. The fact that Terran wins something like triple the tournaments Protoss wins is less important.
Also want to note that different stages of tournaments are very different in how they play out. I.e. Balance is different in a prepared Bo5 than in pools full of first-to-one cheeses.
|
Tesagi does exist! It's because we, terran master race, are the apex organisms in the Galaxy, while Zergs are the rags we wipe the floors, and Protoss are a funny space humpty dumpties that even have no mouth.
|
what the heck is a humpty dumpty??
|
On February 01 2019 17:42 hitthat wrote:
Tesagi does exist! It's because we, terran master race, are the apex organisms in the Galaxy, while Zergs are the rags we wipe the floors, and Protoss are a funny space humpty dumpties that even have no mouth.
Lore-wise, Terrans should be the least dominating of the three races. Protoss are clearly the more technical advanced humanoid race and the Zerg Swarm has nearly unlimited amounts of troops, the ability to evolve and adapt into any environmental and strategical nessecity, plus ultimate control by the overmind/kerrigan.
So, in short i think lore-wise zerg and protoss are at pari, both also representing two different aspects of the master race, xel naga, while terran is perhaps most agressive in space colonisation but technological the least developed.
(In my consideration im leaving the sc2 plotline out intentionally, because i consider it not canonic due to various reasons)
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
